On July 31, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$159.37/dmt, down $4.61/dmt from the previous -$154.76/dmt. In July, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) was -$148.28/dmt, down $26.84/dmt from June's -$121.44/dmt. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, the copper concentrates spot market saw more index-based deals, with some mines conducting tenders. In terms of spot deals, there were five index-deducted transactions this week, two of which used only the SMM index as a benchmark. A trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at the SMM index minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of Sierra Gorda at the index minus $23/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at the SMM and FM index flat minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5. There were market rumors that a trader sold 20,000 mt of Q4 clean ore at the index minus $20 to a smelter, of which 10,000 mt of Carmen ore with silver at 20g was priced at 90%. Also, rumors that a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of Q4 cargoes at the index minus $25/dmt. In terms of mine tenders, the results of a large mine's tender were out, with market rumors that 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the smelter side at -$220/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the trader side at around -$275/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); additionally, 10,000 mt of QB was traded on the trader side at prices ranging from -$275/dmt to -$280/dmt for October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option). Furthermore, 10,000 mt of BISHA and around 2,000 mt of Black Mountain for September-October shipment were tendered, with the results currently unknown. Overall, this week's spot deals continued to be mainly in the index-minus format, with deductions remaining at deep levels; mine tender prices fell further. Smelters maintained restocking demand but remained relatively limited in accepting deeply negative-priced cargoes. On July 29, First Quantum Minerals said it was accelerating preparations to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama, having already begun processing stockpiled ore in advance and added around 1,000 jobs. The company stated that formal negotiations with the Panamanian government over the future arrangements of the mine are gradually approaching. In May this year, the company started the first of three grinding lines, processing approximately 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore in Q2 and producing 3,216 mt of copper concentrates. Cobre Panama currently has about 38 million mt of stockpiled ore, expected to recover approximately 70,000 mt of copper, supporting about 12 months of production at the current processing pace. The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 30,000 to 40,000 mt, all from stockpiled ore processing. Meanwhile, the number of mine employees increased from about 2,350 in early April to approximately 3,000 at end-June, to support equipment commissioning, maintenance, and operational preparations. Over half of the new hires came from communities near the mine site, with female employees accounting for about 17% of new recruits. Currently, the Panamanian government is studying various options for restarting the mine, including establishing a state-owned mining company to jointly operate the mine with First Quantum, or a model where First Quantum holds a 60% to 65% interest and the government holds the remainder. The company had previously suspended the $20 billion international arbitration against the Panamanian government, creating conditions for continued negotiations between the two parties. On July 29, Glencore released its H1 2026 production report, showing that its own-sourced copper production in H1 was 397,000 mt, up 15% YoY from 343,900 mt. The production growth was mainly driven by increased mined volumes and improved feed grades in African copper operations, along with higher grades at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, partially offset by the planned closure of the Mount Isa copper mine in Australia in July 2025. Glencore maintained its 2026 own-sourced copper production guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 mt, with approximately 53% of annual copper production expected to be released in H2. The company stated that ore recovery rates and mining performance at the Collahuasi copper mine are expected to improve in H2, supporting a QoQ increase in copper production. Furthermore, although Glencore completed the sale of the Kidd Mine on June 1, reducing annual copper production by about 11,000 mt, the company has not lowered its full-year guidance. On July 28, Rio Tinto announced its H1 2026 results, with underlying earnings reaching $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY, the highest level for the same period in nearly four years. Within this, the copper and aluminum businesses, driven by demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, and the energy transition, together contributed about 56% of profit, surpassing the iron ore business for the first time to become the company's primary earnings driver. By business, copper EBITDA surged 84% YoY to $5.7 billion; iron ore EBITDA was $6.8 billion, down 1% YoY. The company stated that copper production growth and improved production efficiency in H1 were key drivers of earnings growth, while also benefiting from higher copper prices. As of July 31, 2026, SMM 11-port copper concentrates inventory stood at 664,400 mt in physical content, up 2,900 mt in physical content from July 24. The increases mainly came from Jinzhou Port and Qingdao Port, up 30,000 mt and 10,000 mt WoW, respectively; the decreases mainly came from Nanjing Port and Qinzhou Port, down 10,000 mt and 19,000 mt WoW, respectively. Overall inventory was basically flat.

SMM News, July 31: According to SMM data, total aluminum production outside China in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to lower plant loads at Middle Eastern smelters. The daily average production outside China rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by advancing production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as production ramp-ups and new capacity commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other regions. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China, summarized as follows: On July 1, Hydro announced on its official website that the Slovalco smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing the resumption of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in Q4 2026. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the Line 1 pots at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced progress in restoring production at its Al Taweelah plant. All anode removal from the pots was complete; pot cleaning was about 90% finished; and over 20% of the pots had been cleared of solidified aluminum. The first repaired pot was successfully restarted on May 26, and as of July 2, 89 pots (out of a total of 1,262) were in operation. On July 3, Vedanta Aluminum released its production report, showing that the Balco smelter recorded aluminum production of 168,000 mt in FY27 (Q2 2026), up 10% QoQ and 17% YoY, mainly driven by trial production from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 performance report, noting that aluminum capacity at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60 continued to rise. The last two potlines at the Arvida smelter were shut down as planned in June, and the Arvida AP60 is planned to reach full production by the end of this year. On July 16, Alcoa announced its Q2 results, with production reaching 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly driven by the completion of the restart at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing ramp-up at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and completed restarts at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue advancing; new projects that started production earlier in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to keep ramping up production; and the expanded capacity at India's Balco is expected to sustain its production ramp-up. Although conflict in the Middle East erupted once again, market feedback indicated that it did not affect aluminum smelter production again. Overall, aluminum production outside China is expected to maintain its MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors have emerged that construction progress of aluminum projects in the Middle East, Indonesia, and other areas is slower than expected. Going forward, close attention should be paid to announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India.

SMM News, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total outside-China aluminum production in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to a YoY decline in operating rates at Middle East aluminum smelters. Outside-China daily average production rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by ongoing production resumptions at smelters in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as output increases brought by project ramp-ups and power-on commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other locations. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China. The details are as follows: On July 1, an announcement on Hydro’s official website showed that the Slovalco aluminum smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing it to resume production of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in 2026 Q4. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the No. 1 potline at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced that its plant in Al Taweelah had made progress in restoring production: anode removal for all pots had been fully completed; pot cleaning was about 90% complete; and solidified aluminum blocks in over 20% of pots had been cleared. On May 26, the first repaired pot was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 pots were in operation (1,262 pots in total). On July 3, Vedanta Aluminium released a production report showing that in FY27 (2026 Q2), aluminum production at the Balco smelter reached 168,000 mt, up 10% QoQ and up 17% YoY, mainly benefiting from trial production output from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 results report, noting continued capacity increases at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60. The last two potlines at the Arvida aluminum smelter were closed as planned in June, and Arvida AP60 is expected to reach full production by year-end. On July 16, Alcoa released its Q2 results report. Its production reached 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly benefiting from the completion of production resumptions at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing production resumptions at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and the completion of production resumptions at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue; new projects previously commissioned in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to continue ramping up production; and Balco’s expanded capacity in India is expected to continue ramping up. Although the Middle East conflict has flared up again, market feedback indicates it has not affected smelter production again. Overall, outside-China aluminum production is expected to maintain the MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that construction progress for some aluminum projects in the Middle East and Indonesia has fallen short of expectations, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent announcements from relevant smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

Rio Tinto reported underlying earnings of US$6.85 billion for the first half of 2026, up 43% year-on-year and the highest first-half result in four years. Driven by electrification, artificial intelligence and energy transition demand, its copper and aluminum businesses together contributed about 56% of group profits, surpassing iron ore for the first time. Copper EBITDA rose 84% year-on-year to US$5.7 billion, while iron ore EBITDA declined 1% to US$6.8 billion. The company said higher copper production, stronger commodity prices and productivity improvements were the key drivers of earnings growth. Rio Tinto also reported that productivity initiatives generated approximately US$870 million in benefits during the first half and remain on track to deliver annualized gains of US$1.8 billion by year-end. The company maintained its 2026 production guidance and declared an interim dividend of US$2.11 per share, its highest interim payout in four years. The miner added that it expects to achieve around half of its previously announced US$5–10 billion portfolio optimization target by the end of this year, while acknowledging uncertainties surrounding its 2030 emissions reduction target.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Rio Tinto has signed a five-year offtake agreement with Australian bioenergy company SuperChar to supply locally produced bio pellets for its Gladstone alumina refineries, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2028. The agreement follows operational trials showing bio pellets could replace up to 30% of the coal used to generate steam in refinery boilers, supporting Rio Tinto's efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption in alumina refining. SuperChar plans to build a bio pellet production facility in the Gladstone region with an initial capacity of 35,000 tonnes per year using locally grown bana grass as feedstock. At full contract volumes, the project could reduce Rio Tinto's reported Scope 1 emissions by up to 90,000 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually, while Rio Tinto will initially deploy the bio pellets at the Yarwun refinery before expanding to Queensland Alumina Ltd, subject to approvals and operational readiness.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Rio Tinto reported a 28% year-on-year increase in underlying EBITDA to US$14.8 billion and a 75% rise in free cash flow to US$6.9 billion in the first half of 2026, supported by stronger commodity prices and improved operational performance. The company declared an interim ordinary dividend of US$3.4 billion, up 43% year on year, while maintaining its full-year production guidance across its major commodities. Rio Tinto's aluminum segment benefited from higher realized aluminum prices, although alumina earnings were partly offset by lower third-party sales and higher raw material costs. The company said it has already delivered US$870 million in productivity gains and remains on track to achieve an annualized run-rate of US$1.8 billion by the end of 2026 while continuing to invest in high-return growth projects.

On July 29, Rio Tinto announced its 2026 H1 results. According to the data, in H1, Rio Tinto's underlying earnings reached $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY; net profit was $6.66 billion, up 47% YoY. In H1, net cash generated from operating activities was $9.2 billion, underlying EBITDA was $14.8 billion, underlying ROIC was 17%, underlying earnings per share were 421.4¢, dividends per ordinary share were 211¢, and the payout ratio was 50%.

Rio Tinto has signed a cooperation agreement with Australian bioenergy company SuperChar (SCL) to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels at its Gladstone alumina refinery. The five-year agreement stipulates that SCL will supply locally produced bio-pellet fuel, with formal supply planned to begin in 2028. This collaboration follows multiple rounds of industrial trials and feasibility studies by Rio Tinto and represents the next phase in the company's evaluation of bio-pellet fuel application. Rio Tinto is exploring various feasible pathways to reduce fossil fuel consumption in alumina smelting, with bio-pellet fuel being a key option. Previous trials tested various bio-pellet and coal blending ratios, showing that under test conditions, bio-pellets could replace up to 30% of the coal in the refinery's boilers. According to the agreement, Rio Tinto will conduct multiple industrial trials and performance evaluations, using bio-pellets and coal in blends ranging from 5% to 50% in the Gladstone alumina refinery's boilers.

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.