[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,685 yuan/mt, after which bears added to their positions and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, hitting a low of 23,440 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 23,455 yuan/mt, down 275 yuan/mt, or 1.16%. Trading volume fell to 39,416 lots, and open interest increased by 10,738 lots to 91,209 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Uncertainty in Demand and Trade Outlook Casts a Shadow over Zinc Prices] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, but was suppressed by the 5-day daily average moving average. Overnight, zinc prices were in the doldrums, trade...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals in a Tug-of-War, SHFE Zinc Price Maintains Fluctuating Trend] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average acting as resistance above and the lower band of the Bollinger Bands providing support below. Progress was made in the China-U.S. trade negotiations...

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: Market Continues to Focus on Trade Negotiations, LME Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,706/mt. After opening, LME zinc rose steadily, reaching a high of $2,730/mt during the midday session, before pulling back from highs and declining all the way. It touched a low of $2,692/mt near the end of the session, eventually closing down at $2,704/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.28%. Trading volume decreased to 9,128 lots, while open interest fell by 521 lots to 213,000 lots···

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: Tariff Uncertainty Resurfaces, LME Zinc Rally Halts]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,692/mt. After opening, LME zinc trended downward, reaching a low of $2,658/mt before rebounding and rising, hitting a high of $2,711.5/mt at the close. It ultimately closed up at $2,711.5/mt, gaining $18.5/mt, or 0.69%. Trading volume decreased to 11,422 lots, while open interest fell by 64 lots to 213,000 lots···

SHFE copper opened slightly lower in the morning session and then declined, before the market rebounded, closing down 0.08%. Market concerns about subsequent economic growth have increased, and uncertainties surrounding trade frictions persist. Although domestic social inventory of copper cathode continued to decline, copper prices faced significant upward pressure, continuing to fluctuate rangebound. China's industrial enterprise profits in Q1 shifted from decline to growth, but the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast, and uncertainties surrounding global trade frictions remain, with the macro atmosphere still awaiting clarity. Regarding the macro front, Maike Futures stated that the macro front is highly uncertain due to the trade war dynamics, but there may be increasing signs of a mid-term economic slowdown. As copper prices rebound to high levels, the macro environment has reverted to being a pressure factor. Domestic copper concentrate TCs continue to decline, with the tight ore supply situation persisting. Jinrui Futures stated that as mining company financial reports are being released, the annual increase in copper concentrates has been revised down to around 410,000 tonnes, and the backdrop of tight raw material supply remains unchanged. Although there have been smelting maintenance activities in the smelting sector, the impact may be felt in May. In addition, there have been instances of smelting reductions overseas, with their raw materials potentially flowing into China. On the consumption side, downstream wire and cable enterprises reported strong order flows, with April's consumption resilience materializing and domestic social inventory maintaining a relatively fast destocking pace. Looking ahead, as the long holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling is expected to sustain strong short-term fundamentals, with prices potentially remaining resilient. However, there are concerns about weakening consumption in mid-to-late May, which is not conducive to a sustained upward movement in the price center.

SHFE copper opened slightly higher in the morning, with intraday gains narrowing slightly, closing up 0.16%. Market sentiment generally eased, but against the backdrop of escalating trade frictions, demand concerns remain. Although the supply and demand fundamentals of the copper market still provide support, the momentum for futures prices to continue rebounding is limited. Recently, as global trade disputes have not escalated further, market sentiment has eased compared to earlier periods, and copper prices have rebounded from low levels. However, against the backdrop of ongoing trade frictions, demand concerns persist, and the rebound in copper prices is relatively limited. Everbright Futures stated that with the US government announcing a temporary suspension of tariff hikes on some countries, market sentiment eased, and copper prices experienced a corrective rebound. From the trend, concerns remain, and it is expected that this round of rebound will be difficult to exceed previous high points. In the short term, it is still recommended to buy on dips, especially for downstream copper-using enterprises, paying attention to the sentiment of US stocks and LME copper non-Asian trading sessions. As of April 14, the spot inventory of copper cathode in the domestic market was 258,900 mt, a decrease of 11,400 mt compared to the 10th. The social inventory of domestic copper cathode continued to destock, with declines in the Shanghai and Guangdong markets and an increase in the Jiangsu market. Due to the relatively low arrivals in the Shanghai market, both domestic and imported, and despite the rebound in copper prices, downstream consumption performance is moderate, leading to a continued decline in inventory. Xinhu Futures stated that during this round of copper price decline, domestic downstream enterprises actively entered the market for procurement, resulting in a significant drop in inventory, and LME inventory also continued to decline. Moreover, copper concentrate TCs have continued to decline, falling below -$30/mt, and the situation of copper ore shortage remains severe. The fundamentals support copper prices.

Trade tensions have eased, and market sentiment continues to recover. Non-ferrous metals generally rose, with SHFE tin fluctuating upward. The most-traded contract closed up 3.02% at 261,850 yuan/mt. Although African tin mines have resumed production, tin ore supply remains tight. Subsequent attention needs to be paid to the pace of resumption in Myanmar and the progress of the conflict in the DRC region. According to SMM's in-depth market survey data, as of last Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, experienced a certain decline, with a combined operating rate of 56.75%. Yunnan region: The raw material supply chain crisis has intensified, and the inventory cycle of tin smelters continues to decline. Jiangxi region: The recycling system has malfunctioned, coupled with shrinking demand, leading to a structural break in scrap supply. The recycling volume of tin in Jiangxi decreased by 10% compared to the Q4 average, and the cost of scrap sorting has risen. The recycling system still exhibits the cyclical issue of "stockpiling in peak season and drying up in off-season." Last week, SHFE tin prices fell sharply due to tariff issues, and the willingness to sell among refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was low, showing a sentiment of holding back cargoes. Last week, influenced by macro factors, when tin prices fell to around 255,000 yuan/mt on April 9-10, a wave of restocking emerged. The disappearance of the arbitrage space between futures and spot prices triggered smelters to hold back cargoes. Traders actively sold, reporting a surge in downstream orders stimulated by low prices, but end-user orders were mainly just-in-time procurement. Downstream buying the dip led to a significant destocking of tin ingot social inventory. Last week, LME tin inventory first rose and then fell, with the latest inventory dropping to 3,140 mt. Overall, recent inventory has remained stable. Regarding the future market, Jinrui Futures commented that the recent significant weakening of the US dollar is favorable for metal prices. Domestic immediate smelting raw materials still face pressure, but the resumption of production in the DRC is expected to weaken future raw material imbalances. On the consumption side, recent price fluctuations have led to a renewed weakening in downstream procurement. Looking ahead to short-term prices, considering that the short-term macro impact has not yet ended, prices may still have room for a pullback.

SHFE copper opened higher in the morning, with intraday gains further expanding, closing up 2.06%. Recent easing of trade tensions, a significant weakening of the US dollar index, and continued destocking of domestic refined copper social inventory have sustained the rebound in SHFE copper. Global trade tensions remain volatile, with market sentiment fluctuating accordingly. However, after a concentrated release of negative sentiment, the overall atmosphere has eased compared to earlier periods, coupled with the recent significant weakening of the US dollar index, providing support for the non-ferrous metals sector. On the macro front, Jinyuan Futures noted that the US has temporarily delayed tariff deadlines and expanded exemptions, while the cooling of core inflation in March has given the Federal Reserve room for interest rate cuts, improving market sentiment. The central bank is resolutely maintaining the stable operation of the capital market, and Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in the Chinese stock market. Currently, domestic copper concentrate TCs remain low, and the tight ore supply is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Last week, domestic refined copper social inventory showed a notable destocking, and spot premiums once rose. However, with the recent rebound in copper prices, spot prices against futures have hovered around parity, and subsequent demand performance needs to be monitored. The latest data as of the beginning of the week shows that domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline. Jinyuan Futures stated that the tight supply of concentrates is difficult to reverse, domestic production has rebounded MoM, low copper prices have stimulated active downstream procurement, and social inventory has quickly pulled back in the short term. Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise after confirming stage support.

SHFE tin experienced reduced volatility today after significant fluctuations yesterday, with the futures market initially declining before rebounding. The most-traded contract rose by 3.62%, closing at 257,450 yuan/mt. The resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC has alleviated the tight supply of tin ore, but the supply remains constrained until the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar. In the short term, tin prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of the non-ferrous metals sector. Since Q1, domestic and overseas tin ingot inventory trends have diverged. Domestic social inventory has continued to accumulate due to high tin prices suppressing demand and relatively high production levels, while LME inventory has been declining due to low supply. This week, tin prices experienced a significant decline, leading to improved spot trade in the domestic market. Social inventory of tin ingots is expected to destock, and the overall performance of tin fundamentals will depend on when tin mines in Myanmar resume production, given the resilience in consumption. Recently, tin prices bottomed out and rebounded, with some smelters holding back cargoes, resulting in limited actual transactions. Traders actively sold goods, reporting active downstream inquiries and stockpiling at low prices, leading to heated spot trades. Downstream feedback indicated significant price volatility, with some end-users remaining cautious while others entered the market to stockpile at low prices, primarily for just-in-time procurement. Overall order conditions have slightly improved, but future consumption strength will depend on downstream order-taking and subsequent production. Regarding the future market, Galaxy Futures commented that Indonesia's tin export policy, shifting from a single rate to a cumulative rate (significantly higher), may soon be implemented. The final policy situation will be closely monitored, as the rate increase could significantly impact local mining costs. Currently, LME tin prices remain below the levels before the rise caused by the suspension of tin mines in the DRC. With the easing of overseas macro panic sentiment and ongoing supply uncertainties in Myanmar and Indonesia, although the supply-demand imbalance has marginally weakened, the downside for tin prices is expected to be relatively limited.