[SMM Analysis]Cost Support and Demand Constraints Coexist, ADC12 Consolidates at Highs, Awaiting Peak Season Breakthrough

[Destocking Pattern Hard to Reverse in Short Term, Aluminum Prices Consolidate and Adjust in Short Term] Overall, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover, but the destocking pattern is hard to reverse in the short term. Under the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and the trends of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and China’s downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Drift Higher, Spot Market Stable in Narrow Range Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher overall in the night session, closing at 23,175 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.65%.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 market maintained a stable price trend overall today, with quotes from mainstream producers basically flat. On the one hand, aluminum prices fluctuated within a limited range recently, and the cost side lacked new driving factors, but the supply of aluminum scrap remained tight, lending some support to secondary aluminum alloy prices. On the other hand, end-use demand remained in the off-season, downstream orders were released insufficiently, and the market trading atmosphere was subdued. Against the backdrop of the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, the market as a whole maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in a narrow range in the short term.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Cost Support and Off-Season Demand Keep ADC12 Price Moving Sideways] Today, the ADC12 market continued its stable price trend overall, with mainstream producers’ quotations basically flat. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 24,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

This week (July 4–10, 2026), the secondary aluminum market outside China remained in the doldrums, with the price centers of aluminum scrap and ADC12 declining further. As the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East gradually faded, market trading logic returned to supply-demand fundamentals, while downstream procurement demand remained sluggish, pushing aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum alloy prices outside China under pressure. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish.

[SMM Secondary Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] China’s secondary aluminum alloy market quotations were generally stable with a slight rise today, with the SMM ADC12 price up 50 yuan/mt MoM to 24,050 yuan/mt. The rebound in aluminum prices and costs fluctuating at highs remained the core factors supporting enterprises to hold prices firm. However, the pace of downstream demand recovery was slow, order growth was modest, and some enterprises were concerned about whether deals could follow through after the price increase, with most choosing to hold prices stable and wait on the sidelines. In the near term, the market is likely to fluctuate in a narrow range with strong downside resistance, but upside room is also limited.

[SMM Analysis]Supply Tightening Offsets Off-season Pressure, June ADC12 Price Center Expected to Rise

This week, overseas aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum markets continued to fluctuate at relatively high levels. Affected by Middle East tensions, tight shipping logistics and fluctuations in LME aluminum prices, overall market sentiment remained cautious. The industry generally continued to show a market pattern characterized by “strong cost support and downstream demand mainly driven by rigid procurement needs.” Aluminum scrap market In the aluminum scrap market, Malaysia’s mixed aluminum casting scrap Tense prices remained stable at USD 2,600/mt this week after rising last week, with overall market quotations relatively steady. Malaysia’s aluminum cable scrap Talon prices edged up slightly from MYR 14,250/mt (~USD 3,593/mt) to MYR 14,300/mt (~USD 3,605/mt). Meanwhile, baled used beverage can (UBC) prices saw a noticeable correction, falling by MYR 850 from MYR 10,500/mt (~USD 2,647/mt) to MYR 9,650/mt (~USD 2,433/mt). SMM indicates this price adjustment was mainly due to some companies restructuring their quotation systems and pricing mechanisms, rather than a significant weakening in end-user demand. In Thailand, Talon prices increased from THB 117,500/mt (~USD 3,601/mt) last week to THB 122,500/mt (~USD 3,755/mt), while baled UBC prices remained relatively stable around THB 85,500/mt (~USD 2,621/mt), indicating relatively limited overall market fluctuations. SMM analysis indicates that the overseas aluminum scrap market continues to be supported by tight supply conditions. Ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to affect global aluminum scrap circulation, with shipping delays and rerouting still occurring in some regions, keeping freight and import costs elevated. Some market participants reported that European-origin scrap has been more heavily affected by shipping disruptions, leading buyers to gradually shift procurement preference toward U.S.-origin scrap with relatively more stable logistics, further supporting imported aluminum scrap prices. At the same time, local supply of high-quality aluminum scrap in Southeast Asia remains tight. Some downstream factories in Malaysia continue to increase their reliance on imported aluminum scrap, further reflecting that regional supply-side pressure has not eased significantly. SMM estimates that the domestic and overseas aluminum scrap price spread in China remains around RMB 2,500–3,000/mt, leaving arbitrage opportunities for certain products and providing continued support for aluminum scrap trading activity in Southeast Asia. On the demand side, overseas ADC12 producers and secondary aluminum enterprises are still mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. Although aluminum scrap prices remain at relatively high levels, downstream buyers have become more cautious compared with earlier periods, and transaction speeds for high-priced materials have slowed somewhat. Overall, the market continues to be dominated by procurement on a need-only basis. Secondary aluminum ADC12 market In the ADC12 market, Malaysia’s domestic ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy prices remained stable this week at MYR 13.30/kg (~USD 3,353/mt), while FOB prices held steady at USD 3,395/mt, with overall market trends remaining relatively stable. In Thailand, domestic ADC12 prices rose alongside higher LME aluminum prices, increasing from THB 110/kg (~USD 3,372/mt) last week to THB 112/kg (~USD 3,433/mt), while FOB prices remained largely stable around USD 3,370/mt throughout the week. SMM analysis shows that some ADC12 producers already have orders scheduled through July and August. While order-taking remains cautious, operations are generally stable. As a result, producers currently prefer maintaining stable quotations rather than continuing to aggressively raise prices. Some manufacturers are also retaining a certain level of spot inventory to cope with potential raw material supply fluctuations and unexpected order demand. In addition, some customers have recently begun delaying shipment schedules and slowing cargo pickups, mainly due to limited acceptance of high prices among end-users and continued market uncertainty regarding future price trends. In the Indian market, although Indian buyers are offering relatively higher prices, some companies still remain cautious toward concluding transactions. Overall, SMM expects overseas aluminum scrap and ADC12 markets to continue fluctuating at relatively high but stable levels in the short term. Future market direction will still depend on developments in the Middle East situation, shipping recovery conditions, LME aluminum price movements, and actual downstream order-taking and cargo pickup activity. Exchange Rate Reference: 1 USD = 3.96 MYR 1 USD = 32.62 THB

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Driven by the rebound in futures, the secondary aluminum alloy market saw quoted prices edge up today, with mainstream increases of 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices accordingly to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains would still require substantive improvement on the demand side.