In the spot market, SMM #1 lead prices showed a weakening trend on the end-user side this week (July 13-17, 2026), with the weekly average price falling 30 yuan/mt WoW and the overall price center shifting lower. As the week approached month-end, on the one hand, downstream lead-acid battery enterprises cut production due to poor orders, further weakening month-end procurement demand; on the other hand, supply in the primary lead and secondary lead markets increased somewhat, and spot market discounts continued to widen. Especially in the primary lead segment, suppliers actively widened discounts to sell and clear inventory at month-end. In north China, spot discounts widened further, from parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory at the start of the week to a discount of 50 yuan/mt ex-factory; traders’ quotations widened from discounts of 140-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2608 contract to discounts of 220-160 yuan/mt ex-factory. For secondary lead, at the start of the week smelters still held back from selling at low prices, with secondary refined lead quoted around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, later gradually shifting to discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt ex-factory.

SMM, July 24: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were at discounts of 100~50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and deliveries at parity within industrial parks were transacted. Some suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, with quotations at premiums of 75~125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, or even halted shipments. Raw material prices declined in tandem, but smelters remained deep in losses. As of July 24, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss value stood at -498 yuan/mt for large-scale secondary lead enterprises and -679 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized ones. Looking ahead to next week, expectations for secondary lead production cuts persist, with most cargo owners continuing to hold back from selling and waiting on the sidelines. The remaining supplies are expected to transact at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to parity. Lead price rebound space is limited, and the loss situation for smelters will be hard to reverse in the short term.

SMM, July 24 – Expectations for secondary refined lead are diverging between upstream and downstream, and the market direction is unclear. Smelters are becoming cautious in purchasing scrap batteries, leaving limited room for purchase price adjustments. The supply of scrap batteries in the market is tight, and suppliers are unwilling to sell at low prices while waiting for market clarity. Downstream smelters are only restocking to meet rigid demand and have no plans to purchase large quantities of materials for now. Both the supply and demand sides are adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the short term, scrap battery prices are consolidating without clear drivers.

SMM July 24 news: Market views were clearly divided today, with downstream enterprises suggesting that online prices be lowered by 150-200 yuan/mt; upstream suppliers hoped for stable prices, with a few firm offers quoted at 15,700 yuan/mt, and spot order availability was limited in the market. Downstream enterprises held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, choosing to purchase at lower levels when opportunities arose; actual transaction prices were at discounts of 50-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, while some park-based deliveries in east China were concluded at parity on a delivered basis. SMM secondary refined lead average price today was 15,550 yuan/mt, a discount of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price. Suppliers’ shipment sentiment stood at 0.8, while today's secondary refined lead purchase sentiment was 1.83 (historical data can be accessed via the database).

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,892/mt, swung wildly during Asian trading hours, touched a high of $1,910/mt entering European hours, before giving back all gains late in the session due to increased bearish positions, falling to a low of $1,886/mt, and ultimately settled at $1,887/mt, down 0.32%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened high at 15,910 yuan/mt, then drifted lower on long liquidation, hitting a low of 15,755 yuan/mt late in the session before settling at 15,765 yuan/mt, down 0.88%. On the macro front: The US imposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies to replace the expiring global import tariffs. The US Treasury: Despite narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, yen weakness persisted, and excessive yen volatility was unwelcome. The ECB left rates unchanged as expected but kept the door open for a September rate hike. The People's Bank of China: On July 24, it will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year tenor. MOFCOM: China and the US are soliciting opinions on tariff reduction arrangements and will push for implementation as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China consistently opposes the politicization and weaponization of technology, economic, and trade issues. Shanghai: Promote continuous deepening of reforms on the STAR Market and expand the application scope of the fifth set of listing standards on the STAR Market. Changxin Technology: to list on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead stopped falling and rebounded, boosting suppliers' willingness to sell. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were limited, while primary lead smelters had ample EXW cargoes and offered mostly at discounts. Quotations from mainstream production areas were at discounts of 50-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. In the secondary lead sector, most smelters were in reduced or suspended production, leaving limited circulating supply. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW, forming an inverted price structure versus primary lead. Downstream enterprises, making just-in-time procurement, favored primary lead. Warrant cargoes traded moderately, while EXW cargoes saw relatively improved transactions. Inventory: On July 23, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 449,325 mt. As of July 23, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 62,400 mt, down 9,400 mt from July 16 and down 1,400 mt from July 20. Lead price forecast for today: As late July arrives, the July long-term contract for lead ingot is about to expire. Medium- to large-sized downstream enterprises are waiting for the new monthly long-term contract, reducing their procurement enthusiasm for lead ingot. Meanwhile, some downstream enterprises plan to suspend operations for a break due to high temperatures, further dampening lead ingot procurement demand. Next week, primary lead enterprises in central China are about to enter maintenance, while new secondary lead capacity in east China will ramp up, leaving mixed supply-side factors. If lead consumption remains sluggish, destocking of lead ingot social inventory will be difficult to sustain; subsequently, the possibility of renewed inventory buildup cannot be ruled out, which could weigh on the lead price trend.

SMM, July 23 – Today, the market suggested that the online price for secondary refined lead was raised by 75-100 yuan/mt. Some upstream suppliers quoted 15,800 yuan/mt, remaining firm. Spot orders followed market trends, with spot cargoes traded at an ex-factory discount of 30-50 yuan/mt. Downstream consumption remained persistently weak, with resistance to high-priced cargoes, low purchase willingness, and no restocking plans for now. The market mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with some enterprises planning to postpone purchases. Market sentiment diverged between buying and selling, with price increases lacking demand support, and spot deals remaining sluggish. Today, the SMM average price of secondary refined lead was reported at 15,700 yuan/mt, a premium of 25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price. Supplier shipment sentiment was 0.81, and today's secondary refined lead purchase sentiment was 1.41 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,872.5/mt, drifting lower to $1,863/mt during Asian trading hours. Entering the European session, bears reduced positions, and LME lead rose to an intraday high of $1,898.5/mt before finally settling at $1,893/mt, up 1.34%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,790 yuan/mt, then consolidated around the 15,815 yuan/mt level, with a session high of 15,850 yuan/mt and a low of 15,770 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 15,820 yuan/mt, up 0.6%. On the macro front: An Iranian official said Trump's claims that Tehran requested negotiations were "completely baseless." US Secretary of State Rubio expressed willingness to reach a diplomatic solution with Iran but noted Iran lacks sincerity. Iran's military stated that if the US acts on its threats, Iran will cut off all oil flows in the Gulf region and strike infrastructure there. Israeli media reported that the US has notified Israel of plans to escalate strikes against Iran in the coming days. Trump said he expects a US federal government "shutdown" in September. China's Ministry of Finance reported that securities transaction stamp duty revenue jumped 97.3% YoY in H1. Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Center stated it has invested a cumulative total of nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds in the stock market so far. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a weak note with its center moving lower. Supplier quotes diverged more widely, with some holding prices firm while others widened discounts to sell. For primary lead smelters, EXW cargo quotes saw wider discounts, with mainstream production area quotes at discounts of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and some as low as 100-80 yuan/mt. In secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices with limited quotes. Some secondary refined lead was quoted near parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a few regions had discounted cargoes. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and some planned output cuts due to weak orders and high temperatures, leading to lackluster spot market transactions. Inventory: On July 22, LME lead inventory fell 425 mt to 449,325 mt. As of July 20, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions decreased by 8,000 mt WoW from July 16. Lead price outlook today: Recently, some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, while new and expanded capacity at secondary lead smelters is coming online. Weak lead consumption combined with supply pressure widened spot discounts. Meanwhile, high overseas inventory weighed on the upside of lead prices, keeping prices under pressure in the short term. The market has entered a game-theory phase, with lead prices mainly consolidating on a weak note. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM July 22 News: Today, the market suggested that the secondary refined lead online price be lowered by 100-125 yuan/mt. Some upstream merchants quoted 15,700 yuan/mt, held prices firm and held back from selling, unwilling to sell at low prices; spot orders were offered at a discount of 30-50 yuan/mt ex-factory. Downstream players were bearish on the market outlook, slowed their procurement pace, were in no hurry to purchase, and mostly chose to wait and see for lower prices. Market sentiment was weak, divergences between buying and selling were obvious, spot transactions were hard to increase in volume, and overall trading was thin. The SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,600 yuan/mt, at a premium of 25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment was 0.59, and the secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment today was 2.06 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,880/mt, drifting higher during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it tested a high of $1,890/mt before weakening as bears added positions, giving back all gains to dip to $1,867/mt, and finally closing at $1,868/mt, down 0.48%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened lower with a gap at 15,820 yuan/mt, dipped slightly to a high of 15,880 yuan/mt before drifting lower, with bears adding positions to push SHFE lead down to 15,700 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 15,715 yuan/mt, down 1.07%. On the macro front: Trump: Iran wants to meet but we are not interested; will strike the Harzand region in Iran (where nuclear facilities are reportedly located) very hard; if the Houthis blockade the Red Sea, the US will "take action". Iran's military struck a US airbase in Bahrain, saying that if the US attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, all US and allied interests in the region will become targets. The 10% temporary tariff is about to expire, US Trade Representative previews new tariffs will soon fill in; according to the UK Financial Times: Trump is about to impose new tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week. China's MIIT lithium battery and similar products standard working group: will hold discussions on 10 industry standards for solid-state lithium batteries. The A-share STAR 50 Index surged over 10%, hitting a new high for the year in its biggest single-day gain. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to move sideways, with suppliers selling as needed, though there were few quotations in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region. Additionally, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were ample and generally quoted at discounts, with mainstream production areas offering at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters showed modest enthusiasm for shipments, with limited circulating supply in the market; some secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead. Downstream enterprises remained cautiously on the sidelines, digesting inventories during production, with some waiting for new monthly long-term contract execution and only a small amount of just-in-time procurement, leading to sluggish market transactions. Inventory: On July 21, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,025 mt to 449,750 mt; as of July 20, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions fell by 8,000 mt MoM from July 16. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, the lead-acid battery market remained in its consumption off-season, with downstream enterprises maintaining purchases as needed; as some enterprises have holiday expectations, lead ingot purchasing strength is expected to weaken further. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintained low operating rates with limited supply circulating in the market, while primary lead supply was relatively ample; spot market transactions are expected to remain skewed towards discounts. In addition, the high uncertainty of the Middle East conflict has driven up energy and shipping costs, which has become one of the factors affecting lead prices.

In summary, the import dividends marginally faded in June, while exports experienced a periodical recovery. The narrowing of the import window in July will cause monthly imports to decline significantly, and the annual trade pattern will enter a new phase of reduced imports and export recovery.