[Silicon Metal Price Center Remained in the Doldrums]: This week, the silicon metal market stayed weak, with the transaction center for some silicon metal grades edging lower. As of April 2, SMM east China prices were oxygen-blown #553 silicon at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; 441# silicon at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; and 3303# silicon at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract remained weak, with the SI2605 contract closing at 8,300 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 435 yuan/mt WoW. Spot declines were narrower than futures prices, and the advantage in supplier shipments shifted from silicon enterprises to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market. During the week, market prices were under pressure, while procurement volume from some downstream users and export traders increased, with transactions in some grades remaining moderate.

This week, the overall second-life battery market for lithium battery Grade B products remained stable, while prices for warehouse A and Grade A products rose. On the cost side, lithium carbonate first increased and then declined, with evident fluctuations; nickel sulphate edged down slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. On the supply side, battery cell capacity continued to be released, the EV sector carried out orderly stockpiling, demand in the ESS sector remained robust, and order shipments stayed at a high level. On the demand side, following the implementation of the new power battery regulations on April 1, the exclusive concept of second-life application was removed and uniformly brought under comprehensive utilization supervision, with strict control over the circulation of non-compliant products; the market showed structural divergence, with average demand from the EV sector, but strong demand for compliant orders in energy storage and outside China. In terms of product-grade price spreads: quotations for leading Grade A products with warranties approached those of new battery cells, while circulation of recycled materials and Grade B products remained weak and prices held flat, as they struggled to meet compliant procurement standards.

[SMM Weekly Silicone Review: Silicone Product Prices Rebounded, While Overall Market Transactions Remained Sluggish] This week, the transaction range in China’s silicone DMC market was 14,200-14,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW, with overall market transaction prices seeing a phased rebound.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Drove Magnesium Prices Steadily Higher This Week, Breaking 17,500] This week, China's magnesium industry chain as a whole held up well. On the raw material side, the dolomite market remained stable. Part of the suspended output in core production areas was supplemented by supply from surrounding regions, while stable operating rates at downstream primary magnesium smelting plants supported demand and the supply-demand balance. Affected by rising crude oil prices, subsequent delivered prices may rise slightly. The magnesium ingot market stayed firm, and both production and sales in major producing areas were strong. Geopolitical disruptions pushed up energy expectations, prompting producers to hold back sales and tightening supply. Rigid downstream demand, export order lock-ins, and a boost from industry conferences jointly drove magnesium prices higher. Offshore quotations were adjusted in line with ex-factory prices, and although bidding-based shipment prices were low at the beginning of the week, they rebounded later, while new orders declined. Magnesium powder remained firm, supported by higher magnesium ingot prices, while increased operating rates at magnesium plants ensured supply and both domestic and overseas demand recovered. The magnesium alloy market also stayed strong, with stable operating rates at top-tier enterprises, new capacity coming on stream, and downstream end-use demand being released, supported by ample orders and a supply-demand balance.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers maintained relatively good operating rates, and coke supply increased steadily. Downstream rigid demand for coke still existed, coke producers' shipments were relatively smooth, and there was no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal output increased, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, futures declined recently, and end-use demand remained weak, weakening market sentiment and reducing steel mills' purchase willingness. In summary, after the coke price hike, market sentiment weakened, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Hold Up Well, and Market Inquiry Activity Increases] The Pr-Nd oxide market as a whole continued to hold up well. Under the impact of expectations of tighter supply and pronounced fluctuations in futures prices, upstream suppliers kept raising their offers, while low-priced cargoes tightened rapidly, pushing Pr-Nd oxide prices up to 722,000-728,000 yuan/mt.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices retreated after a rapid rise and fluctuated downward overall. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to pull back, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate largely moving in sync. The futures market saw wild swings, with the price range of the most-traded contract fluctuating down from 170,000-173,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 154,300-162,800 yuan/mt. Intraday volatility was significant on each trading day, open interest continued to decline, and capital participation weakened. Market transactions remained sluggish, with upstream and downstream psychological price levels diverging further. Upstream lithium chemical plants saw stronger sentiment to hold prices firm and withhold sales this week, with relatively weak willingness to sell spot orders, and quoted prices generally staying above 164,000 yuan/mt. Downstream material plants, however, saw long-term contract volumes and customer-supplied volumes arrive successively at the beginning of the month, and, coupled with restocking through dip-buying at the start of last week, held relatively sufficient inventory at the beginning of the month. Purchase willingness was relatively weak, with only just-in-time procurement maintained, and the psychological purchase price level was basically around 155,000 yuan/mt. Market inquiries were moderate, but actual transactions were relatively mediocre. This week's price decline was mainly driven by the combined impact of multiple factors: First, supply side, repeated market rumors surrounding mines in Zimbabwe and Jiangxi continued to ferment, prompting some funds to close positions and exit, which became an important force pushing prices lower. As prices retreated from highs, earlier bulls showed stronger willingness to take profits; meanwhile, open interest continued to decline, reflecting increasingly cautious market sentiment. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased uncertainty from the macro perspective, also putting some pressure on prices. Capital flows were characterized by continued position reductions and rollovers into deferred-month contracts. Futures open interest continued its declining trend this week, with position reductions of varying degrees on each trading day. It is worth noting that open interest between the 2605 contract and the 2609 contract has already shifted, indicating that funds are gradually moving to deferred months and that the market's willingness to participate in the short-term market has declined. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, continued attention is still needed on the recovery of shipments from Zimbabwean mines and on when Jiangxi mines will resume production; demand side, the intensive launch of new car models in April is expected to drive marginal demand improvement. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

SMM News, Apr 2: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center moving higher than the previous day. Affected by elevated aluminum prices, shipping sentiment was stronger than buying sentiment, while end-user downstream purchase sentiment was weak and spot cargo circulation was relatively ample. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to the SMM A00 aluminum average price. Today, the east China market shipping sentiment index was 3.43, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.01, up 0.01 MoM. Aluminum futures prices remained elevated, but in the central China market, traders were overall more bullish than bearish. Although downstream orders were not enough to support excessive stockpiling, traders were relatively active in purchasing for hedging purposes. After the initial stage, shipments from sellers declined, while higher-bid purchasing increased, driving market quotes and transaction prices all the way up. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to the central China price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipping sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.44, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 2,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong as the main source of the inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

SMM, April 2: Today in Guangdong, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 200 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 96,365 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 96,260 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline, marking the 13th consecutive drop and falling below 50,000 mt, the lowest level for the same period in recent years. Stimulated by the dual factors of continued inventory declines and lower copper prices, suppliers actively held prices firm, while downstream buyers also took the initiative to replenish stocks as copper prices fell, and overall trading improved from yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.52, up 0.03 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.68, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, both inventory and copper prices fell, suppliers actively held prices firm, and overall trading was better than yesterday.