[SMM Magnesium Market Analysis: Magnesium Market Walked a Symmetric Consolidation Pattern in H1 2026, Weakening After the Fade of the Boom – Where Is the Bottom of Magnesium Prices?] Looking back at the Chinese magnesium market in H1 2026, affected by concentrated production halts at magnesium smelters earlier, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand quietly reversed. Tight spot supply and low inventory provided a good foundation for phased rises in the fundamentals of the magnesium ingot market. Coupled with news-driven disturbances such as surging demand for magnesium alloys, speculative demand suddenly emerged, and market procurement enthusiasm soared. In Q1, magnesium prices showed a stair-step increase. Overly high expectations boosted smelters' production enthusiasm, and magnesium smelter output rose continuously. By June 2026, China's primary magnesium production had reached 110,000 mt. The continuous increase in output added to the sales pressure on magnesium smelters. With both inventory and output rising, magnesium prices showed a stair-step decline in Q2. Overall, magnesium prices presented an inverted V-shaped trend in H1.

[SMM Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate Weekly Review: Cost Increases Drive Price Recovery; Manganese Sulphate Market Expected to Hold Up Well] This week, China’s manganese sulphate market shifted away from the previous weakness, stopped falling and edged up, with futures officially ending the prolonged weak consolidation. This round of price increases was mainly driven by strong cost-side support: sulphuric acid prices surged again recently, coupled with spot manganese ore prices staying high, significantly raising overall production costs for manganese salt enterprises...

[SMM EMM Weekly Review: Cost and Production Cuts Double Bottom Support, Off-Season Market Stabilizes in Narrow Range] This week, China's EMM market rebounded slightly and then entered a sideways movement channel. Spot quotations overall stabilized and consolidated. The futures market showed a stalemate pattern where both gains and losses were difficult, with the downside room for prices fully locked. Costs and the supply side formed a double bottom support, becoming the core driving force stabilizing the market......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Entire Magnesium Industry Chain Weakens; Supply-Demand Weakness Keeps Market Under Pressure] This week, China's magnesium industry chain was in the doldrums across the board. Dolomite prices in Wutai, Shanxi, remained flat. Regional supply tightened, but national supply was ample, and only just-in-time procurement was insufficient to drive prices higher. Fugu and Shenmu 9990 magnesium ingot mainstream prices were 15,750-15,850 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan on the week. High in-factory inventory prompted producers to sell at lower margins, while downstream buyers stayed on the sidelines, making only small restocking purchases, resulting in slow destocking. The average FOB price of magnesium ingot at Tianjin port was $2,275/mt. Overseas demand was sluggish due to the summer break, foreign buyers pushed for lower prices, and new orders were scarce. Falling raw material prices dragged down magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices. Small and medium-sized magnesium alloy plants cut production, but earlier stockpiles were ample. Two-wheeler demand weakened, putting processing fees under pressure. Both upstream and downstream demand softened simultaneously, and cost support was insufficient. In the short term, the entire magnesium product range is expected to remain in the doldrums.

Silica: This week, the silica market price range remained stable. Rainy season in south-west China saw some silicon metal plant production resumptions, driving a slight recovery in just-in-time procurement of silica, but the increment was limited. Currently, spot silicon metal remained persistently sluggish, and most silicon metal plants had limited profits, leading to strong willingness to push for lower prices on the procurement side, which persistently suppressed the upside room for silica prices. On the supply side, with rigid support from costs such as mining and transportation, the downside room for silica prices was also limited. Therefore, subject to constraints from both supply and demand, silica prices are expected to remain stable with a consolidating trend in the short term. The high-grade silica mine-mouth price in Hubei remained at 310-350 yuan/mt, that in Inner Mongolia at 290-330 yuan/mt; the low-grade silica mine-mouth price in Inner Mongolia stood at 200-240 yuan/mt, and that in Yunnan at 150-180 yuan/mt. Silicon Coal: This week, the silicon coal market price remained stable. Regional quotations: Gansu silicon granulated coal at 1,120 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal at 1,040 yuan/mt; Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon granulated coal at 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at 855 yuan/mt; Xinjiang caking silicon coal at 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, driven by production resumptions at silicon metal plants in south-west China during the rainy season, the operating rate at some coal processing plants edged up slightly, but the increment was limited, and the overall supply ease of silicon coal did not improve significantly. Demand side, driven by the overall higher operating rate at silicon metal plants, procurement volume edged up. However, given the persistently sluggish market trend, procurement was still limited to just-in-time purchases in small batches, and raw material inventory was generally maintained at a monthly safe stockpiling level. Petroleum Coke: This week, trading in China's petroleum coke market was moderate. Price trends for products of different specifications continued to diverge, and the overall price center edged down slightly. In the Formosa Plastics petroleum coke market, the transaction atmosphere was subdued. Port spot prices remained generally stable, with mainstream transaction prices maintained at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM monitoring, as of this Thursday, the price index for 4# petroleum coke in Shandong was quoted at 1,908.99 yuan/mt, down 7.57% from last Thursday. Supply side, affected by concentrated maintenance at some refineries, the coking unit operating rate in China remained persistently low in early July, further tightening domestic petroleum coke supply. Demand diverged significantly: high operating rates in aluminum electrolysis supported anode just-in-time demand, and carbon enterprises’ monthly restocking provided support for medium-sulphur petroleum coke; while negative electrode enterprises reduced costs and procured on a just-in-time basis, leaving low-sulphur petroleum coke with insufficient upward momentum. Overall, the petroleum coke market is expected to maintain a consolidating and divergent trend in the short term. Electrode Used in Silicon Production: This week, prices of electrode used in silicon production continued to run at low levels. Production resumptions at some silicon metal plants in south-west China during the rainy season drove a slight rebound in the overall operating rate of silicon metal plants. Just-in-time procurement of electrodes increased slightly, but the incremental space was limited. Additionally, on the supply side, producers had accumulated inventories from the previous period, leading to fierce competition in shipments. The overall market remained in oversupply, and prices lacked effective support. Therefore, the short-term market is expected to primarily operate at low levels. If you wish to obtain more detailed market information and dynamics, or have other information needs, please call 021-20707889.

The European Union is preparing to introduce a 15% levy on aluminium scrap exports to retain more recyclable metal within the bloc and strengthen critical raw material security. The proposal, expected on September 9, follows record EU aluminium scrap exports of 1.27 million tonnes in 2025, up about 50% from 2019, mainly to India and China. European Aluminium estimates the EU faces a 2-million-tonne annual scrap deficit, with around 15% of recycling furnace capacity sitting idle due to insufficient feedstock. The proposal still requires approval from EU member states before taking effect.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices rose somewhat this week, while nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices fell steadily.

This week, China's second-life application market operated smoothly overall, with prices across all categories remaining flat. Market transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement, and the supply-demand pattern did not show significant fluctuations. Raw material trends diverged: lithium carbonate stopped falling and rebounded this week, while nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate continued their weak, sluggish decline. However, second-life battery cell prices did not undergo noticeable adjustments accordingly. Currently, second-life product prices are already at a relatively low level, with limited downside room; meanwhile, the demand side also lacks significant incremental support and upward momentum. In the short term, with neither rise nor fall easy, prices naturally remained stable. On the supply side, quotations for new battery cells were generally stable, providing a clear price anchor for second-life A- and B-grade battery cells, and their quotations remained steady throughout. Dismantled battery cells, supported by rigid dismantling costs, saw prices stabilize in tandem, with no clear upward or downward momentum for the time being.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices bottomed out and consolidated higher. The futures market was strong, with the most-traded 2609 contract rebounding sharply from 145,300-154,700 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 162,200-167,800 yuan/mt. The mid-week high touched 167,800 yuan/mt, and the weekly gain was about 8.4%. Market sentiment diverged significantly between upstream and downstream players. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with low willingness to sell below 170,000 yuan/mt. Some enterprises, supported by costs, maintained the intention to keep prices high. Downstream material plants had largely completed their month-end stockpiling for the next month. As prices consolidated higher, purchases were mainly need-based, restocking was cautious, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained low. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable and quiet, with the spot-futures price spread strengthening slightly. Supply-side output fell sharply, strengthening expectations of supply contraction. Lithium carbonate production fell sharply this week, mainly because the circulation of spodumene and lepidolite raw materials in the market was relatively tight, while some lithium chemical plants had maintenance plans, leading to a sharp drop in spodumene-based output. Salt lake-based and recycling-based output maintained steady gains. Multiple bullish factors on the supply side converged to drive the price rebound. First, raw material supply tightened, with spot circulation of spodumene concentrates tightening, coupled with maintenance plans at some lithium chemical plants, strengthening expectations of near-term supply contraction. Second, signs of a phased decline in imports emerged: Chile’s lithium carbonate exports to China fell 40.8% MoM in May, and domestic import arrivals are expected to decline subsequently. On the demand side, downstream production schedules in July showed significant growth and remained high. The domestic lithium carbonate supply-demand balance is expected to show a large destocking pattern in July. Looking ahead, near-term lithium carbonate prices may hold up well and consolidate, but upside room should be viewed with caution. Near-term lithium prices are expected to consolidate in the 160,000-170,000 yuan/mt range. It is recommended to focus on the progress of mine license renewal in Jiangxi, the pace of port arrivals of lithium ore from Zimbabwe, changes in downstream acceptance of high prices, and the extent of warrant retreat from high levels.

[SMM Analysis] Anti-Dumping Investigation Arrived China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Encountered Major Changes