SMM Feb. 12: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center rising from the previous trading day. Affected by the approaching Chinese New Year, overall market trading sentiment was weak, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at the average price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.21, down 0.08 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, up 0.04 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,350 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 220 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. As the Chinese New Year approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises has basically ended, with only minimal just-in-time procurement. Major suppliers have also gradually entered the Chinese New Year break, leading to limited spot aluminum availability in the market. However, some traders bought the dip and stockpiled, driving transaction prices higher. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.43, down 0.14 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.09, down 0.05 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 250 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 310 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -90 yuan/mt, narrowing 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas increased by 28,500 mt WoW, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year break on downstream sectors. Aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Spot premiums/discounts are still expected to face downward pressure. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering the holiday period, resulting in sluggish overall trading activity during the day. On the supply side, price-ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period of open import arbitrage windows are continuously arriving at ports, leading to significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area during the day. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have generally begun their holidays due to the approaching festival, causing procurement demand to weaken further. Overall, the market is expected to remain sluggish, and spot discounts are projected to widen further tomorrow.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Overall Warm Macro Front Contends with Inventory Buildup Reality, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Fluctuating in the Short Term] In summary, aluminum prices are expected to continue their fluctuating trend under pressure in the short term, constrained above by the reality of inventory buildup and supported below by macro expectations. They are anticipated to remain in the doldrums with limited room for a rebound.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,357/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially and touched a high of $13,480/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward to a low of $13,115/mt, before rebounding to close at $13,239/mt, up 1.06%, with trading volume reaching 26,500 lots and open interest at 326,000 lots, an increase of 893 lots from the previous session, overall showing bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 103,620 yuan/mt overnight, climbed to 103,730 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then experienced wide swings and touched a low of 101,840 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to close at 102,190 yuan/mt, up 0.26%, with trading volume at 69,800 lots and open interest at 152,000 lots, a decrease of 6,478 lots from the previous session, overall showing bears reducing positions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Futures Slightly Lower, Spot Prices Hold Steady Amid Wait-and-See Attitude] On Wednesday, the A00 aluminum price edged down by 30 yuan/mt to 23,260 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while the SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 23,650 yuan/mt. As the Chinese New Year approaches, upstream and downstream enterprises in the secondary aluminum industry chain have entered a concentrated holiday period, leading to a noticeable decline in market liquidity. Actual transactions continue to be sluggish, with spot quotations largely making minor adjustments around the futures market.

SMM February 12: Overnight, LME lead opened low at $1,974.5/mt, fluctuating upward during the Asian session; it then climbed to a high of $1,996/mt during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,994.5/mt, up 0.86%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It weakened and fell to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt due to a decline in both supply and demand fundamentals, ultimately closing at 16,725 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, spot quotations continue to decrease. Downstream battery producers have largely entered the holiday period, resulting in weak purchase willingness for lead ingots. Supply and demand in the spot market have both declined. Some producers are offering pre-sale quotations for post-holiday cargo pick-up, but spot order transactions are thin. Downstream battery producers are expected to resume operations around late February to early March. Post-holiday attention will focus on lead ingot inventory buildup and the impact of secondary lead national standard delivery matters on lead price sentiment. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened low at $1,974.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session; climbed to a high of $1,996/mt during the European session, and finally closed at $1,994.5/mt, up 0.86%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, touched a high of 16,805 yuan/mt early in the session, then weakened and probed lower to 16,700 yuan/mt due to the dual decline in fundamental supply and demand, finally closing at 16,725 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, hitting a new low since August 2025; following the non-farm data release, traders lowered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The Central Bank of Kenya joined African gold accumulation efforts, planning gold purchases to strengthen buffer capacity. Indonesia plans to cut production at the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council is promoting central state-owned enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power. Ministry of Commerce: The prize pool for the lottery invoice event during the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday will exceed 1 billion yuan. : The Chinese New Year atmosphere is strong in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, most suppliers have suspended quotations, only a few can offer primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, but currently vehicles are scarce, except for a very few ultra-short distances that can barely manage delivery, the vast majority of lead ingots require pick-up after the holiday. Secondary lead spot order prices are sporadic, enterprise transaction willingness is weak, most enterprises have entered the holiday and suspended shipments and quotations. Simultaneously, most downstream enterprises have entered the holiday break, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will also start their holiday this Saturday, downstream inquiries are minimal, and trading in the spot market is light on both sides. Inventory: On February 11, LME lead inventory increased by 200 mt to 232,950 mt. As of February 9, the SMM lead ingot five-region social inventory increased to a five-month high. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, spot quotations continue to decrease, downstream battery enterprises have largely entered the holiday, and lead ingot purchase willingness is sluggish. Supply and demand both decline in the spot market, individual producers offer pre-sale post-holiday pick-up prices, spot order transactions are thin. Downstream battery producers are expected to resume production by late February to early March; post-holiday focus will be on lead ingot inventory buildup and the impact of secondary lead national standard delivery matters on lead price sentiment. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 90,360 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices tested a low of 90,110 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, approaching a high of 91,020 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 90,790 yuan/mt, up 0.42%. Open interest fell to 4,485 lots, down 388 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume dropped to 3,022 lots, down 3,104 lots from the previous session. On the macro front, Trump called on the US Fed to cut interest rates, but officials stated that inflation remains relatively high and there is no urgent need for rate cuts. US December retail sales data fell short of expectations, and copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend. On the fundamentals side, imported supply continued to arrive, leading to looser availability of spot material in the market. Demand side, weakened further as the holiday approached, with downstream enterprises having largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, resulting in low purchase willingness at this stage. The market showed a clear pattern of weak supply and demand. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract settled at 102,180 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,790 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 102,593 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper was -413, maintaining an inverted spread which widened compared to the previous day.

[SS Futures Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore News Boosts SS Back Above 14,000 Yuan/mt, Stainless Steel Spot Market Remains Stable During Holiday SMM, February 11 — SS futures showed a strong upward trend. Last night, the 2026 Indonesian nickel ore approval quota was officially announced, driving SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures higher; during the day, SS futures once again climbed above 14,000 yuan/mt, finally closing at 14,145 yuan/mt. On the spot market side, despite the strong performance of SS futures, most spot trading was suspended as traders and downstream enterprises were largely on holiday, resulting in minimal actual transactions and stable prices. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:30 am, SS2604 was quoted at 14,010 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 160-360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for 201/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price for 304/2B cold-rolled mill-edge coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was 26,600 yuan/mt, and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/NO.1 hot-rolled coil in Wuxi was reported at 25,750 yuan/mt; the price for 430/2B cold-rolled coil was 7,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, repeated fluctuations in macro sentiment, combined with a significant pullback in precious metals prices, dragged down nonferrous metals futures overall, with stainless steel futures also...