As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

SMM June 6 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%, LME copper fell 2.78%, and LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1% (LME aluminum fell 1.84%, LME zinc fell 1.52%, and SHFE copper fell 1.84%). The declines for the remaining metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.65%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with only stainless steel falling by 0.14%. All other metals rose, with hot-rolled coil and rebar up around 0.4% (hot-rolled coil rose 0.47% and rebar rose 0.44%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold fell 3.35%, posting a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver tumbled 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, recording a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%, and SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US once again recorded strong job growth in May, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping's Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping's first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and North Korea has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Both sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push China-North Korea relations for greater development while advancing with the times, enhancing the well-being of the two peoples, and making greater contributions to regional and even global peace, stability, development, and prosperity. (Xinhua News Agency) China: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council Executive Meeting on June 5. The meeting pointed out that, based on the characteristics of future industries, it is necessary to further strengthen forward-looking layout and intensify promotion efforts to firmly grasp the initiative in development. Efforts must be made to solidify the technological foundation by continuously increasing investment in basic research and systematically deploying original and disruptive technological breakthroughs. Emphasis should be placed on ecosystem building by promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation along the industry chain, and cultivating more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Employees may withdraw the stored balance in their housing provident fund accounts under any of the following circumstances: (1) paying rent; (2) purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling self-occupied housing; (3) repaying principal and interest on home purchase loans; (4) decorating self-occupied housing up to a specified limit; (5) paying property management fees for self-occupied housing; (6) retiring or resigning; (7) completely losing work capacity and terminating the employment (personnel) relationship with the employer; (8) emigrating and settling abroad; (9) other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mini- and Small-Sized Passenger Car Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of EV charging facilities in highway service areas, with 30,000 new or upgraded EV charging facilities (charging guns) with power above 60 kW to be completed in highway service areas (including rest areas) by the end of 2028. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07, following data that showed strong US job performance in May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, with jobs data for the previous two months revised upward. The average job growth over the last three months marked the best performance in over two years, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience far exceeding overall market expectations. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos noted that the re-acceleration of hiring this spring will provide further ammunition for Fed officials concerned about inflation and believing current interest rates are too low to suppress a new round of price pressures. Some officials have recently hinted that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back part of the three 25-basis-point rate cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were made to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier than it did then. This jobs report won't entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it further illustrates that the case for cutting rates in the near term has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for rate hikes currently stems from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks, including AI infrastructure buildout, tariffs, and energy, could keep inflation persistently well above the Fed's 2% target, even if progress is made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. If the Fed stays on hold while inflation rises, real inflation-adjusted rates would decline. Even if the labour market isn't the main driver, this mechanism could become a key factor fueling debate over rate hikes. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed's Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly in balance, rate hikes could become appropriate in the near term. Hammack said that while she never focuses too much on any single data point, today's jobs report reaffirms that the labour market seems roughly in balance. She noted that the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% is broadly consistent with what she defines as full employment. Given the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, holding rates steady is sensible for now. But if recent trends continue, action could be needed soon. This essentially echoed remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, the May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, prompting the US interest rate futures market to sharply increase bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. According to LSEG data, interest rate futures markets now price in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the release of the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market continues to widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Stronger than expected employment data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforcing investor judgement that the Fed could resume raising rates later in the year to address inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (vs. 96.4% prior to the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Next week, China side, China will release data including the May CPI yoy, May PPI yoy, May Trade Balance (pending), and May M2 Money Supply yoy (pending). US side, data to be released includes the US May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP Employment for the week ending May 23, April Trade Balance, May Existing Home Sales Annualized Rate, April Wholesale Sales m/m, May unadjusted CPI yoy, May seasonally adjusted CPI m/m, May seasonally adjusted Core CPI m/m, May unadjusted Core CPI yoy, US 10-Year Note Auction rate and bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending June 10, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI yoy, May PPI m/m, June preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, and June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Germany side, data to be released includes the German April seasonally adjusted Industrial Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Trade Balance, and May final CPI m/m. Eurozone side, data to be released includes the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, ECB Deposit Facility Rate for the period through June 11, and ECB Main Refinancing Rate for the period through June 11. UK side, data to be released includes the UK April 3-month GDP m/m, April Manufacturing Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Goods Trade Balance, and April Industrial Production m/m. Other data to be released includes the Bank of Canada rate decision for the period through June 10, France May final CPI m/m, Japan April Trade Balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index. Additionally, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BOC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: At the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell collectively. WTI crude fell 3%, and Brent crude declined 2.37%, though both recorded weekly gains (WTI crude up 3.31% for the week, Brent crude up 1.82% for the week). Overnight oil prices fell mainly due to reduced market concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict. On the 5th, while at a campaign event in Wisconsin, former President Trump tweeted that he would swiftly end the war with Iran, removing a key driver of high prices. As the midterm elections approach, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran conflict has led to rising oil prices and higher living costs, pressuring Republican electoral prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. It expects rapid production recovery in the region, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries combined with potentially more aggressive OPEC policy could reignite oversupply conditions in 2026 Q4 and push oil prices lower once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around end-July (meaning a five-month effective closure period), our base case forecast is for Brent crude oil to average $87/bbl in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains over the exact timing of the strait's reopening, and risks to oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects temporary logistical supply disruptions rather than permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the strait to reopen around the end of July and believe Brent crude oil prices will fall significantly from elevated levels seen during the March to July period. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade against Iran and ongoing turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continue to curtail output. OPEC daily oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels in May (Iran accounting for half), dropping to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. The figures exclude the UAE, which left OPEC last month. Iran's daily oil production last month tumbled to 2.34 million barrels, the lowest in five years, a drop of 710,000 barrels. The US Central Command remains active in enforcing the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, now expecting that crude oil prices could remain around $100/bbl until 2028 even if the US reaches a peace agreement with Iran, because it now assumes a longer timeline for energy supply recovery from the Gulf region. The new analysis warns that pressures on energy prices are higher than previously expected, while the global economic outlook is also deteriorating. The UK government previously expected that Gulf region supplies could resume within about six months after the war ends, but it now believes that recovery could take as long as fourteen months. (Jin10 Data APP)

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

According to the latest SMM steel shipping data, China's total steel export volume from 32 ports in May was 11.46 million mt, down 3.43% MoM. Among main ports, port departures for steel in May were Zhanjiang (450,900 mt, up 66.63% MoM), Fangchenggang (171,100 mt, up 40.13% MoM), Zhangjiagang (670,700 mt, up 45.52% MoM), Luojing Port (1.2224 million mt, up 30.15% MoM), Tianjin Xingang Port (2.6011 million mt, down 14.76% MoM), and Caofeidian (337,400 mt, down 33.23% MoM). Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

The DCE iron ore futures trended weaker, with the most-traded contract I2609 finally closing at 766 yuan/mt, down 0.91% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 1-5 yuan/mt from the previous day.

June 5 News: North China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 32-32.5, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 37.8-38.3, down WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.2-41.8, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38.5-39, down WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 34.9-35.4, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 36.5-37, flat WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.7-42.2, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38-38.5, down WoW from last Friday. With weakening cost support outside China and sluggish end-use demand, spot manganese ore in China fluctuates downward overall, though the short-term decline has moderated somewhat.

[SMM Flash News] According to reports, the Zhongqing Shenzhen Honghualing Intelligent Manufacturing Base has officially been put into operation, and the first batch of T800 humanoid robots successfully rolled off the production line, marking Zhongqing Robotics’ official entry into a new stage of large-scale delivery at the ten-thousand-unit level. This production site integrates intelligent manufacturing, R&D, and testing functions, boasts industry-leading production efficiency, and can achieve the production of one humanoid robot every 15 minutes. Its T800 humanoid robot stands 1.73 meters tall and weighs 75 kg, and adopts an integrated die-casting process using aerospace-grade high-strength aluminum alloy, balancing lightweight characteristics with overall structural stability.

[SMM Snapshot] According to reports, the second-phase construction project of Jinhua Daya Auto Parts Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 500,000 auto parts, in the NEV Town of Jinhua Development Zone, has recently entered the acceptance stage. Production lines for processes such as stamping and die-casting are being rapidly advanced and are about to start trial production. Daya Auto is a core supporting enterprise in the NEV industry chain, primarily supplying auto body and chassis metal sheet welding parts to automakers like Leap Motor. The company's first-phase factory has been smoothly put into operation, mainly providing the right front compartment longitudinal beam assembly for Leap Motor's Jinhua production site. The second-phase project adds perfected process systems including stam

[SMM Flash] According to reports, Shanghai Jingzhi Industrial Co., Ltd. recently announced that the company plans to invest through its wholly-owned subsidiary Anhui Jingzhi Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in the construction of the “Communication Structural Parts and Precision Automotive Parts Production Project,” to further optimize the layout of its precision manufacturing capacity and build integrated delivery capabilities.

[SMM Flash] According to reports, on June 1, Ruili Kemi plans to issue shares to acquire a 16% equity stake in Wuhan Ruili Kedesi Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd. held by Cheng Yi. Prior to this transaction, the company already held an 84% stake in the target company and consolidated it into its consolidated financial statements. After the transaction is completed, the company will achieve 100% control of the target company, which will help further deepen strategic synergy and business integration.