"Tin" Leads the Future: Industry Transformation and Value Reshaping in the New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry is at a historic turning point. Traditional cyclical logic has been completely shattered, and strategic value has been fully highlighted. The tin market in 2026 is exhibiting an unprecedented complex pattern and profound transformation: I. Deep Reconstruction of Supply-Demand Pattern, Unprecedented Enhancement of Strategic Attributes The global static reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressure": the repeated delays in production resumptions in Myanmar, persistently tightening policies in Indonesia, and high geopolitical risks in the DRC. Resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure is undergoing a fundamental shift, and tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with the digital future. II. Price System Breaks Historical Records, Industry Ecology Faces Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, reaching a historical high. This price breakthrough not only reflects supply-demand imbalance but also marks a revaluation of the tin industry's value. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods all urgently need innovation and breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Foster a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digitalization and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade towards low-carbon and circular economy, with recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes becoming the inevitable path. All links in the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, on August 19-21, 2026 in Changsha, Hunan held 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will gather global industry elites for joint discussions. Shanghai Jiushi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, discussing industry development trends with peers and jointly promoting the tin industry to new heights. Click to register now and attend the conference, to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and to jointly create a brilliant new chapter! Founded in 2008 with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, Shanghai Jiushi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. is a comprehensive enterprise specializing in non-ferrous metal raw material trading and integrating domestic and international trade resources. For over a decade, the company has deeply cultivated its main business in non-ferrous metals, consistently adhering to a philosophy of steady operation and professional service capabilities, steadily consolidating its brand and market foundation. It has accumulated a solid cooperation foundation and a good market reputation within the industry. The company primarily deals in electrolytic tin ingots, #1 electrolytic lead ingots, silver, nickel plates, zinc ingots, lead concentrates, and other non-ferrous metal products. It has formed a multi-category, full-chain supply chain service system, with a processing capacity of 30,000 mt of alloys, capable of meeting clients' diversified and integrated procurement and processing needs. After years of prudent strategic planning, the company has maintained a steady trade scale with ample supply reserves. Its current annual sales include 15,000 mt of tin ingots, 2,000 mt of silver, 200,000 mt of No.1 primary lead ingots, 300,000 mt of zinc ingots, 20,000 mt in metal content of lead concentrates, and 50,000 mt of nickel plates. Its total trade volume exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2025, demonstrating large-scale, regular, and sustainable stable supply capabilities. The company has always adhered to the business philosophy of "integrity and quality assurance, customer first, mutual benefit and symbiosis, and win-win cooperation," deeply cultivating the upstream and downstream of the industry chain and establishing a mature and stable supply-demand cooperation system. Upstream, it has long connected with large smelters in core production areas such as Yunnan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Inner Mongolia, maintaining long-term stable strategic cooperation to control purity and quality at the source, ensuring sufficient supply and stable quality of tin ingots and various non-ferrous metal raw materials. Downstream, with Shanghai and Guangdong as core hubs, it has built a nationwide sales and service network covering east China, south China, and north China, offering rapid service response and stable, efficient delivery. With tin ingot trade as its core business, the company relies on ample spot reserves, stable source supply, and large-scale supply advantages to precisely connect with various downstream end-users, mainly serving clients in manufacturing fields such as electronics, PV, new energy, alloys, and chemicals. It can continuously and stably supply high-purity tin ingots and supporting non-ferrous metal raw materials according to different customers' production standards and material requirements. With service advantages of precise matching, controllable quality, and timely delivery, it has served a wide range of partners over the long term, accumulating a solid customer base and a strong industry reputation. In terms of operations and management, the company has established a standardized internal management system and a rigorous risk control and compliance system, strictly adhering to compliance bottom lines and tightly controlling operational risks to ensure long-term stable business operations. At the same time, leveraging deep industry expertise and market insights, it continuously optimizes its trade service models, flexibly uses diversified financial and trade financing tools, and customizes suitable cooperation plans based on actual customer needs, achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes for both sellers and buyers under the premise of sound risk control. Looking ahead, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal will continue to uphold the development concept of pragmatism, innovation, and steady progress, continuously optimizing its risk control system and enhancing the professional capabilities of its team. It will further improve the entire industry chain layout of non-ferrous metals, consolidate its core advantages in tin materials, steadily expand downstream markets and emerging application fields, and continuously advance high-quality and stable development. The company will join hands with industry peers and clients to cooperate and create mutual success. Founded in 2008 with a registered capital of RMB 100 million, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal Materials Co., Ltd. is a professional integrated enterprise engaged in non-ferrous metal commodity trading and global supply chain resource integration. With more than ten years of focused cultivation in the non-ferrous metal sector, the company has upheld a conservative operational strategy and premium service norms, steadily strengthened its brand equity and market foothold, and fostered stable cooperative relationships and a prestigious market standing within the industry. The company’s mainstream product lineup comprises electrolytic tin ingots, 1# standard electrolytic lead ingots, fine silver, nickel cathode plates, zinc ingots and lead concentrates, covering a full range of mainstream non-ferrous metal commodities. It has built a one-stop diversified supply chain service system, paired with an annual alloy processing capacity of 30,000 tons, to satisfy clients’ comprehensive customized procurement and processing demands. Supported by long-term strategic market deployment, the company boasts sustainable trading scale and adequate spot inventory. Its annual trading volume stands at 15,000 tons of tin ingots, 2,000 tons of fine silver, 200,000 tons of 1# standard electrolytic lead ingots, 300,000 tons of zinc ingots, 20,000 metal tons of lead concentrates and 50,000 tons of nickel plates. The company’s total trading turnover exceeded RMB 10 billion in 2025, enabling large-scale, standardized and enduring bulk commodity supply capacity. Adhering to the corporate principle of Integrity and Quality Priority, Customer Centricity, Mutual Benefit and Win-Win Partnership, the company has deeply penetrated the upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain and established a mature and stable supply-demand collaboration system. Upstream, it maintains long-term strategic cooperative partnerships with benchmark smelting enterprises in core producing areas including Yunnan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia. Through strict source quality control over product purity and specifications, the company guarantees stable supply and consistent quality uniformity of tin ingots and all non-ferrous metal commodities. Downstream, with Shanghai and Guangdong as core regional hubs, it has established a nationwide sales and after-sales service network covering East, South and North China, featuring rapid response and reliable full-cycle delivery efficiency. Centering on tin ingot bulk trading as its core pillar business, the company serves terminal manufacturing enterprises across electronics, photovoltaic, new energy, alloy manufacturing and fine chemical industries, relying on sufficient spot stock reserves, stable upstream resource channels and large-scale bulk supply advantages. It is capable of supplying high-purity tin ingots and supporting non-ferrous metal materials in a sustained manner in compliance with clients’ customized production criteria and material technical requirements. Driven by precise commodity matching, standardized quality control and on-time delivery assurance, the company has served a large number of long-term strategic partners and accumulated solid customer resources and superior industrial credibility. In corporate governance and operational management, the company has implemented standardized internal management mechanisms and established a rigorous compliance and risk management & control (RMC) system. It strictly abides by industrial specifications and regulatory policies, effectively mitigates operational risks, and ensures the long-term stable and compliant operation of all trading businesses. Drawing on profound industrial experience and forward-looking market insight, the company continuously optimizes its trading service model, flexibly applies diversified trade financing and financial instruments, and develops personalized cooperation solutions tailored to clients’ actual operational needs, realizing sustainable mutual benefit and win-win development for both supply and demand parties under standardized risk control. Looking forward, Shanghai Nine Stone Metal will continue to uphold the development tenet of pragmatism, innovation and steady progression. The company will further iterate and upgrade its risk control system, improve the professional competency of its core team, optimize the full industry chain layout of non-ferrous metal commodities, and consolidate its leading edge in tin material trading. It will steadily expand downstream market coverage and emerging industry application scenarios, promote high-quality and sustainable corporate development, and join hands with industrial peers and global clients to deepen strategic cooperation and create shared industrial value. Contact Information Zhou Long 15821697119 Wang Lin 18616349359 Long press to scan the code for immediate registration 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap Supports ADC12 Prices, Off-Season Caps Gains] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 23,115 yuan/mt, and during the night session, it reached a high of 23,320 yuan/mt and a low of 23,115 yuan/mt, closing at 23,270 yuan/mt.

L&F announced on August 3 that its subsidiary L&F Plus made its first shipment of trial products on July 31 from South Korea’s first LFP cathode materials mass production line. L&F Plus, which is responsible for L&F’s LFP cathode production and sales, completed construction of its dedicated LFP plant in May this year. The plant was built with a total investment of KRW 338 billion on a site of about 100,000 m² in the Daegu National Industrial Complex in Dalseong County.

[SMM Tin Morning Update: Yinman Accident Adds Supply Weight, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintains 427,000 Consolidating at Highs]

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Strong Reality Meets Weak Demand, Wide Fluctuations in the 410,000–430,000 Range]

SMM August 1 News: In the metals market: On the overnight session last Friday, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, with a monthly gain of 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain of 4.63% in July. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc edged up 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract edged up 0.02%. On the overnight session last Friday, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and HRC fell 0.74%. In the coking coal and coke sector, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas market during the overnight session last Friday, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a monthly gain of 3.16% in July. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, with a monthly gain of 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. In the precious metals market during the overnight session last Friday: COMEX gold fell 1.49%, with its weekly chart posting a second consecutive gain, up 0.68% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.49%. COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with its weekly chart declining 1.92% for the week, and its monthly chart posting a second consecutive loss, down 3.58% in July. In the overnight session last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, with its weekly chart posting a second consecutive gain, up 0.55% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.52%. The most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, ending a two-week winning streak but still up 0.98% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.21%. As of 8:16 AM on August 1, closing prices from the overnight session last Friday: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Studying and Implementing General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Key Speech on the H1 Economic Situation and Efforts for H2 Economic Work] The meeting stressed the need to align thinking and understanding with the CPC Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, take more concrete measures to consistently steer the economy toward new, superior, and sounder development, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It called for effectively enhancing the implementation efficiency of macro policies, making full and good use of all existing policies, and promptly devising and rolling out pragmatic and effective incremental policies. It also emphasized the need to effectively expand domestic demand, launch a set of robust measures in sectors with great potential and strong driving force, accelerate the execution of major projects designated in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and solidly advance the planning and construction of the “Six-Network” infrastructure. Efforts must be continuously made to strengthen internal drivers of development, and more concrete and effective measures should be introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. We must persistently guard against and defuse risks in key areas, do a solid job in disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, as well as work safety, strengthen support for people in difficulty, and secure the bottom line of people’s livelihood. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Visits Selected Automobile Producers for Supervision and Inspection] To further regulate competition order in the automotive industry and enhance production conformity and quality and safety levels of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted supervision and inspection on vehicle product safety assurance capabilities and production conformity at Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. from the 30th to the 31st. It is learned that going forward, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will, together with relevant departments, further carry out actions to improve production conformity and quality of road motor vehicle products, strengthen entry review and testing verification management for “aggressive” innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle producers to thoroughly identify product safety risks and hazards, strengthen product testing, verification, and safety assessment, standardize marketing and promotional practices, uphold product safety bottom lines, and effectively protect consumers’ lawful rights and interests. (Xinhua News Agency) [CSRC Approves Registration of Coke Options] Recently, the CSRC approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make all preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the dollar index declined by 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the dollar index declined by 1.37% for the month. According to a New York Times report, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings of the Federal Reserve, a move that could cause huge shockwaves and would mark the most significant change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed’s 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed adjustments to the meeting frequency at this week’s Fed meeting. According to the people, at this week’s meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it is required to hold each year and a timetable for such adjustments. According to sources, Walsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting agenda during this week’s session. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Walsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, arguing for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said Walsh’s press conference performance was "weaker than expectations," and she expects the US Fed’s "hawkish pivot" to materialize in September, when three consecutive rate hikes could be delivered. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience in US economic activity was offset by Walsh’s failure to translate his hawkish inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk of the Fed falling behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a September rate hike, a pullback from 82% a week ago. (Wall Street Insight) Three Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflationary pressures, signaling rising internal pressure on Fed Chairman Walsh to act. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they are concerned that, while the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation picture now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, stating that even if inflation has cooled somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the Fed’s 2% target without a rate increase; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to exceed the target until an unexpected shock hits. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes—not just a single move—to prevent it from becoming further entrenched. "A series of smaller policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for developments and ultimately having to take more forceful action," he said. Hammack said the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate if the Fed does not tighten policy. "Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will fall back to our target on its own," she said. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said it is an "open question" whether the US Fed has set interest rates at a level sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation, adding that he is unsure whether he would have voted in favor, like the three other regional Fed presidents who dissented in favor of a hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said: 'I think there is a strong case for tightening policy and taking back some of last year's rate cuts.' He noted that given the slowdown in June inflation data, 'I think one could also argue... there is time before the next meeting to judge whether the current policy stance is appropriate.' Barkin will not vote on interest rate decisions until next year. Additionally, Barkin was sceptical that the labour market has significantly strengthened. He said, 'It doesn't feel like the labour market is very tight.' He also pointed out that price increases are not transmitting evenly through the economy, making it difficult to gauge how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, and China July PPI YoY. In addition, attention this week should also be paid to: SpaceX will report its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech. Crude Oil: Both oil futures surged in the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. For the week, WTI futures fell 2.81%, while Brent futures slipped 0.7%. For the month, WTI futures soared 24.89% and Brent futures jumped 24.8%. A decline in ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil shipments. Uncertainty persists over when Middle Eastern crude oil supply will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June had completely broken down by early July. From mid to late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy trade choke point, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries destroyed around 30% to 45% of Russia’s operational refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/bbl and driving global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wall Street CN) Data released by the international shipping information platform “MarineTraffic” on July 31 showed that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on the 30th fell to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. The platform’s data indicated that all 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the lane on the Iranian side. (Jin10 Data App) According to CBS News, citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning to carry out “one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date” against Iran’s energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. Iranian media reported on August 1, citing an Iranian official, that Iran considers a US-Israeli attack on its infrastructure to be a “reckless act” and has developed a comprehensive plan to respond to “any possible reckless actions by the US.” (Jin10 Data App) According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the Yemeni Houthi group said that in implementing a “blockade for blockade” strategy, after imposing maritime restrictions on Saudi oil tankers, it had forced 8 Saudi tankers to change course and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. (Jin10 Data App) Additionally, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that for the week ended July 28, speculative net long positions in Brent crude fell by 6,948 contracts to 185,083 contracts. Speculative net long positions in diesel rose by 2,654 contracts to 87,194 contracts. (Jin10 Data App) Recommended Reads:

Recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to accelerate the study and formulation of the Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand (2026-2030). Moving forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to effectively expand China's domestic demand with greater intensity and more concrete measures.

SMM News, August 3: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,895/mt, drifted lower and then stabilized in Asian trading hours; during European trading hours, it briefly touched a high of $1,899/mt before weakening, and near the close, dipped to a low of $1,875.5/mt, finally settling at $1,880.5/mt, down 0.69%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,550 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 15,565 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before drifting lower, and near the close, dipped to a low of 15,360 yuan/mt, finally settling at the low of 15,360 yuan/mt, down 1.22%. In August, lead consumption expectations showed no signs of improvement, with downstream enterprises cautious in procurement, and lead ingot inventory accumulation dragged lead prices into a subdued consolidation. However, increased maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters, along with supply tightening expectations, pushed lead spot discounts to narrow and provided strong support for lead prices.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,895/mt, drifting lower then stabilizing in the Asian session; entering the European session, it briefly touched a high of $1,899/mt before weakening, dipping to a low of $1,875.5/mt in late trading, and finally closed at $1,880.5/mt, down 0.69%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,550 yuan/mt, lightly touched a high of 15,565 yuan/mt at the start before drifting lower, dipped to 15,360 yuan/mt in late trading, and finally settled at the low of 15,360 yuan/mt, down 1.22%. On the macro front: South Korea's KOSPI index rallied nearly 18% last Friday, posting its largest single-day gain on record, with a monthly decline of 22% ranking as the third-largest in history. Foreign investors net purchased 7.2 trillion won worth of KOSPI shares last Friday, hitting an all-time high. On the first day of tighter regulations on leveraged ETFs in South Korea, trading volume plummeted 75%. South Korea's July exports surged to the second-highest level on record, and semiconductor exports soared nearly 180% YoY. The US Fed: ① Fed Chairman Walsh considered reducing the frequency of annual meetings. ② Several Fed officials voiced support for interest rate hikes, intensifying hawkish pressure internally. China's manufacturing PMI for July was 49.2%, with manufacturing production showing good resilience. The People's Bank of China held a work conference for H2 2026, continuing to implement moderately accommodative monetary policy. July sales performance from new energy vehicle startups was released, with BYD sales exceeding 410,000 units to reach a new high, and Leap Motor surpassing the 100,000-unit mark. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 15,600-15,630 yuan/mt, at premiums of 50-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2609 contract. The center of SHFE lead shifted lower again, with suppliers reducing shipments and limited quotes from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotes from primary lead smelters showed north-south divergence, with suppliers in the northern market actively quoting and selling, while those in the southern market held back from selling at low prices, offering few quotes, and mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In secondary lead, smelters had many shutdowns, with some secondary lead smelters holding prices firm to sell, and secondary refined lead quotes were at premiums of 20-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with individual quotes at a premium of 125 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises remained mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement, with wait-and-see sentiment rising, and spot market trading was thin. Inventory side: On July 31, LME lead inventory decreased by 4,575 mt to 441,275 mt; as of July 30, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions reached 68,500 mt, up 6,100 mt from July 23, and up less than 100 mt from July 27. Lead price forecast today: In August, lead consumption is expected to show no improvement, with downstream enterprises cautious in procurement and lead ingot inventory accumulating, dragging lead prices to consolidate on a subdued note. Meanwhile, increased maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters, along with expectations of supply tightening, drove the narrowing of spot discounts for lead, providing strong support for lead prices.

In July 2026, the copper scrap market operated amid a backdrop where the most-traded SHFE copper contract shot up from 102,000 yuan/mt to above 106,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain exceeding 3,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the combined effect of copper cathode’s sustained one-way rise and copper scrap’s resistance to declines and holding prices firm, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened from around 2,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to over 4,000 yuan/mt at month-end, briefly reaching as high as 4,800 yuan/mt mid-month. The inherent resistance of copper scrap to price declines was the defining supply-side characteristic throughout the month. Under the dual constraints of ongoing compliance on reversed invoicing and a deepening high-temperature off-season, the market displayed a starkly polarized landscape: structurally tight supply, vigorous arbitrage-driven procurement downstream, and even weaker physical consumption in the off-season. Although the rise in copper prices and the widening of the price difference stimulated downstream purchase willingness, procurement was dominated by the hedging logic of “buying raw materials and shorting futures,” resulting in extremely limited restocking volumes for actual production. Supply side, the copper scrap market extended the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026, with the underlying constraint remaining the reverse invoicing policy. From July 1, the new "three-stream-in-one reverse invoicing" policy was officially enforced, but regulatory scrutiny intensified in Jiangxi, Hubei, and other regions. In Jiangxi, production came to a halt after quotas were exhausted; in Hubei, retroactive investigations under the reverse invoicing policy sparked enterprise concerns; and in Shuyang, Jiangsu, invoicing quotas remained restricted, keeping compliant and deductible copper scrap that was available in the market persistently tight. After Document No. 770 cleared local illegal tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and mid-sized copper scrap traders reliant on subsidies continued to exit the market, significantly shrinking overall available supply compared to the same period in previous years. Mainstream copper scrap invoice tax rates exceeded 11%, rising to 12% in certain regions, further driving up enterprises' raw material procurement costs. On the import side, China's cumulative copper scrap imports from January to June stood at 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY. Although smelting capacity expansions for secondary copper in the US and Europe siphoned off high-grade supply, domestic scrap utilization enterprises, influenced by policy factors, were willing to pay higher premiums to secure overseas secondary copper raw materials. Even with elevated discount rates on overseas secondary copper raw materials, imports of such materials showed little sign of a near-term pullback. However, downstream orders were mediocre due to the traditional consumption off-season, placing some pressure on further import growth. Additionally, June was a period of concentrated maintenance for some smelters, leading to divergent demand for different grades of secondary copper raw materials. Owing to bare bright copper's strong substitution for copper cathode, its procurement demand remained relatively stable, with transaction coefficients staying high. In contrast, No.1 copper and No.2 copper were largely affected by smelter maintenance and a phased slowdown in raw material demand, resulting in slight declines in their transaction coefficients. Overall copper prices consolidated with an upward bias in July, but trade remained sluggish amid relatively weak downstream consumption. The discount of bare bright copper to copper cathode widened from about 500 yuan/mt at the start of the month to roughly 900 yuan/mt. Despite subdued end-use demand, prices of tax-inclusive secondary copper raw materials stayed at relatively high levels against a backdrop of persistently tight domestic invoice supply and limited availability of duty-paid material. From the demand side, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened to over 3,800 yuan/mt, making the economic benefits of copper scrap evident, and the purchase willingness of secondary copper rod enterprises was notably robust. However, the robust purchase willingness was mainly directed at futures arbitrage rather than physical restocking: during the period when copper prices shot up, secondary copper rod enterprises generally adopted the hedging strategy of "buying copper scrap while shorting futures" to purchase copper scrap. However, these arbitrage-driven purchases did not fully translate into actual production restocking, and the operating rate of secondary copper rod enterprises only edged up from 17.38% at the beginning of the month to 18.29% at month-end. On the smelting side, anode plate producers using copper scrap, constrained by the "reverse invoicing" policy, were forced to purchase large quantities of imported copper scrap to ensure delivery of long-term contracts. However, the growth in imported copper scrap was limited and could not fully meet the demand from downstream processing and smelting, causing some anode plate producers to shut down part of their capacity, and the delivery volume under long-term contracts is expected to decline. The implementation standards of the "reverse invoicing" policy vary by region. Some secondary copper rod enterprises faced insufficient input invoices due to "reverse invoicing" issues, unable to issue sufficient output invoices to downstream end-users, resulting in some payments being temporarily withheld by 13%-15%. Meanwhile, downstream clients of anode plate producers using copper scrap are mostly state-owned enterprises, which must ensure the safety and compliance of output invoices. The safest approach is to purchase imported copper scrap that inherently includes 13% VAT, thereby avoiding the risk of input invoices being reversed due to non-compliant "reverse invoicing." Against the backdrop of the "reverse invoicing" policy and the "rectification of the invoicing economy," the invoice costs for tax-inclusive copper scrap in the market have risen sharply, causing the tax-inclusive price difference between primary metal and scrap to deviate from actual market conditions. Looking ahead to August, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap can stabilize above 4,000 yuan/mt, the implementation criteria for reverse invoicing are further clarified, and credit limits in some regions are marginally relaxed, it may drive the release of some rigid demand. Otherwise, under the combination of low copper cathode inventory, high premiums, and downstream reluctance to buy at high prices, the copper scrap market will continue to maintain a weak equilibrium pattern of "suppliers selling and rod enterprises buying for hedging when copper prices rise, and both sides waiting and seeing when copper prices are high." The genuine recovery of physical consumption still awaits a copper price correction or a substantial improvement in end-user orders.