[SMM Analysis: Glimmer of Hope amid Weak Supply and Demand: Review of China's Aluminum Billets Market in H1 2026 and Outlook for H2] In H1 2026, China’s aluminum billets market, squeezed by wild swings in aluminum prices and a slow recovery in end-use demand, underwent a turbulent journey from deep pressure to staged repair...

Since late April, aluminum billet processing fees in China's three major consumption regions staged a strong rebound, with South China taking the lead. Processing fees of φ120 aluminum billets (Guangdong) hit a Q2 low of -40 yuan/mt on April 16, then surged rapidly, approaching the 500 yuan/mt mark by month-end in May, and reaching a new yearly high of 490 yuan/mt on May 28. SMM believed there were three main reasons...

[SMM Analysis: February Operating Rate of Primary Aluminum Billets Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low, Expected to Recover to Peak-Season Levels Seen in the Same Period in Previous Years in March] According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of aluminum billets in February fell sharply by 9.2 percentage points MoM to 41.4%, down 7.7 percentage points YoY. After aluminum prices surged to a record high at the end of January, they saw a sharp correction ....

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

Key Points: Over the next five years, China's aluminum billet market is expected to exhibit a pattern of "dual growth in supply and demand but continued surplus, optimized capacity structure, and intensified demand differentiation," as the industry shifts from scale expansion to quality improvement...

[SMM Analysis: Year-End Aluminum Billet Production Data Released, Will Production Cuts Be Unavoidable as Off-Season Deepens?] Mixed trends coexisted! Domestic aluminum billet supply-side operating rates remained generally stable in November, with final production figures meeting expectations. As the September-October peak season concluded, some aluminum billet enterprises planned ahead to switch production to aluminum bus bars, primary alloys, aluminum rods, and other products. Meanwhile, some group enterprises, affected by poor overall annual profitability, implemented marginal production cut adjustments in November, showing signs of supply contraction during the off-season. However, due to the better-than-expected performance of aluminum billet processing fees, particularly in South China, some billet plants in South-West China increased production accordingly. Coupled with the ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity in Q4, the domestic aluminum billet supply side achieved a temporary stable transition amid these mixed trends. The daily average production of primary aluminum billets in November pulled back slightly to around 50,000 mt/day, down MoM from October, in line with earlier expectations. However, SMM expects that as the off-season deepens in December and high aluminum prices further suppress processing fees and downstream demand...

Processing Fees for Aluminum Billets in Southern China Approach Yearly High—Coincidence or Inevitability? [SMM Analysis] As of November 28, the processing fees of φ120 aluminum billets in South China (centered on Foshan) were quoted at 390 yuan/mt, while those of φ90 aluminum billets were quoted at 440 yuan/mt, having accumulated an increase of over 200 yuan/mt from the monthly low and approaching the annual highs of 470 and 520 yuan/mt in 2025. Although there were fluctuations in Wuxi and Nanchang, the fees also showed significant recovery from the mid-month lows. The strong performance in late November appeared to be a short-term pulse driven by the pullback in aluminum prices and concentrated restocking, but in reality, it was an inevitable outcome under the seasonal pattern of the aluminum billet market in November—short-term price pullbacks as accidental factors only acted as a "catalyst," while the core support was...

[SMM Analysis: Domestic Primary Aluminum Billet Production Expansion Pace Continues in October, but Expectations of a Retreat from Highs Exist in November] High but unsustainable! Although the pace of domestic primary aluminum billet production expansion continued in October, as the transition between peak and off-seasons occurs, weakening downstream orders are gradually transmitting upstream, leading to expectations of a pullback in the aluminum billet operating rate from highs in November.....

Preliminary Data on China's Aluminum Billet Production in August Released! Have All Provinces Fully Resumed Production? [SMM Analysis] The storm gradually subsided! The final scale of primary aluminum billets production cuts in July was lower than expected, with a smooth resumption pace in August. Three main reasons contributed to this: (1) Aluminum prices hovered at highs during the off-season, and the adaptability of the industry chain to high aluminum prices strengthened; (2) Aluminum smelters adopted a clear stance, leaving limited room for aluminum billet producers to halt or cut production; (3) After the production cut turmoil, the center of processing fees slightly rose, easing financial pressure on aluminum billet enterprises....

[SMM Analysis: Domestic aluminum billet production cuts statistics released! Will the forecasted production for July plummet?] The wave of aluminum billet production cuts has intensified, evolving from marginal cuts in early June to large-scale production cuts in multiple regions by late June and early July. The scale of aluminum billet production cuts continued to expand slightly in mid-July, and it was not until late July that some billet plants chose to resume production. In the past two months, the proportion of domestic liquid aluminum has encountered significant obstacles in its upward trend. The daily average production of domestic primary aluminum billets in June remained flat compared to May at around 49,000 mt/day, but it is expected that this figure will plummet in July to...