[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Dual Pressure from Policy and Demand, Secondary Aluminum Weekly Operating Rate Pulls Back] ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. On the cost side, high-level support, combined with the tightening of reverse invoicing and expectations for production cuts at some enterprises, limits the downside room for prices; however, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, and inventory remains in an accumulation cycle, which will continue to suppress upside room for prices. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and the further impact of policies on the scale of production cuts on the supply side.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone Overall Product Price Center Shifted Slightly Upward, Weekly Market Trading Atmosphere Was Subdued] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market shifted slightly upward, with the mainstream transaction range at 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotations: monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; monomer enterprises in north-west China lowered their online store prices by 800 yuan/mt to 15,100 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations in other regions were mainly at 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Currently, mid- and downstream enterprises were primarily drawing down inventory, so overall market transactions this week were limited to small volumes of just-in-time procurement.

[Bulls Cut Open Interest, Silicon Metal Prices Weakened; Polysilicon Prices Remained Stable Overall]: Spot prices were mostly stable this week, with prices of certain silicon grades edging down slightly. As of May 14, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Futures market sentiment cooled. In terms of total open interest, it began to decline sharply from Tuesday as funds took profits and exited, causing futures prices to pull back. On Thursday (May 14), total open interest in silicon metal stood at 450,000 lots, down 85,000 lots or 16% from Monday. The most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,655 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 455 yuan/mt or 5% from Monday, as the silicon market returned to fundamentals-driven logic. Transaction side, downstream users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment amid the price fluctuations, with transactions mainly driven by rigid restocking demand.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Fluctuated Higher in Night Session, Cost Support Kept Short-Term Bias to the Upside] The most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 contract opened higher overnight and then fluctuated upward. It opened at 23,605 yuan/mt in the night session, reaching a high of 23,680 yuan/mt and a low of 23,480 yuan/mt. It closed at 23,595 yuan/mt in the night session, up 115 yuan/mt or 0.49% from the previous trading day.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.1 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were relatively stable overall, with extremely limited order signing in the market. Some crystal pulling plants showed low-price purchase willingness, but top-tier manufacturers still held the floor above 35 yuan. With cost setting imminent, manufacturers had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Wafer: Market 18X wafer prices were 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.00-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. Recently, a top-tier enterprise completed bulk transactions of 210R wafers at 1.02 yuan/piece. Currently, except for 210N, the other two sizes had already accepted the previous round of price increases, and subsequent trends would depend on downstream cell price movements.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Demand Suppression and Cost Support, ADC12 Prices Move Sideways] On Monday, the ADC12 market was generally stable with slight rise. Most enterprises, influenced by the rebound in aluminum futures and rising aluminum scrap raw material costs, raised their quotes by 100 yuan/mt accordingly.

Silicon Metal: The silicon market trended stronger after the Labour Day holiday. This round of futures strength was primarily driven by macro and capital momentum. Silicon enterprises hedged in batches on rallies, cargo rights gradually shifted to futures-spot traders, and rigid demand provided support, with spot prices passively following the upward trend. From an industrial perspective, the expected increase in silicon metal supply in June carries relatively high certainty, which suppresses the sustainability of subsequent price rises. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market has intensified. Going forward, key areas to watch include shifts in capital logic, changes in macro sentiment, and the pace of production resumption on the industrial side.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Primary Aluminum Dropped Sharply, Market Showed Strong Willingness to Follow the Decline] Yesterday, the ADC12 spot market fluctuated downward, with mainstream enterprises generally lowering quotes by 200-300 yuan/mt, and the market sentiment to follow the decline was strong. On one hand, futures pulled back sharply, exerting strong downward pressure on the spot market, and enterprises actively lowered their quotes; on the other hand, downstream consumption remained weak, further undermining market confidence. Currently, although the cost side provides some support for prices, under the influence of insufficient demand and pessimistic market expectations, ADC12 prices still face certain downward pressure in the short term, and the market continues to remain in the doldrums.

[Capital-Driven Silicon Metal Prices Trend Stronger After Holiday, Spot Price Center Shifts Upward]: The silicon metal market trended stronger after the Labour Day holiday, with the most-traded futures contract breaking through resistance levels to rise above 9,000 yuan/mt. As of the morning of May 7, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW. Futures prices continued to trend stronger after the holiday, and silicon suppliers raised spot offer prices multiple times in small incremental probes, with east China #553 silicon offers rising above 9,300 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the SI2609 contract closed at 9,080 yuan/mt on Thursday, up 285 yuan/mt WoW, with an intraday high touching 9,180 yuan/mt. Low-priced sources in the silicon metal market decreased or disappeared, and the transaction center shifted notably higher compared to pre-holiday levels as just-in-time procurement provided support. This round of strengthening was mainly driven by macro and capital momentum, with no substantive bullish support from the industry fundamentals for the time being. From late April to early May, silicon enterprises increasingly hedged in batches on price rallies and sold against the basis, with cargo ownership gradually shifting to futures-spot traders. After futures were pushed higher, spot liquidity issues tended to emerge easily. While futures remained elevated and fundamentals were weak, rigid demand provided support, and spot prices passively followed the upward trend.