[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Lower in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Higher, While Downstream Enterprises Mainly Purchased to Restock for Phased Production Needs]

At first glance, the market reaction to the outbreak of war following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran appeared deeply counterintuitive.

Australian ore producer Fenix has warned that fuel shortages are beginning to impact its operations, citing constrained diesel supplies linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which has compelled the iron ore company to curtail some of its activities. According to a company filing, Fenix is taking measures to reduce non-essential activities within its mining and haulage operations in Western Australia. The statement also noted that fuel supply has been further disrupted by Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which is currently active off the coast of Western Australia. The company's share price fell by 7% following the announcement.

【Citi: Raise GAC Group's AH Share Target Price】Citi issued a research report stating that, considering the progress in robotics technology and the partnership with Huawei, it has raised the target price for GAC's H shares from 3 HKD to 3.8 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating; the A-share target price was raised from 7.2 yuan to 8.1 yuan, and the rating was upgraded from "sell" to "neutral". The bank believes that after a 11% decline in A-share prices over the past year, the current risk-reward profile appears neutral. Additionally, taking into account the actual sales performance in 2025 and the bank's relatively conservative industry outlook for 2026.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $12,967/mt overnight, hitting an early high of $12,984/mt before copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of $12,804/mt near the close and finally settling at $12,901/mt, down 0.76%. Trading volume reached 12,000 lots, down 4,963 lots from the previous session, while open interest stood at 318,000 lots, up 327 lots from the previous session, primarily driven by increased bear positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract was closed overnight due to the Chinese New Year holiday.

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.

[SMM Tungsten Express] Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR) of Vietnam reported a return to profitability in its 2025 financial results, driven primarily by tungsten products. Revenue reached VND 74.4 trillion, up 19% year-on-year; full-year net profit was $423,000, with Q4 net profit surging to $8.5 million, a multi-quarter high. Tungsten product revenue rose 33% to $171.5 million, boosted by APT prices hitting 14-year highs. The company's Nui Phao mine, the largest outside China, underscores its strategic value. The market has revalued MSR's position in the global tungsten supply chain, with its share price rising in anticipation.

• Sigma Lithium announces the sale of an additional 100,000 tons of high-purity lithium ore fines based on the SMM lithium concentrate price, at a price higher than the previous sale. • The company confirms that mine restart activities are progressing as planned and are expected to be completed by January 2026, consistent with its announcement on January 13, 2026. • Sigma Lithium strongly refutes recent media reports that inaccurately described an administrative procedure initiated by Brazil's Ministry of Labor and Employment regarding the company's waste piles as an "operational ban," labeling such reports as "fake news," and states it has notified relevant authorities. On January 23, Sigma Lithium announced the sale of another 100,000 tons of high-purity lithium ore fines. In its statement, the company reiterated that the remobilization of contractor equipment and personnel at the mine site is progressing according to plan and is expected to be completed in January 2026. The company firmly denied recent media reports that mischaracterized an administrative procedure initiated by the Ministry of Labor and Employment as an "operational ban," calling them "fake news." Regarding speculative reporting by some media based on this procedure about the safety of the company's waste piles, Sigma Lithium clarified that such claims are completely false and emphasized that this administrative procedure does not constitute a material event. High-Purity Lithium Ore Fines Sales Details The transaction was conducted based on the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) lithium concentrate price, equivalent to an adjusted net price of USD 140 per ton for each 1% Li₂O content (the current SMM price quotation for 1.35% Li₂O content is USD 195 per ton). Sigma Lithium pointed out that the revenue from these high-purity fines sales represents a "green dividend" for its shareholders, made possible by the company's investment in environmental "cutting-edge technology" at its Greentech Plant. This technology enables dry-stacking of tailings and allows for the recovery of lithium by selling high-purity fines. Consequently, Sigma Lithium possesses one of the most environmentally sustainable lithium processing facilities in the industry, integrating dry-stacking, 100% water recirculation, zero use of toxic chemicals in lithium processing, and 100% renewable power supply. Clarification Regarding Inaccurate Media Reports Sigma Lithium has recently been the subject of multiple inaccurate reports. The company stated that this is part of an organized, funded online defamation campaign that has repeatedly disseminated false, inaccurate, and misleading information about the company and its management. The latest reports containing false statements about the Ministry of Labor and Employment's administrative inquiry into the company's waste piles and their safety align with the tactics of this ongoing "fake news cyber-smear campaign": approximately one month after the inquiry's initiation and merely two days after the company's positive operational update on January 13, 2026, several "paid-writer" style online media outlets suddenly published a flood of defamatory articles claiming the company had been shut down by the Ministry or even the "Brazilian Government." These allegations were primarily published by certain Brazilian online media outlets that publish sponsored content and were subsequently republished by some international mainstream online media and news agencies lacking rigorous fact-checking practices. This defamation campaign led to significant volatility in Sigma Lithium's share price on January 16, with trading volume exceeding four times the Nasdaq daily average and the stock price dropping approximately 30%, potentially benefiting short-sellers. The company has reported the matter to relevant authorities, including FINRA (under the U.S. SEC). The Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Employment initiated an administrative inquiry regarding the company's waste piles in mid-December, following a routine health and safety inspection. During this inspection, the Ministry acknowledged the company's outstanding safety record—over two years without a lost-time injury. Sigma Lithium's management believes that this inquiry did not, at its initiation nor does it currently, constitute material information requiring disclosure, and it does not affect the company's operations, including the ongoing mine restart plan. The company's restart plan is expected to sustain approximately 19,000 direct and indirect jobs in the Jequitinhonha Valley region. This objective aligns closely with the purposes of the Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Employment, the Brazilian Government, and Sigma Lithium. Sigma Lithium's commercial success significantly enhances Brazil's leadership in critical minerals, positioning the country as a key player in the global supply chain for Li₂O materials produced in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner, thereby supporting the energy transition.

On June 17, the share price of China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (CNMC) rose. As of 14:29 on June 17, CNMC's shares increased by 2.03%, closing at HK$7.03 per share. On June 16, CNMC (01258) announced that its subsidiary, CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited, had signed the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement with Gecamines on June 16, 2025. The total contract value was approximately $67.03 million, involving the purchase of 7,000 metric tons of high-grade copper cathode processed by CNMC Huaxin Hydrometallurgy. CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of the company. Gecamines holds a 40% stake in the company's subsidiary, Kambove Mining, and is considered a connected person at the subsidiary level under the Listing Rules. Therefore, the transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement constitute connected transactions of the company under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules. According to CNMC's announcement, as one or more of the applicable percentage ratios in relation to the transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement, when considered on a standalone basis, exceed 0.1% but are all below 5%, these transactions are subject to the reporting, annual review, and announcement requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules and are exempt from the requirement for independent shareholders' approval. Under Rule 14A.81 of the Listing Rules, if a series of connected transactions are all conducted within the same 12-month period or are interrelated, these transactions must be aggregated and treated as a single transaction. The transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement are similar in nature to previous transactions and must be aggregated. When aggregated with previous transactions, all applicable percentage ratios for the transactions proposed under this agreement exceed 0.1% but are below 5%. Therefore, these transactions are subject to the reporting and announcement requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules and are exempt from the requirement for independent shareholders' approval. The key terms of the agreement include the agreement period from June 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025. Pricing: The price per metric ton for the copper cathode sold under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement shall be determined by reference to the average price during the agreed quotation period (i.e., the month following the delivery month, hereinafter referred to as the "Quotation Period"). This price is calculated by deducting a discount of $425 per metric ton from the daily cash seller's quotation for Grade A copper on the London Metal Exchange during the Quotation Period, after fair negotiations between the contracting parties. Therefore, the total market value of the copper cathode is approximately $70,000,000 (before deducting the discount). Payment: The payment for the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement shall be made by CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited to Gecamines' designated account via telegraphic transfer within five (5) working days after the delivery of the copper cathode. Delivery Period: CNMC Hong Kong Holdings Limited is required to appoint a carrier to dispatch trucks to Gécamines' plant for cargo loading within ten (10) days from the date Gécamines provides the goods. Regarding the reasons for this transaction, the announcement by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (CNMC) indicates that the copper cathode purchased under the 2025 agreement will meet the demand for copper cathode from CNMC Hong Kong Holdings Limited and its customers. The Board believes that entering into this agreement is beneficial to the Group and aligns with the Group's business and commercial objectives. The agreement was negotiated on a one-off basis, taking into account the recent demand for copper cathode and the market supply and demand conditions at the time of signing. As of the announcement date, the Group has no plans to purchase copper cathode from Gécamines on an annual basis. If the Company plans to engage in continuous daily transactions with Gécamines in the future, it will comply with all applicable provisions of the Listing Rules. When commenting on CNMC's 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 results, Minsheng Securities stated: "Historical best annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with expectations for sustained growth in self-produced copper." On April 25, 2025, the Company released its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 results. In 2024, the Company achieved revenue of $3.817 billion, up 5.8% YoY, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $399 million, up 43.6% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the Company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $85 million in 2024Q4, up 273.9% YoY and down 11.1% MoM; in 2025Q1, the Company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $123 million, up 46% YoY and up 46% QoQ. The 2025Q1 results exceeded market expectations. The record-high net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was mainly due to the rise in copper prices. ① Production: Affected by the change of service providers and tight power supply in the DRC, the self-produced copper output declined slightly YoY. In 2024, the Company's production of blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode/sulphuric acid was 28.6/12.6/1.056 million mt, with YoY changes of +0.1%, -11.4%, and +10.5%, respectively. Among them, self-produced blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode were 7.77/81,500 mt, down 11.4% and 0.2% YoY, respectively. The total self-produced copper ore was 159,000 mt, down 6% YoY. The decrease in self-produced blister copper and copper anode output was mainly due to a 10.9% YoY decline in CNMC Nonferrous Mining's copper output to 68,000 mt, as the change of underground mining service providers in H1 affected the production of sulphide ore. From a quarterly production perspective, Q2-Q4 had recovered to a level of 17,000-18,000 mt per quarter. In addition, although self-produced copper cathode production remained basically flat, the production of copper cathode from externally purchased oxide ore decreased, leading to a YoY decline in total copper cathode output, mainly due to production losses at Huaxin Hydrometallurgy and Huaxin Mabende caused by power shortages in the DRC. ② Sales: Production and sales were basically balanced. It is worth noting that cobalt production was only 633 mt, down 49.6% YoY, possibly due to the prolonged downturn in cobalt prices. ③ Unit Price: Rising copper prices contributed to profit growth. ④ Cost: Cost control was strong, with overall costs remaining stable. ⑤ Lightly Equipped with Excellent Asset Quality. In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly both YoY and QoQ, mainly due to the rise in copper prices and the normalization of copper production. ① Production: In Q1 2025, the company's production of blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode/sulphuric acid was 10.97/3.50/271,400 mt respectively. Among them, the production of blister copper and copper anode, and sulphuric acid was basically flat YoY, while the production of copper cathode increased by 8% YoY. This was mainly because the production of copper cathode at Huaxin Mabende and Huaxin Hydrometallurgy, two hydrometallurgical smelters in the DRC, increased by 49% and 20% YoY respectively. The increase in production was due to the company's efforts to ensure power supply through multiple measures such as constructing PV power generation and diesel power generation facilities. The self-produced blister copper and copper anode (CNMC Luanshya + CNMC Nonferrous Mine + Chambishi Hydrometallurgy)/copper cathode (CNMC Luanshya + Chambishi Hydrometallurgy + Gambowe Mining) were 21,400/21,700 mt respectively, increasing by 22.4% and decreasing by 3.7% YoY respectively. The total self-produced copper ore was 43,000 mt, up 7.7% YoY. The increase in self-produced blister copper and copper anode production was mainly due to the 26.7% YoY increase in copper production at Chambishi Copper Mine of CNMC Nonferrous Mine, as the low base caused by the replacement of mine service providers in the same period last year affected production, which has now returned to normal this year. ② Unit Price: In Q1 2025, the prices of copper and cobalt were 77,300 yuan/mt and 170,000 yuan/mt respectively, changing by +11.3% and -17.1% YoY, and increasing by 2.4% and 4.6% QoQ respectively. The long-term contract TC for 2025 was $21.25/mt. The vast majority of the company's smelter raw materials come from copper concentrates locked in through long-term contracts. However, due to successful negotiations on freight sharing, the decline in some of the TC was offset, so the impact of the decline in smelting processing fees on the company was less than that on domestic companies. Core Highlights: ① Endogenous Growth: CNMC Africa Mining, CNMC Luanshya, and Chambishi Hydrometallurgy, subsidiaries of the company, will research and promote the following projects in the next 3-5 years: the expansion of the Chambishi Southeast Orebody, the new mine of CNMC Luanshya, the mining and beneficiation project of the Samba Mine, and the production resumptions of the Gambowe West Orebody and MSESA Orebody, indicating significant endogenous growth potential. ② Outward Mergers and Acquisitions: At the group level, to address horizontal competition issues, the DRC company and Deziwa Copper Mine are expected to be injected into the publicly listed firm. ③ Scarcity of High-Dividend Copper Targets. Risk Warnings: Continuous decline in smelting processing fees, decline in copper prices, and geopolitical risks. Guosen Securities commented on CNMC Mining in its research report, stating: Core Mines: In 2024, CNMC Africa Mining produced approximately 68,200 mt of copper anode, down about 11% YoY; CNMC Luanshya produced approximately 44,400 mt of copper cathode, up about 2% YoY, and 4,159 mt of copper anode, down about 47% YoY; Gambowe Mining produced approximately 34,400 mt of copper cathode, up about 4% YoY. High Dividend Payout Ratio: The company plans to distribute a dividend of 4.2893¢ per share, with a total dividend amount of approximately $167 million, accounting for 42% of the company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024. The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 40% for four consecutive years since 2020, with its dividend payout ratio and dividend yield ranking among the leading levels in the industry. The company's captive mine is expected to gradually increase its annual copper production to approximately 300,000 mt in the medium and long term. Risk Warnings: Risk of mineral product selling prices not meeting expectations, risk of the company's project construction progress not meeting expectations, and risk of changes in policies related to mineral resources in overseas countries.

Before the "Super Central Bank Week" kicked off, the US stock market temporarily recovered from the risk-averse sentiment of last Friday, with all three major indices closing higher on Monday, while gold and crude oil prices pulled back together. As of Monday's close, the S&P 500 rose 0.94% to 6,033.11 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.52% to 19,701.21 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75% to 42,515.09 points. Spot gold fell nearly $50 to $3,383.62 per ounce, and international oil prices also fell nearly 2%. (Daily chart of the S&P 500 Index, source: TradingView) According to CCTV News, the conflict between Israel and Iran continued overnight and into the morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a pre-recorded online press conference that Israel's actions would not stop and that Israel was "systematically and continuously destroying Iran's nuclear targets." On the same day, Hossein Dehghan, a senior advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, said that the IRGC was prepared for a long-term, full-scale war with Israel. Undoubtedly, the progress of this conflict will continue to directly impact the performance of capital markets. Investors will closely monitor the conditions of energy facilities and key shipping routes. The RBC Capital Markets Strategist Team pointed out that, given recent gains, US stock valuations have become stretched. In the worst-case scenario, if the situation in the Middle East drives up energy prices, leading to "severe" inflation in the US, the S&P 500 could experience a significant correction. Starting from noon Beijing time on Tuesday, multiple central banks will gradually disclose their interest rate decisions. The market will closely monitor the Bank of Japan's statements and actions regarding the "Japanese bond storm," the US Fed's outlook statements, and the Swiss National Bank's move back to zero interest rates (or even the possibility of negative rates). Performance of Popular Stocks US tech giants rebounded collectively on Monday. Apple rose 1%, Microsoft rose 0.88%, Amazon rose 1.89%, NVIDIA rose 1.92%, Alphabet (Google-A) rose 1.20%, Tesla rose 1.17%, Meta rose 2.9%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 8.81%. Chinese concept stocks also showed a broad-based rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 2.07%. As of the close, Alibaba rose 2.74%, JD.com rose 2.2%, Baidu rose 1.45%, Pinduoduo rose 2.2%, Bilibili rose 5.64%, NIO rose 0.43%, NetEase rose 1.31%, Futu Holdings rose 10.77%, Jinko Solar rose 3.13%, Tuya Smart rose 4.4%, 21Vianet Group rose 4.41%, and GDS Holdings rose 9.5%. Company News [Circle's Share Price Hits New High, CEO Predicts Stablecoin's "iPhone Moment" is Imminent] Cryptocurrency stablecoin company Circle closed up 13.1% on Monday to $151, just shy of quintupling its IPO price ($31). Jeremy Allaire, Circle's co-founder and CEO, said over the weekend that while the "iPhone moment" for cryptocurrency stablecoins has not yet arrived, he expects it to come soon. On the policy front, the US Senate is expected to vote on the GENIUS Act as early as this Tuesday. [Sarepta's Share Price Collapses: Another Patient Dies After Gene Therapy Treatment] Biopharmaceutical company Sarepta Therapeutics plummeted 42.12% on Monday after the second patient treated with its gene therapy, Elevidys, died, raising questions about the therapy's safety. It is understood that Elevidys is the only gene therapy approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of the rare Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a disease in which muscles gradually weaken, typically affecting children or adults after the age of 4. [Alibaba's AI Team Launches AI Models Optimized Based on Apple's MLX Framework] Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen announced on Monday that it has launched all Qwen3-series models deeply optimized based on Apple's MLX framework, enabling Apple devices, including iPhones, to easily deploy the Tongyi Qianwen series models. [Meta Introduces Paid Ads to WhatsApp for the First Time] Meta announced on Monday that businesses can now place so-called "Status Ads" on the messaging app WhatsApp to guide users to interact with advertisers through WhatsApp's messaging feature. [AMD's Share Price Surges, Analysts Predict Rebound in GPU Business] Compute chip supplier AMD's share price closed up 8.81% on Monday, approaching its yearly high from early January. On the news front, analysts at Piper Sandler raised their target price from $125 to $140 in their latest report. Analysts are excited about AMD's new products released last week and expect the company's GPU business to rebound in Q4.