The market quotation for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is in the range of 880,000 - 890,000 yuan/tonne, representing an increase of approximately 35,000 yuan/tonne compared to pre-holiday levels, a rise exceeding 4.12%. This marks a staggering 98% increase year-on-year. The quotation for praseodymium-neodymium metal stands at 1.07 - 1.08 million yuan/tonne, up by 50,000 yuan/tonne (4.88%) from pre-holiday prices, also reflecting a 95% year-on-year increase.

Looking ahead to March, production is expected to rebound as operations resume and the traditional demand recovery period begins. However, due to sluggish auto sales, weak overseas demand for ternary materials, and persistently high raw material prices, the pace of recovery may fall short of pre-holiday expectations.

The fundamental challenge in the 304 stainless steel industrial chain is Instrument Asymmetry, a scenario where the dominant cost driver, Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), lacks a direct futures contract and forces participants to manage 75% of their risk using standardized proxies like pure nickel. This creates a lethal threat not from price volatility itself, but from the Basis Risk that occurs when physical assets and hedging tools decouple.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors such as US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with silver prices showing a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the close on February 23, London spot silver settled at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% from the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. Due to the drag from pre-holiday US stock declines and weakening liquidity, overseas precious metals continued their decline at the beginning of last week, with silver and platinum once falling below the 60-day moving average and gold losing the 20-day moving average. Subsequently, as the US announced that the Q4 GDP growth rate fell short of expectations, precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. After the US Supreme Court ruled to revoke most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on globally imported goods to the US within the next 150 days, market concerns over trade conflicts and economic downturn were reignited. Coupled with the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations potentially worsening the Middle East situation, which stimulated safe-haven demand, precious metals surged significantly during the session and recovered previous losses, with silver leading the gains. During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, refined silver supply from copper, lead, and zinc smelters mainly maintained stable production, while large-scale downstream enterprises such as silver nitrate and alloy manufacturers generally suspended operations for the holiday. Except for a few small and medium-sized silver-based material, jewelry, and some industrial users processing urgent orders normally, downstream consumption temporarily stalled due to holiday factors and the high silver price and premium market conditions. Although multiple smelters mentioned accumulated in-factory inventory after the holiday, compared to previous years, the destocking speed for the accumulated inventory after the 2026 holiday was faster. Some manufacturers transferred in-factory inventory to social warehouses on the first day after the holiday and prepared for delivery or sold directly at market premiums. Smelter in-factory inventory levels are expected to gradually decrease to safe levels. Looking ahead this week, although import tariffs on investment-grade gold and silver are exempted, the policy's impact on US dollar assets and its boost to precious metal allocation demand will both benefit gold and silver prices. The market will further price in the impact of Trump's tariffs. In the spot market, physical investment demand for precious metals may again see stockpiling and rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Some downstream enterprises expect to purchase physical goods from the exchange after the delivery of the SHFE February contract ends, thus cautiously watching the high premium quotes for circulating supplies after the holiday. Additionally, it is worth noting that the significant volatility in silver prices in early 2026 and the hedging liquidity pressure brought by the exchange's raised margins have prompted intermediate silver-containing material processing manufacturers to weigh between maintaining customer relationships with orders at breakeven or even small losses and halting production to stop losses. Although downstream enterprises resumed normal operations after the holiday, most industrial enterprises basically did not take new orders during the holiday. Post-holiday orders for silver nitrate and electronic/electrical intermediate processing products are expected to be average. Spot transactions are mainly driven by investment demand, with jewelry and investment silver bar processing recovering quickly. Industrial consumption end-users currently have low acceptance of the significantly increased prices and post-holiday spot premiums, thus placing orders relatively cautiously. After the holiday, the precious metals market is partially hot but overall sluggish. Besides macro disturbances and geopolitical changes, subsequent attention should still be paid to premium changes after the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract and whether low inventory in overseas COMEX will again cause price anomalies.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas tungsten prices surged past China. By Feb 20, Rotterdam APT averaged $1,800/mtu, up 13.56% WoW, while European scrap drill bits jumped 12.5% to €90/kg. Indian scrap followed, with alloy blade FOB hitting $110-115/kg. Post-holiday, domestic APT opened at ¥1.05 million/mt, with a major producer hiking long-term prices by ¥100,000/mt. Global supply tightness continues to drive synchronized upside across markets.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Tin Market Post-Holiday Outlook Supply-Demand Imbalance and Price Gameplay Amid Fluctuations at Highs]

Following the Spring Festival holiday, SMM research indicates that some raw material manufacturers have quoted prices in the range of 27,000-28,000, with a reluctance to sell. Meanwhile, metal-side manufacturers intend to adjust prices but have shown low willingness to purchase raw materials at high prices, due to the impact of downstream market sentiment. The downstream metal market has seen active inquiries but sluggish actual transactions. Major metal manufacturers have refrained from adjusting prices temporarily after the holiday, partly because some manufacturers have not yet resumed operations. Additionally, amid relatively high raw material prices, some manufacturers have increased their proportion of scrap procurement. Although downstream buyers are willing to enter the market, they remain on the sidelines waiting for price declines and have not yet made actual purchases. In terms of market sentiment, a strong wait-and-see attitude prevails, and some metal manufacturers are caught in a dilemma. On one hand, these manufacturers are reluctant to sell and have no intention of large-volume shipments, leading to their willingness to raise prices. However, they face multiple concerns: excessive price hikes would trigger a corresponding increase in ammonium rhenate raw material prices, pushing up their subsequent procurement costs; maintaining current prices, on the other hand, would squeeze profit margins due to rising raw material costs. On the other hand, the current rhenium price environment has already resulted in a downstream market characterized by active inquiries but weak transactions, and excessive price increases would likely further dampen downstream procurement willingness. This dilemma in price adjustment decisions has further underpinned the overall stability of the current rhenium market.

[SMM Analysis] Pre-holiday lithium ore market stabilized with a wait-and-see sentiment; post-holiday supply-demand tug-of-war intertwines with macroeconomic factors.

February 13, 2026: Today, warrant prices were $45-51/mt, QP March, with the average price rising by $20/mt compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-56/mt, QP March, with the average price rising by $14/mt compared to the previous trading day; ER copper (CIF B/L) was $15-25/mt, QP March, with the average price rising by $4/mt compared to the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late February and early March. At the beginning of the new year, the import window opened in the morning session, and suppliers raised their offers. A small amount of pyrometallurgy B/L for late February arrival was heard closed at $55-60/mt, QP March; ER B/L offers for late February and early March were $25-30/mt, QP March, while ER B/L for mid-to-late March arrival was offered at $30/mt, QP April. Warrant prices rose significantly, with pyrometallurgy and two-brand B/L offered at $60-65/mt, QP March-April.

[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: post-holiday aluminum price rebound, alloy enterprises still feel the holiday vibe] after the chinese new year holiday, the secondary aluminum alloy market will gradually shift from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand, stable prices" to a phase of resuming production and recovering demand. since the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer than last year, most enterprises resumed operations between the eighth and fifteenth day of the first lunar month. the pace of supply release in the first week after the holiday is expected to be slow, providing some support to prices; however, the recovery on the demand side is likely to be more gradual, with downstream purchases remaining cautious and need-based until terminal orders show a significant increase. the cost side requires continuous attention to fluctuations in the prices of aluminum scrap, copper, silicon, and other auxiliary materials, as the trend of primary aluminum remains a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. overall, in the early post-holiday period, the adc12 price is likely to continue the sideways movement pattern seen before the holiday. the subsequent direction will depend on the match between supply and demand after full production resumptions and the performance of primary aluminum prices. if there is a restocking phase combined with a strong run of primary aluminum, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure but will generally remain in a sideways movement.