[Price review] Silver prices stabilized and rebounded this week (6.15-6.18) after a continuous early decline. Easing US-Iran tensions saw both domestic and overseas futures hold up well, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. Market attention was focused on the Fed’s FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the fourth straight hold, but the latest dot plot showed a generally more hawkish shift among officials—the majority expected no rate cuts this year, and nearly half saw further rate hikes as possible. The statement noted inflation remains above target, and rising energy costs and geopolitical risks add to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term goal and will not pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting, silver dipped briefly but then recovered on technical buying as expectations of further rate hikes did not materially increase. On the geopolitical front, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. In industrial demand, premiums for mainstream quotations of national standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW; mainstream quotations stayed at parity to slight premiums, with most trades concluded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Downstream consumption turned sluggish as silver prices rebounded slightly. On the inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their stock, while the willingness to sell was weak given locked long-term contracts and reserved export quotas. Additionally, some upstream smelters started routine maintenance. Social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw overall destocking. As for the gold/silver ratio, the LBMA gold/silver ratio was around 67 as of June 17. [Key data] Bearish: The June FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50-3.75% unchanged, but the dot plot showed the majority of members expected no rate cuts this year and some supported further hikes, indicating an overall hawkish Fed stance. Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation remains clearly above the 2% target, monetary policy will stay restrictive, and clear rate-cut signals are unlikely in the near term. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with unemployment around 4.3%, dampening market expectations for rapid easing. Bullish: A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. Peru's energy crisis persists, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Already 12 large mines have adopted staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline 5-8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, offering some floor support to silver prices. [Near-term Focus] June 20: US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary; June 26: US Q1 GDP final; June 27: US May core PCE price index; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the progress of strait reopening. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hold up well next week. Ongoing attention is needed on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with further strikes if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement. After the Fed’s June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path temporarily subsided. Although the Fed’s overall tone remains hawkish, expectations for additional rate hikes have not increased. Silver’s previous bearish factors have been largely released. However, US Treasury yields will continue to exert some pressure on silver, and prices may move sideways. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand-based purchases while pushing for lower prices. Selling pressure on low-priced spot cargo has eased, and social inventory of spot silver ingots has been destocking overall. Yet sentiment has not fully recovered. Mainstream spot transaction discounts/premiums are expected to remain within the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract. A shift toward higher premiums in the short term appears unlikely.

The price spread between the SGE TD price and the SHFE August contract remained in the 40-50 yuan/kg range this week. As of Thursday, premiums of mainstream quotations for standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market rose to a range from parity to a slight premium, with transaction quotes mostly landing within the SGE TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg range. Silver prices plunged this week due to macro headwinds and the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Following the plunge, downstream inquiries became relatively active, while upstream smelters showed low willingness to sell due to the low prices. On the inventory side, downstream consumption recovered WoW as prices continued to fall, and social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen underwent overall destocking.

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.

[Price Review] This week (6.1-6.4), silver continued to fluctuate downward in the doldrums, with the overall price center shifting lower, as both international and domestic futures weakened in tandem. On the macro front, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 98.4% probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only a 1.6% probability of a rate cut; for September, the probability of maintaining the current rate stood at 71.1%, with a 27.8% probability of a rate hike. Data-wise, US May ADP employment exceeded expectations, with private sector payrolls increasing by 122,000, the largest monthly gain since January last year, with key focus on tomorrow evening's US May non-farm payrolls data. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remained unresolved; Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly and nearing a deal signing, while the maritime blockade on Iran may extend through September; the Israeli Prime Minister indicated tactical differences with the US but aligned strategic objectives, while the Israeli military stated there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon. Industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD remained in a slight discount range, but the discount narrowed further WoW, with market quotations gradually moving toward parity. Most transaction prices fell within a discount of 20-0 yuan/kg against the SGE TD contract. As silver prices declined during the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly WoW, with spot cargo selling pressure at low levels somewhat easing, though overall consumption remained sluggish. Inventory side, downstream consumption and investment sentiment remained cautious, and a notable improvement is unlikely in the near term. Social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 3, the BMA gold/silver ratio widened further from 62.3 to 63.8 this week. [Key Data] Bearish: Warsh was officially inaugurated as Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale, with COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions continuing to shrink. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency declared through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is estimated to have declined by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap still in place. [Recent Focus] June 5: US May non-farm payrolls report June 12: US May CPI data Key focus: US Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the implementation of production restrictions at Peruvian mines. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows next week. Silver prices have yet to break free from the macro headwind environment, and the earlier supply-side speculation narrative has largely faded. Key focus will be on tomorrow evening's non-farm payrolls data, US Fed officials' speeches, and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. In terms of operations, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, pending clear stabilization signals. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remained relatively cautious. Overall consumption recovered slightly as silver prices stayed at short-term lows. Low-level spot selling pressure in the market eased somewhat, but the overall market remained sluggish. Investment sentiment showed no obvious rebound either. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate slightly. The mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain within the range of a 10-0 yuan/kg discount to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

This week, the price spread between SGE TD price and SHFE August contract remained in the range of 40-60 yuan/kg. As of Thursday, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market still maintained a slight discount against TD, but the discount narrowed further WoW, with market quotations gradually moving toward parity. Most transaction quotations fell within the range of 20-0 yuan/kg discount against SGE TD. Silver prices overall remained under macro pressure. As silver prices declined during the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly WoW, but overall remained sluggish. Some suppliers also had limited shipments due to tax invoice issues, leading to low willingness to purchase and sell. Inventory side, downstream consumption and investment sentiment remained cautious, and significant improvement is unlikely in the short term. Social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly.

Today, SMM's 10:00 AM pricing for SGE Ag(T+D) was 17,676 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted in the range of TD-15 to 0 yuan/kg, averaging -7.5 yuan/kg. Data side, US May ADP employment exceeded expectations, with private sector payrolls increasing by 122,000 in May, the largest monthly gain since January last year. Geopolitics side, US-Iran conflict intensity escalated, Lebanon rejected part of Israel's ceasefire proposal, and Iran's foreign minister stated that if Israel invaded Beirut, Iran would resume war. Spot market side, silver prices remained under pressure amid macro uncertainties. Today's discount range was largely consistent with yesterday's. Transactions for national-standard silver ingots were mostly concentrated in the TD-15 to 0 yuan/kg range. Overall offers leaned toward higher premiums, but apart from some small-volume deals, transactions at higher premium quotes were relatively difficult. In the Shanghai region, early morning quotes were mainly concentrated in the range of TD-15 yuan/kg to slight premiums. Suppliers had limited willingness to sell at low prices, and market quotes gradually moved toward parity. Overall, silver prices were under pressure in the short term, the sideways-moving pattern remained unchanged, and the market remained cautious amid repeatedly swinging sentiment.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Moved Sideways, Spot Discounts Held Steady] SMM reported on June 2 that macro sentiment fluctuated, and silver prices saw small fluctuations. Spot market discounts continued, with increased shipments at the beginning of the month, and transactions leaned toward the lower end.

[SMM Daily Review: Expectations of Wild Swings in Silver Prices Heat Up, Spot Discounts Persist with Sluggish Trading] SMM reported on June 1 that silver prices saw a slight correction, spot discounts persisted, the weak supply-demand dynamics on both sides remained unchanged, and market trading was sluggish.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Fluctuated with Narrowing Spot Discounts, Market Awaited Next Month's Consumption Guidance] SMM reported on May 29 that silver prices rebounded slightly, spot discounts narrowed, supply and demand were evolving toward a tight balance, month-end trading was sluggish, and attention turned to next month's consumption performance.

This week, the price spread between the SGE TD price and the SHFE August contract mostly hovered around 50 yuan/kg. As of Thursday, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD maintained a slight discount range, but the discount narrowed WoW. Most transaction quotations narrowed to a discount of 30-0 yuan/kg against SGE TD. Some downstream enterprises, lacking input tax invoice allowances, could accept small quantities at higher quotations, with overall transactions leaning toward the average of low-end prices. Overall market consumption remained sluggish. Some suppliers also had low willingness to sell due to tax invoice issues and the approaching month-end, presenting a sluggish trading atmosphere on both sides. The discount for a few non-delivery brands in the Shenzhen area also narrowed in tandem. Inventory side, the decline in silver prices did not significantly boost downstream consumption. Market sentiment was extremely cautious, and social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate.