Aluminum associations from the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan highlighted OECD data showing that global aluminum-sector subsidies totaled USD118.3 billion during 2005-2024, with China accounting for USD101.4 billion, or 86% of the total. In 2024 alone, China received USD10.2 billion of the sector’s USD11.1 billion global subsidies. Industry groups noted that China’s share of global primary aluminum output has risen from 11% to 61% over the past two decades, with subsidy-supported growth extending into downstream processing and recycling. The associations called for coordinated measures, including import monitoring systems, tariff alignment and potential scrap export restrictions, to strengthen supply-chain security and support fair competition.

SMM News, May 29: According to SMM statistics, domestic primary aluminum output in May 2026 (31 days) rose 2.1% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month. Although the recovery of domestic end-user demand has been relatively slow, the persistent widening of the primary aluminum supply gap overseas has strongly boosted export demand for domestic aluminum products. This has effectively underpinned domestic molten aluminum consumption and kept apparent consumption in positive growth territory. The proportion of molten aluminum in domestic production edged up moderately, rising by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 76.5% in the month. The overall performance was slightly better than expectations at the start of the month, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected export orders. Based on SMM’s calculation of molten aluminum proportion, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in May fell 1.2% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Capacity Changes : As of late May, SMM recorded domestic operational primary aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million metric tons, with no month-on-month change. Output Forecast : In June 2026, buoyed by improving overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep recovering, supporting a slight rebound in the molten aluminum proportion. Overall, the molten aluminum proportion is projected to increase by 0.1 percentage point to 76.6%.

SMM News, May 29: According to SMM statistics, the total output of primary aluminum overseas in May 2026 fell year-on-year by 9.9%, mainly due to large-scale production cuts at aluminum smelters in the Middle East. The average daily overseas output edged up 0.4% month-on-month, supported by production resumptions at smelters in the US, Spain and Iceland, as well as ramping-up output from new projects in Indonesia. As revealed in the Q4 and full-year financial report of Vedanta Aluminium for Fiscal Year 2026, Balco Aluminium Plant has launched the first production run on India’s most advanced 525kA primary aluminum production lines. The plant’s total production capacity has expanded to 1 million metric tons, and the project is expected to enter a steady output ramping phase. Looking ahead to June 2026, production resumptions at aluminum smelters in the US and Iceland will continue. Driven by high price levels, new primary aluminum projects in Indonesia will accelerate construction, and some are expected to commence power connection and commissioning gradually. The expanded capacity at Balco in India will keep ramping up. Overall, overseas primary aluminum output will remain in year-on-year decline in the short term, while the average daily output will maintain month-on-month growth amid ongoing production resumptions and capacity ramping of new projects. Market participants shall keep a close eye on official announcements from aluminum producers across the Middle East, Indonesia and India.

Data from Industrious Labs showed that US 50% tariffs on primary aluminum have significantly reduced imports, with shipments from Canada falling 25% YoY and not fully replaced by other suppliers. Total available primary aluminum in the US, including domestic production and imports, has dropped to its lowest level since tariffs were introduced in 2018, even below pandemic lows. Meanwhile, US primary aluminum output has remained around 0.7–1.0 million tones since 2017, while demand could rise by as much as 40% over the next decade. Markets believe supply risks from the Middle East, high electricity costs and long smelter expansion timelines will keep the US aluminum market tight in the near term.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, the total primary aluminum output overseas in April 2026 fell 10.2% year-on-year, while the average daily overseas output dropped 10.0% month-on-month, mainly as the impact of production cuts at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters became more evident. During the period, despite accelerated production resumptions at overseas primary aluminum smelters amid high prices, the overall incremental volume was far lower than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in overseas primary aluminum output in April. Per Alcoa’s Q1 earnings report, the company announced on April 8, 2026 that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain had been safely completed. According to Vedanta’s production report, its primary aluminum output in the 2026 fiscal year (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) hit a record high of 2.456 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, mainly driven by improved operational efficiency. As per an official announcement from Century Aluminum, idle capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has commenced restarting, with the first batch of primary aluminum production underway. It is expected that the resumed capacity will reach full operational status by the end of June, involving a total capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. In addition, the second production line at its primary aluminum smelter in Iceland has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. Staff are energizing the first batch of electrolytic cells for the second line and will accelerate the restart of remaining cells, targeting a near-full production level by the end of July. Looking ahead to May 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, together with the ramp-up of new capacity in Indonesia, are expected to push average daily output higher month-on-month, though year-on-year output is projected to remain in sharp negative growth. Overall, given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, overseas primary aluminum output is expected to stay in sustained year-on-year negative growth in the short term. Market participants shall continue to monitor subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East as well as global aluminum inventory trends.

[Conflict Impact] The outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026, significantly disrupted global aluminum market dynamics, driving increased volatility in aluminum prices. Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged alongside escalating tensions, rising from an Official Price of $3,156.5/mt on February 27 to a peak of $3,519.5/mt in early March. Prices later retreated to the $3,200–3,300/mt range in late March, as market sentiment gradually stabilized. On March 28, in response to attacks on Iranian industrial zones, Iran reportedly targeted major regional aluminum producers including Aluminum Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum, while Qatar Aluminum declared force majeure. These developments constrained primary aluminum output in the Middle East, tightening market liquidity and increasing supply uncertainty. As a result of supply disruptions, global aluminum availability declined, particularly impacting regions outside China in Asia. Entering April, LME aluminum prices rebounded to $3,400–3,500/mt, breaking above $3,600/mt in mid-April and fluctuating within the $3,500–3,600/mt range. [Shipping Disruptions] The conflict initially disrupted transportation systems across the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz being most severely affected. Key aluminum exporters—including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Kuwait—faced significant logistical constraints. Exports that traditionally passed through the Strait were heavily restricted, forcing market participants to adopt alternative logistics routes, including land transport to Red Sea ports. These adjustments significantly increased freight costs and extended delivery lead times. In April, the escalation of conflict into the Red Sea region further limited alternative shipping routes. Most Europe–Asia vessels opted to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, driving both freight costs and transit times higher. According to SMM market research, cargo delivery delays reached 3–5 weeks, while container freight costs surged by as much as 60–70%. [Primary Aluminum and Processing] Reduced Middle Eastern exports tightened primary aluminum supply across major Asian consuming countries, particularly Japan, Thailand, India, and South Korea. In 2024, the Middle East exported 6.408 million mt of primary aluminum and key aluminum products, with these four countries accounting for approximately 20.8% (1.331 million mt). In 2025, exports declined to 6.071 million mt, with imports from these countries totaling approximately 1.215 million mt (~20%). Demand for primary aluminum alloys and billets (notably 6xxx series) remained strong. SMM data shows that following the outbreak of conflict, processing fees for 6063 billets in Southeast Asia rose from $200–250/mt to $250–300/mt, peaking at $300–310/mt. Market feedback indicates a recovery in demand for 6xxx billets, with both domestic and export transactions in Malaysia and Thailand increasing significantly in April. Downstream purchasing sentiment improved, offsetting weaker market conditions observed in January–February. Demand for primary foundry alloys also strengthened. Elevated aluminum prices, reduced Middle Eastern supply, and growth in downstream sectors such as automotive (particularly in Thailand) drove increased enquiries for alloys including A356, AlSi10MnMg, and AlSi10FeMg. Notably, interest in low-carbon aluminum has also increased, reflecting rising alignment with international decarbonization policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Against a backdrop of tightening primary supply, importing semi-finished aluminum products from alternative regions may become an increasingly viable option. [Secondary Aluminum] Beyond primary production, the Middle East has also been a significant supplier of aluminum scrap and secondary alloys, serving as an emerging recycling and processing hub prior to the conflict. India and South Korea are key importers of Middle Eastern scrap. In 2024, the region exported 628,000 mt of aluminum scrap, with India and South Korea accounting for 62.6% and 13.5%, respectively. In 2025, total exports rose to 766,000 mt, with imports reaching 489,000 mt (India) and 101,000 mt (South Korea). Amid the conflict, buyers from Japan and South Korea diversified sourcing toward Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, boosting demand for ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy. This shift supported both Southeast Asian FOB prices and Japan CIF prices. In April, continued conflict escalation drove additional demand from India, with SMM data indicating several thousand tonnes of incremental enquiries and transactions in Southeast Asia. SMM began tracking ADC12 FOB prices in Thailand and Malaysia in March 2026. Prices rose from $3,000/mt on March 2 to $3,365/mt by April 27, marking an increase of $365/mt. Market activity remained robust, with strong exports to Japan, South Korea, and India, alongside steady shipments to China, Singapore, and other regions. Some producers have reportedly secured orders through late June to July. On the raw materials side, rising LME aluminum prices pushed both imported and domestic scrap prices higher. In Thailand, aluminum cable scrap reached THB 115,000–120,000/mt ($3,560–3,710/mt) in April, significantly increasing blending costs for billet producers. As scrap prices climbed, some billet producers reduced scrap usage and increased reliance on primary aluminum. Meanwhile, higher prices for Tense scrap led to reduced trading volumes, prompting ADC12 producers to substitute alternative scrap types, including higher-copper materials, to optimize cost structures. Reduced scrap supply from the Middle East also intensified competition, particularly as India increased procurement from alternative markets, tightening supply and driving prices higher in Southeast Asia. [Outlook] The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped aluminum trade flows across Asia and globally, increasing pressure on Southeast Asia’s aluminum processing sector. If the conflict persists, global aluminum trade is likely to become more regionalized, with tighter raw material availability in Asia and stronger internal circulation in Western markets. China may emerge as a key balancing supplier, as widening domestic-international price spreads could open export arbitrage opportunities for semi-finished aluminum products and secondary alloys. However, Southeast Asia may face mounting pressure from raw material shortages and intensified competition, particularly from India. At the same time, tightening low-carbon policies and Western supply chain reshoring may further challenge regional competitiveness. Conversely, a de-escalation of the conflict and normalization of logistics routes could ease supply constraints, potentially placing downward pressure on aluminum product and secondary alloy prices, gradually returning the market toward pre-conflict conditions. [Notes] The “18 Middle Eastern countries” referenced in this report include: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain Levant region: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine Other key regional countries: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, Libya, Yemen Primary aluminium and related key aluminium products include the following HS codes: 7601 – Unwrought aluminium 7604 – Aluminium bars, rods and profiles 7605 – Aluminium wire 7606 – Aluminium plates, sheets and strip, thickness > 0.2 mm 7607 – Aluminium foil 7608 – Aluminium tubes and pipes

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Century Aluminum has restarted the second potline at its Norðurál smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland, ahead of schedule, with full capacity expected by end-July. The potline accounts for about two-thirds of total capacity, with operations resuming after transformer repairs following an unexpected failure. Permanent replacements are set for installation in autumn. The restart strengthens Century’s primary aluminum output, alongside recent expansion at Mt. Holly, to meet market demand.

Rusal's financial report showed that, affected by its capacity optimization plan, full-year 2025 primary aluminum production fell 1.9% YoY to 3.918 million mt (2024: 3.992 million mt). Alumina production, meanwhile, rose 6.7% YoY to 6.858 million mt. In addition, benefiting from the Guinea expansion project and increased equity interests in refineries in China and India, bauxite production increased 16.2% YoY to 18.453 million mt.

Foreign news reported on May 22 that according to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday, global primary aluminum production in April increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 5.628 million mt.