Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mining enterprises indicated that they had lowered zinc concentrate TCs in May due to market conditions and a sharp rise in sulphuric acid prices, but the quoted lead concentrate TCs for concentrates produced and sold during the same period were not adjusted. A few suppliers holding lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the starting payable or payable indicator for copper and zinc contained in lead ore, but did not directly lower their lead concentrate TC quotations. Regarding imported ore prices, smelters maintained mainstream quotations of -$150 to -$130/dmt. Since late April, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio has continued to decline, losses on imported lead concentrates have widened, and smelters showed little enthusiasm for negotiating and purchasing. Regarding the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates, as silver prices have yet to break out of their sideways range and macro influences remain complex, the precious metals trend remains unclear. Both buyers and sellers remained cautiously on the sidelines, and the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates across various silver content levels remained stable.

Today, SMM quoted premiums for the SGE Ag(T+D) at a range of TD -20 to 0 yuan/kg, with an average of -10 yuan/kg. The spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver ag2606 futures contract widened, leading to greater divergence in market quotations. Geopolitical disturbances resurfaced last night as the US and Iran exchanged fire again in the Strait of Hormuz, causing silver to retreat after rapid rise. Downstream purchase willingness remained low, and most suppliers reported poor transactions. During the morning session in Shanghai, mainstream quotations from suppliers of GB-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of -20 to 0 yuan/kg against TD. Some non-registered GB-standard silver ingots deviated from mainstream quotation premiums. Major smelter silver ingot quotations were mostly at parity with TD as the basis widened, but downstream acceptance was low with only a small volume of transactions. In Shenzhen, a few non-delivery brands maintained larger discounts. Overall spot market transactions remained sluggish today.

The rally that propelled gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could pick up again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices ticked higher on Thursday.

This week, silver ingot market premiums remained at a slight discount. Although spot premiums did not continue to decline WoW, consumption remained relatively weak, and silver ingot social inventory continued to accumulate.

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61. [Key Data] Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance. Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver. Bearish: US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well. China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate. Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include: May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. May 12: US April CPI data. In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. [Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

[SMM Precious Metals Market Flash] On the afternoon of May 6, the US dollar index fell below the 98 level, and silver prices were buoyed by this, maintaining a firm trend.

Today, SMM's premium quotations against the SGE Ag(T+D) ranged from TD -20 to -5 yuan/kg, with an average of -12.5 yuan/kg. Some traders had not yet participated in quotations after the Labour Day holiday. Overall market purchase willingness was low, with both offers and inquiries on the weak side. During the early Shanghai session, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots posted mainstream quotations at premiums of -20 to -10 yuan/kg against TD. Major smelter silver ingots were mostly quoted at parity, but transactions were difficult to conclude. Some enterprises lowered premiums to facilitate deals. Downstream consumption remained sluggish, and bank warrant floor prices also saw discounts widen to around TD -20 yuan/kg. In the Shenzhen market, a few non-delivery brands maintained larger discounts. Overall market trading was thin today.

Silver price forecasts across key horizons have been sharply cut by UBS, driven by subdued investment demand, weaker industrial usage, and climbing mine production.

[Price Review] This week, Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced, with the US-Iran standoff continuing to escalate: on April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; on April 29, the US explicitly prohibited its individuals and entities from paying such fees to Iran, while warning non-US entities that payment would face significant sanctions risks; on April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons was the bottom line for negotiations, stating that communication with Iran was underway via phone. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainties over the global economic outlook, and precious metals remained under pressure. On the US Fed front, the April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence persisting—one member advocated for an interest rate cut while three members opposed releasing easing signals. Powell broke decades of industry convention by announcing that after stepping down as Fed Chairman, he would remain as a governor until early 2028; he explicitly stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the independence of the US Fed's monetary policy-making while undermining the institution's own stability. Whether the conflict risks further escalation will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, exerting significant impact on silver price trends. Industrial demand side, sluggish downstream consumption persisted, and as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises opted to stockpile small quantities on dips. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 29, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rose to 62. [Key Data] Bearish: Middle East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, with the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz transit fees intensifying. Core negotiation demands were completely opposed, and the deadlock over waterway blockade and military confrontation remained unresolved, pushing up sticky inflation expectations and reinforcing the US Fed's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. The US Fed's April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence hitting a 34-year high. The overall stance was neutral-to-hawkish, with no clear interest rate cut signal released. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, continuously suppressing silver valuations. Inflation stickiness in the US and Europe exceeded expectations. US March CPI rose to the highest YoY and MoM since 2024, and the eurozone March core CPI final reading was unexpectedly revised upward. Persistent inflation further weakened the necessity for central bank easing. US labor market resilience exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 posted the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations, completely eliminating market bets on an emergency US Fed interest rate cut. China's silver industrial demand remained weak, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and transaction discounts kept widening. Bullish factors: US March PPI data significantly missed market expectations, with YoY, MoM, and core PPI gains all well below forecasts, releasing signals of marginal inflation easing and preserving room for subsequent Fed interest rate cuts. Dovish divergence within the Fed persisted, with one committee member advocating an immediate rate cut at the April meeting; some officials still believed multiple rate cuts remained possible this year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading; stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven demand for silver. Key data and macro events to watch next week include: May 1: Eurozone April CPI preliminary reading, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI. May 6: US March JOLTs job openings, April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. [Price Forecast] Recent precious metals market trading logic continues to revolve around re-escalating Middle East geopolitical concerns, inflation expectations driven by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations, and Fed Chairman transition and internal divergence. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish; as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises chose to stockpile small quantities on dips. The upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory has yet to improve, and the market expects mainstream spot transaction discounts to remain within a narrow discount range relative to the SGE TD price. Silver prices are expected to remain under pressure with volatile trading next week.

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.