SMM May 13 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.63%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.3%. SHFE lead was down 0.15%. SHFE zinc was up 1.46%. SHFE tin was up 0.08%. SHFE nickel edged down slightly. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures were up 0.15%, the most-traded alumina futures were down 0.71%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures were down 3.55%. The most-traded silicon metal futures were down 2.74%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were down 0.62%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 817.5 yuan/mt. Rebar was down 0.7%. Hot-rolled coil was down 0.57%. Stainless steel was up 0.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was down 2.51%, and the most-traded coke contract was down 1.28%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper was up 0.6%. LME aluminum was up 0.24%. LME zinc was up 0.4%. LME lead was up 0.3%. LME tin was up 1.29%. LME nickel was up 0.87%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was up 0.48%, and COMEX silver was up 1.99%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures were down 0.55%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures were up 1.1%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged down slightly, and the most-traded palladium futures were down 1.03%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.17%, at 2,539.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 13, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continued to fluctuate at highs, with subdued downstream purchasing sentiment. Intraday buying and selling sentiment both pulled back, and spot discounts continued to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day... Macro Front [China-US Economic and Trade Consultations Begin in South Korea] At noon local time on May 13, the economic and trade teams of China and the US began China-US economic and trade consultations at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, South Korea. (Xinhua) China: [PBOC Net Drains 25.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 25.5 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index was up 0.01%, at 98.31. The US April CPI rose at a faster-than-expected pace, further intensifying concerns about the impact of inflation on the US economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY. The monthly increase was in line with expectations, but the YoY increase was 0.1 percentage point above market expectations. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, indicating that while inflation remained well above the US Fed's 2% target, pressure mainly came from non-core areas, especially energy. Energy prices rose 3.8%, once again becoming one of the main drivers of rising inflation; food prices also rose 0.5%. For the full year, energy prices were up 17.9% and food prices were up 3.2%. Gasoline prices were up 28.4% YoY. Although energy, especially gasoline, was the main news focus, inflationary pressures also came from several other areas. Housing costs rose 0.6%, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.6%, airfares rose 2.8% with a YoY increase of 20.7%. Tariffs also appeared to have affected other areas, with household furnishings and related expenditures up 0.7%. (Jin10 Data) According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 97.1%, with a 2.9% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 96%, with a 3.9% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) CITIC Securities noted in a research report that US April inflation continued to run hot, with spillover effects from Middle East conflicts persisting and compensatory increases in rental inflation pushing up core readings. High inflation continued to erode the real purchasing power of US households, with low-income households facing stronger cost shocks, and real hourly wages turning negative YoY for the first time in three years. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second wave of US inflation is relatively small, but high oil prices will constrain the room for inflation to pull back within the year. Under the base case scenario, the US Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps within the year. US Treasuries are currently more suited for trading opportunities. After a strong earnings season nears its conclusion, US equities should be watched for short-term risks of profit-taking. The US dollar index is likely to be in the doldrums below 100 rather than in a sustained decline. Other currencies: According to the latest estimate from the OECD, the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate is expected to reach 2% by the end of 2027. The report noted that assuming inflation remains around 2%, the current rate is still close to the lower bound of the neutral rate range for the economy. The report also recommended that the Bank of Japan should continue to gradually raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. The Bank of Japan previously estimated that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate is between 1.1% and 2.5%, but noted that the specific level is subject to significant uncertainty. (Jin10 Data) Macro: Data to be released today include France's Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France's April CPI MoM final reading, the eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised reading, the eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final reading, the eurozone March industrial output MoM, the US April PPI YoY, and the US April PPI MoM. In addition, attention should also be paid to: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12-13 for economic and trade consultations with the US side; US President Trump making a state visit to China. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks fell. WTI was down 1.03%, and Brent was down 1.06%. Iran set out its "entry ticket" for nuclear talks with the US, including unfreezing assets and recognizing sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated: "When negotiating with Iran, I don't consider the financial situation of the American people. I don't consider anyone." Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense said the Iran ceasefire agreement remained in effect. (Jin10 Data) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that US crude oil inventories fell for the fourth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories increased. US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8 were -2.188 million barrels, versus expectations of -1.654 million barrels and a prior reading of -8.141 million barrels. US API gasoline inventories for the week ending May 8 were 502,000 barrels, versus expectations of -2.549 million barrels and a prior reading of -6.107 million barrels. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report showed: if the Strait of Hormuz were closed through the end of June, crude oil prices would be $20/barrel higher than the current forecast assuming reopening by the end of May. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► Other metals spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to check~

SMM Nickel News, May 13: Macro and market news: (1) The US overall CPI annual rate in April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting a new high since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. (2) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 12 that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz were preconditions for any negotiations with the US. Spot market: On May 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged at -700-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 146,830 yuan/mt, down 0.07%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching a framework agreement, the negotiations ultimately failed to produce formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, and downstream purchasing sentiment remains subdued. Both buying and selling sentiment pulled back during the day, with spot discounts continuing to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand and limited willingness to chase higher prices. In terms of market structure, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts remained in the range of 90-20 yuan/mt. As the 05 contract delivery date approaches, suppliers are increasingly willing to ship to delivery warehouse, and the delivery logic is expected to provide bottom support for spot discounts, limiting further significant downside. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with a generally weak tone but limited downside room.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Mine-Side Disruptions, LME Zinc Continues to Rally] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,482/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,457/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $3,542.5/mt near the close. It ultimately closed higher at $3,532.5/mt, up $50.5/mt, a gain of 1.45%. Trading volume increased to 15,265 lots, and open interest rose by 727 lots to 242,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,972.5/mt. Due to concerns over ore supply triggered by energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt. It moved sideways near the close and ultimately settled at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking five consecutive bearish sessions. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery. Suppliers continued to ship lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, breaking through the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, after SHFE lead surged significantly last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased. It is expected that lead ingot social inventory will maintain an upward trend before delivery is completed, with obvious resistance for lead prices. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Driven by recovering risk appetite and China's peak demand season, copper prices both in China and abroad bottomed out since late March. However, as SHFE copper returned to the 100,000 level, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts increased, and futures prices shifted to range-bound consolidation. After the Labour Day holiday, copper prices quickly resumed their upward momentum. Today, prices opened higher with a gap and continued to rise, with SHFE copper just one step away from the record high set at the end of January, while LME copper hit a new closing high. What is fueling such strong confidence behind this rally? Deepening Ore-Side Vulnerability Intensifies Supply Disruption Concerns Since the suspension of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine at the end of 2023, spot TC for copper concentrates in China has been caught in an endless downward spiral. Falling from around $80/dmt at the end of 2023, it largely dropped to single-digit levels and moved sideways in 2024. Entering 2025, it further plunged into negative territory, mainly due to successive production disruptions at world-class copper mines including Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula, Codelco's El Teniente, and Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Entering 2026, global major copper ore supply growth remained limited, and the ore tightness showed no improvement. The latest data showed that spot TC for copper concentrates in China had fallen below -$90/dmt. With long-term contract TC at zero and spot TC declines accelerating, domestic smelters' production profits mainly relied on surging sulphuric acid prices and firm by-product prices of gold, silver, and other metals to compensate. It was reported that current sulphuric acid revenue could already cover smelters' procurement costs for copper concentrates and part of the processing costs, enabling domestic smelters to maintain relatively high operating rates, and the ore tightness had not yet notably transmitted to the smelting side. It is worth noting that sulphuric acid is not only a by-product of pyrometallurgy but also a core production material for SX-EW copper. For every 1 mt of copper produced, 5–6 mt of sulphuric acid is consumed. Sulphuric acid costs account for 40%–50% of total SX-EW copper production costs, and SX-EW copper production accounts for approximately 20% of global mine copper production. Since the beginning of this year, sulphuric acid prices surged sharply due to multiple factors, and ex-China sulphuric acid supply was periodically disrupted, raising concerns that copper supply in some countries could be affected. Focusing on the reasons behind the sulphuric acid price surge: on one hand, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been broadly restricted and has recently faced a dual blockade by Iran and the US. Sulphur exports from the Middle East have been impacted, with the DRC and Zambia being the most concentrated SX-EW copper producing regions that are highly dependent on sulphur imports from the Middle East. As sulphur supply has been constrained, sulphuric acid prices have naturally risen in tandem, not only raising local SX-EW copper production costs but also potentially triggering further production cuts if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues and sulphur disruption risks escalate. On the other hand, to prioritise domestic spring ploughing phosphate fertiliser production and support new energy industry expansion, China has imposed a phased ban on sulphuric acid exports according to industry sources. Chile has a relatively high dependence on Chinese sulphuric acid, with SX-EW copper accounting for around 20% of its output, and the market is also concerned that Chile's SX-EW copper production may be affected. In addition, against the backdrop of an already fragile copper ore supply, frequent news shocks from outside China recently have undoubtedly intensified market concerns. Last week, market rumours suggested that the full restart of Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine, which declared force majeure in September last year, had been delayed by one year, driving SHFE copper sharply higher in the afternoon of 8 May. However, according to the latest update from Freeport-McMoRan, the company still expects Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine to fully resume production by the end of 2027, reaffirming the plan outlined last month and refuting reports that production resumptions could be delayed to 2028. Furthermore, yesterday Peru declared an emergency energy decree due to a natural gas pipeline explosion. Peru's copper production reached 2.63 million mt in metal content last year, ranking third globally. Copper mining and smelting are relatively sensitive to power stability, and the market is concerned that Peru's energy strain may disrupt local copper supply. Overall, China's copper cathode production remains relatively stable, but some major global miners lowered their full-year production guidance in Q1, the ore tightness persists, sulphuric acid supply — a core raw material for ex-China SX-EW copper — is constrained, and there are multiple supply disruption themes on the copper supply side, which can easily boost copper prices once the macro front stabilises. Global Copper Visible Inventory Divergence: China Destocking Provides Support Last year, driven by the US government's threat to impose additional tariffs on imported copper, global copper continued to flow into the US, causing COMEX copper inventories to accumulate continuously while copper inventories in non-US regions remained low, providing sustained support for copper prices. In February this year, the US Supreme Court struck down most of the tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration in 2025. The Trump administration subsequently turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to push new global tariff policies. On 7 May, the US Court of International Trade issued a ruling stating that the legal basis for imposing a 10% global import tariff was invalid. The tug-of-war between US courts and the Trump administration over tariffs has continued recently, but the market has certain expectations that the US may subsequently impose additional tariffs on imported copper. Under such expectations, the price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, meaning copper in LME warehouses still has the potential to flow to the US. Specifically, COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound since mid-April, rising from around 590,000 mt to the latest 620,000 mt, again hitting a multi-year high. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories pulled back from around 400,000 mt in mid-April, declining to 397,700 mt on 6 May. They have rebounded with fluctuations recently, but overall inventories have not exceeded the over-12-year high set in mid-April. SHFE copper inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week, currently dropping to 181,300 mt, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Data source: Webstock Inc. Overall, on the macro front, there are currently disagreements in US-Iran negotiations, but both sides continue the ceasefire with no recent signs of escalation in conflict. Energy prices pulled back from late April levels, inflation concerns eased somewhat, the US dollar index was in the doldrums, and combined with the AI boom lifting global stock markets, market risk appetite was moderate, providing a fertile ground for copper prices to strengthen. Focusing on copper's own fundamentals, inventories outside China remained elevated, but significant prior destocking of China inventories provided support. The ore tightness was difficult to reverse, and supply-side narratives were abundant, meaning copper prices may still hold up well. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation remains the biggest macro variable, and the policy path following the Fed Chairman's power transition also deserves close attention. (Webstock Composite)

Spot silver surged 7.07% on May 11, breaking above $86/oz. Peru, a leading global silver producer, issued an energy crisis emergency decree on the same day. With mining operations highly dependent on stable energy, the shortage is expected to reduce global marginal silver supply, further boosting prices amid low inventory levels.