SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] SMM learned that the base selling price of prebaked anodes for April 2026 at a large prebaked anode sales company in China rose by 385 yuan/mt MoM. Regional selling prices were: north-west China: 5,607 yuan/mt; North China: 5,557 yuan/mt; south-west China: 5,607 yuan/mt; South China: 5,607 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express] According to SMM, the base selling price for prebaked anode at a major domestic prebaked anode sales company for March 2026 dropped by 56 yuan/mt MoM. Regional selling prices were as follows: north-west China: 5,222 yuan/mt; north China: 5,172 yuan/mt; south-west China: 5,222 yuan/mt; south China: 5,222 yuan/mt.

SMM February 6: Prebaked Anode Market: Domestic and Export Prices Fall Together, Weak Cost Side Drags Down Future Market In February 2026, prebaked anode prices mainly declined. In the domestic market, a Shandong aluminum enterprise set its February 2026 procurement benchmark price at 5,229 yuan/mt, down 2% MoM. In the export market, according to SMM surveys, prebaked anode export order prices in February mainly fell, with declines concentrated in the range of $10-20/mt. Raw material side, since February, due to downstream aluminum carbon and anode material enterprises mainly restocking based on rigid demand, purchasing enthusiasm has been relatively moderate. Petroleum coke prices were generally stable with slight fall. Although post-holiday restocking provided some support, affected by supply-demand and cost factors, petroleum coke prices in February are expected to continue structural differentiation and an overall trend in the doldrums. In the coal tar pitch market, support from the cost side high-temperature coal tar loosened, and coal tar pitch prices mainly operated in the doldrums. Overall, the prebaked anode cost side was in the doldrums, and prebaked anode prices next month are expected to be slightly under pressure. Aluminum Fluoride Market: Tender Pricing Decline Drives Prices Down, Weak Supply-Demand Constrains Future Recovery The downstream aluminum benchmark enterprise's February 2026 tender pricing saw a decline, finally settling in the range of 10,480-10,550 yuan/mt, driving aluminum fluoride prices to generally follow with declines of 200-380 yuan/mt. Overall, the aluminum fluoride fundamentals failed to provide effective support for prices. Loosening costs combined with a weak supply-demand situation caused prices in February to fall under pressure. The supporting effect from the raw material side significantly weakened, further constraining market trends. The support from raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid was limited. The core intermediate hydrofluoric acid market experienced weak supply-demand around the Chinese New Year, with an unclear pace for post-holiday operating rate and demand recovery, greatly weakening the cost transmission effect. On the supply side, although the current industry operating rate has declined somewhat, spot inventory remains sufficient. Post-holiday production resumptions by enterprises will further release capacity, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, only slight recovery was achieved relying on rigid demand restocking by aluminum enterprises, lacking substantial incremental support. Under multiple constraints, aluminum fluoride prices next month are highly likely to continue their weak trend.

SMM According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in January 2026 dropped 0.6% MoM and fell 19.5% YoY. During the period, raw material costs for alumina and auxiliary material costs for prebaked anode declined, while electricity and aluminum fluoride costs increased, resulting in a slight pullback in total cost. The average SMM A00 spot price in January was approximately 23,641 yuan/mt (December 26, 2025–January 25, 2026), with the monthly average aluminum price rising 1,840 yuan/mt MoM. Aluminum profit margins expanded to over 7,500 yuan/mt. If calculated using the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in January. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side, SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in January was 2,667 yuan/mt (December 26, 2025–January 25, 2026), down 4.6% MoM. Domestic alumina inventory continued to build up during the month, and prices declined gradually. Entering February 2026, operating alumina capacity is expected to decrease due to maintenance and production cuts, but spot alumina supply remains relatively ample. Spot alumina prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term, with the monthly average price projected to fall MoM. Alumina raw material costs are expected to decline. Auxiliary material market side, prebaked anode prices dropped in January, while fluoride salt prices rose MoM. In February 2026, both prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to decline, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity prices side, entering the dry season, electricity prices in provinces with high hydropower shares such as Yunnan and Sichuan increased significantly in January, raising the average national aluminum electricity cost. In February 2026, electricity prices are expected to stabilize, and aluminum electricity costs are projected to remain steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of the domestic aluminum industry in February 2026 to decline MoM, with the average ranging around 15,700–16,100 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express] According to SMM, the tender price for prebaked anodes at a large aluminum smelter in Shandong Province in February fell by 95 yuan/mt MoM. The spot price for prebaked anodes in February 2026 was set at 5,229 yuan/mt, while the acceptance price was set at 5,261 yuan/mt.

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost for China's aluminum industry in November 2025 was 16,057 yuan/mt, up 1.1% MoM but down 21% YoY.

SMM News on June 12: Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, the shipment performance of refineries remained generally average during the week, with petroleum coke prices showing an overall weak and stable trend. Specifically, this week, the prices of petroleum coke under CNOOC were mainly on a downward trend, with declines ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/mt. The current price range is 3,170-3,200 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical is still under maintenance and has not provided a quote, while the port quote for Huizhou coke has dropped by 50 yuan/mt. In the northeast region under PetroChina, refinery shipments were stable during the week, and petroleum coke prices transitioned smoothly, with the current price range at 3,350-3,700 yuan/mt. It was also learned that Dagang Petrochemical's petroleum coke price through bidding declined slightly by 50 yuan/mt during the week. For Sinopec, the trading of petroleum coke at its refineries was generally average, and prices at some refineries increased slightly during the week, with increases concentrated within 50 yuan/mt. Among local refineries, shipments were relatively stable, and petroleum coke prices fluctuated, with daily adjustments mostly within 100 yuan. Currently, downstream enterprises are still mainly restocking based on immediate needs, with no significant growth in overall demand. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will maintain a generally stable with slight fall trend in the short term. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,230 yuan/mt, down about 1.13% MoM. In the coal tar pitch market, prices declined this week. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 3,748 yuan/mt, down 6.21% MoM. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anodes continues to loosen. From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt a "produce based on sales" strategy. This week, the industry's operating rate remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply maintained a dynamic balance, with no significant increases or decreases. In terms of demand, with the southward shift of aluminum capacity in Shandong and regional adjustments in electrolytic aluminum capacity, overall capacity is operating smoothly. Brief Commentary: This week, the raw material market for prebaked anodes performed weakly, with cost support continuing to weaken. According to SMM data, as of June 12, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was approximately 4,631 yuan/mt, down 0.74% MoM. The decline in raw material prices has significantly improved corporate profitability, with the industry's real-time profit expanding to over 300 yuan/mt. Currently, the industry's operating rate remains high, and downstream demand is stable. In the short term, prebaked anode prices will remain stable. However, due to the short-term difficulty in changing the weak trend in the raw material market, it is expected that prebaked anode prices will lack upward momentum next month. Continuous attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and price trends in the industry chain. 》Click to view SMM's aluminum industry chain database

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Destocking Provides Support for Aluminum Prices During Off-Season, Prices Expected to Fluctuate Considerably] On the macro side, the phone call between China and the US may lead to a de-escalation of the trade war, while the rebound in China's manufacturing PMI and improvement in export indicators in May provide demand support, indicating that the resilience of the domestic economy remains. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the reduction in casting ingot volume has temporarily maintained the destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, the impact of the Guinea mine incident on alumina prices has eased somewhat, and the real-time cost of electrolytic aluminum has declined slightly MoM. On the demand side, it faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties. In the short term, the operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure, and the off-season atmosphere will intensify. Overall, the current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. However, the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingot in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound in the short term.

A certain aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in June 2025, which remained flat MoM. Meanwhile, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company simultaneously lowered its sales pricing, with a MoM decrease of 142 yuan/mt. Despite varying performances in the raw material market, overall costs have declined. According to SMM data, as of June 6, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China fell to 4,670 yuan/mt, a significant decrease of 6.32% from May 9. The reduction in cost-side pressure has supported the industry's profitability. Based on a one-month production cycle, the profitability of the prebaked anode industry has significantly improved, with theoretical profitability increasing by approximately 350 yuan/mt MoM. Most prebaked anode enterprises are now in a state of marginal profitability. Entering June, domestic refinery maintenance and production resumptions coexist, with overall supply-side fluctuations remaining relatively small. However, with the continuous arrival of overseas petroleum coke and weak domestic demand, port inventories of petroleum coke have continued to rebound, resulting in a relatively abundant supply in the petroleum coke market. On the demand side, the operating rate of the prebaked anode industry is high, but enterprises' procurement enthusiasm is low, preferring a strategy of restocking at low prices. Meanwhile, orders in the anode material and graphite electrode markets are weak, and the previous stockpiling by glass and cement plants has been largely completed, leading to weakened demand. Therefore, the demand side remains generally sluggish. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to continue their downward trend in June, thereby exerting a sustained impact on the cost side of prebaked anodes. Considering the aforementioned factors, SMM expects prebaked anode prices to remain in the doldrums next month.