China Northern Rare Earth disclosed its 2025 annual report on April 18, which stated: 2025 was a pivotal year for the reshaping of the global rare earth industry landscape, a pivotal year for the strategic elevation of China's rare earth industry, and a pivotal year for the company to achieve historic breakthroughs in its business development. Over the past year, the company implemented national industrial policies and enhanced its capacity to serve national strategies. Production of major products hit record highs , with operating revenue reaching 42.563 billion yuan, up 29.11% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reaching 2.251 billion yuan, up 124.17% YoY. The company maintained its industry-leading position in revenue, profit, output value, and market capitalization, successfully concluding the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. It effectively safeguarded the security and stability of China's rare earth industry chain and supply chain, and elevated China's rare earth industry to a new level of high-quality development. The explanation of operating revenue changes disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's announcement stated: In 2025, amid an overall rise in rare earth market prices, the company seized market opportunities and coordinated the advancement of the "Five Unifications" scientific production model. Production and sales of major products, including smelting and separation products, rare earth metals, rare earth new materials, and rare earth permanent magnet motors, all achieved YoY growth. The main business disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's 2025 annual report stated: Adhering to the development philosophy of "optimizing and expanding rare earth raw materials, refining and strengthening rare earth new materials, and specializing and differentiating end-use application products," the company is capable of producing 11 major categories, over 100 varieties, and more than 1,000 specifications of rare earth products. The company's products are mainly divided into rare earth raw material products, rare earth new material products, and rare earth end-use application products. Among them, the company's rare earth raw material products include rare earth salts, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals, which serve as the primary raw materials for downstream rare earth new material and new material product processing enterprises. Rare earth new material products include rare earth magnetic materials, polishing materials, hydrogen storage materials, catalytic materials, and rare earth alloys. The company's rare earth end-use application products mainly include rare earth permanent magnet high-efficiency energy-saving motors, solid-state hydrogen storage cylinders, and hydrogen-powered two-wheelers. Regarding the business plan for 2026, China Northern Rare Earth stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and a critical year for the company to advance high-quality development and accelerate its transformation into a world-class leading rare earth enterprise. The company will adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, take forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation as the main theme, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its successive plenary sessions, implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions on Inner Mongolia and the rare earth industry, as well as the decisions and deployments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Baotou Municipality, and other higher-level authorities. The company will maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy, shoulder its responsibilities and mission, steadily improve operational quality and efficiency, build a comprehensive all-element and all-category industrial system, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, accelerate the pace of deepening reform, enhance the level of modern governance, continuously strengthen core functions and enhance core competitiveness, accelerate the building of a world-class leading rare earth enterprise, achieve a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, and make new and greater contributions to the construction of the "two rare earth bases." Key production and operating targets for 2026 (these targets are planning targets only; whether they can ultimately be achieved is subject to uncertainty and do not constitute substantive commitments by the Company to investors; investors and relevant parties should maintain sufficient risk awareness and understand the differences between plans, forecasts, and commitments): achieve operating revenue of over 44 billion yuan and total profit of over 3.5 billion yuan. On the premise of meeting operating targets, ensure that employee income moves in tandem with the enterprise's economic performance and labor productivity. Centering on the work targets, the following key initiatives will be carried out: 1. Stabilize production, promote sales, and improve quality and efficiency, demonstrating a new outlook of a strong start. Based on the national rare earth total volume control indicators, organize and arrange production schedules scientifically. Make every effort to ensure stable and high output from Phase I of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Enhance the capability of full-element rare earth extraction and separation. Optimize rare earth metal production processes to improve product quality and capacity scale. Release newly added magnetic material alloy capacity, with per-mt product costs reaching industry-leading levels. The polishing segment will leverage resource and capacity advantages, implement transformation toward high-end and precision products, and enhance product competitiveness. Rare earth additives will focus on high value-added product development to ensure stable product supply. Monitor mainstream product price trends and maintain market stability. Achieve production-sales balance for rare earth lanthanum-cerium products while actively digesting inventories. Strengthen procurement and sales channel development for rare earth Pr-Nd products to enhance market control. The functional materials segment will seize policy and market opportunities to secure orders. Rare earth permanent magnet motors will target frontier fields to achieve new breakthroughs in sales. Refine cost management and implement comprehensive measures to deepen cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement. Optimize financing methods to provide low-cost funding support for the Company's development. 2. Optimize layout and add momentum, shaping new advantages in industrial development. Efficiently advance the construction of key projects and accelerate the construction of Phase II of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Promote the Northern Jinlong separation production line to achieve trial production within the year. Promote stable and smooth production at the Jinmeng rare earth secondary resource project. Build a full-category industrial system and accelerate the implementation of joint venture and cooperation projects. Promote stable production and full production at the Northern Magnetic Material digital green technology empowerment project, and expand segmented application fields of rare earth permanent magnet materials. Strengthen the promotion and application of solid-state hydrogen storage materials and expand new applications in the rare earth catalysis field. Enhance the level of digital and intelligent management, deepen the construction of information management and control systems, continue to advance the in-depth application of business systems such as human resources, discipline inspection, and engineering projects, and further consolidate the digital form of business operations. Build a procurement-sales collaborative management platform to form a closed-loop business process covering "procurement, production, inventory, sales, and finance," achieving business-finance integration. Advance the construction of green smelting smart factories, progressively cultivate major production units to build smart factories, and continuously improve the CNC rate of key processes and the digitalization rate of production equipment. 3. Coordinating internal and external efforts to tackle key challenges, empowering innovation to seek new breakthroughs. Increase high-quality scientific and technological supply and strengthen R&D investment intensity. Focus on project deployment and research breakthroughs in areas such as cost reduction in smelting and separation, quality improvement in metal electrolysis, development of new rare earth materials, and expansion of new rare earth applications, developing new products, new processes, and new equipment. Conduct high-value patent cultivation and standards development and revision in key areas across the entire industry chain. Improve the "1+2+N+4" rare earth industry technology innovation platform system, launch high-level rare earth innovation platform projects, and comprehensively optimize and integrate technology innovation resources. Further leverage the role of the industrial transformation center, streamline the pathway for commercializing research outcomes, and enhance the quality and efficiency of technology transfer. Deepen the integration of industry, academia, and research, and promote the establishment of joint laboratories with renowned universities in China. Carry out "Three Firsts" application work in areas such as NdFeB alloy production equipment, rare earth permanent magnet motors, rare earth polishing fluids, and rare earth functional additives, and achieve substantive results. Further leverage the functions of the company's collaborative innovation centers across various industrial sectors, strengthen resource coordination and centralized management, and implement organized research. Focus on tackling key common technologies, promote close interaction and coordinated development among subsidiaries, and drive the output and transfer incubation of major scientific and technological achievements. Introduce the technology readiness level evaluation system into the entire R&D management process to establish quantitative assessment channels. Continue to strengthen the recruitment and cultivation of scientific and technological talent, providing full support in terms of compensation, research funding, and living benefits. 4. Deepening and substantiating reforms to stimulate new vitality in enterprise development. Enhance the company's management and control effectiveness, improve the board of directors' construction and authorization system, explore the formulation of management systems for the performance of duties by full-time and part-time chairpersons, and elevate the board's standardized performance and scientific decision-making capabilities. Optimize the company's management and control matters, processes, and authorities to improve decision-making efficiency. Promote the optimization and integration of subsidiaries. Implement the requirements of the "doubling" initiative for specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and cultivate additional such enterprises. Deepen the reform of the three systems, improve the cadre assessment and evaluation system, and strengthen the rigid implementation of assessment results. Optimize the selection and appointment mechanism, intensify competitive recruitment and market-oriented hiring, implement "3+6" contract-based management, and firmly establish a talent selection orientation that prioritizes actual performance and practical contributions. Closely align with the company's development and actual business needs, scientifically evaluate organizational structures, reasonably reduce management layers, and enhance management effectiveness. Leverage new projects and production lines to establish shared employment mechanisms, promoting dynamic position integration and workforce optimization. Deepen the reform of the compensation distribution system, build a "same-level, broad-grade" compensation system based on position value and performance contributions, strengthen the linkage between subsidiary performance and the company's overall profitability, and drive a close connection between employee income and enterprise profitability as well as individual contributions. 5. Striving for Excellence in Management to Elevate Modern Governance to New Heights. Strengthened strategic security management, enhanced information resource integration, and actively participated in the formulation of national industrial policies. Strengthened financial management by rigorously implementing comprehensive budget management, further reinforcing capital control, and establishing a capital risk prevention and control system. Enhanced financial informatization by building a standardized, efficient, and well-adapted financial shared services system. Strengthened risk and compliance management by improving the compliance management system to ensure that business development and compliance management advanced in tandem. Established a legal affairs shared system to reduce legal service costs for subsidiaries and strengthen the company's overall legal risk prevention and control capabilities. Improved the comprehensive risk management system and optimized risk management across the entire process of strategy, operations, and management. Strengthened safety and environmental protection management, guided by the "10000" safety vision, to enhance intrinsic safety levels. Effectively carried out safety management of relevant parties. Rigorously implemented environmental protection accountability, improved integrated traceability management of solid waste across production, sales, transportation, and utilization, and enhanced emergency response capabilities. Strengthened talent management by reinforcing training and empowerment, implementing targeted training by level and category, and improving the competency of key personnel. Deepened specialized cultivation of high-level talent and strengthened the deep integration of talent development with the company's strategic growth. Innovated the training model for industrial workers, built a platform for skills inheritance and innovation, simultaneously consolidated talent reserves, optimized talent structure, and enhanced talent effectiveness. Strengthened market capitalization management by establishing a scientific market capitalization management philosophy, improving the ESG management system, and comprehensively leveraging measures such as information disclosure, investor relations management, cash dividends, mergers and acquisitions, and ESG on the basis of enhancing the company's value creation capabilities, to improve market capitalization management performance and maintain the company's position as the largest by market capitalization in the rare earth industry. When discussing potential risks, China Northern Rare Earth mentioned product price risk: Affected by internal and external factors such as macro economic conditions, cyclical industry fluctuations, changes in rare earth market supply and demand, intensified market competition, and geopolitical disruptions, prices of major rare earth products may fluctuate and decline, posing product price risk. Countermeasures: The company will closely monitor market conditions, strengthen market forecasting and analysis, innovate marketing models, adjust marketing strategies, improve product quality, vigorously expand markets, and increase product market share. While maintaining and expanding the marketing base for Pr-Nd products, the company will intensify marketing efforts for La-Ce products, optimize service quality, and improve client satisfaction. Leveraging the role of a major rare earth group, the company will stabilize confidence, stabilize expectations, and stabilize market operations, adopting comprehensive measures to overcome unfavourable factors and striving to mitigate the impact of product price risk on the company's operating performance. Looking back at the SMM Pr-Nd oxide price trend in 2025: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on December 31, 2025 was 606,500 yuan/mt, compared with the average price of 398,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 52.39% in 2025. In comparison, the annual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in 2025 was 491,576.13 yuan/mt versus 391,871.9 yuan/mt in 2024, indicating a YoY increase of 25.45% in the daily average price in 2025. Driven by expectations of supply reduction due to partial shutdowns at separation plants, upstream suppliers raised their quotes rapidly, low-priced spot cargo in the market tightened quickly, pushing rare earth prices up for three consecutive days. According to SMM pricing, on April 20, the price of Pr-Nd oxide was 815,000-818,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 816,500 yuan/mt, up 1.74% from the previous trading day. As the price of Pr-Nd oxide rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, while downstream magnetic material enterprises had limited acceptance of high-priced metals, and purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the short term, supported by strong confidence among upstream suppliers to hold prices firm, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to hover at highs. For more information on rare earth fundamentals, technical aspects, and policy developments, please attend the ~ SMM Rare Earth Forum Contact: Wang Haiqiao Contact: 19818727891

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct and material external shock to Southeast Asia’s energy supply structure. Solar (PV) is emerging as the main alternative for reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. However, the structural tension between accelerating PV penetration and entrenched electricity market models will be the decisive factor governing the region’s energy transition pace.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

[The National Development and Reform Commission issued the list of the second batch of "two heavy" construction projects for 2026] On April 19, it was reported that recently,The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, organized and issued the list of the second batch of "two heavy" construction projects in 2026, with a total of 216.8 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury funds allocated to support 336 major projects. The relevant projects involve key areas such as artificial intelligence, urban underground pipeline construction and renovation, transportation infrastructure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, high-standard paddy fields, upgrading and upgrading of higher education, and the "Three North" project. In addition to the 389.7 bill

The Nikolai Nickel Project has been added to the U.S. FAST-41 program, which is designed to accelerate permitting and improve interagency coordination. At the same time, continued policy support for domestic critical minerals, including permitting reform, funding support, and supply chain localization, is strengthening the strategic position of U.S. nickel projects.

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): This year, a series of actions to expand effective investment will be carried out, focusing on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure

SMM April 17 News: Metals Market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.97%, SHFE lead fell 0.98%. SHFE zinc rose 0.08%. SHFE tin rose 0.05%. SHFE nickel rose 0.11%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.42%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.72%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.45%, stainless steel rose 1.39%, rebar rose 0.42%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.28%, coke rose 0.74%. Overnight, overseas metals generally rose. LME copper fell 0.26%. LME aluminum rose 0.55%, LME lead fell 0.99%. LME zinc rose 0.6%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.41%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.26%, COMEX silver fell 1.47%. Overnight SHFE gold rose 0.17%, SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 7:02 AM on April 17, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Launching 2026 Central Fiscal Support for Urban Renewal Action] The General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on launching the 2026 central fiscal support for urban renewal action. The notice stated that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will select, through competitive evaluation, certain cities with strong foundational conditions, high enthusiasm, and distinctive features, to integrate various resources at the city level, explore the establishment of guarantee mechanisms for funding, land use, finance, and other key factors, and form a coordinated effort. The central government will provide fixed-amount subsidies to selected cities. Selected cities will formulate urban renewal work plans, coordinate the use of central and local funds, significantly improve urban infrastructure levels, enhance the living environment in old districts, refine laws and regulations, planning standards, investment and financing mechanisms, and related supporting policies, and explore replicable and scalable mechanisms and models for urban renewal. In 2026, the scope of central fiscal support for urban renewal covers prefecture-level and above cities, with no more than 15 cities to be selected. [State Administration for Market Regulation: Dynamically Adjusting CCC Certification Catalog to Avoid Low-Price, Low-Quality Involution-Style Competition] The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) deployed a nationwide special campaign to safeguard the bottom line of CCC certification, strengthening CCC certification supervision across the entire chain and in all dimensions to create a safe and reassuring consumer environment. Compulsory product certification, commonly known as CCC certification, is a conformity assessment system with market access nature established by the Chinese government in accordance with WTO rules and international practices. Products listed in the CCC certification catalog must obtain certification before they can be shipped, imported, or sold. This special campaign emphasized strictness. Comprehensive supervisory inspections will be conducted on designated certification bodies, focusing on key areas such as power banks, e-bikes, and gas-burning appliances, with effectiveness spot checks. The campaign will further advance the pilot reform of CCC certification marks, precisely crack down on fraudulent CCC certification marks, and strengthen product quality responsibility traceability. A SAMR official stated that, to further strengthen source governance of product quality and safety, the CCC certification catalog will be optimized with dynamic management, and research will be conducted to bring products involving industrial safety, public safety, and personal health safety under CCC certification management. In response to issues arising after some products in the CCC certification catalog adopted self-declaration evaluation, such as some enterprises failing to fulfill quality responsibilities and false commitments leading to declining product quality, SAMR has switched 16 product categories, including small-power motors and automotive safety glass, to third-party certification management. Certification and detection institutions are required to conduct cost accounting and charge reasonable fees based on publicly disclosed standards after accounting, to avoid low-price, low-quality involution-style competition. (CCTV News) [National Energy Administration Deploys Nationwide Special Campaign to Improve Power Supply Quality] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued a notice, organizing local government departments, power grid enterprises, user enterprises, industry associations, and other parties to work in coordination. Focusing on new requirements for power supply quality arising from the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, and the forward-looking development of future industries, the campaign centers on addressing key issues such as voltage sags. Targeting full coverage of terminal monitoring for new quality productive forces-related enterprises sensitive to power quality, and significantly reducing the impact of voltage sags on key power supply lines on the production and operations of new quality productive forces-related enterprises, a series of specific measures were proposed. The special campaign for power supply quality improvement will be implemented over three years, with all tasks to be fully completed by the end of 2028, driving stronger power supply assurance capabilities for high-quality development of new quality productive forces, broader coverage, more effective support, and more efficient service response, striving to address the "lingering concerns" of new quality productive forces development and providing safer and more efficient energy and power support for high-quality economic and social development. (National Energy Administration) [Chinese Research Team Pioneers Green Extraction Technology for Critical Metals] A research team composed of Researcher Gao Jun and Professor Li Chaoxu from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key Laboratory of Solar Energy Photoelectric Conversion and Utilization, together with Researcher Jiang Lei from the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a universal heavy metal ion membrane separation method inspired by biological calcium ion channels. This method can efficiently, greenly, and selectively extract uranium, copper, gold, and other heavy metal resources critical to new energy, and is expected to solve the long-standing challenges of high pollution, low efficiency, and high energy consumption in traditional heavy metal resource extraction technologies. (CCTV News) [Nanjing: Expanding Housing Provident Fund Cross-Regional Loan Coverage to All of Anhui Province] The Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund usage policies. It specified that the scope of housing provident fund cross-regional loans will be expanded to cover all of Anhui province. Building on the existing 17 cities in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, the cross-regional loan coverage will be extended to all of Anhui province. Housing provident fund contributors in all 29 cities across Jiangsu and Anhui provinces can apply for housing provident fund loans from the Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center when purchasing property in Nanjing. Nanjing housing provident fund contributors purchasing owner-occupied housing in any city in Anhui province can process housing provident fund purchase withdrawals and loan repayment withdrawals in accordance with Nanjing's relevant policies, without restrictions based on the contributor's workplace or household registration location. [Zhengzhou: Adjusting the Upper Age Limit for Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loan Borrowers] The Zhengzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on adjusting the upper age limit for housing provident fund personal housing loan borrowers. After deliberation, it was decided to adjust the upper age limit. For employees with delayed retirement applying for housing provident fund personal housing loans, subject to a maximum loan term of no more than 30 years, the loan maturity age for males is extended from the original 65 to 68, and for females from the original 60 to 63. This notice takes effect from the date of issuance. Matters not covered herein shall be governed by existing policies, and where the state has other provisions, those provisions shall prevail. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.2. US Fed Governor Miran stated that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his interest rate cut expectations for this year. Miran said: "If I were writing my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 cuts, maybe 4. I haven't decided yet." In March, Miran projected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he indicated that the pace of cuts could slow down as price trends became "less favorable." Former US Treasury Secretary Paulson called on the US government to develop a contingency plan to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasuries. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson said: "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted and short-term, prepared in advance, and ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson noted that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to malfunction, it would be fundamentally different from the financial crisis he dealt with during his tenure two decades ago. "It was already bad then, but the government still had fiscal space to address the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, hitting a tipping point where the government tries to issue Treasuries but the US Fed is the only buyer, and Treasury prices fall while interest rates rise, that would be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "doom loop": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, driving up government interest expenses and further widening the fiscal deficit. In an extreme scenario, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes the US Fed would have to step in as an emergency buyer. Paulson said, "Once it happens, the shock will be very severe, so we must be prepared for this possibility." According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June was 1.4%, with a 98% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Additionally, on the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, although employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remained low, the oil price shock from the US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists noted that the labour market had already been in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributing it to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses. (Jin10 Data) Macro Front: Today, data including the eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and the eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance will be released. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 3.46%. The market was concerned about whether renewed US-Iran peace negotiations could ease supply disruptions. The US launched an operation codenamed "Economic Fury" against Iran, imposing maximum economic pressure. The Iranian armed forces stated that Iran's military was fully prepared for defense. (Jin10 Data) US President Trump said he expected a deal with Iran to be announced soon, claiming the deal would bring the US "free oil" and "free passage through the Strait of Hormuz." When asked about the economy and oil prices, Trump said current oil prices were lower than previously expected. He said: "If you look at oil prices and what we're paying, it's about half of what people originally expected, provided you do what I had to do." He added: "I think the negotiations are going very well right now. If a deal is reached, it will be announced soon, and it will give us free oil and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything will be fine. I think oil prices will be even lower than before." (Jin10 Data) CITIC Securities pointed out that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively created three fault lines: oil price shocks on the energy front, physical disruptions on the supply front, and leverage games on the geopolitical front. The market's pricing of oil price shocks largely reflects cost-side pressure transmitting downstream, but this framework follows the old logic of a closed economy. Under global exposure, as ex-China supply capability is impaired by cost-side shocks, Chinese enterprises may see medium and long-term opportunities for margin expansion. As the world shifts from "efficiency first" to "security first," recurring conflicts will inevitably pose ongoing challenges to supply chains. Following three medium and long-term themes—accelerated electrification, order diversion and substitution, and supply chain diplomacy—actively going long on the resilience of China's supply chain will be an important investment theme for global investors to hedge against fluctuations and navigate through cycles.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the HPM nickel ore formula in Quarter 2 of 2026, significantly raising the adjustment factor and including cobalt, iron, and chromium in pricing for the first time. This shift will increase base prices across all grades, particularly for low-grade ores used in hydrometallurgy, placing heavy cost pressure on the stainless steel and new energy industries. Supply remains tight due to delayed mining quota approvals and rising refining costs. Following the policy signal, international nickel futures have surged through key resistance levels. Analysts suggest that high raw material costs may become the new norm, with potential for further price hikes if refined nickel output drops or policy impacts exceed market expectations.