This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

According to market reports, European stainless mills are facing mounting cost pressure from both geopolitics and raw materials. Concerns linked to the US-Iran conflict are adding uncertainty to energy and input costs, while 304 scrap has climbed to €1,400/t delivered across most EU countries this month. The continued rise in costs is becoming a key support factor for higher stainless steel prices in Europe.

This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

According to SMM, from April 10 to April 16, 2026, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises across five provinces was 69.66%, up 2.38 percentage points WoW. With the impact of the Qingming Festival holiday dissipating, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production this week. However, as the end-use market was in the traditional consumption off-season, battery orders at some enterprises weakened, and they once again lowered their production line operating rates. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead-acid batteries recovered somewhat this week but remained difficult to restore to pre-holiday levels. Currently, battery markets for e-bikes, automobiles, and other sectors are all in the off-season, with dealers purchasing cautiously. To ease inventory pressure, most producers adopted a produce-based-on-sales approach and scaled back production plans. If orders continue to remain sluggish going forward, some enterprises will consider further production cuts.

According to Counterpoint, memory prices surged significantly in H2 2025, bringing notable cost pressure to the global smartphone industry and particularly impacting the low-end market. Sales of smartphones priced below $150 declined 11% YoY in H2 2025. As OEM shipments of low and mid-end models were highly dependent on ODM/IDH, this cost-driven market downturn inevitably transmitted to the ODM-IDH sector. According to Counterpoint Research data, shipments of smartphones designed by ODM/IDH enterprises fell sharply by 10% YoY in H2 2025, ending two consecutive years of growth.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Weak Demand Drove Prices Down, Chrome Market Clearly Under Pressure] April 17, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market showed no fluctuations for the time being...

According to Reuters, trade sources said that Indian banks had suspended orders for importing gold and silver from suppliers outside China, with large quantities of precious metals stuck at customs , as the government had yet to issue a formal order authorizing the import of these precious metals. As India is the world's second-largest gold consumer and the largest silver buyer, with nearly all of its demand relying on ex-China purchases, the country could face a supply deficit without new imports. Weak Indian demand could weigh on global gold and silver prices , while narrowing the country's trade deficit and supporting the rupee. The rupee has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies so far this year. Authorities had taken several measures to ease pressure on the rupee, including recently urging refiners to limit their spot dollar purchases. The suspension of gold and silver import orders by Indian banks from overseas suppliers, as well as the backlog of large quantities of precious metals at customs due to the lack of a formal government authorization order, had not been previously reported. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, typically issues an order at the beginning of each fiscal year listing the banks authorized by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold and silver. The order previously issued in April 2025 was valid until the end of the last fiscal year (March 31), and banks were currently awaiting a new directive from the DGFT. The DGFT did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. A bullion dealer at a private bank in Mumbai said that banks had expected the DGFT to issue the order in early April as in previous years, but no new announcement had been made so far, resulting in more than 5 mt of gold stuck and unable to clear customs . The dealer said the uncertainty over the timing of the DGFT order had led banks to suspend new import orders from overseas suppliers. The dealer requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. Sources said that approximately 8 mt of imported silver was also stuck and unable to clear customs . Another bullion dealer said there was no point in placing new orders when previous shipments could not clear customs. According to data from the World Gold Council, India's gold demand fell to 710.9 mt in 2025, the lowest level in five years. Sources said that gold and silver inventory imported in previous months was being depleted, and the market was now relying on sales from exchange-traded funds, which were facing redemptions. Mehta Surendra, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said: "Clear rules are needed to ensure imports resume." Mehta stated that without imports, a supply deficit would emerge, and premiums would rise after Akshaya Tritiya, India's second-largest gold-buying festival. A bullion dealer in Kolkata said that as the Iran conflict drove up prices of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, India's import bill in April could rise, which might prompt the government to slow down gold and silver imports to control the trade deficit.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] This week (4.10-4.16), the operating rate of the brass billet industry was recorded at 53.68%, down 1.03 percentage points WoW. Copper prices fluctuated at highs, market trading was subdued, and new orders weakened; recycled brass raw materials remained tight, raw material inventories fell to 4.31 days, and finished product inventories rose to 5.42 days. The operating rate is expected to continue declining by 0.32 percentage points WoW to 53.36% next week (4.17-4.23).

On April 16 (Thursday), a document showed that Codelco and global miner Anglo American plan to separately submit environmental study reports to regulators for their proposed shared Andina-Los Bronces copper mine in Chile, using what they called an "unprecedented" dual-track model to streamline the approval process. The document showed that the two companies plan to submit two essentially identical applications in December for a copper mine to be jointly operated by both parties. Chile is currently the world's largest copper-producing country. Against the backdrop of an anticipated tightening in global copper supply, this model could serve as a blueprint for other major miners looking to share infrastructure and operations to boost production. The model would also allow Codelco and Anglo American to move faster and reduce risks. Codelco and Anglo American finalised this cooperation agreement in September 2025, planning to increase annual copper production by approximately 120,000 mt from 2030 to 2051, creating at least $5 billion in pre-tax value. ***"Mirror" Applications*** In areas where operations will overlap, the two companies proposed adopting identical environmental protection measures for each miner. A presentation document showed that they considered a single application submission legally unfeasible, as the Chilean constitution requires Codelco to retain ownership of its mining concessions. The two companies had also considered submitting three applications: one from each miner to extend the life of their respective mines, and a third from a joint entity responsible for operating the shared project. They ruled out this option, as it would require the enterprises to relinquish their existing open-pit mine environmental protection permits to make way for the merged mine. This "dual-track structure" also makes it possible for the two mines to resume independent operations in the future. ***On-Site Operations*** The documents detailed the plan to create a single mine site from the existing operations. Anglo American's Los Bronces mine is adjacent to Codelco's Andina mine. The two companies' plans showed that the rock barrier between them will also be mined, forming a single operating pit while keeping the project essentially within the existing footprint of the mines. A document showed that ore extracted from the shared mine site will be alternately sent to the Los Bronces and Andina processing plants, while waste rock will be dumped in each company's respective waste rock piles. To operate the two mines as an integrated system, modifications to waste rock piles, tailings facilities, pipelines, and supporting infrastructure are still required. The two companies stated that shared infrastructure can avoid redundant construction, reduce freshwater consumption, and alleviate pressure on the surrounding environment. ***Risks of a "Shared" Mine*** The two companies also identified significant risks, such as the need for close coordination with regulators, which could put pressure on Chile's already slow environmental review system. They emphasised that the project has "a very high level of public attention" and that there is a risk that environmentalists and affected communities may argue that the two reviews obscure the scale of the impacts. The Los Bronces mine has been accused for years of impacting air quality, water use, and glaciers in the high Andes region where it is located. Although Codelco and Anglo American believe the dual-track approach can reduce the risk of impacts being underestimated, they also acknowledged that it could lead to duplication of environmental protection management measures. (Wenhua Consolidated)