SMM 7.31 News： According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2026 fell approximately 1.0% year-on-year but rose 25.0% month-on-month. Overseas alumina supply showed significant recovery in July, as capacity previously constrained by Middle East tensions, hurricanes, and unplanned outages improved to varying degrees. Middle Eastern producers gradually resumed operations, Atlantic-region capacity affected by disruptions also recovered, and an Indian producer continued its slow ramp-up. By company and region: Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects bauxite and alumina export revenues to rise 24% year-on-year to $760 million in 2026, driven by post-hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts, though still below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica's alumina production fell 30.3% year-on-year to 267,060 mt, with bauxite output down 26.4% to 415,143 mt, while exports also contracted. The low-base rebound in July provided some modest support to overseas supply. In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian President's Office recently called for enhanced regulatory oversight, as exports of certain alumina products containing rare earth elements have faced obstacles. Indonesia has yet to issue regulations specifying permissible rare earth content in export products, and this policy uncertainty could pose disruptions to subsequent outbound shipments. In the Middle East, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery on July 10, with production expected to reach 50% of capacity within days, and the company aims to achieve full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the restart timeline for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) remains unclear, while Qatalum continues to operate at only 60% of capacity. Geopolitical risks in the region persist. Additionally, South32's FY2026 production report showed Brazilian alumina output rose 5.3% year-on-year to 1.4 million mt. The company reiterated its binding agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for approximately $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2027. Looking ahead to August, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to continue its recovery, with overall availability trending looser. The Middle East restart, improved Indonesian raw material access, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute incremental supply. However, the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, while Indonesia's rare earth regulatory policies and quota issues, along with European sanctions uncertainty, could still disrupt the supply recovery. Supply-side uncertainties persist.

SMM, July 31 – Sentiment on A-share semiconductor industry chain futures recovered, and the improved industry chain prosperity transmitted upstream, driving a sharp rally in the strategic minor metal sector. As of the close on July 31, the minor metal sector had risen 2.96%. Among individual stocks, Yunnan Tin and Yunnan Germanium both surged over 8%, while Orient Tantalum, Zhongxi Nonferrous, Xiamen Tungsten, Haotong Technology, Western Metal Materials, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Shenghe Resources led the gains. This round of minor metal strength was driven by the resonance of multiple industrial dynamics. On one hand, the semiconductor and AI computing track regained heat, with expectations for demand expansion in high-speed optical modules, AI servers, and other fields improving. Germanium and tantalum, as core raw materials for semiconductor optoelectronic devices and high-end tantalum capacitors, are seeing steadily strengthened demand support from downstream emerging industries. On the other hand, germanium and tantalum are strategic dispersed metals with concentrated global supply. Coupled with overseas geopolitical disruptions and expectations of supply tightening from domestic resource controls, while the ongoing localisation of related high-end semiconductor materials continued to advance, this further boosted market allocation sentiment and pushed the sector higher. News [Yunnan Germanium: Subsidiary Signs Major Indium Phosphide Wafer Supply Order Worth RMB 570–855 Million, H1 Net Profit Expected to Increase YoY] Yunnan Germanium announced on July 24 that its controlled subsidiary Yunnan Xinyao recently signed a supply agreement with a client for the sale of indium phosphide wafers (substrates). The total estimated contract value ranges from RMB 570.08 million to RMB 855.12 million (tax inclusive), accounting for 53.48% to 80.23% of the company’s audited revenue for 2025. The contract term runs from August 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. Regarding the contract’s impact on the listed company, Yunnan Germanium stated that if the contract is fulfilled smoothly, it is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s operating results for the performance years. The specific amount and reporting periods affected will depend on the actual performance of the contract and will be based on the company’s audited revenue. [Orient Tantalum: Domestic Demand for High-Value-Added Products Such as Superalloys and Semiconductor Tantalum Targets Is Gradually Rising] Orient Tantalum stated during an institutional survey on July 23 that, with the continuous development of China’s high-tech and new infrastructure sectors, domestic demand for high-value-added products such as superalloys, semiconductor tantalum targets, and high-purity niobium materials is gradually rising. In recent years, the company has vigorously promoted technical transformation and capacity expansion projects, organized production rationally, and gradually released new capacity. Under the guidance of the strategy for autonomous and controllable industry chains, the localisation substitution process has evolved from breakthroughs in individual products to systematic solutions, laying a solid foundation for the growth of tantalum, niobium, and their alloy products. [Yunnan Tin: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit of 1.47–1.57 Billion Yuan, Up 38.43%–47.85% YoY] Yunnan Tin disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting attributable net profit in H1 2026 to be 1.47 billion to 1.57 billion yuan, up 38.43%–47.85% YoY; and recurring net profit is expected to be 1.88 billion to 1.98 billion yuan, up 44.23%–51.91% YoY. Spot Market Tin Overnight, some US chip stocks rebounded, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged, boosting the performance of tin, known as the “computing metal.” SHFE tin opened higher on July 31, lifting spot prices. In the tin spot market: On July 31, the average price of SMM 1# tin was 425,850 yuan/mt, up 1.51% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, spot market trading was sluggish. Fundamentals: (1) Supply: Tight ore and ingot supply, low inventory, amplifying elasticity. Myanmar’s rainy season extends through end-August, with mine flooding and logistics disruptions; Wa State’s June tin ore output was only 6,392 mt in physical content. China’s tin ore imports in July are expected to be basically flat MoM. The slow pace of production resumptions in Wa State has been priced in ahead of time, with no major shutdowns in the near term, but supply contraction expectations during the rainy season have yet to fully materialize. Indonesia’s tin ingot imports in July are expected to show some recovery MoM. (2) Demand: Improved solder operating rates, but acceptance of high prices needs to be tested. The operating rate at solder enterprises was 78.8% in June, up 4.6 percentage points from May; however, after the sharp spot price rally on July 30, downstream users were cautious and stayed on the sidelines, and whether high-priced spot cargoes can be absorbed still requires verification. Stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei models in late August is the next demand trigger point. Institutional Views A research report from Minmetals Securities points out: Germanium accounts for 60% of applications in optical communication and satellite PV fields, making it a metal for “AI computing power + space energy.” With its excellent refractive index tuning capability and radiation resistance, germanium has become a key material for AI data center optical interconnects and low-earth-orbit satellite PV systems. Looking at changes in demand structure, from 2020 to 2026, downstream germanium consumption grew from 160 mt to 240 mt, with optical communication’s share rising to 40% and satellite PV’s share to 20%, together accounting for 60% of total downstream demand. It expects that 90% of the demand growth in 2027 will come from two high-growth sectors: AI hardware and satellite PV. A research report from Caitong Securities shows: As AI computing power demand explodes, the market size of indium phosphide, used as a chip substrate material, will continue to expand. Indium resources are scarce and subject to policy restrictions, and product prices are entering an uptrend. High-purity red phosphorus is a very important semiconductor base material, with high purification technology barriers. Against the backdrop of accelerated AI application deployment driving related infrastructure construction, the indium phosphide substrate industry chain is expected to see dual opportunities from demand growth and domestic substitution. It is recommended to focus on enterprises with resource and technological advantages in the links of indium phosphide, indium, and high-purity red phosphorus. A research report from Datong Securities shows that minor metals have staged an independent rally, with tightened supply combined with strategic attributes leading to a value revaluation. The rare earth sector is preemptively pricing in new regulatory controls, with Myanmar ore imports disrupted, tight spot supply of Pr-Nd oxide driving prices sharply higher; tungsten and antimony ore grades are declining along with environmental protection-driven production restrictions, widening the supply gap, while PV and hard alloy demand remains firm during the off-season, and inventories are at low levels. AI computing power and communications sectors are boosting demand for gallium and germanium, and coupled with export control policies, concentrated stockpiling outside China is widening the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Scarce resources are resonating with financial attributes, and the sector continues to be favoured by capital. Recommended Reads:

SMM, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China fell approximately 1.0% YoY in July 2026, while rising about 25.0% MoM. July saw a notable recovery-driven increase in alumina supply outside China, as capacity previously constrained by the Middle East situation, hurricanes, and unplanned production cuts was restored to varying degrees. Enterprises in the Middle East gradually resumed production, disrupted capacity in the Atlantic region also recovered step by step, and an Indian enterprise slowly ramped up production. By enterprise and region: Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects that as post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction advances, bauxite and alumina export revenue will grow 24% YoY to $760 million in 2026, though this remains below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica’s alumina production fell 30.3% YoY to 267,060 mt, bauxite production dropped 26.4% YoY to 415,143 mt, and exports contracted in tandem; against a low base, the recovery in July provided a certain supplement to supply outside China. In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian presidential office recently called for stronger oversight. Exports have been hindered because some alumina contains rare earth elements, yet Indonesia has not introduced regulations on rare earth content. This policy uncertainty could cause disruptions to subsequent exports. In the Middle East, EGA restarted the alumina refinery at its Al Taweelah site on July 10 and expects to restore 50% capacity within a few days, aiming for full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the production resumption at the Bahrain aluminum smelter remains unclear and the Qatar aluminum smelter is still running at 60% capacity, with geopolitical risks yet to recede. Elsewhere, South32’s FY2026 report showed that its Brazilian alumina production grew 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million mt, and the company reaffirmed its plan to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for about $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027. Looking ahead to August, the supply of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China is expected to continue recovering, trending broadly looser. Production resumptions in the Middle East, improving raw material conditions in Indonesia, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute growth. However, the Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and uncertainties linked to Indonesia’s rare earth regulatory policy and quota issues, along with European sanctions, could still cause disruptions, leaving some supply-side uncertainty in place. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not rely on this article as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decision made by a client shall have no connection to Shanghai Metals Market.) Data source: SMM

[ SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment ] As the weekend approaches, the rare earth market is sluggish, with Pr-Nd oxide suppliers offering few quotes and most metal plants refraining from inquiries and purchases for now; the gadolinium oxide market also remains sluggish, with prices showing no significant change from the morning session; the Pr-Nd alloy market sees limited inquiry activity, with some suppliers lowering their quotes, but actual transactions have not improved significantly, and downstream players show a strong wait-and-see sentiment; the gadolinium iron market also sees limited inquiries, with quotes stable at 202,000-205,000 yuan/mt

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] Japan's auto parts maker Mitsuba has begun mass supply of rare-earth-free sunroof drive motors to a German automaker, marking the latest advance in the global automotive industry's push for rare-earth-free solutions. The motor adopts a redesigned magnetic circuit structure and non-rare-earth magnetic materials, achieving torque and durability comparable to conventional products without using rare earth elements such as neodymium. Currently, the product has been installed in multiple car models produced by the German automaker in Europe. Mitsuba plans to extend its rare-earth-free technology to on-board motor products such as wipers and power windows in the future, aiming to reduce supply chain risks and cost fluctuations.

[SMM Rare Earth Express] The government of Kerala, India, announced that it has allocated 1 billion rupees (about $11.5 million) in the 2026–2027 budget and plans to build a rare earth and critical mineral corridor centered on Kollam, to promote mineral processing and the development of the critical mineral industry, and enhance India’s critical mineral supply chain capacity. However, the project is still in the planning stage. The construction plan for a rare earth processing plant, industry partners, offtake agreements, and specific timetables have not yet been disclosed, nor has the participation of IREL (India) or international enterprises been confirmed. Industry insiders believe that the 1 billion rupees can only serve as initial startup capital, falling far short of the tens of billions of US dollars needed to build a complete industry chain covering rare earth separation, metal, and magnet manufacturing. Therefore, at this stage, it more represents a policy signal for India to strengthen its strategic layout for critical minerals rather than a mature industrial investment project.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] A research team from Southern Illinois University in the US has discovered that algae can increase the concentration of rare earth elements by more than double, offering a new approach beyond chemical processes for green rare earth extraction and potentially helping the US strengthen its critical minerals supply chain. The researchers added rare earth-containing rock powder and microalgae to a simulated river system, and the experimental results showed that the algae could absorb and concentrate rare earth elements, which were then recovered through a patented process. This technology is expected to reduce reliance on chemical agents such as sulphuric acid, and can be applied to the recovery of rare earths from secondary resources such as coal ash, mine tailings, and electronic waste. The team is currently testing more algae species and plans to apply for funding from the US National Science Foundation to further advance the research.

[SMM Rare Earths Flash] Rare Earths Americas (REA) announced that drilling at the Liberty Peak target in the Foothills rare earth district, Georgia, US, has intersected monazite-bearing placer mineralization with characteristics similar to the Shiloh project 50 km away, indicating the mineralized zone may be continuous rather than a single deposit. REA noted that previous drilling and surface sampling at the Shiloh project returned total rare earth oxide (TREO) grades of up to 44.5%, and the company believes the placer system may extend to Liberty Peak and multiple surrounding targets, expanding the Foothills rare earth mineralized area to 17.5 times that of the Shiloh target. Initial drilling at Liberty Peak intersected mineralization over 10 meters thick, with several holes yet to penetrate the orebody.

The performance of rare earth market varieties diverged markedly in July. Pr-Nd oxide prices followed an overall “rally early on before pulling back, with weakness at month-end” pattern, most directly affected by sentiment driven by negative news. Terbium oxide experienced a reasonable pullback in the second half, but the surge in the first half still lifted its price center. Dysprosium oxide was stable, not following the sharp ups and downs, and remained firm overall. Early in the month, the rare earth market reversed its prior weakness, experiencing a wave of concentrated upward momentum. The core driver was a top-tier player entering the market to purchase, boosting sentiment, coupled with production cuts and shutdowns at raw ore separation and scrap recycling enterprises making low-priced supplies hard to find, prompting upstream suppliers to hold back from selling and hold prices firm. Pr-Nd oxide, as a bellwether, saw prices quickly rebound from around 743,000-747,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to briefly touch a range of 765,000-770,000 yuan/mt. Terbium oxide was particularly outstanding; affected by tight supply and purchases from major plants, the largest single-day gain in the first half reached 125,000 yuan/mt. However, the upward momentum failed to sustain throughout the month. From mid-to-late month, the traditional high-temperature holiday for downstream users led to a marked decline in operating rates at motor plants and end-user magnetic material enterprises. Magnetic material enterprises were less receptive to high-priced raw materials, shifting to purchasing on a rigid demand basis at lower prices, which cooled trading activity. Toward month-end, negative news combined with a sharp decline in Pr-Nd oxide futures dealt a blow, causing spot market sentiment to turn sharply negative; market quoting and inquiry activity was weak, with Pr-Nd oxide traded prices falling below 750,000 yuan/mt. From the perspective of driving factors, supply-side contraction provided bottom support—production cuts and shutdowns at some raw ore separation and scrap recycling plants tightened spot availability, and upstream players still had the confidence to hold prices firm, limiting the scope for further deep declines. But the demand-side off-season effect capped upside potential; high-temperature holidays caused insufficient downstream operating rates, and magnetic material enterprises purchased based on sales, resulting in a stalemate tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Meanwhile, sentiment transmission from negative news accelerated fluctuations, triggering a rapid pullback in Pr-Nd oxide prices. On the industry cost front, China Northern Rare Earth and Bao Gang United Steel set the Q3 rare earth concentrates transaction price at 38,565 yuan/mt, down 0.62% QoQ, ending a streak of seven consecutive quarterly increases. Looking ahead to August, the rare earth market is likely to continue its game of push and pull. The supply of rare earth oxides is expected to tighten in the short term, with upstream major producers still holding strong pricing power. Additionally, end-use consumption from NEVs, wind power, and other sectors is expected to see order growth during the traditional peak season in H2. However, August remains a high-temperature off-season, meaning that a noticeable recovery in demand still needs time, and macro uncertainties persist. Mainstream products such as Pr-Nd oxide are expected to consolidate around current levels in the near term, with limited downside room supported by costs. Any rise, however, will need to wait for a substantial recovery in downstream demand and an improvement in macro sentiment.

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order authorizing restrictions on exports of critical minerals-bearing scrap, including electronic waste and used batteries, to strengthen domestic recycling and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. The order directs the U.S. Department of Commerce to develop rules limiting exports of recoverable critical minerals, aiming to retain valuable materials such as lithium, tungsten and rare earths for domestic processing. The move forms part of the administration's broader strategy to bolster U.S. critical minerals security and support domestic recycling capacity.