Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

[Enterprise Shutdowns and Holidays, Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Continue to Decline] Order-wise, pre-holiday stockpiling by end-users across various sectors has largely concluded, with overall market trading remaining subdued and zinc oxide demand showing mediocre performance. Looking ahead to next week, the industry is expected to enter a full holiday cycle, with only a few large plants maintaining minimal production during the Chinese New Year period, while the majority of zinc oxide enterprises will gradually suspend operations for the holiday.

In mid-February 2026, the CAAM and the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released data related to the automotive and power battery markets for January 2026. According to analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, the automotive industry overall operated steadily, the passenger vehicle market experienced some decline, the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, and auto exports maintained growth.......SMM compiled relevant data for the automotive market and power battery market in January 2026 for readers' reference. Automotive Sector CAAM: Auto Production and Sales Both Exceeded 2 Million Units in January 2026, Production Edged Up YoY In January, auto production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively, with production up 0.01% YoY , while sales fell 3.2% YoY, and dropped 25.7% and 28.3% MoM respectively. CAAM: China's NEV Production and Sales Reached 1.041 Million and 945,000 Units Respectively in January 2026, Up 2.5% and 0.1% YoY In January, NEV production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, increasing 2.5% and 0.1% YoY respectively , with NEV new car sales accounting for 40.3% of total new car sales. CAAM: Auto Exports Continued Growth in January, NEV Exports Saw Rapid Growth In January, auto exports reached 681,000 units, up 44.9% YoY , but down 9.5% MoM . NEV exports were 302,000 units, doubling YoY and rising 0.5% MoM ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 380,000 units, up 18.8% YoY , but falling 16.1% MoM. Regarding the January auto market, CAAM stated that the automotive industry overall operated steadily, the passenger vehicle market saw some decline, the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, the NEV market operated smoothly, and auto exports maintained growth. The main factors contributing to the market decline were: first, the transition adjustment of the NEV purchase tax policy; second, many local car purchase subsidy policies were at the annual transition period; third, some consumer demand was released in advance during 2025. In the first month of 2026, the state intensively introduced a series of policies benefiting people and enterprises to support people's livelihoods and economic development. Among these, the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" policy transitioned smoothly and orderly, with various regions successively following up and releasing implementation rules; the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" focused on key areas such as the automotive aftermarket service to stimulate market vitality. As supporting policies are refined and implemented, they help stabilize and rebound auto-market demand and keep the industry running smoothly. CAAM stated that the 15th Five-Year Plan period is the critical window for China’s automotive industry to shift to high-quality growth; the sector must keep the market stable while focusing on raising quality and efficiency. Meanwhile, the Passenger Car Association released January passenger-vehicle data. Retail sales reached 1.544 million units, down 13.9% YoY. Given complex market factors, the “low-start, high-finish” annual pattern has been pronounced; January retail has been weak since 2020 (-21% in 2020, +27% in 2021, -5% in 2022, -38% in 2023, +58% in 2024, -12% in 2025), so 2026’s -13.9% sits in the middle of January’s historical wild swings. For NEVs, January passenger NEV retail was 596,000 units, down 20.0% YoY; conventional ICE passenger vehicles sold 948,000 units, down 10%. Exports: 286,000 passenger NEVs shipped, up 103.6% YoY , accounting for 49.6% of total passenger-vehicle exports and 12.5 percentage points higher than last year. Pure-electric made up 65% of NEV exports (67% last year), with A00+A0 pure-electric accounting for 50% (41%). Leveraging scale advantages and expansion needs, more Chinese NEV brands are going global and gaining overseas recognition. Plug-in hybrids comprised 33% of NEV exports (32%), and despite recent external headwinds, self-owned plug-in hybrid exports to developing markets are surging, promising strong prospects. The PCA noted that after the NEV purchase-tax exemption ended in December 2025, the market is in a normal recovery phase. Some consumers front-loaded purchases to capture the incentive, creating a short-term overhang in January—an expected fluctuation, not a long-term trend. January features: (1) Producer exports hit a January record, with passenger NEV exports also at a January high, underscoring rising global competitiveness and robust overseas demand; (2) Post-incentive retail pulled back, yet high-end NEV share rose, showing upgrading consumers favor premium NEVs and aiding high-quality transformation; (3) 2026 new-model launches are steady, and “anti-involution” curbs on disorderly discounting kept January NEV incentives at 10.1%, the fifth consecutive month near 10%, averting volume-driven price wars and preserving order; (4) The historical pattern of ICE outperforming NEVs before Chinese New Year repeated: ICE retail down 10% YoY, pure-electric down 17.0%, range-extender up 0.8%, plug-in hybrid down 31.2%; as the December overhang fades, NEVs should return to growth; (5) January domestic NEV penetration was 38.6%, export penetration 49.6%; (6) January self-owned ICE exports were 250,000 units, up 17% YoY, self-owned NEV exports 226,000, up 115% YoY, with NEVs 47.5% of self-owned exports—especially strong in Europe and Southeast Asia—cementing Chinese NEV brands’ expanding global influence and laying a solid foundation for future export growth. Power Battery Sector In January, China's Power and ESS Battery Sales Totaled 148.8 GWh, Up 85.1% YoY In January, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 148.8 GWh, down 25.4% MoM, but up 85.1% YoY . Specifically, power battery sales were 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of total sales, down 28.6% MoM and up 63.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of total sales, down 17.0% MoM and up 164.0% YoY. In January, China's combined exports of power and ESS batteries were 24.1 GWh, down 26.0% MoM, but up 38.3% YoY, accounting for 16.2% of the monthly sales. Among these, power battery exports were 17.7 GWh, accounting for 73.3% of total exports, down 7.1% MoM and up 59.3% YoY; ESS battery exports were 6.4 GWh, accounting for 26.7% of total exports, down 52.6% MoM and up 1.4% YoY. In January, Domestic Power Battery Installations Totaled 42.0 GWh, Up 8.4% YoY In January, domestic power battery installations were 42.0 GWh, down 57.2% MoM, but up 8.4% YoY . Among these, ternary battery installations were 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, down 48.6% MoM and up 9.6% YoY; LFP battery installations were 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of total installations, down 59.1% MoM and up 8.1% YoY. New Automakers Show Divergent YoY Performance in January, Leap Motor Continues to "Lead", Xiaomi Auto Deliveries Exceed 39,000 Units in January According to statistics from a CLS reporter on the January sales of 15 A/H-share listed automakers, 9 automakers achieved YoY growth, accounting for 60%. The increase in NEV sales and expansion into overseas markets were important drivers for the overall growth of these automakers. SAIC's January sales were 327,000 units, up 23.94% YoY, returning to the top sales position. The NEV sector continued to "gain momentum"; in January 2026, SAIC's NEV sales reached 85,000 units, up 39.7% YoY, placing its sales volume in the industry's leading camp. As for Geely, which ranked second, its January sales were 270,200 units, up 1.29% YoY and 14.08% MoM, making it the only enterprise to achieve positive growth both YoY and MoM. Geely stated, "2026 is a major product year for Geely Auto, with the company launching 1-2 all-new products each quarter, including multiple new hybrid models and a new generation of methanol-hydrogen energy vehicles, aiming to achieve the full-year sales target of 3.45 million units." On the export front, Geely has set its 2026 export sales target at 640,000 units, representing a YoY increase of over 50%. In January's new automaker market, based on the delivery figures released by major automakers, deliveries across the board declined MoM compared to December 2025. Among them, Leap Motor continued to lead in 2026, ranking first among new automakers with 32,059 units delivered, up 27.37% YoY but down 46.94% MoM. To stabilize the market, Leap Motor accelerated its channel expansion, recently adding 85 new stores. As of January 5, the total number of stores nationwide reached 1,068, ensuring more users can conveniently experience Leap Motor’s products and services. On February 2, Leap Motor launched new car purchase benefits for February, including a New Year cash discount of 11,000 yuan, a New Year referral reward of up to 10,000 energy points, and a New Year financial offer with 0% interest for up to 5 years. Li Auto regained momentum in January, ranking second after Leap Motor with 27,668 units delivered, down 7.55% YoY and 37.47% MoM. As of January 31, 2026, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,567,883 units. On February 5, Li Xiang, Chairman of Li Auto, stated on social media that the new Li L9 will be launched in 2026, describing it as "not just a car, but the pioneering work of embodied AI robots." Caixin reporters learned that Li Auto has established an AI company structure, including teams for computing and data, base models, software, and hardware, to build capabilities for creating "silicon-based humans." As of January 31, 2026, Li Auto had 547 retail centers nationwide, covering 159 cities, along with 547 after-sales service and authorized service centers covering 221 cities. The company has put into use 3,966 Li Auto supercharging stations with 21,945 charging piles. NIO delivered a total of 27,182 vehicles in January, up 96.08% YoY but down 43.53% MoM. On the afternoon of February 1, the 60,000th new ES8 was delivered in Guangzhou, taking 134 days to reach this milestone. On the same day, NIO launched a 7-year ultra-low interest purchase plan for the new ET5, ET5T, ES6, and EC6, while the Onvo brand introduced a similar plan for the Onvo L60 and L90, featuring a 0.49% annualized rate, zero financial service fee, and no penalty for early repayment. The Firefly brand launched a 7-year ultra-low-interest car purchase plan, with locked orders receiving the Year of the Horse New Year surprise gift pack. XPeng Motors delivered 20,011 new vehicles in January, down 34.07% YoY and down 46.65% MoM. In January, the XPeng X9 continued to sell well, with 4,219 units delivered in the single month, up 413.9% YoY. By the end of January, its cumulative deliveries reached 51,897 units, making it the fastest MPV model among domestic new automakers to exceed 50,000 units in deliveries. In the same month, the 2026 XPeng X9 all-electric version opened for pre-orders. As the "world's longest-range 5C all-electric large seven-seater," the new model's product strength is fully aligned with the market's hot-selling super range-extended version. From now until the new car's launch, paying a 2,000 yuan deposit can offset 7,000 yuan of the car purchase price. Additionally, for Xiaomi Auto, according to its official Weibo data, January deliveries exceeded 39,000 units, even surpassing Leap Motor, which held the top position among new automakers. On the same day, Xiaomi also released related car purchase benefits for the Xiaomi SU7 and Xiaomi SU7 Ultra. The entire Xiaomi YU7 series can enjoy a "7-year low-interest" offer! A new low monthly payment option is available, with a down payment starting at 99,900 yuan and a minimum monthly payment of less than 2,000 yuan. For orders placed before 24:00 on February 28, a "3-year zero-interest" option is available, with a down payment starting at 74,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 4,961 yuan. At the same time, customers can enjoy up to 66,000 yuan in limited-time car purchase benefits. Regarding store expansion progress, Xiaomi Auto stated that it added 9 new stores in January, bringing the total to 484 stores in 139 cities nationwide; it plans to add 6 new stores in February, expected to cover 2 new cities: Jiangmen and Zhoukou; as of January 31, there were already 270 service outlets nationwide, covering 159 cities. As for BYD, the leader in power batteries, January sales reached 210,051 units, with cumulative new energy sales exceeding 15.3 million. BYD exported a total of 100,482 NEVs in January. It is worth mentioning that there is new news regarding BYD's solid-state batteries. A Cailianshe reporter learned from BYD's investor relations department that BYD is exploring multiple routes in the solid-state battery field, with sulfide solid-state batteries as an important technical direction, achieving breakthroughs in battery life and fast charging, and is expected to achieve small-scale production by 2027. In the sodium-ion battery field, it is already in the development stage of the third-generation product technology platform and has developed sodium-ion battery products with 10,000 cycles; the mass production period will be determined based on actual market and client demand. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, commented that given the recent expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, only some provinces and cities have launched vehicle replacement subsidy policies; coupled with the fact that mid-January last year was the peak sales period before the Chinese New Year, the impact of the holiday timing shift makes the weak retail performance of the auto market in January reasonable. It is anticipated that as the detailed rules for replacement subsidies are gradually refined across various regions, subsidy application channels become more accessible, and the potential car purchase demand before the Chinese New Year is gradually released, the automotive retail market is expected to recover and improve steadily. National and Local Governments Mention Policies to Boost Auto Consumption at the Beginning of 2026; Over 20 Regions Introduce New Trade-in and Car Purchase Subsidy Policies Entering 2026, with the phase-out of national subsidies, multi-pronged policies to stimulate consumption are being intensively rolled out from the national to local levels. According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, have released detailed rules for automotive trade-in, retirement and renewal, or car purchase subsidy programs. On December 31, 2025, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Automotive Trade-in Subsidies in 2026," which officially took effect on January 1, 2026. The rules stipulate that in 2026, a one-time subsidy will be provided to individual consumers who retire gasoline passenger vehicles registered before June 30, 2013, diesel or other fuel passenger vehicles registered before June 30, 2015, or new energy passenger vehicles registered before December 31, 2019, and purchase new energy passenger vehicles included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s "Catalog of NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption" or fuel-powered passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less. For retiring the aforementioned eligible old vehicles and purchasing new energy passenger vehicles, a subsidy equivalent to 12% of the new vehicle’s selling price (including tax, the same hereinafter) will be granted, with the subsidy amount (rounded up to the nearest yuan, the same hereinafter) capped at 20,000 yuan. For retiring the aforementioned eligible fuel-powered passenger vehicles and purchasing fuel-powered passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, a subsidy equivalent to 10% of the new vehicle’s selling price will be granted, with the subsidy amount capped at 15,000 yuan. The Passenger Car Association analyzed that the key words for the 2026 trade-in policy are not "further escalation" but "more sustainable, more balanced, and more regulated." Changing the subsidy amount to a percentage of the vehicle price with an upper limit aims to achieve a more balanced use of subsidies, avoiding situations where subsidies are suspended due to rapid depletion of funds in the early stages. Algorithm adjustments will also have a certain impact on the automotive market structure: the stimulus for low-priced models will be significantly weakened, while models priced between 160,000 and 200,000 yuan will be able to fully utilize the subsidies, making them more favorable for upgrade purchases. Producers need to meet market demand with product competitiveness and financial solutions, emphasizing "long-term value" such as driving range, intelligence, and refueling experience, rather than relying solely on one-time subsidies. The China Automobile Dealers Association also stated that the 2026 automotive trade-in policy strengthens overall coordination and promotes the efficient and direct allocation of subsidy funds. This ensures that limited funds benefit more consumers, particularly meeting the needs of essential demand groups. The scope of benefiting vehicle owners is expected to further expand, with the support focus more clearly targeting the encouragement of retiring old vehicles and purchasing energy-efficient and NEVs. Implementation emphasizes leveraging market mechanisms to make subsidies more aligned with actual needs. The application process is clear and convenient, with improved supervision and management mechanisms. Overall, the policy is expected to continuously stimulate consumption vitality, adding new momentum for the transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development of the automotive industry. Since the beginning of 2026, according to incomplete statistics, multiple provinces and cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Sichuan, and Shandong have successively released detailed rules for the automotive trade-in policy, continuously promoting local automotive consumption: [Shanghai 2026 Automotive Trade-In Policy Implemented, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Shanghai's 2026 automotive trade-in policy has been implemented. The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and seven other departments jointly issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Shanghai's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy," officially launching subsidy activities for vehicle retirement renewal and replacement renewal. Individual consumers can receive a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan. The policy has been in effect since January 1, 2026, with applications accepted until January 10, 2027. [Hubei 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Rules Implemented, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Hubei Provincial Department of Commerce, together with the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Department of Economy and Information Technology, and five other departments, officially issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Hubei's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy." It specifies that special subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing NEVs and small-displacement fuel passenger vehicles through two main methods: retirement renewal and replacement renewal, with a maximum subsidy amount of 20,000 yuan. The policy officially took effect on January 1, 2026. [Xi'an 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Rules Implemented, Up to 20,000 Yuan Subsidy for Retiring Old Vehicles for NEVs] Xi'an released the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Xi'an's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy," clarifying that special subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing new vehicles through two models: retirement renewal and replacement renewal. The policy covers the entire year, with subsidy applications accepted until January 10, 2027, further reducing citizens' car purchase costs and aiding the upgrade of the automotive consumer market. [Beijing 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Starts on February 9, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Beijing's 2026 automotive trade-in subsidy policy has been officially announced. On February 6, reporters learned that Beijing officially released the "Beijing 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Implementation Plan," which is about to launch two types of subsidies: "retirement renewal" and "replacement renewal." The application system will open at 10:00 on February 9, and eligible car purchase consumers can receive a maximum subsidy support of 20,000 yuan. Among them, "retirement and renewal" refers to retiring old vehicles and purchasing new ones. Consumers who purchase passenger NEVs are eligible for a subsidy equivalent to 12% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 20,000 yuan; those who purchase fuel-powered passenger vehicles with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less are eligible for a subsidy equivalent to 10% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan. [Sichuan: Supports Auto Trade-In and Renewal with Maximum Subsidy of 15,000 Yuan] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Finance Department of Sichuan Province issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Policy Measures for Implementing Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In in Sichuan Province in 2026". The notice mentions support for auto trade-in and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer the registration of passenger vehicles under their own names through sale and purchase new passenger NEVs included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Catalog of NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption" or fuel-powered passenger vehicles with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less will receive a one-time subsidy. For those who trade in for new passenger NEVs meeting the aforementioned conditions, a subsidy equivalent to 8% of the new vehicle's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan; for those who trade in for fuel-powered passenger vehicles meeting the aforementioned conditions, a subsidy equivalent to 6% of the new vehicle's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 13,000 yuan. Cui Yan, Deputy Director of Guolian Minsheng Research Institute and Chief Auto Analyst, stated that various regions have successively initiated trade-in subsidies for 2026, and coupled with the successive launch of new vehicles before auto shows after the Chinese New Year, auto sales are expected to stabilize and rebound. When discussing the sales situation in the auto market in January, she said that the overall end-use demand for autos in January was relatively mediocre, primarily due to the fact that local subsidies on the policy side had not yet been officially initiated, and at the same time, there were relatively few new car models launched by automakers on the supply side. "These two factors have now improved. Since mid-to-late January, local governments have successively initiated trade-in subsidies; on the supply side, after the Chinese New Year and before auto shows, automakers will successively launch new vehicles or initiate pre-launch promotional activities for new vehicles. It is expected that auto demand will stabilize and rebound after the Chinese New Year." According to CCTV News, in 2026, the Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with various regions and relevant departments, will further advance the trade-in of consumer goods, focusing on areas such as automobiles to further optimize policy implementation and continuously release consumption potential. Business big data shows that as of February 5, 2026, there have been 335,000 applications for auto trade-in subsidies, driving new vehicle sales of 53.77 billion yuan, effectively promoting the development of the auto market and the recycling of resources, and facilitating industrial quality improvement, upgrading, and green transformation. In January, the average price of new vehicles involved in trade-ins exceeded 160,000 yuan, significantly higher than the previous year; nationwide, 659,000 retired vehicles were recovered, up 50.2% YoY. On February 9, the Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers to study issues related to automobile distribution and consumption. Representatives from relevant automotive industry associations, research institutions, and enterprises attended the meeting. Comrade Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, attended the symposium and engaged in discussions. Sheng Qiuping pointed out that China's ultra-large market has a solid foundation, the automotive consumption chain is long with great potential, and the continuous implementation of policies provides stable support, making it highly promising to expand automobile consumption across the entire chain. In 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to combine policy support with reform and innovation, integrate the efforts of existing measures and incremental policies, optimize the implementation of the automobile trade-in policy, carry out pilot reforms in automobile distribution and consumption, improve industry management systems, and take multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption. On February 12, as the Chinese New Year approached, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Trade-in of Consumer Goods During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday." It mentioned that all regions should strengthen the guarantee of subsidy funds for the trade-in of consumer goods during the Chinese New Year period, leverage the advantages of different channels, ensure the implementation of policies, and better meet consumer demand. In line with the Chinese New Year customs and to enhance the festive atmosphere, consumers are encouraged to go out for shopping. During the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday in 2026 (February 15–23), consumers will be fully supported to apply for subsidies for the trade-in of home appliances, digital and smart products through offline channels. Consumers who purchase new vehicles during the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday can apply for the automobile trade-in subsidy in accordance with policy requirements.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Weakened on Last Trading Day Before Holiday, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Stable Awaiting Post-Holiday Resumption SMM, February 13: SS futures continued to decline and probe lower. On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday, nonferrous metals futures collectively came under pressure and fell, with SS futures also weakening in sync, ultimately closing at 13,860 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the volatility in SS futures and rising high-grade NPI prices ahead of the holiday, most spot traders had already entered the holiday period, logistics and transportation were suspended, transactions were sparse, and prices maintained a stable trend, with the market quietly awaiting the post-holiday resumption. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2604 contract was quoted at 13,765 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 405-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,500 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 14,100 yuan/mt, while in Foshan it was 14,050 yuan/mt; in Wuxi, the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 26,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was also 26,600 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in Wuxi was reported at 25,750 yuan/mt; in both Wuxi and Foshan, the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,800 yuan/mt. On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metals futures, the market showed a relatively stable and fluctuating trend at the beginning of the week, with trading activity experiencing a pullback. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market participants considered avoiding holiday risks, coupled with earlier...

This week, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, but production costs increased, further narrowing the profit margins of stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.58% this week; if calculated using the cost of raw material inventory, the margin reached 1.78%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, SHFE nickel futures were driven higher mid-week by news of nickel mine approvals in Indonesia; high-grade NPI rose in tandem with the movement in SHFE nickel futures and expectations of tight nickel ore supply, which revived trading activity in the market as the Chinese New Year holiday approached—even though stainless steel mills had largely completed their procurement and stockpiling, traders held strong bullish sentiment. As of Friday this week, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 21.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 1,051.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, trading at scrapyards gradually halted as merchants closed for the holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market activity and stable prices. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, this advantage has not yet translated into price movements; although SS futures strengthened on news related to Indonesian nickel mines, the impact on the stainless steel scrap market was limited. Trading in February is expected to remain stagnant, with the key focus after the holiday being the pace of demand recovery; the market overall maintains optimistic expectations. As of Friday this week, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained steady, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. On the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, most stainless steel mills had completed their stockpiling, and trading of high-carbon ferrochrome essentially stalled; given that current prices are already at high levels, they are expected to remain stable before the holiday. As of Friday this week, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, settling at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

As the Chinese New Year holiday is around the corner, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) hereby informs you of our metal price update arrangement during the holiday period to ensure you can make proper arrangements for your work and business.

SMM February 12, the total stainless steel inventory in Wuxi and Foshan markets showed a further buildup trend this week (February 6–12, 2026), decreasing from 868,600 mt on February 5, 2026 to 894,500 mt on February 12, 2026, up 2.98% WoW. This week, social inventory of stainless steel continued to rise. SS futures were driven by news related to Indonesian nickel ore approvals, showing a strengthening and upward trend mid-week, providing some sentiment support to the market. Ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, trading activity gradually cooled, with most traders already on holiday, leading to few actual transactions during the week. Coupled with the gradual suspension of logistics, some public warehouses were in a "inbound-only, no outbound" state, hindering the flow of goods and directly driving a noticeable increase in stainless steel social inventory this week. In terms of the nature of the inventory buildup, stainless steel social inventory typically experiences a seasonal rise during the Chinese New Year holiday period, which aligns with normal market patterns. Moreover, current inventory levels remain in the lower range, and the short-term accumulation has not created supply pressure. Combined with market optimism for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season, market confidence is relatively strong. Overall, this week’s inventory buildup was mainly driven by the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, logistics constraints, and seasonal factors. Despite sluggish short-term transactions and rising inventory, supported by periodic futures strength, low inventory levels, and optimistic post-holiday expectations, overall market confidence remains solid, and the short-term seasonal inventory accumulation has not significantly suppressed the market’s long-term trend.

Next week, the Chinese market will enter the Chinese New Year holiday, and the SHFE will be closed. Overseas markets such as South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia will also have varying degrees of holidays, with exchanges closed, while European and US markets will operate normally. Key economic data to be released include the US December core PCE price index year-on-year, among others. Meanwhile, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. For LME lead, overseas market news was mediocre. After a significant increase of 30,000 mt in LME lead inventory the previous week, inventory changes this week were relatively small, and the LME Cash-3M maintained a large discount of -$47.05/mt. During the Chinese New Year period, overseas European and US markets will trade normally. We need to pay attention to the impact of US Fed officials' speeches on the US dollar index. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,920/mt and $2,040/mt during and after the holiday. For SHFE lead, next week is the Chinese New Year holiday, and SHFE lead will be closed until trading resumes on February 24. Domestically, social inventory had already risen to a nearly five-month high in the week before the holiday. Due to varying holiday schedules among upstream and downstream enterprises during the holiday, lead consumption will be absent, and lead ingot inventory buildup is expected after the holiday. Additionally, we need to monitor the progress of downstream enterprises resuming production after the holiday and the period when lead ingot inventory shifts to destocking. After the holiday, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 16,350 yuan/mt and 16,900 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 16,350–16,700 yuan/mt. After the holiday, downstream lead enterprises will gradually resume production from the first to the second week post-holiday. Considering that downstream enterprises generally maintain some lead ingot inventory, procurement expectations in the first week after the holiday are limited. On the supply side, most secondary lead enterprises plan to resume production in the second week after the holiday, leading to limited market supply in the first week. Primary lead smelters, however, will operate relatively normally and are likely to be the main contributors to lead ingot inventory buildup during the holiday. After the holiday, primary lead transactions are expected to face risks of expanding discounts.

Historically, domestic zinc concentrate production typically declines continuously from December to February each year. There are two main reasons: first, some mines undergo routine shutdowns in winter due to weather conditions; second, the Chinese New Year holiday falls early in the year, during which many mines suspend operations or conduct maintenance. As this year's Chinese New Year holiday approaches, how will these factors specifically affect domestic zinc concentrate supply？