[SMM Analysis: What Impact Does the Middle East Situation Have on the Recycled Copper Raw Materials Market?] Recent turbulence in the Middle East has once again rattled global commodity markets. However, zooming in on the recycled copper raw materials segment, the market has remained remarkably calm. This article examines the trade structure and supply-demand dynamics to explain why the Middle East situation has, in practice, a relatively limited impact on Asia's scrap copper market.

Recently, geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has emerged, bringing a certain degree of impact to the overall overseas PV market. Below, we provide an in-depth analysis of the current Middle East PV market from various perspectives:

[SHFE Tin Midday Review: Overseas Mining Bottlenecks Advance, SHFE Tin Contract Retreats from Highs Amid Stable Supply Expectations]

[Geopolitical Tensions Intensify SHFE Zinc Rises During Daytime]: The Most-Traded SHFE Zinc 2604 Contract Opened at 24,590 Yuan/mt. After Opening, SHFE Zinc Fluctuated and Rose, Reaching a Low of 24,425 Yuan/mt Early in the Session and Peaking at 24,880 Yuan/mt Towards the End, Finally Closing Up at 24,850 Yuan/mt.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 480 to 320 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 400 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction price was 101,690-102,390 yuan/mt, with an average of 102,040 yuan/mt, up 260 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SHFE Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: SHFE aluminum consolidates narrowly in night session, downstream resumption slow, aluminum prices fluctuate] The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at the million-mt level and pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk aversion sentiment, aluminum price volatility may intensify. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, raw material supply disruptions, and further macroeconomic disturbances impacting aluminum prices, and prudently address operational and investment risks brought about by supply chain fluctuations. Seasonal fundamental pressures remain prominent. On the supply side, new domestic and overseas aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, with the liquid aluminum conversion ratio currently low. On the demand side, post-holiday processing material production is showing a steady recovery pace. However, under the current situation where seasonal supply exceeds demand and some goods are stockpiled at railway stations, it is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventory will peak above 1.35 million mt after the holiday, setting a five-year high, which will be a key factor suppressing price rises. Overall, before and after the Chinese New Year, aluminum prices showed a trend of first declining then rising, and it is expected that SHFE aluminum will maintain a relatively strong consolidation pattern in the short term.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

A joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran, triggering unrest in the Middle East, has become the biggest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at the million-metric-ton level and simultaneously driving up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may intensify. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalating conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply disruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by supply chain fluctuations.

SMM March 2 Update: Today, in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 280 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 340 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,290 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,115 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Inventory in Guangdong has increased for six consecutive days, mainly due to slow recovery in downstream consumption. With rising inventory and rebounding copper prices, downstream buyers were not active, and suppliers had to lower premiums to ship goods, resulting in moderate overall trading. Today, the purchasing sentiment for electrolytic copper in the Guangdong region was 2.4, down 0.1 from the previous trading day, and the shipping sentiment was 3.1, up 0.1 from the previous trading day. (Historical data can be accessed by logging into the database.) Overall, with rising inventory and rebounding copper prices, downstream buyers were not active, and overall trading was moderate.

Against this backdrop, the value of energy storage and grid infrastructure becomes particularly prominent. If conflict persists, the core objective of energy systems will shift from cost optimization to systemic resilience. Distributed energy, microgrids, and storage possess an insurance-like function; their value becomes more visible under extreme conditions. Even if elevated raw material prices increase project costs, higher policy priority may provide long-term support.