High ore costs, tight spot availability and weak stainless demand pin China's benchmark NPI index inside a RMB 7/nickel-point range in July, before an Indonesian policy jolt lifts it to a monthly high of RMB 1,129.5.

India, though the world’s second-largest primary aluminum producer with an annual capacity exceeding 4.16 million mt, sees its roughly 3,500 downstream micro, small, and medium aluminum processing enterprises (MSMEs) trapped in a structural cost disadvantage caused by the import parity pricing mechanism for primary aluminum. This mechanism anchors domestic primary aluminum prices to an international benchmark plus tariffs, forcing downstream enterprises to pay import-equivalent prices even when purchasing locally produced metal. Yet these MSMEs support about 90% of employment in the aluminum value chain and supply critical materials to strategic sectors such as power transmission and transformation, renewable energy, railways, and EVs, while operating at margins of only about 5% and an operating rate of about 65%—a stark contrast to the nearly 98% operating rate and about 10% margins in the primary aluminum sector.

On August 4, the stock price of JCHX fell. As of 10:38 am on August 4, JCHX dropped 0.54% to 71.17 yuan per share. In terms of news, the monthly investor relations activity summary (July 2026) announced by JCHX on August 3 shows: 1. Project Progress of the San Matias Copper-Gold-Silver Mine in Colombia The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver Mine has received formal approval from Colombia's National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA). As of now, the technical, environmental, and social impact assessment process involving local communities, authorities, and government technical agencies has been satisfactorily completed. In the subsequent development and construction of the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver Mine, the company will fully implement the social and economic protection requirements of the environmental permit, always adhering to the core principles of human rights protection, risk prevention, and collective well-being. By establishing a long-term communication and sharing mechanism, it will ensure that project operations coexist harmoniously with local communities for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. According to the feasibility study (FS) for the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver deposit completed in December 2023 (adopting the NI 43-101 standard), the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver mine project is an open-pit mining and processing project, with an estimated investment of $420.4 million and a designed ore volume of 97.9 million tons within the pit limit. The construction period is 2 years, and the mine life is expected to be 14.2 years after completion. The project is expected to cumulatively recover 797 million pounds of copper, 550,000 ounces of gold, and 5.35 million ounces of silver. 2. Technological Transformation of the Lubambe Copper Mine Project Since completing the acquisition of the Lubambe Copper Mine in Zambia in H2 2024, the company has continuously strengthened its operation and management, while advancing geological exploration, mining production, beneficiation production, and the renovation of underground auxiliary systems. As the technological transformation plan is gradually implemented, the operational efficiency of the Lubambe Copper Mine will be continuously improved. 3. Remaining Recoverable Reserves and Seasonality of the Dikulushi Mine The company currently holds two mining rights (PE606 and PE13085) in the Katanga Province of southeastern DRC through its subsidiaries Jinjing Mining and Yuanjing Mining, with a mining right area of 68.77 square kilometers. The Dikulushi Copper Mine, which commenced production in December 2021, is part of the PE606 mining right. As of the end of December 2025, the Dikulushi Copper Mine has retained ore reserves of approximately 430,000 tons, with an average copper grade of 7.58%. Since the commencement of production at the Dikulushi Copper Mine, the company has continuously extended the mine's life cycle through simultaneous production and exploration, with significant results: the 2021 annual report disclosed a remaining mining life of 3.58 years, while the 2025 annual report disclosed a remaining mining life of 2.98 years. In the future, this approach of simultaneous production and exploration will continue. The production and sales of the Dikulushi Copper Mine take into account the local rainy season from November to April, and sales are not evenly distributed throughout the year. Generally, the rainy season affects the condition of peripheral roads around the mining area, thereby impacting product transportation, so sales are relatively lower during the rainy season. 4. Expansion and Construction of the Eastern Zone of the Lonshi Copper Mine According to the "Feasibility Study on the Eastern Zone Mining and Processing Project of the Lonshi Copper Mine in DRC" released by the company in January 2025, the eastern zone will adopt underground mining, with a designed annual mining scale of 2.5-3.5 million tons and a planned infrastructure period of 4.5 years. It will reach full production in the 4th year after commissioning, with a total service life of 12 years. To balance the service cycles of the eastern and western zones, the western zone will undergo year-by-year production cuts after the eastern zone commissions, with a combined maximum annual ore output of 4.5 million tons from underground mining in both zones. After the eastern zone reaches full production, the combined annual copper metal production of the eastern and western zones of the Lonshi Copper Mine will be approximately 100,000 tons. 5. Pricing Model of Mining Services Business The pricing model for mining services is cost-plus, based on the mine's resource endowment, technical difficulty of mining, etc., using industry-standard operational efficiency and operating costs as references for pricing. Generally, it is not linked to mineral resource product prices. 6. Listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange To further advance the company's global strategic layout, build an international capital operation platform, broaden diversified financing channels through international capital markets, further enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness and continuously increase its international influence, and strengthen its core competitiveness, the company is planning to issue overseas-listed shares (H shares) and list on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. The company is actively discussing the relevant work for this H-share issuance and listing. The specific details have not yet been determined. Once the specific plan is finalized, the H-share issuance and listing still need to be submitted to the company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting for deliberation, and require filing, approval, and/or clearance from relevant government and regulatory bodies such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. There is significant uncertainty as to whether the H-share issuance and listing can pass the deliberation, filing, and review procedures and ultimately be implemented. 7. Development Potential of Mining Services Business Adopting a target market strategy focused on "large markets, large owners, large projects," the company, on the one hand, consistently implements the philosophy of providing value-added services to mine owners with leading technology, gaining their recognition through high-quality mine construction services, and subsequently undertaking later mining operation and management business. On the other hand, by enhancing mine design and technology R&D, it has initially formed an integrated comprehensive business model encompassing mine construction, mining operation management, and mine design and technology R&D. This model can more effectively meet the needs of owners for mine construction and mining operations, better achieve a rapid and stable transition from infrastructure to production, shorten construction cycles, achieve rapid commissioning and full production, and save infrastructure investment for mine owners. At the same time, the development space for the company's mining services business will become broader. In the future, the growth of the mining services business will mainly come from two directions: first, newly undertaken external projects; second, incremental expansion of existing projects — large mines typically have multiple ore bodies, and their development is often carried out in stages. Specifically, when the first phase progresses to a certain stage, construction of the second phase will commence. During this process, owners will actively seek high-quality service providers. 8. Construction Progress of the Northern Mining Zone of the Phosphate Ore Mine The Liangchahe Phosphate Ore Northern Mining Zone has a production scale of 500,000 t/a and is currently under construction, aiming to be completed and put into production by the end of 2028. 9. View on the Trend of Copper Prices Looking at the current and upcoming period, the copper market faces a pronounced "tight balance" pattern. Supply side, production release is strictly limited by the dual constraints of declining average copper ore grades globally and insufficient long-term capital expenditure, and disruption risks at the mine end are intensifying. Demand side, the global energy transition (new energy sector) and infrastructure construction in emerging markets provide sustained and resilient demand support. Against this backdrop, copper prices are expected to drift higher over the medium and long term. 10. Future Development Strategy of the Company On the basis of maintaining stable development of its existing mine development business, the company relies on its accumulated advantages in technology, management, and industry to actively expand into the resource development sector, gradually exploring a development path of "mining services + resources." Driven by the dual engines of "mining services" and "resource development," it promotes the comprehensive transformation from a single mining services enterprise to a group-oriented mining company. 11. Competitive Advantages of the Company in the Industry With its deep expertise accumulated in mine construction and mining operation management, the company extends along the mining industry chain into areas such as mine resource development, design and R&D, and equipment manufacturing, steadily enhancing its integrated service and control capabilities for mining services. It can feed back experiences gained during construction and problems identified through the shortest channels and at the lowest cost to the development consulting and design phases, and incorporate the company's latest scientific research achievements into its design business to optimize design plans, enabling scientific and technological innovations to rapidly transform into productive forces applied in the resource development sector. This can better shorten the construction cycle of resource development, reduce unit production costs, and increase the safety margin in market competition for mineral products. Through the advantages of integrated operations, it improves resource project development efficiency, extends project life, and maximizes the economic value of resource projects. 12. Are There Plans for Further Mine Acquisitions? From a long-term strategic perspective, the company focuses on resource projects that match its scale and have value investment potential. Currently, the company already owns five mine resource projects, and therefore prefers to achieve reserve growth through exploration work on existing projects, viewing this as a more economical way to acquire resources. At the same time, leveraging its advantages in mine construction and operation, the company will also explore expanding its business through equity participation plus operation. In terms of performance, JCHX's Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 28 showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 3.414 billion yuan, up 21.45% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 601 million yuan, up 42.55% YoY. For the increase in Q1 operating revenue and net profit, JCHX's announcement stated that it was mainly due to increased sales of mineral resource products (copper cathode, copper concentrates, iron ore) and rising copper product prices during the period. JCHX's 2025 annual report disclosed that the company's 2025 revenue was 13.894 billion yuan, up 39.74% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.339 billion yuan, up 47.66% YoY. JCHX stated in its 2025 annual report that the 39.74% increase in operating revenue and the 47.66% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders year-on-year were mainly due to the ramp-up and efficiency improvement of its captive mine projects in the mine resource development business during the reporting period. A research report from China Post Securities commenting on JCHX's performance shows that the resource segment experienced volume growth, while the mining services business was a slight drag. By business segment, in 2025, the mine resource business achieved revenue/gross profit of 6.986/3.121 billion yuan, up 117.67%/130.20% YoY, and the mining services business achieved combined revenue/gross profit of 6.613/1.515 billion yuan, up 1.06%/-13.47% YoY. The mine business saw both volume and price increases, while the decline in mining services was mainly due to the Lubambe Copper Mine being converted into an internal unit after acquisition, reducing recognized revenue and gross profit, and some projects being affected by declining operational volume/production ramp-up. Volume: In 2025, copper metal sales were 92,700 tons, up 88.16% YoY, and phosphate ore sales were 357,400 tons, down 1.00% YoY. The increase in copper metal production and sales was mainly due to the Lonshi Copper Mine reaching full production and releasing output, with Dikulushi and Lonshi Copper Mines exceeding production plans, and the Lubambe Copper Mine being consolidated for the full year. In Q1 2026, copper metal production and sales were 22,400/18,100 tons respectively, mainly affected by grade decline and the rainy season. Price: In 2025, copper prices rose 7.62% YoY, and in Q1 2026, they rose 36.72% YoY. Production in 2026 is expected to grow steadily, with huge expansion potential in the long term. In 2026, the company's captive resource projects plan to produce 100,300 tons of copper metal (equivalent) and sell 99,700 tons of copper metal (equivalent), and produce and sell 300,000 tons of phosphate ore; the Istanex Mountain magnetite project plans to produce and sell 1.25 million tons of iron ore concentrates. In the long term, the northern mining zone of the Liangchahe Phosphate Ore Mine is expected to be put into use by the end of 2028, with annual capacity expanding from 300,000 tons to 800,000 tons; the eastern zone of the Lonshi Copper Mine, after commissioning, can expand annual production from 40,000 tons to 100,000 tons; the Lubambe Copper Mine is under technological transformation, and after completion, it is expected to produce 35,000 tons of copper per year; the company's equity stake in the San Matias Copper-Gold-Silver Mine has reached 97.5%, and it is in the EIA approval stage. Risk warning: price fluctuation risk; project progress falling short of expectations risk; downstream demand falling short of expectations risk; model assumptions not aligning with reality; policy exceeding expectations risk, etc.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Call: Raw Material Prices Diverge, Industry Demand Maintains Structural Support] This week, industry chain prices showed divergence. Lithium ore, lithium chemicals, nickel chemicals and cobalt products were overall under pressure. Downstream procurement remained focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and essential restocking, and the market still held expectations of increasing supply and price declines in the long term. Cathode material side, ternary system prices pulled back along with raw material costs, while LFP and iron phosphate strengthened slightly, supported by order growth and cost support. Anode and separator markets held stable overall, and electrolyte moved up, driven by rising additive and solvent prices. Demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles and markets outside China maintained good performance, supporting continued growth in the industry's production schedules, but recovery on the consumption side remained relatively slow.

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

At the beginning of this week, the overall industry chain was relatively weak, with the price center of electrolytic metals, intermediates, and salts continuing to decline. During the traditional off-season, downstream purchasing was mainly small-scale, just-in-need buying. Cost support from virgin materials remained, but recycled materials, low-priced older stocks, and re-dissolution routes persistently depressed market psychological price levels, intensifying price negotiation divergences between upstream and downstream. The ternary cathode precursor and ternary cathode material markets weakened simultaneously due to falling raw material prices. August orders showed steady growth, but consumer-side demand had yet to recover significantly. The supply-demand balance for LCO remained weak, and short-term prices were expected to remain stable.

Recently, the biomass gasification technology seminar and "Donghua Furnace" on-site observation meeting was held in Jarud Banner, Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia. Jiang Hai, Vice President of the New Energy Research Institute of China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, stated at the meeting that as carbon pricing mechanisms gradually improve, related technology maturity rises, and the raw material collection and supply system accelerates its establishment, the green methanol industry is expected to enter a large-scale development stage from 2028 to 2030. Jiang Hai pointed out that green methanol is both an important fuel for decarbonization in the shipping sector and a key carrier connecting renewable energy with deep industrial emission reduction. The global green methanol market is accelerating its expansion, with market size expected to grow from about $2 billion in 2025 to about $40 billion by 2035. As the International Maritime Organization's shipping carbon tax is progressively implemented and the replacement of chemical raw materials accelerates, market demand will continue to expand. China's green methanol industry already has a solid foundation for large-scale development. Data show that in 2025, China's existing capacity reached 380,000 mt, accounting for about 42% of the global total, ranking among the top globally. However, the industry is still in the transition from early commercialization to large-scale development. Although market demand has emerged, project economics have not yet been fully realized. At this stage, the industry is characterized by "high planning, low implementation." Production costs remain high, products are notably homogeneous, a stable profit model has not yet formed, project validation is challenging, and capital payback periods are relatively long. Meanwhile, the industry faces issues such as insufficient validation of large-scale core equipment and the need for process stability testing. Technology adaptation risks in engineering construction may cause project delays or cost overruns. Imperfect industry standards, certification systems, and carbon trading mechanisms also make it difficult to fully convert the green premium into actual corporate earnings, and insufficient market-side driving force further dampens investment confidence. In response to these issues, Jiang Hai proposed building a trinity guarantee system of "policy guidance, standard regulation, and market drive," and promoting industry breakthroughs from four dimensions: raw material supply, industry chain coordination, business models, and end-use applications. On the raw material side, a collaboration mechanism led by the government, driven by enterprises, and involving farmer participation should be established. The collection, transportation, and supply network for agricultural and forestry waste should be improved, standardization of raw material grading and localized large-scale supply should be promoted, and the impact of raw material dispersion and cost fluctuations on industry development should be reduced. On the industry chain side, integrated technology innovation should be strengthened, promoting full-process coupling and optimization of "gasification, purification, and synthesis." Focus on cultivating solution providers with capabilities in system design, equipment integration, and EPC contracting. Use modular design to reduce engineering risks and enhance technology adaptability and production stability. In terms of business models, a composite profit path combining "product revenue, carbon trading premium, and green consumption" can be explored. Fully leverage the environmental value and energy attributes of projects, improve project economics through multiple revenue streams, and enhance the industry's ability to attract capital and withstand market fluctuations. On the application side, accelerate the construction of a consumption system covering diverse scenarios, and promote the adoption of green methanol in areas such as marine clean fuel, heavy-duty truck power substitution, and MTO chemical raw materials. At the same time, build an integrated regional network of "production sites, logistics distribution, and fueling stations" to form stable market absorption channels and provide support for large-scale industry development.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: ISM 55.6 Strengthens September Rate Hike, Intensifying Tug-of-War in SHFE Tin Prices at High Levels]

Stable market leadership, faster N-type adoption, and resilient Ex-China demand lift global PV module shipments to approximately 260 GW in the first half of 2026.

Rio Tinto-operated Bell Bay Aluminum has been excluded from Australia's AUD 2 billion Green Aluminum Production Credit scheme, increasing pressure on the smelter to secure a long-term power agreement before the end of the year. Bell Bay is Australia's only predominantly renewable-powered primary aluminum smelter, with an annual production capacity of 187,000 tonnes. The facility accounts for around 25% of Tasmania's electricity consumption and exports more than 90% of its aluminum production to Asian markets. Without competitive power pricing and government support, the smelter faces uncertainty over its operations beyond 2026.