Markets frequently mistake an industry's sudden breakout for its origin. China's long-duration energy storage (LDES, ≥4 hours) sector did not abruptly emerge in 2026. Following policy incubation (2023-2024) and initial scaling (2025), 2026 marks a definitive inflection point, driven by a validated, closed-loop business model and exponential growth in grid-connected capacity.

Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia clarified that the pricing of non-subsidized fuels, such as high-octane RON 95 and 98 used by industries and upper-income groups, fluctuates according to global market trends as outlined in the 2022 ESDM regulations. Addressing rumors of a 10% price increase for non-subsidized fuels starting April 1, 2026, Bahlil emphasized that these adjustments follow market mechanisms and do not burden state finances or require official public announcements. Meanwhile, he assured that any decisions regarding subsidized fuels remain under the direct authority of President Prabowo Subianto, who continues to prioritize public purchasing power and social conditions.

In 2026, the European Critical Raw Materials Centre (ECRMC) will be officially launched. This initiative is one of the solutions to accelerate the development of an independent supply chain, preventing the situation of “a single country supplying more than 65% of demand”. The center will have three main functions: monitoring and assessing the raw materials demand of member countries, conducting joint procurement on behalf of members, and stockpiling and delivering inventory when necessary. ECRMC, as some have commented as a “Tinder for metals,” will work with stakeholders to design a minimum pricing mechanism and framework. The first joint purchasing activity will begin in March 2026 through a platform that connects suppliers and purchasers.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

SMM March 11 News: According to official sources from Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd., the company plans to sell 33 tons of crude selenium. The pricing mechanism will be based on bidding for the premium/discount. The minimum premium is set at 10,500 RMB/ton. This project requires three registered participants to proceed with the bidding. The registration deadline is 5:00 PM on March 16, 2026, and the bidding is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM on March 17, 2026. Given the recent positive trading conditions for crude selenium tenders, with relatively high transaction prices, market insiders anticipate that the outcome of this premium bidding will be worth watching.

Silver is having one of its most extraordinary years in modern market history.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.

[SMM Analysis] Pre-holiday lithium ore market stabilized with a wait-and-see sentiment; post-holiday supply-demand tug-of-war intertwines with macroeconomic factors.

"The market has gone absolutely crazy." That's the shared sentiment among many executives at magnetic material and motor plants. As of February 9, 2026, the price of praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal has reached 975,000 - 985,000 yuan per ton, marking a single-day surge of 7%. This represents a 9.4% increase compared to last week​ and a staggering over 88% jump compared to the same period last year​

According to Electric Union New Media, the proposal for the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, reviewed and adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, explicitly states the need to "focus on institutional and mechanism obstacles hindering high-quality development" and "accelerate the improvement of markets and pricing mechanisms adapted to the new-type energy system."