Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 11:32 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s 26% decline during the Iran conflict came from a boost to the dollar, yields and equities which overwhelmed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal, but persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and central bank demand remain intact, and gold prices will still reach nearly $4,800 in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, according to Barclays. In a research note published Monday, the UK banking giant’s cross-asset research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis said gold’s three-month selloff was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar, white-hot equity markets absorbing all the available risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions, with Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales also contributing to the weakness. The analysts said gold’s slide from its January peak to its June trough reflected a normalization of real interest rates, markets pricing out Fed rate cuts this year, and the short-term appeal of rising stocks detracting from gold’s investment appeal. The Barclays team calculated that the rise in the dollar index and the 10% S&P 500 rally accounted for 10% of the gold price decline, with the remainder coming from position unwinding in the metals markets. The analysts said these factors are temporary, however, and that gold’s structural drivers — persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and continued reserve diversification — are still intact, and they will reassert themselves as the geopolitical stress related to the Hormuz crisis dissipates. They characterized these drivers as “slow-moving variables whose influence accumulates over time,” which is why they were ill-suited to support gold prices during the short-term shock of the Iranian crisis. Barclays calculated that every percentage-point increase in inflation gives gold a 5% uplift, and they believe the inflationary impulse of the Iran energy shock will be supportive. The bank estimates gold’s fair value price currently sits at $4,150 per ounce, and they expect a rebound now that the Iran conflict appears to be winding down. The Barclays team said they now anticipate a reassertion of the dollar’s downward trend, a return to consistent central bank buying and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices. Barclays said they are maintaining their 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts at $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce, but warned that there may still be some short-term mark-to-market downside. The analysts also recommended exposure to gold mining stocks, including Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. “Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now,” they said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/barclays-sees-gold-hitting-4791-2026-4900-2027-iran-correction-fades

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

At 4:15 PM on June 8, 2026, a ladle explosion at the SMS-1 steelmaking shop of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) — operated by Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) — unleashed molten metal at over 1,500°C onto the working platform below Caster-2. According to a preliminary report by India's Chief Inspector of Factories, the cause was a sudden release of gas entrapped within the liquid steel, which ruptured the ladle seal before the sliding gate was opened, triggering a catastrophic spill.

Fri, May 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+8 JPMorgan has reduced its gold price forecasts for 2026, pointing to softer short-term demand conditions, although the bank continues to hold a bullish longer-term outlook and still expects gold to climb toward $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year. The bank lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708, citing weaker investor participation and subdued market positioning in the near term. According to JPMorgan, gold is currently trading within a narrow technical range between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures market activity and ETF inflows remain relatively muted. “Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, adding that concerns over the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate increases in response to energy-driven inflation are limiting investor confidence in the short term. Despite the downgrade to its forecasts, JPMorgan stressed that it views the recent weakness as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental change in trend. The bank said its constructive long-term thesis — based on fiscal risks, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.” One of the key developments JPMorgan is monitoring is a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank’s oil analysts expect could occur in June. Analysts believe such a development would ease inflation-related risks and begin reversing recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, potentially triggering a recovery in gold prices toward technical resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce. The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return to the market, supporting a rebound in demand during the second half of the year. JPMorgan reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after officially reported net buying dropped to just 16 tonnes during the first quarter amid increased selling activity. However, including unreported purchases, total central bank buying still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, based on estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The bank additionally cut its forecast for ETF inflows to around 400 tonnes for the full year from an earlier projection of 580 tonnes, although it noted that global ETF holdings remain up by 108 tonnes since the start of the year. Analysts said the largest risk to their outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. labour market conditions and rising inflation force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold-backed ETFs. Source： https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/goldman-maintains-bullish-gold-outlook-141040865.html

May 17, 2026 HSBC has increased its silver price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, although the bank continues to expect limited upside for the precious metal over the medium term. HSBC now projects silver will average $75 per troy ounce in 2026 and $68 per ounce in 2027, compared with previous forecasts of $68.25 and $57, respectively. Silver Rally Fueled by Safe-Haven Demand and Tight Supply Silver surged to a record nominal high of $121 per ounce in late January, supported by soaring gold prices, constrained supply conditions and strong safe-haven demand linked to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions. The metal later pulled back sharply to around $64 per ounce in early February following a conflict-driven rise in the U.S. dollar and weakness in gold prices, before recovering to trade above $86 per ounce. HSBC Sees Smaller Supply Deficits Ahead Despite raising its price outlook, HSBC maintained a cautious stance, arguing that shrinking supply deficits and softer industrial and jewellery demand are likely to prevent sustained gains. The bank expects the global silver market deficit to narrow to 73 million ounces in 2026 from 143 million ounces in 2025, before tightening further to 25 million ounces in 2027 as mine production and recycling supply increase. “Moderating deficits, in our view, will not be sufficient to propel silver sharply higher for prolonged periods,” said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC. The bank expects prices to weaken during the second half of both 2026 and 2027. Industrial and Jewellery Demand Expected to Ease Industrial demand, which accounts for more than half of global silver consumption, declined to 657 million ounces in 2025 from a record 679 million ounces the previous year. HSBC said manufacturers have increasingly sought to reduce or substitute silver usage in response to elevated prices, and the bank expects that trend to continue. The bank forecasts industrial silver demand will decline further to 642 million ounces in 2026 and 618 million ounces in 2027. Jewellery demand is also projected to fall to 157 million ounces this year from 189 million ounces in 2025. Supply Growth Seen Supporting Market Rebalancing On the supply side, HSBC expects mine production to remain broadly unchanged at 848 million ounces in 2026 before rising to 868 million ounces in 2027. Recycling supply is forecast to increase to 216 million ounces this year from 197 million ounces in 2025. Dollar Weakness and Geopolitics Could Offer Support James Steel said expectations for a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could continue to provide some support for silver prices. However, he cautioned that “the gold:silver ratio is likely to widen, allowing silver to ease even if gold rallies.” HSBC set year-end silver price targets of $70 per ounce for 2026 and $65 per ounce for 2027. Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/hsbc-raises-silver-forecasts-for-2026-and-2027-but-warns-upside-may-be-limited

Published：May 13, 2026 The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty. Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium. Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year. Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz. Silver exploded to $116/oz. Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz. In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025. Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices. The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains. Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues: 1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran , which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis. In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems. 2. Inflationary Energy Shock March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration . Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors. The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation . 3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction. Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets . Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle. 4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025 . The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , but it remains far from ideal levels. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation . In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify. Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals. Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide . It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth. Source： https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/

[SMM Steel] EU carbon allowance (EUA Dec-2026) prices remained at €74-77/t in early May, similar to late-April levels, with April average prices at €74.04/t, up 5.7% from March. The market was influenced by Middle East tensions, energy price volatility, and EU ETS policy revisions. The European Commission proposed updated EU ETS benchmarks for 2026-2030, with free allowances expected to cover around 75% of industrial emissions and potentially save industries €4 billion in carbon costs. Reuters surveys also showed analysts lowering 2026 carbon price forecasts to €80.61/t from €92.65/t previously.

SMM May 8 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals showed mixed performance across domestic and overseas markets. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.1% rise, SHFE tin rose 0.76%, LME aluminum fell 1.34%, LME tin fell 1.25%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina most-traded contract fell 0.03%, while the foundry aluminum most-traded contract rose 0.02%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 0.97% to lead the declines, iron ore temporarily settled flat at 815 yuan/mt, and rebar rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal up 0.46% and coke down 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.04% and COMEX silver rose 2.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.12% and SHFE silver rose 2.49%. PBOC: China's gold reserves stood at 74.64 million ounces (approximately 2,321.56 mt) at the end of April, up 260,000 ounces (approximately 8.09 mt) MoM from 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 mt) at the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of gold accumulation. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:43 AM on May 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Domestic tourism during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 325 million trips, up 3.6% YoY] During the Labour Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 325 million trips nationwide, up 3.6% YoY; total domestic tourism spending was 185.492 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [MOFCOM spokesperson answered reporters' questions on the EU's ban on funding projects using Chinese inverters] According to media reports, EU officials stated that the EU will ban funding for projects using inverters from China and other "high-risk countries." When asked for China's comment, the MOFCOM spokesperson said China has noted the relevant reports. Without any actual evidence, the EU for the first time designated China as a so-called "high-risk country" and used this as a pretext to ban funding for projects using Chinese inverters. This constitutes stigmatization of China and imposes unfair and discriminatory treatment on Chinese products. China rejects and firmly opposes this. China urges the EU to immediately stop stigmatizing China by labeling it a "high-risk country" and to revoke the unfair and discriminatory practices against Chinese products. China will closely monitor and carefully assess the impact of EU policies on the interests of Chinese enterprises and China-EU industrial and supply chains, and will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (MOFCOM) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.28. New York Fed President Williams said on Thursday that demand for US Treasuries remained strong despite the government's massive borrowing. Williams said the US Fed was watching the government's extremely high borrowing levels "very closely." He noted that while it may be surprising, demand for US Treasuries remained "enormous," and "the US is still seen as the strongest economy in the world" and an ideal safe haven for capital, "even with all the geopolitical issues and other factors, that hasn't changed." Williams also said the US economy had shown considerable resilience amid the energy shock triggered by the Middle East war. He said that given surging energy prices, "the biggest question" was how the situation would evolve, adding that regarding inflation that continued to stay high, the US Fed would "make sure" and commit to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. (Jin10 Data APP) San Francisco Fed President Daly downplayed the divergence in the US Fed's statement, suggesting she would not dissent like some of her colleagues. She said the wording of the statement was less important than actions, and the real signal from the meeting was the unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to language hinting at future interest rate cuts, arguing that the energy shock and uncertainty from the Iran war made a signal that "rates could go up or down" more appropriate. Daly, who does not have a vote this year, said the public understood the US Fed's price stability mandate. Daly said there were no signs yet that energy prices were pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "It's too early to tell. If the conflict ends and oil prices pull back without transmitting to the broader economy, the fundamental dynamics from before the conflict are expected to return." She was committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but should not overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She said policy was "slightly restrictive," and if the war were resolved, it would pose downward pressure on inflation; the labour market was stable and not generating inflationary pressure. (Jin10 Data APP) [US Fed's Kashkari: Next interest rate move uncertain due to Iran conflict] Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict had added uncertainty to the interest rate outlook. "Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, I actually don't know what's going to happen," Kashkari said at an event in Marquette, Michigan. "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, the next interest rate move could very well need to be upward." (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include: US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May preliminary one-year inflation expectations, US May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, US March wholesale sales MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Switzerland April consumer confidence index, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, and Canada April employment figures. In addition, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will open. 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech; US Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech; and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak on global imbalances. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 2.71% and Brent up 2.13%. Citi's global head of commodities research Max Layton said oil prices would continue to swing wildly until there was clarity on whether Iran and Trump could reach a deal. "It's hard to predict whether Iran will reach a deal, and in an environment where you simply don't know whether a deal will be reached, the market is inevitably news-driven and will experience wild swings." Crude oil fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday. Layton said the decline was partly driven by "the market's hope that the two sides could begin deal negotiations." However, physical crude oil market pressures in the Middle East persisted. Traders said that a key crude oil loading terminal in Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, experienced loading delays in April, disrupting shipping plans and potentially delaying deliveries to buyers. Layton said the global physical crude oil market had accumulated "quite substantial buffer inventory" of approximately 700 million to 800 million barrels over the past 12 months. "We are burning through this inventory rapidly," he said, but the impact would "manifest gradually over a longer period." He added that before actually lowering oil price forecasts, he needed to see whether Iran was ready to seriously reach a deal with the US. Last month, after the second round of US-Iran peace talks failed to take place, Citi raised its Brent crude benchmark price forecast by $15 to $110/barrel and pushed back its baseline expectation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. (Jin10 Data APP) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency was prepared to release more crude oil from its strategic reserves if war-induced supply disruptions persisted. He added that the agency had so far released 20% of its available oil reserves to ease rising prices. Releasing additional crude oil onto the international market would limit demand for US crude at all levels. Demand side, Marathon's refinery in Carson, California reported that it planned to conduct flaring activities from May 8 to May 12 due to maintenance work. (Wallstreetcn)

Silver price forecasts across key horizons have been sharply cut by UBS, driven by subdued investment demand, weaker industrial usage, and climbing mine production.

SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►