[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[Geopolitical Tensions Boost LME, China Inventory Buildup and Weakening Demand Under Pressure] In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse. The strength in LME will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high inventory and weak demand in China will suppress overall gains. Going forward, the focus should be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

In April, rare earth oxide production showed a slight overall decline, with all major products seeing varying degrees of MoM reduction. Supply-side disruptions became one of the market's key focal points for the month.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

[Strait Blockade Remains in Stalemate, LME Outperforms SHFE for Aluminum] Overall, the strait blockade continued. The supply gap outside China and the ongoing drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well, while China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Swung Wildly in Night Session to Close Higher, ADC12 Moved Sideways Driven by Cost] The most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract surged to an intraday high of 24,245 yuan/mt overnight before pulling back rapidly, once probing the low of 24,035 yuan/mt during the session, exhibiting a pattern of wild swings. Prices gradually stabilized and rebounded in the latter half of the night session, with the center steadily rising amid repeated tug-of-war around the average price line, recovering most intraday losses by the close. It finally settled at 24,155 yuan/mt, up 0.04% from the previous close.

[Short-Term Supply-Demand Resonance, Bullish Trend in Aluminum Prices Continues] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process experienced repeated setbacks, but the supply gap outside China and continued LME inventory drawdown supported LME prices to hold up well. China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Rising Primary Aluminum Prices Push Up Costs, While Weak Supply and Demand Constrain Secondary Aluminum Gains

Shanxi Province recently issued the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Shanxi Province. The Outline proposes to focus on developing high-end products such as special steel, aluminum-magnesium lightweight structural components, and high-end copper alloy strips and sheets. The province is expected to advance exploration of bauxite, dolomite, iron ore, copper ore, gold ore, graphite ore, high-purity quartz, and helium, and enhance the supply security of strategic mineral resources. The plan also encourages the vigorous development of recycled metals and supports enterprises in establishing scrap recycling systems.