[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment as the Tungsten Market Awaited Stabilization in Transactions] SMM News, March 18 Tungsten market prices were largely stable today, with only minor fluctuations, and the market showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Trading volume in segments such as tungsten ore and APT was sparse, with transaction prices mostly hovering around the quoted price range. Transactions for downstream products such as powder were also limited, and transaction prices showed a slight downward trend.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Silver prices remained in the doldrums today. After the spot-futures price spread narrowed, premiums in the spot market continued to decline. In the Shanghai market, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots in the morning session were adjusted down to a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, but downstream consumption remained sluggish. As rigid demand for raw materials decreased, some suppliers lowered premiums to sell off cargoes and close deals. Although some smelters were reluctant to sell, quoting silver ingots at a premium of 150 yuan/kg against the 2606 contract or a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, actual transactions were scarce. In the Shenzhen market, non-standard registered brand silver ingots were sold off at parity or slight discounts against TD. Downstream buyers made substantial counteroffers and remained cautious on the sidelines. Spot cargoes circulating in the market were ample, and overall market transactions turned weaker.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Increased by 20kt, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,277/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,293/mt before bulls reduced open interest, sending LME zinc fluctuating downward throughout the session and touching a low of $3,210/mt during the night session. The center then rebounded slightly, and it finally closed down at $3,233/mt, down $46/mt, a decrease of 1.4%, with trading volume increasing to 13,404 lots and open interest falling by 3,868 lots to 214,000 lots.

SMM, March 17: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Sellers held prices firm, buyers showed greater price acceptance, and purchasing enthusiasm also increased. Today, mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market were concentrated at -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.12, down 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM. Today, futures prices opened lower and moved higher. Before the opening, quotations in the central China market were relatively high, mainly at discounts of 320-330 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract, then prices gradually declined. Traders maintained strong bullish sentiment and high enthusiasm for purchase, with overall trading volume relatively large. As suppliers basically finished shipments, circulating spot availability became tight, and market quotations continued to rise, but the transaction scale was relatively small. In the end, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 10 yuan below the central China price to 40 yuan above the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.6, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.

March 16, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range $42-52/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $4/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $25/mt (price range $19-31/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. During the day, a large number of buyers sought EQ and OG copper B/L cargoes arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L cargoes arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrivals in late March and early April were quoted at $35/mt, and EQ B/L for arrivals in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.

Silver prices rebounded to catch up today, while premiums in the spot market still showed a downward trend. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots were at premiums of 400 yuan/kg against TD, but downstream consumption remained sluggish. With expectations for silver nitrate operating orders declining and rigid demand for raw materials decreasing, actual spot market transaction premiums were lowered to 300-400 yuan/kg. Some downstream clients mentioned that for bulk purchases exceeding 1 mt, transaction premiums could be negotiated with suppliers down to 250-300 yuan/kg. In South China, smelters quoted silver ingots at a premium of 250 yuan/kg against the 2606 contract or a premium of 400 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were scarce. Suppliers still mainly adjusted prices to drive shipments, while downstream players remained cautious and on the sidelines, and spot market trading stayed sluggish.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: V-Shaped Rebound in Futures, ADC12 to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overnight, aluminum alloy 2604 in the night session bottomed out and showed a rangebound fluctuating trend: after the opening, it quickly fell to around 23,570 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, with a trading range of 23,570-23,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,710 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 0.50% from the previous day's closing price. Intraday, it first fell sharply and then staged a V-shaped rebound, before entering sideways consolidation, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts remaining balanced. Trading volume shrank, open interest edged up slightly, and market sentiment remained cautious.