SMM June 27 news: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE zinc rose 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%, and SHFE tin rose 1.66%. SHFE nickel rose 0.36%. SHFE lead fell 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.64%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract rose 1.66%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar fell 0.1%. HRC was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.13%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.21%. Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc rose 1.8%. LME tin rose 1.69%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but posted a four-week losing streak on the weekly chart, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver rose 1.37%, but has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, down 10.79% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold continuous contract rose 1.34%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly decline, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver continuous contract rose 2.61%, with SHFE silver posting a weekly decline, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the path of inflation and whether central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will tighten policies to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, coupled with a more hawkish US Fed stance, led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting of new US Fed Chair Walsh had a 'hawkish' tone, and under his leadership, the central bank has the ability to 'drive or suppress' gold market prices. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which the eventual recovery in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should drive gold prices lower, as more investor funds shift from precious metals to other assets. Investors have been taking profits and shifting to equities, creating space for them to re-enter the precious metals sector and drive a price rebound, though this may require a major macro event to reignite investor interest in gold. The forecast is for spot gold to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, and then fall year by year through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast from $4,400 to $4,300. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:46 on June 27, the closing prices for the overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January-May, with the electronics industry providing significant support] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in January-May, the total profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,143.96 billion yuan, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street News APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve the Collection of Mining Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on further improving the collection of mining rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that effective August 1, 2026, late payment fees on mining rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected. If a mining rights holder fails to pay mining rights transfer proceeds on time and in full, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged starting from the date of default, and the total penalty will not exceed the principal amount overdue. The penalty for mining rights transfer proceeds shall be paid into the mining rights transfer proceeds revenue category and shared uniformly according to the central-local sharing ratio for mining rights transfer proceeds. Late payment fees incurred before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid according to the original regulations, and no penalty shall be imposed. On the US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.1% overnight to 101.36. On a weekly basis, the index posted a second straight weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. As oil prices fell and the market reassessed US interest rate prospects, Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the probability of a second rate hike has fallen to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations have cooled. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, to be released at 10 a.m. ET (10 p.m. Beijing time), is expected to rise to 49 from 44.8. (Jin10 Data APP) A Reuters poll showed that 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists in early June. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a note that the dollar’s recent rebound appears overdone and lacks the support needed to break out of its trading range of the past year. The Fed revised up its rate forecasts at last week’s meeting and clearly focused on inflation. This pushed real yields sharply higher and eased concerns about political pressure for interest rate cuts, boosting the dollar. However, this move now looks largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed mouthpiece,” sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has stalled. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final choice, forcing the bank to relaunch a selection process that has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Also worth watching this week: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra, running through July 1; The 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference takes place from June 29–30; ECB President Lagarde speaks in Sintra; The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its June monetary policy meeting minutes; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; Technical talks between the US and Iran (pending); Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speak at the ECB Forum; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; And China will initiate a new round of adjustments to its refined oil product pricing window. Notably, on July 1, China-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be closed for the day in observance of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-New York Stock Exchange will close for the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in precious metals, energy, forex, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on the US-Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early on July 4 at 01:00 Beijing time due to the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early on July 4 at 01:30 Beijing time for the same reason. In crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures declined, with WTI falling 2.34% and Brent falling 2.52%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted a third straight weekly decline, dropping 7.4% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a third straight week, losing 8.06%. Spot Brent crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, and the market for near-month contracts has been in contango—where near-term prices are lower than longer-term ones—for seven consecutive days, reflecting temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, noted that oil prices "fell too far, too fast," that the ceasefire remains fragile and uncertainty persists in the Strait of Hormuz, and that he expects volatility to continue. Rich Privorotsky, head of One-Delta at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that Iran has begun shows of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some vessels have altered their routes, and the inventory buildup in the Gulf is gradually flowing into the market. He believes that upside potential for oil prices is limited in the near term, but that the case for significantly further downside from current levels is equally weak. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rigs recorded their largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

As the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, 2026 marks a critical phase for the global copper industry, characterized by supply-demand restructuring, technological innovation, and green transition. Constrained by multiple factors—including resources, costs, and geopolitics—copper supply growth is limited, while new energy, new-type power grids, and AI computing power are generating substantial copper demand. The supply-demand gap continues to widen, and copper's strategic value becomes ever more prominent. Guided by the "High-Quality Development Plan for the Copper Industry (2025–2027)," China's copper industry is accelerating its high-end, intelligent, and green transformation. Against this backdrop, , will be grandly held on 28-30 October at the Shangri-La Hotel, Nanchang, Jiangxi . SMM , in partnership with Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. , invites you to attend . The conference will focus on the high-quality development of the copper industry, gathering participants from industry, research, and finance to discuss technological innovation and resource coordination, promoting China's copper industry's shift from scale advantage to dual leadership in technology and value. Click the to register now; we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. ("Shandong Humon Smelting") was founded in 1988 and is dedicated to becoming a world-class precious metals smelting enterprise that ensures employee well-being, customer satisfaction, and environmental harmony. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on May 20, 2008 (stock code: 002237). In 2019, Jiangxi Copper Corporation became its controlling shareholder. Building on the momentum of reform and opening-up and leveraging its expertise in technological innovation, the company has steadfastly pursued market-oriented and international operations. After more than 30 years of persistent entrepreneurial efforts, it has remained China's largest gold smelter for 12 consecutive years. In 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 110 billion yuan and produced 100 mt of gold. As a pioneer and leader in pyrometallurgy, the company is rooted in fire-based processes and integrates the entire chain, developing a comprehensive "cyanide-free pyrometallurgical environmental technology system." This system has been recognized with two second prizes for National Science and Technology Progress and twelve first prizes at the provincial/ministerial level. Focusing on the transformation and upgrading of gold mining and smelting, the company has put forward the strategic vision of "Unlocking Infinite Value from Limited Resources, Leading Green Development in Gold Mining and Smelting." While producing gold and silver, it also achieves the comprehensive extraction of metals such as copper, lead, zinc, antimony, selenium, tellurium, and platinum, forming a diversified development pattern encompassing gold mining, metal smelting, international trade, and high-purity materials. Looking ahead, guided by the lines, principles, and policies of the Party and the state, the company will integrate global mineral resources to create wealth for China in this era, embarking on a new journey of high-quality, leapfrog development and striving unremittingly to become a world-class precious metals mining and smelting enterprise. Contact: Wang Lu 0535-4631040 Email: manage@hbyl.cn Address: No. 11 Jinzheng Street, Shuidao Town, Muping District, Yantai City Scan to Register SMM Conference Contact Li Chongshan 173 4975 4665 lichongshan@smm.cn

This week, LME copper prices retreated from highs, drifting lower after hitting a high at Monday’s open. Mid-week, prices briefly fell to a low of $12,988/mt, with a weekly decline of about 3.3%. The pullback in copper prices led to a slight spike in payable indicators, pushing up the overall discount range by about 0.2%. By specific grade, bare bright copper saw its main transaction coefficient remain high at 98.5%–99%, while No.1 copper semis’ transaction range was concentrated at 97%–98%. In contrast, quotes for No.2 copper semis showed clear divergence: with precious metal prices staying high, smelters’ acceptance of No.2 copper semis with high gold and silver content rose significantly, with quotes reaching 97.5%–98%, even exceeding those for No.1 copper semis in a price inversion. Such high-gold-and-silver-content copper semis mainly originate from the Americas, so quotes for Americas-origin No.2 copper semis were notably higher than from other regions. Meanwhile, No.2 copper semis from Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, generally low in gold and silver content, saw relatively pressured quotes, with transaction ranges mostly concentrated at 95%–96%. However, constrained by the current overall supply-demand weakness, actual market transactions this week were relatively sluggish. On one hand, payable indicators were already at historical highs, limiting room for further upside. On the other, although copper prices pulled back and enterprises’ tolerance for high prices gradually improved, the absolutely elevated copper prices still significantly suppressed purchasing sentiment. In addition, macro and seasonal factors further dragged on major Asian consumer markets: Japan, one of the key consumers, was about to face its annual settlement window on June 30, and some enterprises had already stopped purchasing in advance. At the same time, Japanese scrapyards were engaged in Q3 quarterly supply negotiations with downstream consumers, causing them to generally slow down their current purchasing pace. Compounding this, the yen and won exchange rates against the US dollar remained at low levels, driving up local enterprises’ ex-China procurement costs and prompting traders in both regions to adopt a generally cautious stance toward overseas purchases. Under the combined weight of falling copper prices and tight overall market supply, ex-China scrapyards currently hold a strong sentiment of holding back from selling, and the near-term market stalemate is expected to continue into next week.

SMM, June 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, SHFE lead rose 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.7%, and SHFE nickel declined 1.81%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.41%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.26%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.89%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 3.53%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.67%, rebar lost 0.64%, hot-rolled coil slipped 0.51%, and stainless steel dipped 0.21%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.92%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all fell. LME copper dropped 1.55%, LME aluminum fell 0.97%, LME lead lost 0.39%, LME zinc declined 1.38%, LME tin tumbled 1.99%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver plunged 3.4%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged down 0.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended losses from the previous five trading days, falling another 2.72%, and hit an intraday low of 13,513 yuan/kg, the weakest since December 2025. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.31%, while the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.85%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures added 0.7% to 3,686.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:43, June 26: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: The futures market stopped falling and edged up today. Spot aluminum in South China gradually weakened amid divergence. Low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers holding prices firm in selling... Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will continue to open up energy projects and issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects] Wan Jinsong, deputy director and spokesperson of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the administration will persist in the approach of open construction and service-driven investment, increasing support for private enterprises to engage in building a new-type energy system. For major energy projects, it will expand the investment space for private enterprises. For major projects with certain returns, such as nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas storage and transportation facilities, the feasibility of private enterprise participation will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to open up energy projects, issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects and others, so that their investments have direction and returns are guaranteed. We will further improve the electricity market and pricing mechanism, and support private enterprises in investing in projects such as virtual power plants, charging facilities, and new-type energy storage. [Wang Hongzhi, Director of the National Energy Administration: China's installed power capacity is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030] Wang Hongzhi, member of the Party Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's installed power capacity has now exceeded 4 billion kW and is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030. Among this, new energy will account for over 50% of installed capacity, becoming the mainstay of power capacity, while non-fossil fuel power generation will account for 50% of total electricity output, becoming the main source of electricity. Coal and oil consumption will have peaked. The PBOC conducted a 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. No reverse repos matured today. The PBOC injected a net 329.7 billion yuan into the open market this week. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.47. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.6%, cumulative 25-bp hike is 48.8%, and cumulative 50-bp hike is 14.6%. Fed Williams stated that the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target while acknowledging that risks to achieving its dual mandate remain. Williams said, "Given that inflation is elevated, we must bring it back sustainably to the 2% longer-run goal. The current stance of monetary policy is fully capable of achieving that." Williams noted that inflation is "clearly elevated" and well above the Committee's 2% objective. He expects inflation data to pull back slightly over the next few quarters, although significant risks remain. Fed Goolsbee said on Thursday that while the latest US inflation report showed a glimmer of hope for improvement in services inflation, underlying inflation pressures remain too high and concerning. In an interview with CNBC, Goolsbee declined to offer specific views on whether the Fed should raise rates or keep them unchanged. He said he agreed with Fed Chairman Warsh's view that fueling speculation about future interest rate paths should be avoided. (Jin10 Data APP) US data sent mixed signals while oil prices fell below pre-conflict levels. The May PCE inflation YoY matched average expectations, accelerating from 3.8% to 4.1%. Lower energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fell 4.5%, versus average expectations for a 4% decline. Meanwhile, Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 1.7%. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 215,000, against average expectations of 223,000. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said the US dollar index has strengthened rapidly in recent days, driving gold prices below the $4,000/oz mark. Fading inflation concerns did not push the dollar lower. We believe political “re-dollarization” may partly explain the dollar’s recent strength, but a more important driver likely comes from expectations of tightening dollar liquidity. We expect the dollar index to find support this year but struggle to sustain a strong rally, and the next US inflation data could be a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies. On the data front: The final US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and final June one-year inflation expectations will be released today. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks. On the crude oil front: As of 11:43, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 1.67% and Brent down 1.54%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, supply concerns eased somewhat. However, a cargo vessel was attacked near Oman on Thursday, and markets will closely monitor geopolitical developments. S&P Global Energy reported on the 25th that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, the highest single-day tally since the outbreak of the Iran war. The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels. As of the 24th, a cumulative total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait this month, putting it on track to be the busiest month since the war began. The report noted that recent departures from the Strait included vessels that had been stranded for long periods due to the conflict as well as recent arrivals, signaling early signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the rebound in transit volumes can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements still need further consolidation and implementation. ((Xinhua News Agency) US Secretary of Energy Wright expects Iran's daily crude oil exports to reach up to 2 million barrels. Additionally, market sources say that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; in the past three days through Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data App) An earlier Wallstreetcn article reported that the UAE formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1, and Iraq subsequently threatened to follow suit unless granted greater production freedom. Meanwhile, a series of geopolitical shocks—including the US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and US-Israeli military actions against Iran—have significantly eroded OPEC's market control capability. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[China begins negotiations on July zinc concentrate TCs, awaiting results next week]: On a weekly basis, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC averaged price remained flat WoW at -200 yuan/mt Zn, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $5.74/dmt WoW to -$77.5/dmt..

Today's SMM 10:00 AM fixing for the SGE Ag (T+D) was 13,861 yuan/kg, with a premium range quoted at parity against the T+D contract to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, still unchanged from the previous trading session. On the macro front, the US PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.1% overnight, while the core PCE price index recorded 3.4%, matching market expectations. This, combined with remarks by the Fed's Williams, eased concerns over Fed rate hikes, and precious metals rebounded slightly overall. In the spot market, downstream consumption was moderate after silver prices trended lower throughout the week. Morning offers in the Shanghai region were mainly concentrated at T+D parity to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned towards the high end, while downstream enterprises negotiated procurement based on price, with transactions closing more at the mid-to-low end. Approaching month-end, suppliers had limited willingness to sell, and some suppliers who had cleared inventory suspended offering. Low-priced supply in other regions was largely cleared. Quotes in the Shenzhen area mostly centered around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against the T+D contract. Today, the market quoted a discount of around 35 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract. Recently, overall premiums in the silver spot market have been relatively stable, with trading volume recovering slightly as absolute prices stayed at low levels.

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

June 24, 2026 The price of gold remains under short-term pressure following recent setbacks, but the broader bull market is far from over. For Jerry Prior, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), the current decline is primarily a healthy readjustment following overheated positioning. The true long-term drivers—above all, the global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency—remain absolutely intact. Healthy Correction: Why the Fed Shock Is Cleaning Up the Market In recent weeks, the precious metal has come under noticeable selling pressure due to several concurrent factors. The Federal Reserve’s more restrictive stance under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the associated expectations of higher interest rates massively increased the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing gold. At the same time, immediate safe-haven demand eased due to a de-escalation in the Middle East, prompting speculative investors and systematic trend-following funds to engage in massive selling. However, it is precisely this sharp reduction in positions that has already removed the bulk of the downside risk from the market. According to the expert, the risk of panic selling driven by retail inflows has been virtually eliminated following this rigorous market correction. Even if prices were to slip temporarily below the psychologically important threshold of $4,000 per ounce, the focus would instead shift to the enormous potential in the period that follows. As soon as global oil markets stabilize again and new revenues flow into commodity-exporting countries, a massive return of central banks seeking to further build up their gold reserves is to be expected. The Catalyst: De-dollarization Fuels the Next Bull Run Structural de-dollarization remains the strongest argument for strategic gold positions. The increasing use of the U.S. dollar as a geopolitical lever—the so-called “weaponization of the dollar”—is forcing more and more countries to seek alternative stores of value beyond U.S. Treasury bonds. This trend is considered irreversible. Additional revenues from exporting nations are likely to be channeled directly into the gold market in the future, rather than being used to finance the U.S. deficit. This development is accompanied by a macroeconomic environment characterized by structurally higher inflation. The end of cheap globalization benefits from China, the resource-intensive restructuring of global supply chains, and the costly relocation of production facilities virtually guarantee that inflation will not permanently return to the extremely low pre-pandemic level. The recent correction is therefore not a harbinger of a long bear market, but merely a temporary pullback within a secular uptrend. For long-term commodity investors, this market movement is actually good news. Viewed in this light, the current pullback to historically significant support levels flushes speculative market participants out of the system and offers a healthy entry opportunity. Since the fundamental megatrends—from global de-dollarization to massive central bank purchases—remain absolutely intact, as many experts emphasize, the foundation for the next upward cycle could be taking shape here, initially heading toward the $4,500 mark. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-remain-under-pressure-but-this-is-exactly-where-a-new-opportunity-could-lie

[Price Review] This week (6.22-6.25), silver prices plunged sharply under pressure at highs. Amid multiple macro bearish factors, the price center of precious metals shifted down markedly WoW. The US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. Coupled with a stronger US dollar index, precious metals faced clear suppression. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US would continue to adhere to a strong-dollar policy, and emphasized that countries such as Iran and Venezuela rejoining the dollar system in the future would help further consolidate the dollar’s international status. Affected by this, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On industrial demand, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market versus TD were basically flat WoW, and the transaction center remained mainly concentrated on the Gold Exchange TD at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, downstream enterprises’ procurement pace recovered somewhat, but overall it remained dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk; some enterprises showed pronounced fear-of-falling sentiment. On inventory, social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking. Maintenance at some smelters and delivery of export orders continued to draw down inventory, but inventory factors provided limited support to prices. On the gold/silver ratio, as of June 24, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold. [Key Data] Bearish: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated a strong-dollar stance and said the dollar’s international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding. 2. The hawkish impact of the US Fed’s June meeting continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. 3. US Treasury yields stayed high, with real rates continuing to suppress precious metals, and asset-allocation preferences still tilted toward US dollar assets. [Near-Term Watch] June 26: US Q1 final GDP; June 27: US May core PCE price index; July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, remarks by US Fed officials, the US dollar index trend, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation. [Price Forecast] Next week, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with the current core market logic centered on the US Fed’s policy path and the US dollar trend. After the June meeting, the US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment; together with Bessent’s recent strong-dollar remarks driving the US dollar index higher, and US Treasury yields staying high, silver faced multiple layers of macro pressure. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market maintained an overall just-in-time procurement pattern. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven correction landscape. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingots is expected to remain on par with or at a premium of up to 20 yuan/kg over the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract, with limited potential for an immediate further increase in premiums. Overall, against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed’s hawkish stance, silver remains under correction pressure in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with market attention on further guidance from US core PCE data on expectations.

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. 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