[SMM Aluminum Express] Current raw material prices, such as fluorite and sulphuric acid, are stable, providing strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, the spot market is ample, and with expectations of enterprises gradually resuming production after the holiday, future supply is expected to continue increasing. Demand side, the rebound is only driven by rigid restocking demand from the aluminum industry, lacking significant positive boosts. Overall, cost support remains, but no strong upward momentum has formed yet. Combined with aluminum enterprises' strong push for lower prices, aluminum fluoride prices in March are expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening trend.

Overall, cost support remains, but has not yet formed strong upward momentum, combined with aluminum enterprises' strong push for lower prices, aluminum fluoride prices in March are expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening trend.

SMM Feburary 16 News: Raw material side, this week lithium carbonate prices began to rise continuously, while cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices remained stable.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.

SMM Feburary 26 News: This week, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices were basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices fell before rising again.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

[SMM Survey on Operating Rate of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets] According to an SMM survey, as of February 28, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets that mainly produce construction materials was 0%, down 24.49 percentage points MoM from the January operating rate and down 16.21 percentage points YoY.

February SMM China copper cathode production decreased by 36,900 mt MoM, a decline of 3.13%, and was up 7.96% YoY.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

[SMM Analysis: Cost and Fundamentals Resonate, High-Grade NPI Prices Rise Rapidly] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose WoW by 26.1 yuan/mtu to 1,071.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price increased WoW by $3.31/mtu to $136.32/mtu. After the Chinese New Year, the high-grade NPI market gradually recovered this week. Supported by both fundamentals and costs, high-grade NPI prices continued to climb.