[SMM Chrome Daily Review: As Steel Tender Bidding Period Approaches, Chrome Market Largely Adopts Wait-and-See Stance] May 18, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced slight fluctuations...

[Guangxi Liuzhou Earthquake Has No Impact on Zinc Industry for Now] At 00:21 on May 18, a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck Liunan District, Liuzhou City, Guangxi, with a focal depth of 8 kilometers. A magnitude 3.3 earthquake struck again at 07:41. As Guangxi is an important zinc raw material supply region, according to SMM, the earthquake has had no impact on zinc smelter production for now, and enterprise production is operating normally.

Conference Name: AIAC 2026 SMM (15th) Aluminum Industry Annual Conference Conference Date: October 12-13, 2026 Conference Venue: Guiyang, China Conference Theme: Long-term Contracts · Trade · Market Trends Organizer: SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. In 2026, the global aluminum industry is at a critical juncture of profound transformation and strategic transition. As the world's largest aluminum producer (accounting for approximately 60% of global aluminum production), China's industrial dynamics profoundly influence the global market landscape. The industry currently faces multiple challenges and opportunities, including global resource allocation and import dependence, the supply-demand pattern of alumina and aluminum, long-term contract trading models and risk management, and responses to geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. Against this backdrop, China's aluminum industry urgently needs to achieve breakthroughs through technological innovation, enhance efficiency and set benchmarks through management upgrades, and ultimately realize a strategic leap from "scale advantage" to "quality advantage," advancing steadily on the path of high-quality development. Thisis scheduled to be held in Guiyang on October 12-13, 2026. Organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., the conference will focus on global bauxite allocation strategies, innovation in long-term contract pricing models, optimization of price forecasting models, application of risk hedging tools, energy transition pathways, and technological innovation directions, aiming to help enterprises seize opportunities for high-quality development of the aluminum industry under the "dual carbon" goals and achieve sustained industrial growth. Conference Value | Conference Value This conference focuses on upstream resource security, long-term contract trade, market insights and price forecasting, risk hedging, energy transition, and technological innovation sharing, with particular emphasis on global bauxite allocation, the supply-demand balance of alumina and aluminum, and long-term contract pricing models. It aims to help enterprises grasp market trends, optimize resource allocation, address trade challenges, and promote the healthy development of the aluminum industry. Attendees | Attendees This conference will invite representatives from premium enterprises across the aluminum industry chain (bauxite, alumina, aluminum, aluminum processing), traders, end-users, government leaders, trade associations, authoritative experts, industry research institutions, financial institutions, and other industry representatives. The conference is expected to attract over 500 attendees. Past Conference Guests Company Name Company Representative Name Name Job Title Job Title Main Products Main Products Shandong Aluminium Industry Association SHANDONG ALUMINIUM INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Wen Xianjun Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. Li Guangfei Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, General Manager Aluminum, alumina, bauxite SPIC Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. State Power Investment Corporation Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. Liu Renjian General Manager Bauxite, alumina, aluminum and related products Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Li Jipeng General Manager Aluminum, aluminum billet, aluminum coil, aluminum rod Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd Jiang Zhen Sales General Manager Alumina, aluminum Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Qian Yu General Manager Aluminum, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil Henan Shenhuo International Trading Co., Ltd. HENAN SHENHUO INTERNATIONAL TRADING CO., LTD. Zhang Linhai General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Meng Tao General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Fan Weiguo Deputy General Manager Aluminum Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co., Ltd. Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co. Ltd. Wu Chuanghui General Manager Aluminum, copper cathode Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Wu Xiaojun Chairman Aluminum plate/sheet and strip Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., ltd. Zhao Yonghua Vice President Aluminum Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Gao Wenjie Deputy General Manager Aluminum Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Li Wenchao General Manager Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and TradeCo..Ltd Deng Gang President of China Marketing Primary Aluminum Luoyang Xiangjiang Wanji Aluminium Co., Ltd. LUOYANG XIANGJIANG WANJI ALUMINIUM Wang Wenjie General Manager Alumina Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association He Faping President and Secretary General Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Li Zhenlei Director of Industry Information Department Henan Provincial Nonferrous Metals Association Henan Provincel Nonferrous Metals Association Li Ruxi Vice President Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Liu Lilin Secretary General Association Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Shen Yue Deputy Secretary General Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Gao Jinzhi President, Deputy Director of Huolinguole Municipal People's Congress Standing Committee Huolinguole Regional Economic Cooperation Financial Services Center Huolinguole Regional EconomicCooperation Financial Services Center Wang Kaifei Director Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum Industry Association Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum IndustryAssociation TBD Association * Only a partial list of attending guests is shown. To obtain the complete directory of the 2025 Aluminum Industry Annual Conference, please contact our customer service. Manager Chu (Miya) 13642049827 chuzhaolan@smm.cn Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days! Conference Content | Agenda This year's conference is planned to consist of two full-day main sessions | a processing and trade matchmaking session | a cross-border arbitrage training session | a public competitive bidding procurement session for bulk raw materials by a multinational aluminum giant (the specific company name is not disclosed for now) | an aluminum industry annual gala dinner | and a field trip to local leading aluminum enterprises. The first-day main session focused on upstream changes in the aluminum industry, energy reshaping and zero-carbon technologies, providing insights into the new course of China's aluminum industry under global supply chain restructuring. The second-day core highlights revolved around strategic opportunities arising from the global aluminum supply gap, with a focus on NEV lightweighting, battery foil and other growth segments, while driving aluminum semis toward high-end breakthroughs through digital transformation. Pending. Content Summary | Abstract I. Geopolitical Black Swans and Energy Crisis: Contraction of Aluminum Supply Outside China and Restructuring of Global Trade Flows II. Shifts in the Global Bauxite Supply Chain: Guinea's Policies, Geopolitical Risks and China's Resource Security III. Inert Anode Technology: The "Zero-Carbon Revolution" in the Aluminum Industry and Industrialisation Timetable IV. Middle East Black Swans and China's Opportunities: Aluminum Semis Export Strategy Amid the Global Aluminum Supply Gap V. Reshaping Energy Costs in the Aluminum Industry: From "Securing Supply" to "Reducing Costs" VI. As Electricity Market Reform Deepens, How Much Room Remains for Low-Cost Power in the Aluminum Industry? VII. Lightweighting Applications of Aluminum Alloys Across All NEV Scenarios VIII. Growth Segments for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil: Demand Explosion in Battery Foil, Energy Storage and Packaging Materials IX. AI Large Models Empowering Aluminum: From Intelligent Electrolysis Cells to Full-Process Digital Factories X. Implementation of Guinea's New Policies: How to Balance Long-Term Contract Supply Security and Localisation Considerations ······ Past Industry Leaders: Wen Xianjun, Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) and Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association; Mamadou Cherif LY, General Manager of AISC Group; Wito Krisnahad, President of PT Kalimantan Aluminum Company; Ousmane Kaba, Director of Guinea's National Ministry of Mines and Geology; Bachir Diallo, Deputy Director of Guinea's Mining Infrastructure Development Bureau; Dong Chunming, General Manager of Sunlight Metal/ASI Consultant; Wang Lijiao, Deputy General Manager of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd.; Liu Xiaolei, Big Data Director of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.··· *Only a partial list of guest speakers is shown. This year's conference is expected to feature 37+ presentation reports. If you have any questions about the specific arrangements and core content of the conference, please contact us. Contact: Chu Zhaolan Tel: 13642049827 (same number on WeChat) Email: chuzhaolan@smm.cn Conference Official Website Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days!

According to NBS data, from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% YoY in real terms (all value-added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.1% YoY. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in April increased 0.05% from the previous month. By three major sectors, in April, the value added of the mining industry grew 3.8% YoY, manufacturing grew 4.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 5.3%. By economic type, in April, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 3.0% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 4.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 4.1%; and private enterprises grew 2.8%. By industry, in April, 29 out of 41 major industrial categories maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 3.8%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 4.6%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 3.5%, liquor, beverages, and refined tea manufacturing declined 1.4%, textiles grew 2.3%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing grew 5.3%, non-metallic minerals products manufacturing declined 6.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.0%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing declined 1.0%, general equipment manufacturing grew 5.5%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 9.2%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 8.2%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 3.1%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 15.6%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 6.2%. By product, in April, 321 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products (122.63 million mt, down 1.7% YoY), cement (145.71 million mt, down 10.8%), ten kinds of non-ferrous metals (6.94 million mt, up 2.8%), ethylene (3.15 million mt, down 4.1%), automobiles (2.564 million units, down 2.6%), of which NEVs (1.296 million units, up 3.8%); power generation (744 billion kWh, up 2.6%); and crude oil processing volume (54.65 million mt, down 5.8%). In April, the sales ratio of products of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.1%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,373.3 billion yuan, up 10.6% YoY in nominal terms.

Polish copper producer KGHM said it is seeking mining investments in Europe and Morocco to secure ore supplies closer to its smelting operations in Poland. The company aims to reduce logistics costs and geopolitical risks through a “near-shoring” strategy for raw materials. KGHM is also considering converting older smelting facilities into recycling plants. Analysts say tight copper supply conditions are accelerating regional supply-chain restructuring across the mining sector.

In April 2026, the secondary copper rod operating rate was 12.79%, higher than the expected 11.93%, down 1.46 percentage points MoM and 21.1 percentage points YoY. Looking back at the entire month of April, the secondary copper rod market, under the prevailing theme of copper prices fluctuating upward, was mired in structural contradictions triggered by industrial policies,...

After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

Trump's May 13-15, 2026 state visit starkly contrasts with his Nov 2017 trip, where $250B in deals epitomized globalization. Months later, in March 2018, a trade war erupted.