[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

SMM, July 28: In metals markets: Base metals generally rose in overnight trading both domestically and overseas, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel both declining—LME nickel fell 0.23%, SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. LME copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, while LME zinc and LME tin both rose over 0.7%—LME zinc gained 0.77% and LME tin gained 0.72%. Other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.7%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals generally fell overnight, with stainless steel down 0.82%, HRC, rebar, and iron ore all down over 0.3%—HRC fell 0.33%, rebar fell 0.36%, and iron ore fell 0.34%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.04%, while coke fell 0.65%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, while COMEX silver fell 0.36%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.18% and SHFE silver fell 0.72%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM July 28: Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in Jan–Jun; Electronics-Related Sectors Saw Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, against the backdrop of stable industrial production growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, accelerating 1.5 percentage points from Q1. The faster revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By the three major categories, profits in mining and manufacturing rose 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 ppt and 1.0 ppt from Q1; profits in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size surged 71.7% YoY, boosting the overall industrial profit growth by 8.8 ppt. By sector, driven by factors such as favorable demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, profits in the non-ferrous sector jumped 99.4%, boosting overall industrial profit growth by 4.7 ppt. Propelled by rising prices of petroleum-related products, the petroleum processing sector turned from a loss to a profit YoY, while profits in the chemical sector grew 67.8%. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.08% overnight to 101.53. Citadel Securities expects the US Fed to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility in the fight against inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-bp hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh's repeated commitment to restoring price stability while signaling that policymakers no longer rely on signaling every policy move in advance. "Markets may again be underestimating the degree of the Fed's hawkish shift." This week's hike would "decisively end the era of forward guidance" while underscoring the Fed's independence. US President Trump on Monday commented on the Fed, saying that Chairman Warsh is very good but he has to deal with the committee's issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. On interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10) Citi traders are betting that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, even though the swaps market assigns over a one-third probability to a 25-bp hike. Citi’s global head of short-term rates trading, Akshay Singal, said the bank is taking on July FOMC meeting contracts based on “high conviction”—positions that will pay off if the central bank stays on hold. Currently, the swaps market sees a nearly 40% probability of a 25-bp hike this week. This comes after escalating Middle East tensions triggered wild swings in oil prices and US Treasury yields, fueling inflation worries. “We remain strongly forecasting that the Fed will hold rates steady,” Singal told Bloomberg News. He added that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “has made it very clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data tell us there’s no need for the Fed to hike now.” Singal said Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance has also added to market uncertainty. “The market is currently lacking clear guidance,” Singal said. “We expect a healthy and robust debate, but ultimately rates will be left unchanged.” (Wall Street CN) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 36.3%. By September, the probability of rates staying on hold is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 25.8%. (Jin10) Other Currencies: Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing said in a report that while markets have priced in slightly more than 50 bp of rate hikes from the Fed, BOE, and ECB by mid-2027, policy paths could diverge next year. If the Iran war ends, energy prices will retreat and domestic economic fundamentals will become the main driver of monetary policy. However, underlying inflation pressures in the UK and eurozone are weaker. The situation in the US is different, and fiscal policy also remains relatively loose. Shearing said it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the tightening expectations priced in for the ECB and BOE, though the Fed may resume tightening before long. (Jin10) According to people familiar with the matter, the Swiss National Bank plans to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before potentially starting to hike. This view is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks. They noted that the recent softening of the Swiss franc against the euro and the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the eurozone are also factors shaping this expectation. The people said that if the economic outlook faces fresh shocks, implementing negative rates remains an option, but they stressed that this is not the current baseline scenario. They added that zero rates have not seriously hurt the profitability of the Swiss banking sector. The SNB kept rates unchanged at its June meeting and expects to keep them on hold until the end of next year. (Jin10) Macro Front: Today, data releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the May FHFA House Price Index MoM, the May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (NSA), the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: Both oil benchmarks plunged overnight, with WTI falling 8.29% and Brent falling 6.9%. The Middle East geopolitical risks that had been driving the relentless surge in oil prices showed clear signs of cooling. US President Trump confirmed that he would suspend a new round of strikes against Iran, leaving a window for diplomatic negotiations, and the market rapidly unwound the “war premium” previously priced in. Market analysis suggests that the sharp sell-off was not driven by a sudden deterioration in demand but rather a concentrated release of the risk premium that had accumulated rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz transit risks and escalating US-Iran military tensions. However, several institutions also warned that the current situation remains far from genuine de-escalation, and oil prices could still rebound sharply if military action escalates again. (Wall Street CN) Although market sentiment has improved markedly, analysts generally believe it is still too early to say that Middle East risks have passed. The Wall Street Journal noted that the US suspension of military action has increased the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis and boosted market expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will eventually normalize. However, key variables including Red Sea shipping security, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Iran nuclear issue, and the future passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, meaning international oil prices will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Reuters also pointed out that the market’s focus this week will remain on whether US-Iran contacts can achieve substantive progress. If negotiations fail and military action re-escalates, the risk premium just released from the energy market could quickly return to oil prices. (Wall Street CN) US President Trump said on Monday that the US has collected more than $13 billion from Venezuelan crude oil sales since US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a cross-border operation. “Venezuela has brought us $13 billion? I think it’s more than that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan to visit a General Motors plant. “We’ve more than made back the cost of that war many times over.” Trump claimed the money was used to keep Venezuela running. “We’re making a lot of money—billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela.” (Financial Times)

SMM July 27 News: Metal Market: At the midday break, domestic base metals were mixed. SHFE copper rose 0.31%, while SHFE aluminum edged lower. SHFE lead fell 1.11%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin rose 1.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.13%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.19%. Lithium carbonate’s most-traded contract rose 0.86%. Silicon metal’s most-traded contract rose 0.24%. Polysilicon’s most-traded futures contract rose 0.15%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.33%, and HRC rose 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.62%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.87%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.49%, while LME aluminum fell 0.27%. LME tin and LME zinc each rose within 0.5%. LME lead edged lower. LME nickel fell 0.32%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.42% and COMEX silver rose 1.1%. In the domestic market: SHFE gold rose 0.87%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. In addition, at the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.31%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.22%. At the midday break, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 3.02% to 2,750 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:40, July 27: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, cooling geopolitical tensions temporarily; oil prices tumbled, and inflation and rate-hike expectations eased, while precious metals rebounded. The spot market sustained parity deals, with the weak supply-demand pattern persisting. …… 》Click for details Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in 1H; Electronics-Related Sectors Posted Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, amid steady manufacturing growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points from Q1. Accelerating revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By major sector, mining and manufacturing profits grew 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 and 1.0 percentage points from Q1; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of the raw material manufacturing sector above designated size rose 71.7% YoY, boosting overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 8.8 percentage points. From an industry perspective, driven by improving demand for non-ferrous metal products such as copper and aluminum, profits of the non-ferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, boosting overall profit growth by 4.7 percentage points; driven by higher prices of products in the petroleum industry chain, the petroleum processing sector swung from losses to a profit YoY, and profits of the chemical sector rose 67.8%. The PBOC conducted 325.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 398.5 billion yuan of reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of MLF matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.26 to 101.22. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of unchanged rates through September is 19.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 25.2%. Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's July CBI Distributive Trades Survey balance, the US June durable goods orders MoM, and the US July Dallas Fed New Orders Index. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 4.97% and Brent down 3.93%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased slightly, and oil prices fell sharply at the open on Monday as traders assessed Middle East supply risks. With the US-Iran conflict spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, Brent crude has surged about 30% this month, briefly breaking above $100 per barrel last week. The conflict, now nearing the end of its fifth month, has heightened concerns about a global inflation shock as the global fuel market has lost idle capacity while the war drives up prices, and refined product prices have jumped. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM nickel July 27 news: Macro and market news: (1) Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran on July 24 (after 13 consecutive nights of strikes), mainly due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude opened sharply lower on Monday, dropping 5% to around $92, while WTI fell to around $84.7. (2) Fed meeting on July 29: the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Spot market: On July 27, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,000 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fell in early trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict hit a pause, crude oil prices fell sharply, the cost support logic from sulfur weakened, and nickel prices pulled back. The Fed’s July FOMC meeting will be held on July 29, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract in the short term is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.

Nickel prices extended their upward trend this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract posted a "five-day winning streak" on its daily chart, decisively breaking through the 133,000 yuan/mt level and holding above it, with a weekly gain of over 2%. LME nickel rose in tandem to $17,500/mt, hitting a near one-month high. The drivers behind the nickel price rally remained the "Indonesia export control policy + Strait of Hormuz sulfur crisis + continuous LME inventory destocking." In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 131,440 yuan/mt this week, up 2,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan refined nickel weakened continuously this week, falling to 1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel was quoted at a discount between -300 and -500 yuan/mt. As futures prices continued to rebound, downstream purchasing interest remained low and was limited to just-in-time procurement. Overall spot market transactions were relatively sluggish. On the macro front, geopolitical tensions remained elevated this week. The US military launched another strike on Iran, and President Trump stated he was "seriously considering" restarting large-scale combat operations against Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, the difficulty of restoring Middle East sulfur supply will increase. Policy expectations for the US Fed's July FOMC meeting became clearer. The latest CME FedWatch Tool data showed a 65.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, versus a 34.7% chance of a 25bp hike, with a consensus forming for staying pat in July. The suppressive pressure from the macro front on non-ferrous metals marginally eased. Inventory side, as for inventories, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 130 kt, reflecting a buildup of approximately 1,800 mt WoW. LME's five consecutive days of destocking this week offered a positive signal, though absolute levels remained at historical highs. If the destocking trend persists, the foundation for a nickel price rebound will become more solid. The US-Iran conflict continues and could escalate, leaving sulfur supply risks in place, and the quantitative magnitude of supplementary RKAB quotas remains the key factor behind the subsequent nickel price trend. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Products and Costs Edge Up in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Stable This week, stainless steel product prices and production costs edged up in tandem, while steel mill smelting profits remained basically stable overall. Based on calculations for 304 cold-rolling, the profit margin this week was 2.15% when accounting for raw materials at current prices and 1.11% when accounting for inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still maintain certain smelting profits. Nickel-based raw materials side, high-grade NPI prices were largely stable this week. Although SHFE nickel and SS futures held up well overall during the week, the current traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel meant steel mills' purchase demand for NPI remained persistently weak, with very few actual transactions concluded recently. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, NPI prices remained steady this week. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price for China's 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI remained stable at 1,132.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week, lifted by stronger SS futures driving spot prices higher. However, the temporarily stable high-grade NPI prices narrowed scrap's economic advantage. The current traditional consumption off-season persists, downstream demand is sluggish, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly transacting on a need-to basis. Under the dual constraints of weak demand and diminishing substitution benefits, upward momentum for stainless steel scrap was insufficient. In the short term, it will maintain largely stable consolidation supported by futures resilience, with limited upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/mt, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt. Chrome-based raw materials side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices operated stably this week. Although ferrochrome supply remains relatively ample currently, coupled with demand pulling back amid off-season production cuts for stainless steel, recent high-cost ferrochrome...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Edge Lower and Pull Back, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Weaken and Quotes Hold Steady On July 24, SMM reported that SS futures showed an overall pattern of declining and pulling back. Nonferrous metals futures broadly pulled back, with SHFE nickel and SS futures weakening and pulling back in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,770 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the weakening of SS futures and the concentrated release of earlier demand, market inquiries became less active, overall transactions weakened, and purchases were mainly need-based. However, with steel mill guidance prices remaining stable and spot prices having not previously followed the uptrend in futures, spot quotes continued to hold steady. Most-Traded SS Futures Contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 traded at 14,690 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood in a range of 330-730 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotations in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, a confluence of favorable macro and industry factors supported nickel and stainless steel futures, which consolidated on a strong note. On the macro front, US inflation expectations pulled back, while the US-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to unsettle market risk sentiment. On the industry front, the earlier limited growth in Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore supplementary quotas...

SMM July 24 News: Metal Market: As of midday, domestic base metals fell broadly. SHFE copper fell 1.21%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both fell within 0.5%. SHFE lead fell 0.82%. SHFE tin fell 1.59%. SHFE nickel rose 0.2%. Additionally, casting aluminum most-traded futures fell 0.58%, alumina most-traded rose 0.37%. Lithium carbonate most-traded fell 0.74%. Silicon metal most-traded edged down. Polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.67%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.8%, rebar fell 0.68%, HRC fell 0.3%. Stainless steel fell 0.91%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract was flat at 1,282 yuan/mt, coke most-traded contract edged up 0.05%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper rose 0.43%, LME aluminum, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.5%. LME lead was flat at $1,887/mt. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 0.44%, COMEX silver fell 0.88%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.65%; SHFE silver most-traded fell 4.82%. Additionally, as of midday, platinum most-traded futures fell 4.94%, palladium most-traded futures fell 5.68%. As of midday, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.65% to 2,807.5 points. As of 11:40 on July 24, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,085 yuan/mt, down 1,215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,000 yuan/mt, down 1,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic side: [State Grid's fixed-asset investment in H1 up 12.6% YoY] Today, we learned from State Grid Corporation of China that in H1, State Grid completed fixed-asset investment of over 310 billion yuan, up 12.6% YoY. Among them, construction of 15 ultra-high-voltage (UHV) projects and 37 pumped-storage power stations is accelerating. Meanwhile, investment in new energy grid connection projects continues to increase. As of end-June, the new energy grid-connected installed capacity in State Grid's operating area reached 1.55 billion kW. (CCTV) [PBOC net withdrawal of 361.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.02 to 101.42. As the threat of escalating war in Iran drove up oil prices, US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, and markets expected the Fed could raise rates as soon as next week. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points on Thursday to around 4.34%, its highest since early 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a year-to-date high, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, just below its highest level since 2007. As Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked a commercial vessel for the first time in months, Brent crude oil has been slowly rebounding toward $100 per barrel. This rise continues to pressure the US Treasury market and has led traders to increasingly believe that the Fed under Warsh will raise rates soon this year. (Jinshi Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 34.7%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 17.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 57%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp hike is 25.4%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell sharply last week, indicating that the labour market remains stable and that Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said on Thursday that initial claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared with expectations of 212,000. Thursday's report was the latest signal of sustained stability in the labour market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the decline was more due to a shrinking labour force rather than job growth. The US labour market is exhibiting an unusual balance: limited labour supply, slow job creation, and limited layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at historically low levels. This situation has led a growing number of Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, which remains well above the 2% target, rather than express greater concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP) Data wise: Today’s data releases include Germany's August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Germany July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Services PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Services PMI, and US June New Home Sales Annualized Total. Also worth watching: the AMD Advancing AI conference was held in San Francisco on July 22-23; Intel’s Q2 earnings were released after the US stock market close on July 23. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI up 0.01% and Brent down 0.07%. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to intensify. The Houthis announced this week that they had attacked a Saudi oil tanker, formally turning the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea into a new frontline of conflict, putting global oil supply into a “dual chokepoint” predicament. Market analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remained obstructed and a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait became reality, oil prices risked further surging to $120 or even higher. Rapidan Energy Group President and former White House official Bob McNally said, “The scale of the second round of military conflict will exceed the first, posing enormous risks to shipping and energy infrastructure.” (Wallstreetcn) ANZ: It maintained its forecast of $92/barrel for Brent crude at end-Q3 2026, reflecting an uneven rebound in Persian Gulf oil flows. If regional supply disruptions intensify and market buffers weaken, Brent crude prices could rise to $120/barrel. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel July 24: Macro and Market News: (1) PBOC announcement: To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct MLF operations worth 500 billion yuan via fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bids, with a tenor of 1 year. (2) US President Trump said on the 23rd that he is "seriously considering" resuming large-scale military operations against Iran. Spot Market: On July 24, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 132,350 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,450 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in the night session, and by the morning close had modestly recovered to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventory continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz once again triggered sulfur supply disruption concerns, and short-term nickel prices are expected to hold up well.