HRC futures fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,275, down 0.37% MoM. Spot market side, market quotations remained largely stable with slight price cuts in some markets. Market transactions were relatively lackluster, dominated by rigid-demand purchases. In terms of supply, few new maintenance shutdowns were added this week, and coupled with the gradual production resumptions from earlier maintenance, supply showed an incremental trend. Demand side, futures and spot price trends diverged, and spot market purchasing enthusiasm was weak, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory side, Zhangjiagang port inventories accumulated 30,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels, and affected by the holiday, destocking performance in some markets may fall short of ....

[SMM Steel] European Union Q2 steel import quotas were rapidly exhausted in early April, particularly for shipments from India, China, Turkey and Vietnam. India exceeded quotas for 225,305 mt of HRC (1A), while China used up 128,348 mt of metallic coated sheets (4B). Turkey surpassed quotas for 98,153 mt of wire rod and 84,033 mt of hollow sections. Vietnam exceeded its 10,725 mt organic coated sheet quota under “other countries,” with about 17,590 mt awaiting clearance at EU ports.

Precious metal prices continued to fluctuate with a downward bias today. The spot-futures price spread of the most-traded SHFE silver contract widened slightly, and significant discrepancies in spot market quotations persisted. In the Shanghai area, mainstream quotations from registered-brand standard silver ingot suppliers were adjusted down to premiums of 50-60 yuan/kg against TD or quoted at premiums of 20 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract in the morning session. Some non-delivery brand smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site were sold at premiums of 0-10 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream consumption was sluggish, but considering factors such as the spot-futures price spread and costs, registered-brand silver ingot suppliers were inclined to deliver against the SHFE April contract. After the holiday, many downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and spot transactions were thin.

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated to the media on Monday, April 6, 2026, that it has approved approximately 190 to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas within the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno, noted that while the current cumulative target sits between 260 and 270 million tons, Minister Bahlil Lahadalia is considering measured relaxation for production revisions. This potential flexibility for nickel and coal miners remains contingent on price stability and the careful management of global supply and demand to ensure favorable market levels.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper was closed due to Easter. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%; overnight, SHFE copper was closed due to the Qingming Festival. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 0.39%.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weaker Aluminum Prices Weigh on the Market, ADC12 Remains in the Doldrums] Spot side, the ADC12 market continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the widening decline in aluminum prices, market sentiment turned cautious, and most enterprises lowered their quotations; a few enterprises temporarily held prices steady and stayed on the sidelines with support from costs. As the Qingming Festival holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling demand fell short of expectations, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and transaction performance showed no obvious improvement. Coupled with market expectations of weakening demand in April, ADC12 prices are still facing some downward pressure in the short term, and the market remains in the doldrums.

[Concerns Over Supply Shortfalls Triggered by Attacks on Middle Eastern Aluminum Plants Give Aluminum Prices Strong Upward Momentum] Overall, expectations of a substantive supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum plants, combined with low global inventory and a recovery in peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to break out of their trading range and hold up well.

Futures: The LME market was closed from April 3 to April 6 for the Good Friday and Easter holidays; due to the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on the evening of Friday, April 3; normal trading resumed from Tuesday, April 7. On the Macro Front: 1. Trump said Iran's bridge power plants could be destroyed within four hours. 2. Trump on strait transit fees: the US might as well collect them. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: the US rescue operation for pilots may have been aimed at stealing enriched uranium. 4. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest level since early March. 5. China made a major breakthrough in sodium-ion battery technology. 6. Media: Foxconn was trial-producing Apple's foldable-screen phones. Spot Fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead held up well. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, and with the holiday approaching, some suppliers actively made shipments. Premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site were lowered, with quotations in major producing areas mostly around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, while a small number of regions quoted premiums of 50 yuan/mt. For secondary lead, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. However, imported lead continued to flow into China, giving downstream enterprises more choices. Apart from slight stockpiling due to the holiday, other enterprises only purchased as needed. Inventory: As of April 2, LME lead inventory fell by 50 mt to 281,650 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to pull back. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply side, although social inventory of lead ingot in five regions in China continued to decline, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead smelters proceeded in parallel in April. In addition, secondary lead capacity in northern China increased, finished product inventories at plants increased slightly, and imported lead continued to pour in, leaving overall spot supply ample. Demand side, lead-acid batteries entered the traditional off-season, downstream purchase willingness remained cautious, and spot transactions were weak. With phased consumption absent and the risk of post-holiday social inventory buildup elevated, resistance in SHFE lead became more evident. Lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited upside room.

Malaysia's cumulative solar capacity reached 5,777 MW by the end of 2025, adding roughly 1,448 MW over the year, according to 'IEA-PVPS' data. This growth was primarily driven by the country's large-scale solar ('LSS') and net energy metering ('NEM') schemes. In early 2026, Malaysia replaced the 'NEM' with the Solar Accelerated Transition Action Program ('ATAP'), which removes quota constraints to boost rooftop solar adoption but focuses strictly on self-consumption without export benefits. Meanwhile, data centers are spurring mega-projects, including a 1.5 GW solar-plus-storage initiative, though the government has recently restricted new non-AI data centers to manage energy resources.

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Weak Demand Performance, Market Remained in the Doldrums] News on April 3, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets saw limited fluctuations...