Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

News Release: April 30, 2026 According to SMM statistics, China’s high-carbon ferrochrome output in April 2026 fell by 1.28% month-on-month but rose by 24.63% year-on-year, with notable regional divergence. The majority of the monthly output reduction came from Inner Mongolia in northern China. Affected by substation maintenance, ferrochrome producers in Fengzhen faced production restrictions, with output dipping slightly by 1.82%.

The overseas secondary aluminum market continues to exhibit structural divergence. Elevated scrap prices provide strong cost support, but cautious downstream procurement and weak transaction follow-through are dampening demand-side momentum. As a result, prices remain firm while trading activity stays subdued.【SMM Analysis】

According to SMM data, as of April 24, social inventory of aluminum ingots in China's major consumption regions stood at 1.465 million mt, up 42,000 mt WoW, maintaining an inventory buildup trend for multiple consecutive weeks, with the pace of buildup widening again WoW. Weekly warehouse withdrawals rebounded slightly by 14,200 mt WoW to 115,200 mt, but the improvement in withdrawals fell short of the recent increase in arrivals, indicating clearly insufficient momentum for inventory drawdown..

SMM April 24 News: Lead prices shifted from fluctuating at highs to pulling back sharply this week, with notable futures fluctuations. Scrap battery purchase prices showed regional divergence, with some smelters in east China and central China lowering their quotes at the beginning of the week, while other regions remained largely stable. As lead prices continued to weaken and smelter price adjustments took effect, recyclers rushed to make shipments in a panic. Smelter scrap battery arrivals rebounded significantly WoW this week. At the current stage, smelters have accelerated their restocking pace, with raw material demand gradually materializing. Combined with the continued weak trend in lead prices, expectations for smelters to lower scrap battery purchase prices next week have strengthened.

In March, China's manganese ore market trended upward MoM, driven by the resonance of multiple cost factors outside China. South African ore led the gains, with South African semi-carbonate at Tianjin port up 10.42% MoM and South African high-iron ore up 8.77% MoM, making them the core varieties leading the gains. Other manganese ore varieties also posted varying degrees of increases. The core drivers of this rally came from geopolitical factors and rising costs outside China, compounded by mild port inventory pressure and marginal improvement in demand. The market overall held up well.

Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.