Britain’s growing aluminium scrap exports are raising concerns about the long-term availability of a critical raw material for domestic industries. According to Make UK, aluminium scrap exports reached 624,314 tonnes in 2025, up 43% from 2016 levels, while shipments to India increased 94% to nearly 199,000 tonnes. Exports to the US surged 989% year-on-year to 23,560 tonnes after aluminium scrap was excluded from Section 232 tariff measures. Make UK estimates the UK could require up to 6 million tonnes of recyclable aluminium scrap to support total aluminium demand of 8 million tonnes by 2035. The organisation warned that continued scrap outflows could weaken domestic manufacturing, discourage investment and reduce supply chain resilience. It called for greater investment in scrap collection, sorting and processing infrastructure, improved recycling standards and measures to retain critical aluminium alloys within the UK’s circular economy.

New analysis from Make UK suggests the UK’s aluminium scrap collection and sorting sector will need to grow by around 25% annually to meet future demand outlined in the country’s Modern Industrial Strategy. The report highlighted that aluminium scrap exports have risen 84% over the past decade, reducing domestic availability of a key raw material for industries including defence, clean energy, digital technologies and automotive manufacturing. In 2024-25, UK scrap aluminium exports to the US surged from 2,000 tonnes to 24,000 tonnes after Section 232 tariffs excluded aluminium scrap, while exports to India reached approximately 200,000 tonnes. Make UK estimates total UK aluminium demand could reach 8 million tonnes by 2035, requiring around 6 million tonnes of recyclable scrap. The organisation warned that continued export growth could weaken domestic manufacturing competitiveness, investment and supply chain resilience, and called for greater investment in scrap collection, sorting and processing capacity within the UK.

The Aluminium Packaging Recycling Organisation (Alupro) has urged policymakers to strengthen measures that keep more recycled aluminium within the UK, warning that large volumes of scrap aluminium continue to be exported overseas. The organisation noted that demand for aluminium is expected to increase across sectors including packaging, automotive, construction, transport, defence and energy infrastructure, making secure domestic supply increasingly important. Alupro supports policies such as Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), a nationwide Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) and improvements to recycling systems to boost collection rates and material recovery. While opinions remain divided over potential scrap export restrictions, the organisation believes greater efforts are needed to retain recycled aluminium within the domestic supply chain. Alupro also called for closer cooperation between government and industry to improve scrap classification, traceability and material retention to support the UK’s circular economy and manufacturing sector.

US iron and steel scrap exports totaled 1 million tonnes in April 2026, down 27.1% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year, per the US International Trade Commission. Canada was the top destination at 185,406 tonnes (+187.9% MoM), followed by Mexico (144,175 tonnes), Turkey (136,066 tonnes), and Thailand (79,886 tonnes). Export value reached 480.82 million USD, down from 669.24 million USD in March and 464.46 million USD in April 2025.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) reported that global recycled steel consumption grew by 4.5% year-on-year to 480 million metric tons (mt) in 2025 across key markets, even as global crude steel output fell by 1.9% to approximately 1.85 billion mt. Global direct reduced iron (DRI) production also climbed 4.9% to 153 million mt, largely driven by India's 7.4% output increase to 58.9 million mt. In terms of trade flows, the EU-27 and the US remained the largest scrap exporters at 16.68 million mt and 11.76 million mt, respectively, while Turkey retained its position as the top importer with 18.76 million mt despite a 6.6% volume decline. Pakistan posted exceptionally strong import growth, surging 39.8% to 3.02 million mt. This decoupling of scrap consumption from total crude steel production underscores the accelerating global shift toward lower-carbon electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking. The sustained demand for scrap and DRI signals structurally tighter future raw material supplies, which will continually reshape global trade dynamics as countries secure resources for decarbonization.

Aluminum associations from the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan highlighted OECD data showing that global aluminum-sector subsidies totaled USD118.3 billion during 2005-2024, with China accounting for USD101.4 billion, or 86% of the total. In 2024 alone, China received USD10.2 billion of the sector’s USD11.1 billion global subsidies. Industry groups noted that China’s share of global primary aluminum output has risen from 11% to 61% over the past two decades, with subsidy-supported growth extending into downstream processing and recycling. The associations called for coordinated measures, including import monitoring systems, tariff alignment and potential scrap export restrictions, to strengthen supply-chain security and support fair competition.

[SMM Steel] Japan exported 2.35 million mt of ferrous scrap in January-April 2026, down 9.9% year on year, while April exports fell 10.1% YoY to 667,678 mt. Vietnam remained the largest importer of Japanese scrap during the period, importing 1.02 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Bangladesh imported 516,219 mt, up 22.3%, while South Korea imported 350,019 mt, down 17.9% YoY. Meanwhile, Japanese scrap exports to Thailand more than doubled to 173,869 mt during the four-month period.

The global copper scrap market is entering a period of structural tightening as geopolitical tensions and industrial policy increasingly reshape trade flows. The relationship between the United States and China sits at the center of this transition, particularly as Washington considers restricting exports of high-quality copper scrap in 2027 while China remains heavily dependent on imported secondary copper feedstock. China’s copper scrap imports remained strong in 2024 at 441,080 MT, underscoring continued demand from secondary refiners serving the EV, renewable energy, power grid, and manufacturing sectors. However, imports have collapsed in 2025 to 143,271 MT, with current projections for 2026 falling further to just 5,305 MT. The sharp decline signals a rapid deterioration in China’s direct access to imported scrap feedstock amid rising geopolitical friction and tariffs. China’s existing 10% tariff on US-origin scrap has already reduced the competitiveness of direct shipments, although clean high-grade material has continued to move because of favorable processing economics. Trade flows indicate that copper scrap is increasingly being rerouted through Southeast Asia rather than moving directly from the United States into China. US copper scrap exports to ASEAN rose from 170,687 tonnes in 2024 to 222,993 tonnes in 2025, while Chinese imports of copper scrap from ASEAN increased from 434,176 tonnes to 529,345 tonnes over the same period. The correlation strongly suggests ASEAN is emerging as a critical intermediary hub for scrap aggregation, processing, blending, and re-export into China. This shift reflects a broader restructuring of the global scrap trade as market participants adapt to tariffs, geopolitical risk, and the growing probability of tighter controls on high-quality US scrap exports. Countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are increasingly functioning as alternative routing channels within the global secondary copper supply chain. The timing is significant because the United States continues to export around 1 million tonnes of copper scrap globally in 2025 while domestic secondary refinery production remains limited at approximately 50kt. This imbalance is becoming central to the policy debate in Washington. As US demand for copper accelerates through grid modernization, electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and defense manufacturing, policymakers are increasingly questioning whether high-grade recyclable copper should continue flowing overseas while the US remains dependent on imported refined copper. Current policy discussions focus on retaining a larger share of premium copper scrap within the domestic market beginning as early as 2027. Although proposals currently stop short of a full export ban, any retention mechanism would still materially reduce export availability for high-quality grades such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper scrap. For China, tighter access to premium scrap has important implications beyond the secondary market. High-quality scrap directly competes with refined copper cathode because it offers high recovery rates with lower processing intensity than primary smelting. If imported scrap availability continues to tighten, Chinese refiners will likely need to increase refined copper purchases to maintain output levels. This dynamic could become increasingly supportive for refined copper markets globally. The primary copper market is already facing structural constraints from weak mine supply growth, declining ore grades, permitting delays, and years of underinvestment in new projects. A simultaneous tightening in high-grade scrap availability would amplify pressure on refined copper balances precisely as demand linked to electrification continues to strengthen. As a result, the market could see narrower scrap discounts relative to cathode, firmer copper premiums in Asia, and increased volatility across both COMEX and LME pricing. The secondary copper market is therefore becoming an increasingly important variable in the broader refined copper outlook. Ultimately, the copper scrap market is no longer operating purely on economic arbitrage. Strategic resource security is becoming a defining driver of trade flows and policy decisions. The rapid growth in ASEAN intermediary trade, combined with collapsing direct Chinese scrap imports and growing US policy intervention, signals that the global copper supply chain is entering a new phase of fragmentation — one that is likely to tighten both scrap and refined copper markets into 2026 and beyond. Author: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst For more information or to discuss market dynamics, you can contact me on shairazahmed@smm.cn

[Copper Scrap Exports from Core Supplying Countries Pulled Back in April] Thailand and Japan, the top two supplying countries, both saw their exports to China decline MoM in April, with Thailand down 14.22% MoM and Japan down 17.60% MoM. Although their combined share still exceeded 30%, the MoM growth disappeared, weakening their support for overall imports.