[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply-Side Contraction Eases Inventory Buildup Pressure, Lead Prices Expected to Maintain Consolidation Trend] PBOC: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Recently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises in some regions have undergone maintenance or production cuts, leading to regional supply tightening...

SMM August 10 News: Futures side, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened and consolidated on a strong note during the day, breaking above the recent consolidation range. Bears closing positions pushed the price center higher, and it held up well near the close. The high was 15,890 yuan/mt, and it finally settled at 15,870 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's closing price of 15,730 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.89%. Intraday trading volume was 60,214 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,006 lots to 60,186 lots. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract formed small bullish candlesticks on the daily chart for two consecutive days, indicating some short-term strength in futures. However, spot market follow-through was relatively limited, with suppliers actively selling and downstream users cautious and wait-and-see due to high prices. Supply-side tightness in some cargoes and secondary lead cost side provided some support, while insufficient procurement volume on the demand side limited further upside room for prices. Lead prices may continue to consolidate on a strong note in the near term, with attention on inventory changes before delivery, downstream acceptance of higher prices, and the recovery of secondary lead supply.

[Waste Lead-Acid Battery Market Dynamics] Intraday lead prices drifted higher, and sentiment of holding back from selling among waste lead-acid battery recyclers intensified. Some secondary lead smelters plan to raise scrap battery purchase prices to ensure raw material arrivals. It is reported that a company in east China has raised its water battery price by 20 yuan/mt, while its EV battery price remains unchanged, effective tomorrow.

SMM August 10: Today, most market participants suggested keeping online prices stable. Mainstream spot order sources were offered at discounts of 25-50 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price, and shipments still faced pressure. Downstream purchases were based on demand, with limited willingness to proactively purchase, and overall trading performance was average. Today, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,550 yuan/mt, at a discount of 25 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment was 1.07, and today's secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment was 1.21 (historical data can be accessed in the database).

SMM August 10 News: Scrap battery side, market quotations remained stable overall today. SHFE lead performed relatively strong in the morning, with the price center moving up during the session, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent, but secondary lead smelters remained cautious in adjusting prices. Currently, last week's purchase orders have not yet been fully delivered, and some smelters indicated they are not in a hurry to raise scrap battery purchase prices for the time being, in order to avoid situations where recyclers renege on orders or supply sources are switched after the transition between old and new quotations. The pace of purchasing and selling among traders remained stable overall, with operations still focused on quick buying and selling. However, as lead prices stabilized and expectations for price hikes heated up, the wait-and-see sentiment among some market participants strengthened. If lead prices and supply and demand remain stable this week, some smelters may see a slight increase in their scrap battery purchase quotations in the latter half of the week.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Delivery-Driven Inventory Buildup Puts Pressure on Short-Term Lead Prices, Which Will Consolidate on a Subdued Note] According to US media: Trump has delayed military action against Iran, saying he is "handling the Iran issue quietly." Recently, social inventory of lead ingots has been accumulating, which is a normal phenomenon before the delivery of SHFE lead...

[Secondary Lead Production Updates] A secondary lead smelter in east China halted production yesterday. The enterprise said it plans to halt production for three months. During this period, it will monitor market trends. If lead prices rebound and losses are recovered, it can resume production ahead of schedule.

SMM, August 7: The scrap battery market remained largely stable this week, with purchase quotes from some smelters edging up slightly. A mid-week rise in SHFE lead prices triggered a brief recovery in market sentiment, prompting recyclers to sell into the strength, before the market returned to a cautious, wait-and-see mode. Losses at smelters and weak secondary lead transactions curbed raw material procurement appetite, suppressing both scrap battery purchasing volumes and the acceptance of high bids. However, limited growth in social supply lent support to prices. Next week, scrap battery prices are expected to remain steady with a mild upward bias. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in secondary lead, adjustments in smelter operating rates, and the fulfillment of demand expectations during the traditional peak season. If a marginal improvement in lead ingot consumption drives a rebound in lead prices, scrap battery prices are likely to follow in tandem.

SMM August 7: The secondary refined lead market remained in a stalemate, affected by tight raw material supply and smelting losses, with smelters holding back from selling and holding prices firm. During the week, mainstream spot order transactions were at a discount of 75-0 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. Battery consumption remained sluggish. Downstream users only made just-in-time procurement, and with primary lead diverting demand, overall spot transactions were weak. Scrap battery prices remained relatively stable, providing strong cost support for smelters. As of August 7, 2026, the theoretical combined profit/loss for large secondary lead enterprises was -392 yuan/mt, while that for small and medium-sized plants was -570 yuan/mt. Next week, battery enterprises’ purchasing sentiment will remain the core factor affecting the market. If lead prices do not rise significantly, discounts on secondary lead shipments will be unlikely to widen further, and smelting losses will also be difficult to narrow.

Next week, the key macroeconomic data will include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY rate, July retail sales MoM rate, and preliminary August one-year inflation expectations. On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have eased. According to US media, Iran and Oman have reached a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue; meanwhile, US President Trump again stated that military operations against Iran may end soon. In addition, the US will release several economic indicators next week, and markets will continue to monitor statements from Fed officials on future monetary policy. In the short term, the macro front remains highly uncertain, providing limited support for base metal prices. On the LME lead front, suppliers in markets outside China have been actively picking up goods recently, with LME lead inventory dropping by over 16,000 mt this week. However, considering the current overseas lead consumption situation, the supply shortage is mainly concentrated in 4N lead, while 3N lead trading remains sluggish. The market widely views this destocking as a result of inventory transfers rather than improvement in end-use consumption. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further to -$47.56/mt, also reflecting that expectations for spot consumption improvement remain limited. Attention should still be paid to developments in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy impact on the base metal market. Next week, LME lead is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation, trading at $1,870-1,915/mt. For SHFE lead, the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory is a normal phenomenon ahead of SHFE lead delivery. As delivery approaches next week, suppliers are expected to further increase shipments to delivery warehouses, and visible inventory may continue to rise, exerting some pressure on lead prices in the short term. However, on the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at major primary lead delivery brand smelters are gradually starting, which could become an important factor supporting lead prices in mid-to-late August. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to dip first and then stabilize and rebound, with a trading range of 15,450-15,900 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,400-15,650 yuan/mt. In the short term, downstream lead-acid battery enterprises are seeing both production recovery and output cuts, and consumption improvement remains limited, providing insufficient support for lead prices. On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at primary lead smelters are increasing, and market availability of goods is expected to tighten gradually, with primary lead spot cargo likely to maintain a slight premium. If lead prices gradually recover, secondary lead enterprises' losses are expected to be repaired, and smelters' willingness to sell may pick up accordingly, with secondary refined lead trading at a discount likely to increase.