On March 10, 2026, Lynas and Japan’s JARE signed a long-term deal featuring PrNd floor prices, profit-sharing, and heavy rare earth priority. Analyzing 2025 production data, this report evaluates the partnership’s commercial terms, operational progress, and downstream demand security.

[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

[CleanTech Is About to Sign a 40-Year Operating Contract With the Chilean Government for the Laguna Verde Lithium Project] CleanTech Lithium, an Anglo-Australian company, is about to sign a 40-year contract with the Chilean government to develop the Laguna Verde lithium project in the Atacama Region, enabling it to advance extraction of this mineral at one of the salt lakes opened to the private sector. After reaching agreement with the Ministry of Mining on the terms of the Special Lithium Operating Contract (CEOL), Chile’s Office of the Comptroller General is now expected to approve the document in Q2 2026. CleanTech, its subsidiary Atacama Salt Lakes, and minority shareholders that are among the consortium members established to advance the Laguna Verde project have begun celebrating this new phase, as it provides greater certainty for their investment. [Rio Tinto Begins Commercial Lithium Exports From the Rincon Project] Rio Tinto’s milestone achievement in commencing commercial lithium exports from the Rincon project marked a pivotal moment for the global lithium market. Miners are currently contending with the complex interplay of resource scarcity, geopolitical tensions, and the accelerating popularization of EVs. The traditional supply-chain dependencies that have defined battery materials sourcing for decades are being reshaped by new producers launching commercial operations in previously underexplored regions. These developments signify not merely a slight increase in capacity, but a fundamental shift in how critical minerals move from extraction sites to manufacturing hubs, with implications far beyond quarterly production data. Rio Tinto’s commercial lithium exports from the Rincon project reflected its prudent positioning in one of the world’s most fiercely contested mining regions for this mineral. Following the suspension of the Jadar project in Serbia in 2025, the company shipped 200 mt of battery-grade lithium carbonate from Buenos Aires to Shanghai in March 2026, marking the official start of operations at its core South American lithium asset. The timing of this market entry reflected broader industry dynamics across the Lithium Triangle. Argentina’s regulatory environment has increasingly favoured large-scale international mining operations. In addition, the Rincon project is located in Salta Province, placing Rio Tinto within a geographic cluster that contains significant global lithium resources across Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia. [The Geothermal Plant Behind Europe’s Lithium Push] The town of Landau in der Pfalz, near the French-German border, has long been at the heart of the local winemaking industry. The region is also home to the Upper Rhine Valley brine fields, which contain Europe’s largest lithium resources and have now made it a hub for Europe’s push to advance EV development. The planned integrated geothermal-lithium extraction plant forms part of renewable energy producer Vulcan Energy’s ambition to build a carbon-neutral EV supply chain in Europe. The project will use geothermal wells to extract lithium-rich brine from depths of up to 5 kilometers. The high-temperature brine will be pumped to the surface, where lithium will be extracted before being transported to a plant. There, the lithium will be converted through electrolysis into lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM). The brine will then be reinjected underground, while LHM will be delivered to offtakers, including automaker Stellantis, which owns automotive brands such as Citroen and Peugeot. [Liontown's Interim Loss Widens as It Bets on a Recovery in Lithium Prices] Australia's Liontown said on Thursday that its loss widened in H1 due to a non-cash accounting charge, and added that it is evaluating potential expansion options for its Kathleen Valley mine as lithium prices are expected to rise. The miner of this raw material used in EV batteries has been seeing an initial price recovery after nearly two years of weakness. Previously, EV adoption was slower than generally expected, resulting in oversupply. Liontown said in its December quarter report that prices improved, with the selling price reaching $900/mt, up 28% from the previous quarter. As its flagship project transitioned to underground mining, the company sold 190,000 mt of spodumene, a lithium raw material, in H1. Source: https://www.investing.com

After returning from the Chinese New Year holiday, Q4 reports from listed miners outside China have been released one after another recently. 2025 was a period of concentrated release of new capacity at mines outside China. What was the specific situation? What are the expectations for 2026? Let us analyze it by enterprise.

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

According to SMM, Indonesian Investment Minister Rosan Perkasa Roeslani revealed during a hearing with House Commission XII that a major stainless steel smelter in Indonesia, which has been commercially operational since 2017, has failed to submit its mandatory LKPM (Investment Activity Report) for 8 consecutive years. Implications: The LKPM is a legally required quarterly report covering investment realization, labor, production data, and partnerships. Due to this non-compliance, the Indonesian government admits it lacks official data on the smelter's actual investment realization, forcing regulators to rely solely on "incidental supervision" to gather information.

After a decade of "simmering," platinum has entered a mode of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise relative to gold, with prices hitting new highs. Through interviews with multiple sources, a reporter from Cailian Press learned that compared to gold's stellar performance in recent years, platinum's former "value trough" is attracting capital inflows. Driven by expectations of supply contraction, jewelers using it as a "flat substitute" for gold, and a significant increase in medium and long-term hydrogen energy demand, the industry generally holds a relatively optimistic outlook for platinum prices in the long term. In the A-share market, shares of platinum industry chain companies such as Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. (600459.SH), Haotong Technology (301026.SZ), and Huayang New Materials (600281.SH) have strengthened recently, all hovering near their two-year highs. Platinum prices hit a nearly 10-year high Since June, platinum prices have entered a rally mode. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, as of June 10, 2025, PLc1 broke through $1,200 per ounce, reaching a nearly 10-year high. As of June 11, the Pt99.95 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by approximately 22% this week. PLc1 price trend. Source: Investing.com "It can be understood as a catch-up rally," Xu Yongqi, chief analyst of metal and new materials at Hua'an Securities, told the reporter. Over the past decade, platinum prices have generally fluctuated considerably. Compared to the strong price trends of gold and silver in recent years, platinum has to some extent formed a "value trough," attracting capital inflows. Zhu Zhigang, director of the Platinum Committee of the Guangdong Gold Association, said in an interview with Cailian Press that the sharp rally in platinum prices in a short period suggests speculative sentiment. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of high gold prices, some upstream merchants in the jewelry market are intentionally increasing efforts to promote platinum as a substitute for gold. A relevant executive from a large domestic jeweler told Cailian Press that since the second half of 2024, the company has been vigorously promoting the sales of platinum series products, as platinum offers higher gross margins compared to gold products. From a fundamental perspective, the continuous pullback in inventory is an important support for the rise in platinum prices. Data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) shows that global above-ground platinum stocks are expected to fall to 67 mt in 2025, meeting only three months of market demand. In the first quarter of 2025, global total platinum supply fell by 10% YoY to 45 mt, while demand increased by 10% YoY to 71 mt over the same period. In terms of platinum demand structure, automotive catalysts account for 40%, jewelry accounts for 25%, industrial uses (excluding the automotive industry) account for 20%, and investment demand accounts for 9%. Three major A-share platinum industry chain companies In the futures market, shares of Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd., Haotong Technology, and Huayang New Materials in the A-share platinum industry chain have strengthened recently, all hovering near their two-year highs. It should be noted that currently, there are no domestic A-share companies primarily engaged in platinum ore business. One of the main businesses of the aforementioned three companies is the recycling, processing, and manufacturing of platinum group metals (platinum, ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, and iridium). A representative from Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. told a Cailian Press reporter that the company is not a mineral resources company. As the prices of the relevant precious metal raw materials have been hedged, their price changes have relatively small impact on the company. The company's main profits come from the processing fees of various precious metal-related products. In fact, Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. is a new materials company. In terms of capacity, Sino-Platinum Metals Co., Ltd. has the largest platinum group metal recycling and utilization base in China, with an annual capacity of around 10 mt currently, equivalent to the output of a medium-sized mine. The actual recycling volume in 2024 was nearly 15 mt. A company representative told a Cailian Press reporter that after the second phase of the Yimen Precious Metal Recycling and Processing Project reaches full production, the company will have an annual platinum group metal capacity of about 20 mt. The project has recently entered the final stage of trial production and is gradually transitioning to mass production. Haotong Technology's production has been unstable in recent years, with precious metal recycling production volumes of approximately 110 mt, 234 mt, and 64 mt from 2022 to 2024. Previously, the company stated on an investor interaction platform that it produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, and ruthenium metals. To avoid excessive exposure of company information and prevent competitors from understanding the company's situation, it has not disclosed specific production data. According to public information, as of the end of 2023, Haotong Technology's processing capacity of spent catalysts containing precious metals was approximately 2,600 mt. The first phase of Haobo New Materials' precious metal secondary resource comprehensive utilization project was designed to process 3,000 t/a of spent automotive catalysts, while the second phase was designed to process 12,000 t/a of spent automotive catalysts and 3,000 t/a of spent agents containing palladium, etc. Haotong Technology previously mentioned in an announcement that the originally planned construction capacity of the aforementioned first-phase project was mainly positioned for spent automotive catalyst recycling. At this stage, a centralized and standardized raw material market for spent automotive catalyst recycling has not yet formed, and the overall development of this market has fallen short of expectations, resulting in the underutilization of some of the company's completed capacities. The company has postponed the date for the entire project to reach the intended usable state to September 30, 2026. An industry chain representative told a reporter that the recycling of platinum group metal scrap is dominated by a seller's market, in a state of full competition. The industry adopts a tendering system, with basically one tender per order. Regarding Huayang New Materials, the company has an annual production capacity of 2,500 kg for platinum mesh products and an annual disposal capacity of 1,000 mt for spent catalysts containing precious metals. The long-term bullish trend remains. Zhu Zhigang stated that if the platinum price can steadily break through the high-pressure level of $1,200/ounce, there is still room for further upside in the future market. Otherwise, it may fall back to around $1,000/ounce again. Meanwhile, attention should also be paid to gold prices, as the price trends of the two metals show a certain degree of convergence. In terms of end-use consumption, industry chain insiders told a Cailian Press reporter that, based on the Shenzhen Shuibei Jewelry Trading Market, platinum series products are currently concentrated in the hands of mid-to-upstream wholesalers, and it will take time for these products to reach end-use consumption, with lower acceptance compared to gold. It is worth noting that platinum inventories among leading jewelry retailers are currently low. Taking Chow Tai Seng (002867.SZ) and CHJ Jewellery (002345.SZ) as examples, as of year-end 2024, platinum products accounted for less than 0.5% of their raw material inventories. An industry insider told a Cailian Press reporter that some upstream enterprises in the jewelry market are actively increasing their marketing efforts for platinum products. Once the market reaches a consensus on buying amid continuous price rise, low inventories will struggle to fully meet demand in the short term, potentially continuing to stimulate platinum price increases. Xu Yongqi stated that, from a fundamental perspective, platinum is in a trend of tight supply and strong demand. Global capital expenditures in the mining sector have declined in recent years, and production has pulled back. In the medium and long-term, global demand for platinum related to hydrogen is expected to grow significantly. Compared to gold or other rare minor metals, the current price increase of platinum is not high. After a decade of stagnation, platinum prices are likely to rise overall in the next three to five years, with the potential to reach $2,000 per ounce. An industry chain insider told a Cailian Press reporter that there is still a certain gap between some of the core technologies of domestic hydrogen fuel cells and those of leading countries such as Japan. The platinum-carbon catalyst in hydrogen fuel cells plays a crucial role in catalyzing discharge, with platinum accounting for about half of the catalyst cost. With the development of China's hydrogen energy industry, there is expected to be a significant increase in platinum demand in the long term. WPIC forecasts that the total platinum supply in 2025 will be at its lowest level in five years, with the expected shortage expanding to 30 mt, marking the third consecutive year of shortage. It is projected that by 2030, global platinum demand from hydrogen energy applications will increase from 1% to 11%.

On May 30th, a tender announcement was issued for the procurement of a 200Nm³/h containerized off-grid hydrogen production system for the 96MWp (Phase I: 60MWp) distributed PV project at Xuantong Mountain, Xuanhua District, Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province. According to the tender announcement, this project is a pilot verification project of a scientific and technological nature undertaken by Jinglai Company. It aims to verify the feasibility of using an unstable green electricity supply for intermittent hydrogen production, storage, and supply through China's first alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system, while also conducting research on the rational configuration of off-grid (micro-grid) green electricity-based hydrogen production devices. Under the condition of meeting the intermittent green hydrogen demand for hydrogen metallurgy at Xuanhua Iron and Steel (with a daily supply of 6 hours and production every other month), data on the medium-to-long-term start-up, shutdown, and operation of the hydrogen production device, as well as control data, will be obtained. Additionally, comparative production data differences between the nitrogen-filled protective intervention in the electrolytic hydrogen production system and continuous operation will be acquired. A data model will be established for comparative analysis to guide the safe production and operation of large-scale hydrogen production projects from wind and PV power in the later stages. This project requires the signing of a procurement contract with Jinglai (Zhangjiakou) New Energy Co., Ltd. Scope: (1) System Supply: Provide one complete set of skid-mounted, multi-container combined 200Nm³/h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system equipment, including but not limited to: one set of 200Nm³/h skid-mounted hydrogen production equipment (comprising one 200Nm³/h electrolyzer, one set of gas-liquid separation device, one set of hydrogen purification device), one set of hydrogen production power supply (mainly including rectifier transformers, rectifiers, pure water coolers for rectifiers, copper busbars), one set of prefabricated box-type substation (mainly including high-voltage switchgear cabinets, power transformers), PLC control cabinets, engineer stations, pure water units, circulating water systems (including circulating water towers, circulating water pumps, circulating water tanks), hydrogen buffer tanks (external), alkali preparation tanks, makeup water pumps, alkali preparation pumps, grid-forming voltage-supporting energy storage system (500kW/1165kWh), fire protection systems, container and production area lighting, video surveillance systems, superior 6kV/0.4kV power distribution sources (mainly including the modification of superior power distribution cabinets, power supply cables), and lightning protection facilities (including lightning rods), etc. Consortium bidding is not accepted for this project.

Tin prices have fallen sharply recently. Looking ahead, on the macro front, the US economy is expected to slow down this year, and the US Fed may extend the period of maintaining the current interest rate level. On the supply and demand front, the continuous implementation of trade-in and equipment renewal policies in China is boosting the demand for non-ferrous metals in the manufacturing and consumer sectors. Myanmar's tin ore accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports and 47% of the total domestic tin ore supply. According to customs data, China's tin ore imports in April 2025 were 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt (metal content)), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY. From January to April, cumulative tin ore imports were 36,700 mt, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98%. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin ore mining in August 2023, China's tin ore imports from Myanmar have remained at a low level due to the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production. The downward trend in import volumes continued in April 2025, primarily due to unstable import profitability and the impact of the situation in Myanmar's Wa region. The tight supply of tin ore has led to a 40% decline in processing fees. The processing fee for tin concentrates in Yunnan Province dropped from 17,000 yuan/mt from May to July 2024 to 12,000 yuan/mt, which is lower than the 13,550 yuan/mt at the end of March 2023 and close to the cost line of some enterprises, leading to production cuts by some enterprises. Currently, processing fees are hovering near the lowest levels in the past six years. The tight supply of tin ore has been transmitted to the refined tin smelting sector. The shortage of ore sources is directly reflected in production data: in the week ending May 23, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 56.44%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous week, with operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi being 65.48% and 41.02%, respectively. In Yunnan, smelters are under sustained profit pressure due to low tin ore imports from Myanmar and depressed processing fees. In Jiangxi, some enterprises are struggling to resume production due to insufficient recycling volume of scrap tin and declining processing fees. In April 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,200 mt, down 0.5% MoM and 8.1% YoY. It is expected that production will increase by approximately 2% MoM in May. In downstream industries, tin solder demand accounts for 68%, with the semiconductor sector accounting for 80% of total tin solder demand. In April 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises was 76.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low in May. Currently, orders from traditional downstream industries have not yet surged, with just-in-time procurement being the main focus, and spot market transactions remain sluggish. However, global semiconductor demand provides long-term support for the tin market. Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% YoY in Q1 2025, and the market size is expected to grow by 11% YoY for the full year, potentially boosting global tin demand by 4.4%. Additionally, the operating rate of primary lead production in the three provinces rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 67.75% last week. Despite the off-season in the battery market limiting further rebounds in the operating rate, production remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic tin market has entered a destocking cycle, but the rate of destocking has slowed. As of the end of last week, SHFE tin inventory stood at 8,445 mt, a decrease of 28 mt from the previous week; LME tin inventory was 2,665 mt, down 70 mt from the prior week. According to SMM data, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions was 10,333 mt on May 27, an increase of 374 mt from the previous week. The tin market is exhibiting a pattern of "constrained supply and promising demand." Conflicts in the DRC and earthquakes in Myanmar have heightened market concerns about the supply side. Coupled with the delay in the production resumptions in Wa State, refined tin production continued to decline YoY. Despite being in the off-season, the growth in demand from the semiconductor industry provides some support to the tin market. From a cost perspective, current prices are approaching the range of the tariff floor and cost floor. SHFE tin below 258,000 yuan/mt presents an opportunity to establish long positions at lows, with a medium-term target above 290,000 yuan/mt and a long-term target above 330,000 yuan/mt. (Source: Futures Daily)

In recent years, zinc prices have fluctuated largely around the supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting. With a significant increase in zinc concentrate supply expected for this year, prices may face downward pressure as we expected at the beginning of this year. This is the second report of two, which reviews Q1 production data from major overseas zinc mines from the Asia, Oceania and the Americas, and provides updated forecasts for full-year output.