This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, the e-bike and automotive battery replacement market was in a traditional off-season state. Dealers only purchased as needed, and some enterprises reported weakening orders and reduced production. In terms of battery selling prices, there were no sales promotions as typically seen during the off-season in previous years, mainly due to rising raw material costs. Apart from rising lead prices, prices of other auxiliary materials also trended upward. In particular, sulphuric acid prices surged significantly since late March, with smelting-grade sulphuric acid prices rising by over 50%, and quotes in some regions approaching 2,000 yuan/mt. In addition, lead prices fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, downstream enterprises purchased as needed on dips, and market transactions were moderate. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and most downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach with cautious purchasing, with spot market transactions remaining sluggish.

SMM April 17 News: Lead prices were weak in the first half of this week, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt, and smelters saw sluggish shipments. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and quotes pulled back to discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, with shipment enthusiasm rebounding. Downstream sectors were in the consumption off-season, mainly restocking on dips and purchasing via long-term contracts. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified. Both supply and demand are expected to be weak next week, with premiums moving sideways. Affected by weak lead prices and high scrap battery costs, secondary lead smelting losses widened. As of April 17, large-scale enterprises posted profits/losses of -200 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted -404 yuan/mt. Some producers plan to cut or halt production next week to control losses. Weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and the industry's loss-making landscape will be difficult to reverse in the short term.

[SMM Nickel News] April 17, supply side, the HPM new policy continued to ferment, nickel prices rose again, while stainless steel futures also increased notably, with upstream quotes generally raised. Demand side, although current demand was not urgent, with prices rising consistently across the supply chain, downstream acceptance of high-grade NPI prices improved. Overall, futures and stainless steel spot prices rose, and the price center of high-grade NPI continued to shift upward.

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On April 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rose significantly.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt. After briefly touching $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session, it fluctuated downward. Entering the European session, LME lead extended its decline, dipping to $1,946/mt late in the session and closing at $1,947/mt, down 0.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 16,765 yuan/mt early in the session, it fluctuated downward to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. On the macro front: On Thursday, US President Trump said the war among the US, Israel, and Iran was “about to end,” and the White House was optimistic about reaching an agreement, saying more face-to-face talks might be held in Pakistan this weekend. US Fed—Williams: if inflation pulls back to 2%, cutting interest rate is an appropriate move, but it has not reached that stage yet; Milan: inclined to cut interest rate three times this year, possibly four times; as of this morning, interest rate futures priced in cumulative interest rate cuts of about 9 bp for the full year. China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to advance the industrial development of the low-altitude economy for central state-owned enterprises. National Bureau of Statistics: in March, the MoM change in sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%; value-added industrial output above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. : After lead prices rose, lead smelters and traders became more willing to make shipments, though differences in shipments remained. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 130 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, losses eased relatively, smelters’ willingness to ship increased, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, downstream enterprises had limited procurement demand and stayed on the sidelines amid high prices, and spot order transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On April 16, LME lead inventory fell by 350 mt to 275,625 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions edged up. Today’s lead price forecast: The lead-acid battery market is in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream enterprises have limited procurement demand, and spot market trading activity is relatively weak. In addition, due to delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract, suppliers transferred inventory to delivery warehouses, and overall social inventory continued to rise. Also, medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China saw concentrated production cuts and suspensions, including factors such as routine maintenance and insufficient raw materials. In addition, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead narrowed, import lead premium quotes rose, and the inflow of imported refined lead decreased relatively. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined on the fundamentals and geopolitical issues recurring, lead prices maintained wild swings in the short term. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt prices hovered at lows this week. Supply side, the firm-pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters holding ex-factory quotes steady and traders maintaining spot-futures price spreads at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw weak orders and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, mostly procuring in small batches at high frequency to control inventory risks. However, after prices stabilized at low levels, some enterprises turned bullish on the outlook, and restocking willingness improved. In the short term, weak demand continued to weigh on prices, but high raw material costs and the reverse price spread provided strong floor support. Prices were expected to remain range-bound; as demand recovers going forward, refined cobalt still has upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week, with spot quotes edging up gradually. Supply side, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and some miners also participated in market purchases, further intensifying the tight spot supply situation. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered somewhat, but as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, and actual transactions were limited. It was learned that DRC export volumes in March increased significantly, but most cargoes currently remained stranded at South African ports or in transit by land, with a low proportion having secured vessel bookings. Concentrated arrivals at ports were not expected until June–July. As downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is released going forward, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market saw sluggish trading activity this week, with prices continuing a gradual downward trend. Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered quotes to 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders, under cash flow pressure, made concessions on shipments, with low-quality cargo prices staying at 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream orders remained uncertain, compounded by top-tier enterprises having ample inventory and low-priced cargo dampening purchase sentiment, resulting in overall weak restocking willingness downstream, with only small volumes of low-priced resources procured on an as-needed basis. Cost side, cobalt intermediate product prices rose, and Indonesia's nickel tax policy pushed up smelting costs, significantly weakening enterprises' willingness to cut prices; meanwhile, some downstream players believed prices were already at low levels and their own inventory was approaching safety margins, generating restocking willingness. Cobalt sulphate prices may gradually stabilize, and once procurement demand recovers, prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Rising Primary Aluminum Prices Push Up Costs, While Weak Supply and Demand Constrain Secondary Aluminum Gains