SMM June 6 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%, LME copper fell 2.78%, and LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1% (LME aluminum fell 1.84%, LME zinc fell 1.52%, and SHFE copper fell 1.84%). The declines for the remaining metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.65%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with only stainless steel falling by 0.14%. All other metals rose, with hot-rolled coil and rebar up around 0.4% (hot-rolled coil rose 0.47% and rebar rose 0.44%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold fell 3.35%, posting a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver tumbled 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, recording a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%, and SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US once again recorded strong job growth in May, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping's Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping's first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and North Korea has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Both sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push China-North Korea relations for greater development while advancing with the times, enhancing the well-being of the two peoples, and making greater contributions to regional and even global peace, stability, development, and prosperity. (Xinhua News Agency) China: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council Executive Meeting on June 5. The meeting pointed out that, based on the characteristics of future industries, it is necessary to further strengthen forward-looking layout and intensify promotion efforts to firmly grasp the initiative in development. Efforts must be made to solidify the technological foundation by continuously increasing investment in basic research and systematically deploying original and disruptive technological breakthroughs. Emphasis should be placed on ecosystem building by promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation along the industry chain, and cultivating more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Employees may withdraw the stored balance in their housing provident fund accounts under any of the following circumstances: (1) paying rent; (2) purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling self-occupied housing; (3) repaying principal and interest on home purchase loans; (4) decorating self-occupied housing up to a specified limit; (5) paying property management fees for self-occupied housing; (6) retiring or resigning; (7) completely losing work capacity and terminating the employment (personnel) relationship with the employer; (8) emigrating and settling abroad; (9) other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mini- and Small-Sized Passenger Car Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of EV charging facilities in highway service areas, with 30,000 new or upgraded EV charging facilities (charging guns) with power above 60 kW to be completed in highway service areas (including rest areas) by the end of 2028. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07, following data that showed strong US job performance in May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, with jobs data for the previous two months revised upward. The average job growth over the last three months marked the best performance in over two years, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience far exceeding overall market expectations. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos noted that the re-acceleration of hiring this spring will provide further ammunition for Fed officials concerned about inflation and believing current interest rates are too low to suppress a new round of price pressures. Some officials have recently hinted that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back part of the three 25-basis-point rate cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were made to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier than it did then. This jobs report won't entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it further illustrates that the case for cutting rates in the near term has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for rate hikes currently stems from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks, including AI infrastructure buildout, tariffs, and energy, could keep inflation persistently well above the Fed's 2% target, even if progress is made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. If the Fed stays on hold while inflation rises, real inflation-adjusted rates would decline. Even if the labour market isn't the main driver, this mechanism could become a key factor fueling debate over rate hikes. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed's Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly in balance, rate hikes could become appropriate in the near term. Hammack said that while she never focuses too much on any single data point, today's jobs report reaffirms that the labour market seems roughly in balance. She noted that the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% is broadly consistent with what she defines as full employment. Given the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, holding rates steady is sensible for now. But if recent trends continue, action could be needed soon. This essentially echoed remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, the May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, prompting the US interest rate futures market to sharply increase bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. According to LSEG data, interest rate futures markets now price in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the release of the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market continues to widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Stronger than expected employment data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforcing investor judgement that the Fed could resume raising rates later in the year to address inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (vs. 96.4% prior to the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Next week, China side, China will release data including the May CPI yoy, May PPI yoy, May Trade Balance (pending), and May M2 Money Supply yoy (pending). US side, data to be released includes the US May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP Employment for the week ending May 23, April Trade Balance, May Existing Home Sales Annualized Rate, April Wholesale Sales m/m, May unadjusted CPI yoy, May seasonally adjusted CPI m/m, May seasonally adjusted Core CPI m/m, May unadjusted Core CPI yoy, US 10-Year Note Auction rate and bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending June 10, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI yoy, May PPI m/m, June preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, and June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Germany side, data to be released includes the German April seasonally adjusted Industrial Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Trade Balance, and May final CPI m/m. Eurozone side, data to be released includes the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, ECB Deposit Facility Rate for the period through June 11, and ECB Main Refinancing Rate for the period through June 11. UK side, data to be released includes the UK April 3-month GDP m/m, April Manufacturing Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Goods Trade Balance, and April Industrial Production m/m. Other data to be released includes the Bank of Canada rate decision for the period through June 10, France May final CPI m/m, Japan April Trade Balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index. Additionally, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BOC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: At the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell collectively. WTI crude fell 3%, and Brent crude declined 2.37%, though both recorded weekly gains (WTI crude up 3.31% for the week, Brent crude up 1.82% for the week). Overnight oil prices fell mainly due to reduced market concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict. On the 5th, while at a campaign event in Wisconsin, former President Trump tweeted that he would swiftly end the war with Iran, removing a key driver of high prices. As the midterm elections approach, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran conflict has led to rising oil prices and higher living costs, pressuring Republican electoral prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. It expects rapid production recovery in the region, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries combined with potentially more aggressive OPEC policy could reignite oversupply conditions in 2026 Q4 and push oil prices lower once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around end-July (meaning a five-month effective closure period), our base case forecast is for Brent crude oil to average $87/bbl in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains over the exact timing of the strait's reopening, and risks to oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects temporary logistical supply disruptions rather than permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the strait to reopen around the end of July and believe Brent crude oil prices will fall significantly from elevated levels seen during the March to July period. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade against Iran and ongoing turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continue to curtail output. OPEC daily oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels in May (Iran accounting for half), dropping to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. The figures exclude the UAE, which left OPEC last month. Iran's daily oil production last month tumbled to 2.34 million barrels, the lowest in five years, a drop of 710,000 barrels. The US Central Command remains active in enforcing the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, now expecting that crude oil prices could remain around $100/bbl until 2028 even if the US reaches a peace agreement with Iran, because it now assumes a longer timeline for energy supply recovery from the Gulf region. The new analysis warns that pressures on energy prices are higher than previously expected, while the global economic outlook is also deteriorating. The UK government previously expected that Gulf region supplies could resume within about six months after the war ends, but it now believes that recovery could take as long as fourteen months. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to industry sources on June 5, POSCO Holdings received RIGI approval from the Argentine government for its Sal de Oro lithium project in Argentina. RIGI is a framework designed to attract large-scale investment in strategic industries such as energy, mining and technology. Once approved, companies can expect benefits such as lower corporate taxes, tariff exemptions and eased foreign exchange regulations.

SMM June 5 News: Metals market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals all declined. SHFE copper, aluminum, and lead each fell within 0.5%. SHFE zinc fell 0.88%, SHFE tin fell 4.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.68%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract edged down, alumina most-traded contract fell 0.75%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.37%, silicon metal most-traded contract fell 1.15%, and polysilicon most-traded futures contract fell 1.76%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore falling 0.84%, rebar and HRC both edging up 0.06%, and stainless steel falling 1.05%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.74%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.5%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.05%, LME aluminum fell 0.98%, LME lead fell 0.4%, LME zinc fell 0.99%, LME tin fell 2.05%, and LME nickel fell 0.21%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver fell 1.77%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.53%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.75%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.02%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight futures contract fell 0.68% to 3,660 points. As of 11:39 on June 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,335 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average for SX-EW copper was 105,250 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking four consecutive days of decline... Macro front Domestic side: [Strengthening fair competition: China Anti-Monopoly Enforcement Annual Report (2025) released] The State Administration for Market Regulation (the National Anti-Monopoly Bureau) released the China Anti-Monopoly Enforcement Annual Report (2025). The report noted that in 2025, the SAMR continued to step up anti-monopoly enforcement, filing 20 monopoly cases and concluding 22 throughout the year, with total fines and confiscations reaching 653 million yuan; steadily improved the quality and efficiency of business concentration regulation, concluding 706 merger cases, up 9.8% YoY; intensified efforts to remove local protectionism and market segmentation, issued the Implementation Measures for the Fair Competition Review Regulations, strengthened gatekeeping at the source for fair competition review, and market regulation departments at all levels reviewed nearly 60,000 policy measures during the year. (CCTV) [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 92 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 215 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 123 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the dollar front: As of 11:39, the US dollar index edged down 0.03% to 99.42. US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 came in at 225,000, above the expected 213,000 and the revised prior reading of 212,000, the highest since the first week of February. The four-week moving average was 214,750, up from 208,250 the previous week. Continuing claims stood at 1.777 million, slightly below the expected 1.78 million. The rise in initial claims indicates some softening in the labor market, though they remain at relatively low and stable levels. Continuing claims edged down. It should be noted that continuing claims data are reported with a one-week lag, so next week's data will correspond to this week's initial claims. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 96.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 3.6%. Through July, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 88.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike is 8.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp cut is 3.2%. The Fed's Mary Daly said that monetary policy is currently in a good place, but the economic situation is too uncertain to clearly determine the path of interest rates. Daly stated that providing forward guidance is not appropriate at this time because it is impossible to predict how the economy will evolve, and the most concerning issue is inflation, with the focus on rising energy and food prices. Bringing inflation back to target is the Fed's top priority. Daly also said that while there is no clear evidence in the economic data yet that AI is boosting productivity, she remains optimistic about the technology and believes 2027 will be a litmus test; at the same time, she sees no financial stability concerns related to AI investment. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, data including the US unemployment rate for May, US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May, US average hourly earnings year-over-year for May, US average hourly earnings month-over-month for May, UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-over-month for May, French industrial production month-over-month for April, French trade balance for April, Eurozone Q1 revised GDP annual growth rate, and Eurozone Q1 final seasonally adjusted employment change quarter-over-quarter will be released. Additionally, 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid participated in a fireside chat, while 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, oil prices on both exchanges moved sideways, with WTI up 0.19% and Brent up 0.46%. The market focused on developments in the geopolitical conflict. UK-based maritime analytics firm Windward reported on the 4th that satellite imagery showed loading operations had resumed at Iran’s key oil export hub, Kharg Island. The report stated that satellite images captured on June 2 showed a very large crude carrier (VLCC) moored near the western offshore terminal of Kharg Island, marking the first confirmed vessel to berth since the facility halted operations in early May due to a suspected oil leak. On June 3, loading operations were underway simultaneously for the VLCC at the western berth and a Panamax tanker at the eastern T-jetty. By the 4th, the VLCC had completed loading and departed, while the Panamax remained berthed at the terminal. Windward noted that the simultaneous resumption of services at both terminals indicates Iran is actively working to restore crude export capacity. The report also highlighted continued frequent activity by small fast-attack craft of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) throughout the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing high tempo of operations suggests that the IRGC Navy remains on heightened alert to support Iran-linked vessels in the Strait. (Xinhua News Agency) On Friday, an explosion occurred near the Mina Al Fahal crude terminal in Oman. Details on the cause and scale remain limited, but the incident was reportedly a drone attack. The spillover of geopolitical risks has drawn close attention from multiple parties. (Jin10 Data App) Furthermore, eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to review supply policy for March. According to delegates, OPEC+ is still prepared to approve the suspension of production increases, even after US threats against member Iran helped push oil prices to $70. A delegate previously suggested that a major supply disruption could prompt the group to act, but for now, their stance appeared unaffected by this week’s crude price rally. OPEC+ faces a more uncertain choice at its subsequent monthly meeting, which will likely be held in early March, when it must decide on a course of action after the Q1 production-increase pause expires. Other members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already shown notable signs of eagerness to continue restoring output. However, whether further increases are feasible is another question. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[E-Bike Market Updates] According to the website of the Foshan Municipal Administration for Market Regulation in Guangdong Province, the Foshan Municipal Administration for Market Regulation recently issued a notice on the quality supervision and random inspection of e-bikes and accessories in 2025 (Notice No. 8 of 2026). A total of 5 models of e-bikes and accessories were found to be non-compliant in this inspection.

This week, the operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing industry leaders was recorded at 64%, edging down 0.1 percentage point WoW, with significant divergence across sub-sectors. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy edged up 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%; although supply remained normal, demand recovery was slow, and the rate is expected to hold steady in the short term. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip edged down 0.2 percentage points to 72.0%, with robust export orders offsetting weak domestic demand caused by high aluminum prices. The operating rates of aluminum wire and cable and aluminum extrusion held flat at 68.0% and 57.6% respectively; aluminum wire and cable benefited from a significant increase in aluminum stranded wire exports. Extrusion side, steady growth in home decoration orders partially offset the drag from weak real estate recovery, while industrial extrusion demand remained solid, expected to hold up well in the short term. The operating rates of aluminum foil and secondary aluminum producers declined 0.3 and 1 percentage point respectively to 73.3% and 53.9%, affected by multiple factors including fading peak season, air-conditioner foil drag, bill supervision tightening, and weakening demand, facing sustained downward pressure going forward. Overall, strong exports partially compensated for insufficient domestic demand, but high aluminum prices, cost pressure, and off-season factors continued to constrain the industry's upside room. Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate of China's industry leaders in primary aluminum alloy rose 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%. Supply side, enterprises maintained normal production schedules overall. Some enterprises saw operating rates rebound recently as prior inventory had been largely depleted. Demand side, the aluminum price center shifted lower this month MoM, but downstream spot order quotes remained generally scarce, with the market primarily executing long-term contracts as usual. As downstream demand recovered slowly, primary aluminum alloy enterprises intensified competition for limited orders, leading to a slight increase in overall inventory. Overall, with aluminum prices maintaining current levels, the stimulus effect on downstream consumption remained limited. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry is expected to stay at current levels, likely remaining stable next week. Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry leaders edged down 0.2 percentage points WoW to 72.0%. Operations side, plate/sheet, strip and foil industry leaders maintained a generally stable production pace, but disrupted shipment pace had not yet eased due to persistently high aluminum prices and downstream speculative purchasing patterns. Orders side, stable domestic can stock packaging demand provided a floor; ESS sector battery casings, brazing materials and other products maintained high operating rates as downstream orders extended into Q3, forming a key support; auto sheets benefited from MoM rebound in new energy vehicle sales in May and strong exports, with orders recovering at the margin. Export side, a stronger overseas market significantly benefited China's exports, with enterprises reporting export orders already extended to late August and beyond, with full orders on hand. However, the domestic commodity plate market faced a severe situation: aluminum ingot average prices had long operated at a high level of 24,000 yuan/mt, civilian aluminum semis demand contracted sharply, fixed-price engineering orders were widely delayed as picking up goods meant immediate losses, and domestic orders showed signs of weakening. In the short term, although strong exports could offset some weak domestic demand, aluminum price fluctuation risks intensified, and enterprises tended to control production schedule pace while destocking simultaneously. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip is expected to be under pressure in June. Aluminum wire and cable: The domestic aluminum wire and cable industry operating rate held steady at 68.0% this week, flat WoW. The industry operating rate stayed high during the week, mainly supported by strong export order activity. Resilient ex-China demand continued to drive enterprise production plans, and near-term industry orders remained focused on aluminum stranded wire export orders. In contrast, domestically, the pace of power grid construction project order placement was slower than expected at the beginning of the year. Recent power grid tenders were dominated by low-voltage and overhead lines, and the marginal boost from order production schedules to operating rates weakened. However, sustained volume growth in export orders effectively filled the gap in domestic demand, and the order structure continued to show a pattern of "strong exports, stable domestic." Under the current dynamic between high export growth and stable domestic demand, industry shipments maintained a dynamic balance, and operating rates are expected to remain resilient in the near term. Aluminum extrusion: The domestic aluminum extrusion operating rate held steady at 57.6% this week, with the industry continuing a mild operating trend overall. On the architectural extrusion side, home renovation orders maintained steady incremental growth recently. Combined with some enterprises having previously secured large-scale project orders such as supertall buildings and corporate headquarters, their volume advantage and longer delivery cycles provided sustained support for industry operations, partially offsetting the drag from weak real estate recovery. On the industrial extrusion side, demand in segments such as power systems, automotive lightweighting, and PV frames remained solid, supporting stable industry operations. Multiple large enterprises reported that May orders remained robust and held an optimistic outlook for June orders. However, some small and mid-sized industrial extrusion enterprises reported that to maintain healthy cash flow, they expect to moderately control order-taking to ease finished product inventory pressure. Some enterprises also proactively declined orders with low processing fees to maintain reasonable margins, leading to slight divergence in industry operations. Overall, off-season characteristics had not yet emerged, and the aluminum extrusion operating rate is expected to continue to hold up well next week. Aluminum foil: The operating rate of aluminum foil industry leaders pulled back 0.3 percentage points WoW to 73.3% this week. At the enterprise operation level, the traditional peak-season effect was gradually fading. Although orders on hand at industry leaders remained ample, structural divergence intensified. On the order side, demand for food packaging foil and pharmaceutical foil was at the tail end of the peak season, and domestic orders were set to face a seasonal pullback. Battery foil, on the other hand, benefited from robust battery end-use demand, with tight production schedules. However, the air-conditioner foil segment faced notable pressure: June household air conditioner domestic sales production schedules were sharply revised down YoY, downstream clients bargained aggressively, hydrophilic foil processing fees were running near cost, and the air-conditioner foil segment entered a downturn earlier than in previous years. In June, the packaging off-season effect and the drag from air-conditioner foil are expected to gradually dominate, with operating rates continuing to pull back. Secondary Aluminum: This week, the operating rate of secondary aluminum industry leaders fell 1 percentage point WoW to 53.9%, mainly weighed down by dual pressures from both the cost and demand sides. Cost side, invoice regulation continued to tighten with an expanded scope, and the shortage of compliant input invoices forced some secondary aluminum producers to cut production, significantly dampening their willingness to operate. Demand side, downstream consumption weakened further after June, with new orders for die-casting remaining sluggish. Although ADC12 prices were raised consecutively at the beginning of the week driven by costs, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high prices, restocking mainly on rigid demand with little willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, and transaction volumes failed to increase in tandem. Overall, if invoice issues continue to escalate and the off-season deepens further, the industry operating rate still faces downward pressure.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Export Demand Offsets Weak Domestic Consumption, China Domestic Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate and Adjust in the Short Term]

According to foreign media reports, the Ecuadorian government announced on May 29 that it would renegotiate the mining contract for the Cascabel copper mine, stating that its terms violated national laws and created an imbalance between the government and the company. The mining concession, located in Imbabura Province, was originally held by Australia's SolGold, and Jiangxi Copper Corporation completed its acquisition for approximately $1.16 billion in March this year. Ecuador's Minister of Energy and Environment stated that if renegotiation was refused, the government would seek another operator. The concession holder ENSA countered that the contract was signed in compliance with regulations and expressed willingness to communicate with the government. Ecuador has issued new minimum parameters for mining contracts, allowing the review or modification of existing contracts, though the previously signed Cangrejos gold mine contract is not subject to renegotiation.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW. This week, Peric Hydrogen, a subsidiary of CSSC 718 Research Institute, exported customized integrated hydrogen production and refueling station equipment to Indonesia. Suzhou Suqing Hydrogen Production Equipment Co., Ltd. completed the shipment of a 5 MW containerized green electricity hydrogen production system, serving the first "five-in-one" integrated energy station project combining oil, gas, hydrogen, electricity, and storage in Northwest China. Project-related updates: CGN (Wuhai Hainan District) New Energy Co., Ltd. : CGN (Wuhai Hainan District) New Energy's hydrogen-based green fuel grid-connected green electricity direct-connection project (hydrogen production section) was officially registered. The project is located in the High-tech Low-carbon Industrial Park in Hainan District, Wuhai City, with a total investment of 313.6992 million yuan. The project plans to build a 22,000 Nm³/h hydrogen production facility, equipped with 22 alkaline water electrolysis units each with a capacity of 1,000 Nm³/h, along with supporting gas-liquid separation and hydrogen purification facilities, producing hydrogen with a purity of 99.999%. The construction period is scheduled from November 2026 to November 2028. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd. : Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy selected its affiliated party, State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design & Research Institute, through public tender to undertake the EPC general contracting project for the hydrogen production facility, with a fixed contract price of 204.96 million yuan. The general contracting scope covers the design of the hydrogen production facility, procurement of equipment and materials excluding Party A-supplied electrolysis water complete sets of equipment and rectifier cabinets, civil construction, commissioning, operation and maintenance, and full-process warranty services, with qualified hydrogen output scheduled before August 30, 2027. Wojiang Clean Energy (Xinjiang Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone) Co., Ltd.: The general contracting contract for the Zhundong 2 billion m³/year coal-to-natural gas project was signed in Urumqi. The project is located in Changji Zhundong Economic Development Zone, with a total investment of 15.486 billion yuan. It is expected to commence production by the end of October 2026, with supporting output of multiple types of by-products. The project includes supporting electrolysis hydrogen production integrated with green methanol production, and plans a 650,000 mt/year CCUS carbon capture facility to be implemented in two phases, progressively achieving full green electricity coverage while simultaneously demonstrating large-scale crushed coal pressurized gasifiers to advance the scaling-up of coal-to-gas equipment. Da'an Jidian Green Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. : The Da'an wind and solar green hydrogen-to-ammonia integrated demonstration project issued a tender for additional equipment, planning to add one set of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production unit. The project broke ground in May 2023 and commenced production in July 2025, supported by 800 MW of wind and solar power capacity. It adopts a dual-route hydrogen production approach of 36,000 Nm³/h alkaline plus 9,600 Nm³/h PEM, with an annual output of 32,000 mt of green hydrogen and 180,000 mt of green ammonia, while simultaneously deploying two types of large-capacity hydrogen storage facilities using solid-state and organic liquid technologies. Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd.: Longyuan Power announced the winning candidate for the procurement of 500 Nm³/h PEM electrolyzer equipment for the Zhangye Carbon Neutrality Industrial Base Wind-Solar-Hydrogen-Storage Integration Project. Dongfang Electric (Chengdu) Hydrogen Energy ranked first with a bid of 6.3 million yuan. The project is located in the Circular Economy Demonstration Park of Zhangye Economic Development Zone and is SPIC Gansu's first green electricity-to-hydrogen project. It plans to build a 22,000 Nm³/h alkaline hydrogen production main unit with supporting hydrogen storage tanks, and simultaneously construct a 2,000 Nm³/h hydrogen production pilot platform including a 500 Nm³/h PEM unit. Yanchang Petroleum Gas Group Transportation Energy Company: The hydrogen refueling demonstration station at the Fuping Service Area (North Zone) on the Beijing-Kunming Expressway, constructed by the company, successfully achieved mechanical completion and entered the commissioning phase. The station is a standardized Level 3 hydrogen refueling station equipped with an intelligent hydrogen refueling control system capable of automated operations and full-process monitoring and traceability. After commissioning, the station will primarily serve hydrogen-powered heavy trucks and intercity hydrogen buses, filling the gap in hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Weinan section of the Beijing-Kunming Expressway and improving the hydrogen refueling network for the green freight loop from Hancheng to Fuping and Huangling. Guangdong Yuntao Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Two major hydrogen energy projects of Yuntao Hydrogen Energy were launched. Its Beitai Road hydrogen refueling station was officially put into operation, becoming a new benchmark hydrogen refueling station in south China. The station is a supporting project for the Minke Park, benchmarked against the Liangtian model hydrogen refueling station. It covers an area of 3,100 m², is equipped with 4 hydrogen dispensers and 8 hydrogen refueling nozzles, with a maximum 24-hour refueling capacity of 4,000 kg, capable of serving 200 hydrogen-powered dump trucks or 400 cold chain logistics vehicles per day, further improving the vehicle hydrogen refueling network in the Greater Bay Area. Huawang (Qingdao) Hydrogen Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd. : The pre-award announcement for the hydrogen refueling station equipment procurement project of Qingdao Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park was released. Shanghai Hydrogen Maple Energy and Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy were listed as the top two candidates, with bids of 14.18 million yuan and 13.67 million yuan, respectively. The project was jointly tendered by Huawang (Qingdao) Hydrogen Energy and PetroChina Pipeline Bureau Engineering. The total project investment is 70 million yuan, with a construction cost of 14.5 million yuan. The project covers an area of 5,761 m² and plans to build a Level 3 hydrogen refueling station with a building area of 1,302 m², designed for a maximum daily 12-hour hydrogen refueling capacity of 2,500 kg, equipped with 4 units of 35 MPa hydrogen dispensers and 8 hydrogen refueling nozzles. This tender covers the full process including complete hydrogen refueling equipment, valves, automation, electrical supply, and on-site installation and commissioning. Huadian New Energy Group Co., Ltd. Fujian Branch: The Quanzhou Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment approved the environmental impact assessment document for Huadian Fujian's 5 MW flexible off-grid seawater hydrogen production technology research and pilot verification project. The project is constructed by Huadian New Energy Group Co., Ltd. Fujian Branch and is located at the No. 10 wind turbine site of Quanhui Wind Farm in Quanhui Petrochemical Industrial Park. As a seawater-to-hydrogen pilot project, it relies on two on-site wind turbines for power supply to conduct off-grid electrolysis seawater hydrogen production experiments. The project covers a total area of 1,683.80 m², with a total operation duration of 1,000 hours and a total investment of 18.7 million yuan, of which 1.681 million yuan is for environmental protection. The overall system consists of six major functional modules and supporting utilities. Policy Review 1. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on the release of the Guidelines for Non-fossil Energy Electricity Consumption Accounting (Trial). The document states that coordination with energy statistics, carbon emission accounting, and other systems should be strengthened. Factors such as physical connections, electricity energy trading, and green electricity certificate and green electricity trading should be comprehensively considered to classify and clarify the rules for recognizing non-fossil energy electricity consumption and the accounting methods at the provincial (autonomous region, municipality directly under the central government, the same hereinafter) and municipal (prefecture-level) levels, as well as for electricity users. Recognition methods for non-fossil energy electricity consumption: Physical recognition. Self-generated and self-consumed electricity from non-fossil energy sources, and self-consumed electricity from new business models such as green electricity direct connection, are recognized as the non-fossil energy electricity consumption of the electricity user. Production electricity consumed by non-fossil energy power generation projects is recognized as the non-fossil energy electricity consumption of the respective power generation enterprise. Transaction recognition. This includes two recognition methods: electricity energy trading (including conventional non-fossil energy electricity trading, green electricity trading, etc., the same hereinafter) and green electricity certificate trading (including green electricity certificate transfers, etc., the same hereinafter). 2. The Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau and the Jilin Provincial Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Integrated and Converged Development of New Energy in Jilin Province. Overall objectives: By 2030, integrated and converged development will become an important approach for new energy development across the province. New scenarios featuring integration and convergence will continue to emerge. The province's new energy development models will be more flexible, consumption pathways more diversified, application scenarios more abundant, and the electricity market more dynamic. More than 50 integrated and converged projects and application scenarios will be completed, providing strong support for the comprehensive green transformation of the province's economic and social development. 3. The Guangdong Provincial Administration for Market Regulation issued a public notice soliciting opinions on the Guangdong provincial local standard Operational Specifications for Integrated Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Refueling Devices (Review Draft). The document states that this standard specifies the basic requirements, personnel management, equipment and facility management, hydrogen quality management, hydrogen refueling operation management, safety management, archive management, and data recording for the operation of integrated hydrogen production, storage, and refueling devices. Enterprise Updates Tianji Hydrogen Energy Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. : Tianji Hydrogen Energy successively signed agreements with Jiaqing New Energy and Manst Hydrogen Energy. The three parties will conduct in-depth industry chain cooperation in green hydrogen equipment and project development. According to the agreements, the parties will cooperate in multiple dimensions including electrolyzer and post-processing system procurement, joint project bidding, and agency sales. They will also establish strict intellectual property protection and exclusive collaboration mechanisms to ensure the stability and competitiveness of cooperative projects, and jointly tackle hydrogen energy application challenges across multiple scenarios. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: Huang Qiang, Secretary of the Jilin Provincial Party Committee, conducted a survey on major project construction in Changchun and Siping. He emphasized the need to fully implement the important instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping regarding work in Jilin, focus on building a modern industrial system and modern infrastructure system, and accelerate the advancement of major project construction. Jiangsu Trina Green Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. : Trina Green Hydrogen signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Nanjing Institute of the Fifth Electronics Research Institute of MIIT. The two parties will focus on the urgent needs for high-quality development of the PV+ESS+hydrogen industry, and conduct in-depth collaboration across five major areas: joint construction of a comprehensive PV+ESS+hydrogen testing platform, joint research on cutting-edge technologies, product detection and evaluation, industry standard development, and full-chain industrial technology services. Through the strong alliance model of "industry leader + authoritative scientific research and detection institution," they aim to address the shortcomings in PV+ESS+hydrogen equipment testing and verification. Enric (Bengbu) Compressor Co., Ltd. : Two large skid-mounted hydrogen pipeline compressors independently designed and with core technologies self-developed by the company successfully completed factory acceptance testing and were officially shipped for delivery. The equipment will support China's first long-distance green hydrogen transmission pipeline project. China Southern Power Grid Power Technology Co., Ltd.: The company completed core technology breakthroughs for long-endurance hydrogen-powered drones and successfully conducted pilot applications in mountain power grid inspection scenarios at the Meizhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid. Wuhu Shipyard (Wuhu Shipyard Co., Ltd. : The Tongzhouwan site at Wuhu Shipyard's Nantong base completed the semi-submersible float-off launching of the vessel "18515." The vessel is an 18,500-deadweight-tonnage methanol dual-fuel high-end chemical tanker and is the first vessel in the series. It has a total length of 149.8 meters, a design speed of 14 knots, and can use methanol as clean fuel. This launching cleared a key step in standardized construction and will help promote local shipbuilding industry development. Zhangjiagang Port Group Co., Ltd. : The first round of bidding for Zhangjiagang Port's 10 hydrogen fuel cell tractor project had only two valid suppliers, failing to meet the bid opening requirements. The procurement method was changed to negotiated procurement. This procurement involves 10 units of 45 kN hydrogen fuel cell tractors, including 1 unit with intelligent assisted driving, for intra-port transfer operations and required to be compatible with existing flatbed trailers. Taiyuan Public Transport Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. : The company selected a local gas supply service provider through merit-based evaluation to ensure daily hydrogen supply for 6 hydrogen-powered buses, with unit price settlement based on actual gas consumption. The supplied hydrogen must comply with the GB/T3634.2-2011 high-purity hydrogen standard. The service provider is required to deploy fixed hydrogen refueling stations in Taiyuan, prioritize emergency hydrogen refueling for public buses, implement one-card-per-vehicle hydrogen refueling management, with a project service period of two years. Lanzhou Lanshi Petroleum Equipment Engineering Co., Ltd.: The second-generation 45 MPa ionic liquid hydrogen compressor and 22 MPa hydraulic-driven piston hydrogen compressor, customized for a domestic energy station, successfully completed all testing procedures including boost commissioning and electrical control system joint debugging. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. The team led by Professor Li Zhipeng from Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics coupling model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative effects of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on battery output performance. 2. The National Hydrogen Energy Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute completed and commercially opened a 0–400 kW hydrogen-involved loaded tri-axial vibration testing platform, addressing the shortcomings in large power hydrogen-involved multi-physics coupling testing in China. 3. The high specific power cathode-closed air-cooled fuel cell stack technology developed by the team of Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng from the National Key Laboratory of Energy Catalytic Conversion at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively resolves the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, addressing technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, membrane drying and flooding, and high-power thermal management. 4. Two group standards on hydrogen production by water electrolysis were officially released and implemented: Technical Specifications for Safety of Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis and Accounting Methods for Economic Operation Indicators of Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis. 5. Petronor and H2SITE collaborated to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, improving high-purity hydrogen and low-carbon efficiency in refining. 6. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron pump catalyst with an asymmetric photo-responsive structure, maintaining the asymmetry of electron distribution.

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.

The Aluminum Packaging Recycling Organisation (Alupro) has released a new industry manifesto calling for stronger government support to improve aluminium packaging recycling and increase recycled material availability in the UK. The report said rising costs and stricter regulations are pressuring industry competitiveness. Alupro proposed measures including improvements to the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system, prioritising “can-to-can” recycling under the Deposit Return Scheme (DRS), and encouraging higher recycled aluminium usage in packaging. Markets believe the UK and Europe are continuing to strengthen policy support for recycled aluminium and low-carbon packaging to improve domestic supply-chain resilience.