[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?

[Silicon Metal Market Stalemate, Prices Consolidate at Lows]: On the supply side, silicon metal production in June stood at 358,400 mt, up 8% MoM. In July, production ramp-up in Sichuan and Yunnan will become the main driver of supply growth, with July production expected to increase 9% MoM. The fundamental logic of both supply and demand growth and relatively heavy supply pressure remains unchanged. With no news disturbances from policy or macro liquidity, and in the absence of unexpected events, silicon metal prices continue to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt. On the futures market, the most-traded contract consolidated at 8,400 yuan/mt. With strong support below prices, there is limited downside room, while upside bullish drivers are insufficient. The silicon metal market was stagnant and consolidating at lows. Wafers: In the wafer market, 18X wafer prices are at 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Module Hold-Price Sentiment Edges Up, Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable] Last week, mainstream transaction prices in China changed little, but the price spread between high and low prices remained large. EXW prices from enterprises competing for orders have recently started approaching 0.65 Yuan/W, though trading volume was limited. Mainstream tax-inclusive delivered prices in China stayed above 0.7 Yuan/W, and current quotations from top-tier players are still relatively high. The market exhibited a situation where half are holding prices firm while the other half are selling at low prices. Currently, high-efficiency distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules are quoted at 0.731 Yuan/W, 0.736 Yuan/W, and 0.739 Yuan/W, respectively; and centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7185 Yuan/W, 0.7385 Yuan/W, and 0.729 Yuan/W, respectively.

[Sichuan-Yunnan Silicon Enterprises’ Operating Rate Increase Puts Silicon Metal Market Under Pressure]: On the supply side, the rainy season production resumptions at silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have pushed operating rates higher. From a supply-demand balance perspective, the silicon metal supply growth outpaces demand growth in June-July, leaving theoretical industry inventory in a buildup state. Fundamentals are weak, and coupled with a lack of recent positive news to provide a boost, the silicon metal market lacks sufficient upward momentum and has limited downside support from costs. Overall, prices are in the doldrums within a narrow range.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt yesterday, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract hovered around 8,500 yuan/mt. Silicon metal prices continued to move sideways in a narrow range. In recent days, the market has seen no new news disruptions, leading to a stalemate in price changes. Increasing supply put prices under pressure in the short term. Wafer: Market prices for 18X wafers were 0.86-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were 0.96-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were 1.16-1.2 yuan/piece. Smaller factories have already begun to see transactions at lower prices. 18X wafers are under the most severe pressure, and the high end of the overall price range is trending further downward.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports Diverge in May, Prices Fluctuate amid Narrowing Price Difference between A00 Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2608 contract opened at its session high of 23,650 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls' momentum gradually faded, and prices fluctuated and pulled back overall. The contract dipped to a session low of 23,490 yuan/mt, then edged up slightly toward the close to finally settle at 23,545 yuan/mt, edging down 105 yuan/mt from the settlement price.

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quotation for N-type recharging polysilicon is 32-34.2 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remain generally weak. A few large-volume orders are currently under negotiation, with the market watching for subsequent outcomes and policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 183mm wafers stand at 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.20 yuan/piece. The low-end prices of 183mm and 210N wafers also show a downward trend, widening the price range across all wafer sizes. Top-tier players are holding prices, while smaller enterprises have concluded deals at lower prices.