Around July 20, 2026, June import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain related products were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. For lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Cumulative lithium carbonate imports from January to June reached 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY... SMM compiled the H1 import and export situation of battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: The effect of concentrated shipments from Australia at its fiscal year-end manifested, with port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt in June, up 12% MoM. Mali: Port arrivals increased significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable output, with port arrivals staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, the share of high-grade ore from Nigeria increased, with concentrates accounting for over 65%. Zimbabwe, affected by transportation efficiency earlier, saw arrivals of 42,000 mt in June, which pulled back MoM. Based on SMM's data screening, the total LCE equivalent of incoming ore in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore fell to 72%, a MoM decline, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt from Brazil was previously traded lithium raw ore powder, which dragged down the overall concentrate share. In June 2026, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 mt of LCE, staying in a high range and providing a solid raw material base for the continuously climbing domestic lithium chemical production. Spodumene: Import Volume Continues to Rise, Australian Fiscal Year-End Push Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. The import volume has maintained high growth for several consecutive months, reflecting that domestic lithium chemical plants' rigid demand for upstream ore remains strong. Source: China Customs, Compiled by SMM From a grade structure perspective, based on SMM's data screening, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore in June fell to 72%, a MoM decline. The main drag was Brazil—its arrivals of 65,000 mt that month were mostly previously traded lithium raw ore powder; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall proportion of concentrates. Besides spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material, lithium sulfate, is also worth noting. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. From the source perspective, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape of this product with an absolute volume of 13,400 mt. Meanwhile, lithium sulfate imports from Zimbabwe also quietly rose to over one hundred mt. Although the absolute volume is still small, as the first batch shipment of lithium sulfate to China from the country, it marked the first step for subsequent regular supply growth from Zimbabwe. Summary: Raw material support was solid in June, but tightening expectations for the availability side are rising in July. In terms of total volume, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June were equivalent to nearly 80,000 mt of LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 mt, total domestic lithium raw material supply reached over 110,000 mt of LCE in the month, providing ample and relatively solid raw material support for lithium chemical production fluctuating at highs in June. However, beneath the relatively optimistic aggregate data, one key variable deserves attention: Most of the June arrivals had their destinations locked in through orders weeks or even months earlier, with only a low proportion of cargo actually entering the freely tradeable circulation of traders. The continuation of this pre-locked structure means that entering July, the available volume for spot lithium ore in the spot market will remain tight. If downstream just-in-time procurement pace stays unchanged, the tightening of circulating supply will constrain lithium chemical plants' flexibility in securing raw materials to some extent, thereby limiting the further room for lithium carbonate production growth in July—a transmission effect already reflected in SMM's recent weekly lithium carbonate production data. Regarding spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed that the overall trend in June was a decline. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, down $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the beginning of the month, representing a 12.67% decline. According to SMM, in June, enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased spodumene saw their spot profits fall into deep losses. The losses continued to widen during the month, mainly because spodumene concentrate prices pulled back along with lithium carbonate but to a limited extent. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices was less than that of lithium chemicals, leading to deepening losses in the processing segment. For externally purchased lepidolite, the immediate profit margin of enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased lepidolite narrowed in June compared to May, but they still maintained positive immediate profits for the full month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi strengthened market expectations for longer-term supply release, and lithium carbonate futures plummeted 6.58% on the day. Additionally, the lithium carbonate market experienced an extreme trend of "sharp decline—weak rebound—further bottoming" in the fourth week of June, further squeezing the profit margins of enterprises relying on externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Of this, imports from Chile reached 16,037 mt, accounting for 62% of the total; imports from Argentina were 8,403 mt, representing 32% of the total; and imports from Indonesia stood at 500 mt, making up 2% of the total. China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to June totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM but down 39% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 2,348 mt, down 5.6% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of lithium carbonate generally declined in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, a drop of 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, representing a decline of 12.57%. SMM understands that the price center of spot lithium carbonate in China drifted lower in June. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side was disrupted by news of mine license renewals in Jiangxi, and China's lithium carbonate imports reached historic highs in May, while GFEX warrants remained elevated around 50,000 mt. The demand growth expectations were within market expectations, leading to a drift lower in prices. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, maintaining an attitude of holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a buy-the-dip strategy, engaging in substantial dip-buying for stockpiling when prices fell below 160,000 yuan/mt. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching 142,000-151,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in June 2026, China imported 4,400 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 12% MoM and surging nearly 2-fold YoY. By source country, imports from South Korea were 1,159 mt (26% of total), Chile ranked second with 993 mt, and notably, imports from Indonesia remained low at only 774 mt in June. In exports, China’s lithium hydroxide exports in June reached 6,018 mt, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated quarter-end shipments and a modest recovery in overseas demand. Of this total, exports to South Korea were 5,032 mt, and to Japan 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, and China's lithium hydroxide trade temporarily returned to a net export position after many months. Battery Materials LFP In June 2026, China’s LFP cathode export market experienced an "explosive" growth with both volume and price rising. June total exports reached 15,379.6 mt, surging 101.7% MoM from May, setting a new monthly record high. Along with the jump in export volume, the average monthly export price rose to $9,125.1/mt, an increase of about 11.1%. Price side, generally, raw material exports would see price declines due to scale effects, but in June, the average LFP export price ($9,125.1/mt), compared with May’s $8,210/mt, rose by $915/mt, mainly driven by cost pass-through: domestic lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices both rose in June, directly pushing up export prices. June exports doubling MoM confirmed our assessment in last month’s flash report — “overseas demand remained robust, with several-fold YoY growth.” Overseas battery capacity is in a critical transition phase from “start-up” to “ramp-up,” creating a “rising volume and price” dividend period for the industry. For domestic material enterprises, locking in long-term contracts with core clients in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, and enhancing technological barriers, will be key to capturing high-premium overseas market share in H2. (Data sources: SMM and customs import/export statistics) [SMM Analysis] Volume and Price Both Surge! China’s LFP Exports Soared 101% MoM in June, Average Price Exceeded $9,100/Mt, Hitting a New High for the Year LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China’s cumulative LiPF6 exports were approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, and cumulative LiPF6 imports were around 24.4 mt. In exports, China’s LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were about 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. Specifically, major destinations included Poland (336.8 mt, down 25.47% MoM), South Korea (319.738 mt, down 45.9% MoM), Malaysia (113.211 mt, down 28.03% MoM), the US (157.601 mt, up 103.62% MoM), and Japan (115.56 mt, up 5.2% MoM). Overall, procurement volume of LiPF6 from outside China edged down in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports stood at 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. As for import average price, in June 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite was 59,596 yuan/mt, down 0.9% MoM but up 16.6% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports stood at 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. As for export average price, in June 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,080 yuan/mt, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Import side, volume and price fluctuations were relatively mild, and overall operations were stable. Export side, however, showed a 'volume down, price up' differentiation characteristic: the decline in export volume may be related to the high base in May and adjustments in overseas procurement pace at a certain stage; the rise in export average price was mainly driven by the continued pass-through of high domestic costs. Notably, although total exports declined, shipments of artificial graphite for lithium batteries from major exporting provinces showed a rebound, with one province's exports surging about 50% MoM and another province's MoM growth approaching 25%. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China's flake graphite imports stood at 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's flake graphite exports stood at 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. In June, both imports and exports of flake graphite saw significant MoM declines, primarily due to the high base effect in May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, with relatively mild YoY declines. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, in Q2 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports exhibited a clear retreat after rapid rise, with exports shooting up to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM, but still achieved positive YoY growth compared to June last year (up 3,500 mt), as the continued expansion of rigid demand for new energy outside China offset the short-term pacing pullback. Based on the full-year policy pace and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now displaying the distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven volatility, and continuous structural upgrade , with annual exports being influenced by both the agricultural input supply assurance policies and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, leading to an overall pattern of regular consolidating movements. ....... Based on the operating pace in H1 and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, in H2 2026 (July–August), the phosphoric acid industry remains in the window period for phosphate fertiliser export controls, with agricultural crude phosphoric acid exports restricted and the overall export volume subject to a natural ceiling. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to recover slightly from the June low, returning to above the monthly average of 30,000 mt, slightly offsetting the pressure of inventory buildup during the domestic agricultural off-season and using the resilience of external demand to firm up the market bottom. Entering September–December, the industry fundamentals and foreign trade landscape will see significant improvement. On August 31, the phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires. Coupled with concentrated restocking by overseas agricultural input companies in Q4, year-end capacity sprint by domestic LFP enterprises, and concentrated delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contract orders, phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak period of the year, with monthly export volume expected to exceed 40,000 mt and hit a new high for the year. The industry’s overall export volume and trade surplus will rise simultaneously. The dual boost from domestic and external demand will drive the industry’s market conditions into an upward inflection point, with not only wet process phosphoric acid demand continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid also benefiting from concentrated stockpiling in food and electronic fine chemicals, strengthening simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal processes thrive. Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January–June), China’s phosphate ore imports stood at 998,200 mt, up 29.66% YoY; exports at 133,900 mt, up 225.91% YoY; net imports at 864,300 mt. Four Key Changes 1. Imports Recovered to the 2024 High Level . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt grew 29.66% from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the level of 986,600 mt in H1 2024. In 2026, the single-month high was 243,900 mt in January, followed by secondary peaks of 206,600 mt in April and 182,100 mt in March. The import side rebounded significantly from the trough of 769,800 mt in H1 2025, confirming that the "high import" center has been established since 2024. 2. Exports Tripled, Hitting a Nearly 4-Year High . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, the highest level since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). In June alone, imports reached 50,900 mt, followed by 32,200 mt in May and 11,100 mt in April, forming a volume expansion structure in Q2, which closely aligns with the event window of Egypt's announcement on May 13 to halt new phosphate ore export contracts (shifting to higher value-added phosphate fertiliser exports). 3. Net imports remain high but narrowed . In 2026 H1, net imports stood at 864,300 mt, significantly higher than 942,800 mt in 2024 H1 (historical peak) and 728,700 mt in 2025 H1, reflecting the persistent supply gap of phosphate ore in China and continued high external dependence. 4. The seasonal pattern between H1 and H2 was disrupted. Historically, H1 imports were typically lower than H2 (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 reached 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than H1), but 2026 H1 imports of 998,200 mt already approached 2025 H2's 949,900 mt—the traditional winter stockpiling season in Q3-Q4 was delayed, and the import pace became more evenly distributed throughout the year. ......... Outlook for H2: Imports: H1 imports already reached 998,200 mt , and with winter stockpiling procurement + LFP cathode material stockpiling (preparing for the NEV peak season in Q3-Q4), 2026 H2 imports are expected to reach 1.1-1.3 million mt, with full-year imports at 2.1-2.3 million mt, up 15%-25% YoY, marking a historical high since 2023. Exports : June's 50,900 mt already showed signs of acceleration, with July-September exports projected at 100,000-200,000 mt. In Q4, driven by overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) + export competition restructuring among Egypt/Jordan/Morocco, full-year exports are expected at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net imports: 2026 net imports are projected at 1.7-2 million mt, remaining at historically high levels, reflecting the persistent undersupply of phosphate ore in China and continued rising dependence on overseas sources (Egypt/Jordan/Morocco/Kazakhstan/Peru/Algeria). Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid China's Monthly Sulphur Imports (2025 H1 vs. 2026 H1) In 2026 H1, China's sulphur imports showed a "monthly accelerating contraction" trend. Cumulative imports from January to June were approximately 2.26 million mt , a sharp decline of 57.7% compared to 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, with average monthly imports plummeting from around 800,000 mt in 2025 to about 380,000 mt. On a monthly basis, imports in January–March stayed around 500,000 mt (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); from April, they plunged off a cliff , with April plunging to 296,000 mt and May to 268,000 mt, and June hitting 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) — June monthly imports fell to less than 20% of the same period in 2025 (988,000 mt). Historically, total imports in 2025 were about 9.61 million mt , with a monthly average of about 800,000 mt and stable volume, while the 147,000 mt in June 2026 marked a rarely seen low in recent years . If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, H2 imports may face further pressure, with the full-year total expected to be only about 40% of the 2025 level . ....... Sulphur Imports: Volume Plunge and Source Restructuring — In H1 2026, imports were about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share of four Middle Eastern countries was cut in half (from ~35% to ~20%), with South Korea, Oman, and Canada filling the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric Acid Exports: Ban Leads to Zero Clearance — In H1 2026, exports were about 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , plunging out of the global market; Indonesia emerged as the top destination. Common Logic: The dual effects of geopolitical conflict and export controls have pushed China from a global sulphur resource hub towards self-preserving contraction. In terms of cobalt, Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products totaled about 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM and down 42% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were about 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM and down 43% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in June 2026 was $16,352/mt, down 1.54% MoM. Out of the monthly imported intermediate products, about 7,561 mt in physical content entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; ordinary trade accounted for about 2,849 mt in physical content, or 26%; and processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 550 mt in physical content, or 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought cobalt were about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and up 105% YoY. In June, by country, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. Although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly in June, the import and export windows remained fully closed. However, due to weak ex-China refined cobalt demand, some overseas traders still chose to ship refined cobalt to China, leading to a significant increase in imports. China's average unwrought cobalt import price in June 2026 was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-June 2026 were 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in June 2026 were approximately 503 mt, up 36% MoM and down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. The average export price of unwrought cobalt from China in June 2026 was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-June 2026 were 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Brief: Battery Material Prices Show Divergent Trends, End-user Procurement Remains Cautious] Lithium ore prices are in the doldrums but low-priced resources are limited, lithium carbonate spot and futures prices rebounded, and lithium hydroxide maintained a steady slight increase. Refined cobalt and cobalt salt are generally in the doldrums, impacted by off-season demand, sufficient inventory, and cautious procurement. Nickel sulphate cost support strengthened, ternary cathode precursor prices held steady, and ternary cathode material rebounded slightly, but actual cargo pick-up remained cautious. LFP prices declined along with raw material, while shipments continued to grow, supported by energy storage and commercial vehicle demand. Anode, separator, and electrolyte prices were generally stable, with expectations for some raw material cost transmission downstream. Sodium-ion battery material supply remained relatively tight, while the recycling market consolidated on a weak note due to fluctuations in lithium and cobalt raw material prices.

SMM News, July 23: LFP prices fell by about 1,650 yuan/mt this week, dragged down by the sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices; SMM lithium carbonate prices fell by about 5,500 yuan/mt this week, and the cost side was a major drag. Processing fee side, top-tier cathode material companies have issued price increase letters, but the final outcome remains uncertain. Currently, mainstream battery cell manufacturers settle in three ways: linking to phosphoric acid or iron phosphate prices, or a fixed price. Whether the processing fees settled at a fixed price will be adjusted in H2 remains to be confirmed. Pricing model side, top-tier battery cell manufacturers only adopt a price linkage mechanism for their core dependent cathode material suppliers, while most other suppliers still settle at a fixed price on a quarterly or semi-annual basis; mid- and lower-tier manufacturers generally use a price linkage model. Production and shipment expectations side, industry-wide LFP shipments rose about 7% MoM in July, in line with previous expectations. The main support came from steady growth in energy storage demand and actual orders from the commercial heavy-duty truck sector, while passenger vehicle demand remained stable. Shipments in August are expected to grow 4%-5% MoM, with relatively mild growth, mainly because some new capacity, though already installed, is still in the commissioning phase, limiting effective release. September will see a concentrated volume release of capacity, coupled with a gradual ramp-up in demand for passenger and commercial vehicles, which is likely to form an initial trend of the "September-October peak season". Downstream battery cell manufacturers have not yet finalized their production schedules for August to September. The final round of surveys will be completed at the end of July, at which point a clearer judgment on the actual scale of growth in September will be made. Currently, the operating rate of LFP plants is close to 80%, but the operating status shows a polarization: high-quality supply from top-tier players is relatively sought-after, while mid- and lower-tier enterprises, due to technical issues, face insufficient orders and are not yet operating at full capacity. Raw material price side, approaching month-end, iron phosphate enterprises are about to begin a new round of price negotiations with LFP plants. Currently, prices of raw materials such as phosphoric acid have pulled back from May and June, but downstream cathode plants' acceptance of price increases has noticeably weakened. Meanwhile, iron phosphate enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, and with tight supply, they are inclined to hold prices firm, leaving limited room for price cuts. Next week will see a clear adjustment period for iron phosphate prices, and the bargaining is expected to be intense. Non-integrated LFP enterprises continue to face raw material cost pressure, with profit margins remaining under pressure. Downstream demand and inventory side, market demand this week still saw decent growth, with energy storage and commercial vehicle sectors performing particularly prominently. Power battery cell demand remained steady, jointly supporting the upward trend in LFP cathode shipments. Inventory side, some LFP enterprises reported that improving downstream demand led to a decrease in days of finished product inventories, and downstream cargo pick-up enthusiasm improved compared to before.

[SMM Analysis: Phosphate Ore Import and Export Half-Year Review, 2026 H1 China's Phosphate Ore Imports Surge to One Million Tons, Exports Triple] In H1 2026 (from January to June), China's phosphate ore imports reached 998,200 tons, up 29.66% YoY; exports stood at 133,900 tons, up 225.91% YoY; net imports were 864,300 tons.

According to data from China Customs, China's phosphoric acid exports showed a notable retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026, with exports surging to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM but still up YoY from June last year (up 3,500 mt). Resilient overseas demand from the new energy sector continued to expand, offsetting the short-term, pace-related pullback. Based on the policy pace for the full year and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now exhibiting distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven fluctuations, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are impacted by both the policy to ensure agricultural material supply and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, resulting in an overall pattern of consolidating in regular cycles. 1. Significant Monthly Fluctuations in China's Phosphoric Acid Exports, Driven by Intertwined Policy and Seasonal Factors According to SMM statistics, from October 2023 to June 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports displayed clear seasonal fluctuation patterns, with monthly export volumes consolidating dramatically between 15,000 mt and 48,300 mt, while imports remained near zero over the long term, indicating the strong self-sufficiency of China's phosphoric acid industry. According to the SMM database, China's phosphoric acid exports follow a complete annual pace of " a dip during Chinese New Year, a spring rebound, a summer adjustment, and an autumn surge ." Each year, during January-February, the Chinese New Year holiday weighs on enterprise operations and logistics, causing export volumes to pull back. From March to June, as the pressure to ensure supply during the spring plowing season eases and the market resumes operations in an orderly fashion, exports steadily rebound. July-August marks a period of adjustment, where exports pull back slightly into a mild range for the year, influenced by ongoing controls on phosphate fertiliser exports and weaker downstream operations during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. From September to December, the market fully enters the prime window for annual exports, with continued volume growth and repeated new annual highs. Exports hit 48,300 mt in November 2025, a peak within the statistical period. This was mainly due to concentrated overseas stockpiling ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays, the traditional peak season for external demand in November, the bottoming out and rebound of China's phosphoric acid prices from late October 2025, and a price spread advantage between Chinese and overseas markets that stimulated greater purchasing activity overseas, all driving up monthly export volumes. This cyclical fluctuation is driven by a combination of policies and supply-demand factors in and outside China. To meet domestic agricultural supply requirements during the spring plowing and autumn fertiliser peak seasons, a special control on phosphate fertiliser exports is implemented from March 14 to August 31 each year. During this period, crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid is banned for export, with only battery-grade and high-purity food-grade phosphoric acid allowed for compliant export, naturally capping total exports for H1. After controls are lifted on August 31, export potential for H2 significantly opens up, creating a fixed policy cycle of " restricted in H1, volume release in H2 ." This also resonates effectively with the rhythm of international market demand. The agricultural fertiliser demand cycle in Southeast Asia and the soybean planting season in South America are highly aligned with the window for China's rising phosphoric acid exports. Coupled with factors such as optimized efficiency in export statutory inspections and a widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets after May 2025, this has further supported the continued rise in H2 exports in recent years. 2. Structural Upgrades: Continuous Optimization of Export Product Mix, New Energy High-End Trend Reshapes Trade Landscape China's phosphoric acid export structure is undergoing continuous upgrades. The share of traditional crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports has been declining year by year, while battery-grade purified phosphoric acid and high-end food-grade phosphoric acid have already become the mainstay of exports. The overall export landscape is gradually shifting from "low-end agricultural material exports" to "high-end new energy raw material exports." Especially during the annual export control period, high-purity phosphoric acid props up the industry's foreign trade fundamentals and serves as the core support for trade resilience. Behind this structural change is, on one hand, the continuous expansion of capacity for purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate, steadily improving the supply capacity of high-end products. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of the overseas lithium battery and energy storage industries has driven a steady increase in rigid demand for high-end phosphoric acid. Coupled with the guidance of routine controls on agricultural material exports, industry capacity and trade resources continue to tilt towards high-value-added, high-end products, ultimately driving a comprehensive upgrade of the phosphoric acid export trade system. From the perspective of global export markets, Asia has always been the core base for China's phosphoric acid exports, with high market concentration, and top Southeast Asian countries have accounted for a major share of export volumes for many years. According to 2025 export data by destination, exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia rank among the top globally. Leveraging the region's intensive agricultural cultivation, huge consumer demand from its large population, and geographical trade proximity, these countries continue to purchase large quantities of conventional agricultural- and industrial-grade phosphoric acid from China, firmly underpinning the overall export base. Exports to East Asian markets such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, China, are smaller in scale, mainly driven by industrial and food processing demand, with import unit prices generally at a high level. From 2023 to 2025, phosphoric acid imports from the Latin American market, represented by Brazil, increased significantly, and demand from multiple African countries expanded simultaneously. The expansion of large-scale agricultural development overseas and the establishment of local basic chemical facilities drove growth in raw material rigid demand, making these regions a highly promising emerging growth pole for China's phosphoric acid exports. From a pricing perspective, price spread segmentation by country is very pronounced: the average import prices for Singapore and South Korea are significantly higher than those for agricultural, rigid-demand markets, confirming the premium advantage of high-end product exports. Agricultural powerhouses like Thailand and Indonesia primarily purchase basic-grade products, with export unit prices at the industry's mid-level. Overall, a tiered export landscape has formed: " Southeast Asia provides volume support with massive rigid demand, Latin America and Africa offer continuous incremental growth, and Europe, the US, and East Asia deliver high premiums with high-end products ." 3. Outlook for 2026 Import/Export Trends and the Full Picture for the Phosphoric Acid Industry Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will still be within the phosphate fertiliser export control window in July-August H2 2026. Crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports will be restricted, creating a natural ceiling on total export volumes. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to slightly recover from the June low, return to above the central level of 30,000 mt/month, and slightly offset the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup, solidifying the market floor with export resilience. In the corresponding spot market, domestic demand will be weak during the traditional agricultural off-season, but high raw material costs (sulfur, phosphate ore) and sustained losses at small and medium-sized wet process plants, leading to low operating rates and widespread output controls to support prices, will keep the wet process phosphoric acid market in a stalemate and consolidation pattern, weak but with no room for a deep, trend-driven decline. From September to December, industry fundamentals and the foreign trade landscape are expected to significantly improve. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. This, coupled with concentrated overseas agricultural material restocking in Q4, year-end capacity ramp-up at domestic LFP enterprises, and the concentrated delivery of long-term overseas lithium battery orders, will drive phosphoric acid exports into their peak period for the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt, hitting a new annual high, with the industry's overall export volume and trade surplus rising in tandem. This two-way volume release in domestic and external demand is expected to drive the industry into an upward inflection point. Not only will wet process phosphoric acid demand continue to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemicals sectors and strengthen simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal process markets thrive. Over the medium and long term, the trend towards high-end products in China's phosphoric acid exports will become the norm. The export share of high-purity purified phosphoric acid will continue to rise, becoming the core source of growth for the industry's exports. Agricultural-grade phosphoric acid will fluctuate seasonally along with the annual policy cycle, forming a stable trade landscape where " high-end rigid demand stabilizes the base, while agricultural supplies provide elasticity through cycles ," with the monthly export base firmly anchored at around 30,000 mt. The industry's fundamentals will also sustain this structural trend. On the supply side, rigid raw material costs, insufficient plant operating flexibility, and routine policy controls will keep industry supply tightening. On the demand side, steady growth in rigid export demand for high-end new energy applications and agricultural demand supporting the base will enable the phosphoric acid industry to officially enter a new development cycle of low volatility, strong resilience, and high premiums. The overall market will be more likely to rise than fall, and structural opportunities will become the market mainstream.

[SMM Analysis: China's Phosphate Ore Imports Increased MoM in June; Egypt's Share Plunged as Substitute Supplies from Jordan, Morocco, etc. Surged] July 20, 2026, sourced from customs data. In June 2026, China's phosphate ore imports were 137,000 mt, edging up 4.5% MoM from 131,000 mt in May. Total import value was $12.567 million, up 2.8% MoM. The average import unit price was $91.5/mt, edging down 1.7% from $93.0/mt in May.

[Phosphorus Chemicals: June 2026 Phosphate Ore Exports Up 58.3% MoM, Yunnan and Fujian as Main Contributors] Customs data showed that in June 2026, China's phosphate ore exports totaled 51,000 mt, up 58.3% MoM. By province, Yunnan exported 34,000 mt in June (no exports in May), serving as the main source of growth; Fujian exported 17,000 mt in June, up 158.5% MoM; Guizhou and Hubei had no exports in June. Driven by heightened expectations for domestic phosphate ore winter stockpiling and a concentrated surge in demand for iron phosphate in the new energy industry chain, China's phosphate ore supply and demand remained tight. The concentrated release of exports in June was mainly driven by the delivery of previous orders, and attention should be paid to changes in the pace of exports in Q3.

[Phosphate Chemicals: China's Phosphate Ore Imports Edge Up MoM in June, Zhejiang Imports Surge Nearly 89 Times] July 20, 2026, according to customs data, in June 2026, China's phosphate ore imports amounted to 137,000 mt, edging up 4.5% MoM from 131,000 mt in May. Total import value was $12.567 million, up 2.8% MoM. The average import unit price was $91.5/mt, edging down 1.7% from $93.0/mt in May.

On the evening of July 18, Easpring released its performance forecast for the first half of 2026. For the period from January 1 to June 30, 2026, the company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to reach between 480 million yuan and 530 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.26% to 70.33%. Easpring attributed the significant performance improvement primarily to the company's ability to seize development opportunities in the power, energy storage, and consumer markets. With its technological leadership in phosphorus-based products, the company successfully secured positions in the large-scale energy storage and AIDC projects of leading global customers. The company also achieved rapid volume growth in lithium iron (manganese) phosphate products, with profitability continuing to improve. Meanwhile, new products such as solid-state materials, lithium-rich manganese-based materials, and sodium-ion battery cathode materials have continued to ramp up shipments to leading customers.

As the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," 2026 marks a critical stage for the global copper industry, characterized by supply-demand restructuring, technological innovation, and green transformation. Constrained by resources, costs, and geopolitics, copper supply growth remains limited. Meanwhile, new energy, new-type power grids, and AI computing power are driving substantial copper demand, widening the supply-demand gap and heightening copper's strategic value. Leveraging the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025–2027)," China's domestic copper industry is accelerating its high-end, intelligent, and green transformation. Against this backdrop, , will be held on October 28-30 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Nanchang, Jiangxi . Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) , together with Jiangsu Hongbo Gas Equipment Technology Group Co., Ltd. , invites you to attend . The conference focuses on the high-quality development of the copper industry, bringing together stakeholders from industry, research, and finance to discuss technological innovation and resource synergy, thereby shifting China's copper industry from scale advantage to dual leadership in technology and value. Click the to register now; we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Application of Nitrogen Generators in the Entire Copper Processing Industry Chain (Primarily PSA Nitrogen Generation, with Purification Units and Hydrogen-Nitrogen Ratio Control) Copper easily oxidizes, blackens, rusts, and forms scale at high temperatures. Nitrogen, as an inert protective gas, isolates oxygen and moisture and is an essential gas source for melting and casting, wire drawing, annealing, copper pipe & tube and strip, electronic copper foil, and furnace purging. On-site nitrogen generation replaces liquid nitrogen/nitrogen cylinders, significantly lowering gas costs. Product Introduction Fully Automatic PSA Nitrogen Generator Nitrogen purity adjustable 99.5%–99.999% Flow rate 5–1,000 Nm³/h PSA Nitrogen Generator + Carbon Deoxidation Purification Unit Nitrogen oxygen content 1–10 ppm Flow rate 30–1,000 Nm³/h Nitrogen dew point ≤ -60°C PSA Nitrogen Generator + Hydrogenation Deoxidation Purification Unit Nitrogen oxygen content 0.3–10 ppm Flow rate 30–1,000 Nm³/h Nitrogen dew point ≤ -60°C Ammonia Decomposition Hydrogen Generation and Fully Automatic Hydrogen-Nitrogen Ratio Control Unit Hydrogen content optionally adjustable Ratio precision ≤ ±0.5% Flow rate 5–350 Nm³/h Advantages of the Nitrogen Generator Solution (Compared with Externally Purchased Liquid Nitrogen) 1. Continuous and stable gas supply, eliminating the risk of production halts due to gas interruptions; 2. Long-term operating cost only 1/3 to 1/4 of liquid nitrogen; 3. Pressure, purity, and flow rate automatically adjustable, matching the operating conditions of annealing furnaces/melting furnaces; 4. Skid-mounted integrated design, adapted to the dusty and high-temperature environment of copper plants, supporting 24-hour unattended operation. I. Melting and Casting Process (Upward-drawing copper rod, continuous casting, medium-frequency melting) 1. Liquid surface sealing protection for melting furnace 2. Furnace body replacement, furnace washing, purging 3. Nitrogen protection specifically for upward-drawing bare bright copper rod II. Bright Annealing (The largest gas-consuming station in the copper industry) After cold working, copper wire, copper strip, copper pipe & tube, copper busbar, brass/phosphor bronze harden; annealing at 400–650℃ to relieve stress. Without nitrogen protection, the surface becomes black and scale forms. III. Wire Drawing, Copper Foil, and Precision Copper Semis Production 1. Intermediate annealing for heavy/medium/micro drawing 2. Electronic copper foil, ultra-thin copper strip 3. Hollow copper pipe & tube, precision alloy copper IV. Other Supporting Process Applications 1. Sintering of powder metallurgy copper parts 2. Finished product packaging, anti-oxidation storage 3. Hydraulic/pneumatic purging, leak detection Contact Information Li Lili 189 1264 4498 Scan to Register SMM Conference Contact Liu Mingkang 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn