SMM July 21 News: Entering late July, the Chinese tungsten market has entered a phase of consolidating at lows and repairing. After tungsten prices experienced a sustained deep pullback in the prior period, low-priced cargo became hard to find. Upstream mines and holding traders held back from selling and showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transaction prices moved steadily higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotes by leading tungsten enterprises, trading activity at the mine and APT ends has recovered somewhat. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season, downstream end-use demand has yet to visibly recover, leaving the overall market structurally divided, with upstream raw material prices rebounding on firm offers while downstream demand remains persistently weak. A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase prices for the second half of July A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase prices for the second half of July, as follows: According to a Chongyi tungsten enterprise, its long-term contract purchase prices for the second half of July are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Tungsten prices stop falling and see two consecutive days of gains Reviewing the current round of market movements, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to a previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in early-to-mid June, the market continued to weaken. The key drag was persistently sluggish end-use demand, coupled with a period of continued destocking of raw material inventories following previous concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Tungsten prices thus embarked on an overall downward correction from June 17. Compared with the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 represented a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne, or 23.7%, in just over a month. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, phased bottom support has gradually emerged for the tungsten market. Tightening upstream supply and warming sentiment to hold back from selling and hold prices firm helped tungsten prices stop falling and stabilize, and then they saw a rebound over two consecutive days. According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000-415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. At present, low-priced cargo is scarce in the market, and suppliers have generally stopped dumping at low prices. Combined with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices of leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, market confidence has been effectively boosted, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge toward long-term contract prices. Outlook In the short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market in late July will primarily experience a slight rebound and consolidation at lows, with conditions not yet in place for a significant reversal. Any substantial recovery in the market still depends on the arrival of the traditional downstream peak consumption season from August to September, driven by a recovery in end-user orders and the release of concentrated restocking demand that pushes prices upward. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for a recovery in the peak season, and some enterprises may gradually begin pre-stockpiling on dips, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to tungsten market conditions. The tungsten market is now at a critical period of stopping falling and consolidating, with the recovery concentrated in upstream raw materials. Downstream sectors such as tungsten powder and cemented carbide remain deep in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operations and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally restock only to meet rigid demand, and there are no large-scale stockpiling activities, which is insufficient to support a sharp rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on a market recovery after August, and pre-stockpiling on dips is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive marginal upward movement in the industry chain's market conditions ahead of time. Markets outside China, affected by the summer holiday, are experiencing sluggish trading, with high prices but no buyers. Prices continue to consolidate at highs, the risk of a sharp decline is extremely low, and the pattern of divergence between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, focus on four key variables: first, the pace of domestic mine supply release and changes in suppliers' sentiment to hold prices firm; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operation recovery and the intensity of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract quotations; fourth, the volume of scrap tungsten recycling and circulation, and the downstream procurement volume of recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

July 21 , 2026 Customs data shows that in June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports totaled 112,396 mt, up 76.03% MoM and up 379.7% YoY. In January-June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports amounted to 283,400 mt, up 109.76% YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) Aluminum stranded wire (76149000): Monthly exports hit a new high of 96,000 mt For aluminum stranded wire, domestic exports reached 96,385 mt in June, up 91.9% MoM, with a net increase of 46,161 mt from May’s 50,224 mt. This figure far exceeded the upbeat forecast in the May analysis. The share of aluminum stranded wire in total exports climbed further from 78.7% in May to 85.8%, marking the third consecutive month above the 50% threshold and a continued rise, reflecting the concentrated delivery of orders secured during the earlier export profit window. ACSR (76141000): up 17.5% MoM For ACSR, June exports were 16,011 mt, up 17.5% MoM, with a net increase of 2,384 mt from May’s 13,627 mt. ACSR exports rebounded for the second consecutive month, but the growth rate was far behind the explosive growth of aluminum stranded wire, and its share of total exports contracted further from 21.3% in May to 14.2%. Export destination analysis for aluminum stranded wire: The June growth mainly came from two directions. First, volume expansion in traditional markets. South Korea (+16,763 mt) and Japan (+6,682 mt) together contributed 43.8% of the top 15 destinations’ incremental volume. Exports to Hong Kong, China surged 403% MoM, very likely driven by traders shipping goods in bulk via Hong Kong for re-export. Second, the emergence of new markets. Serbia (3,134 mt) and the UAE (2,498 mt) started from zero. Europe and the Middle East began to appear on the export map of aluminum stranded wire. Taiwan, China, although having a base of 99 mt in May, jumped to 2,506 mt in June, surging over 24-fold, which also deserves attention. Export destination analysis for ACSR: In June, ACSR was exported to 58 countries and regions, with export concentration remaining high: the top 10 destinations accounted for 14,385 mt, or 89.8% of total exports. Unlike the broad-based surge in aluminum stranded wire, ACSR exports were still dominated by traditional markets, with Saudi Arabia firmly in first place at 5,371 mt (33.5% share). SMM comments : June aluminum wire exports hit another new monthly record at 112,400 mt. The key driver remained the concentrated delivery in June of massive orders locked in during the earlier window of favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Looking ahead, some remaining orders secured at fixed prices will still be delivered in July, but many producers reported contract cancellations. Aluminum wire exports in July are expected to trend downward; although down sharply from June’s peak, they will remain above normal levels, reflecting the lagged delivery effect of earlier orders. If the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets does not recover significantly in August-September, the export window for aluminum stranded wire will be hard to reopen, and China's aluminum stranded wire exports will return to a normalized range of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Overall, June 2026 is very likely to be the peak month for aluminum wire exports for the full year. H2 exports will undergo a transition from high levels to normal levels. With cumulative exports of 283,000 mt in January-June as the base, H2 exports will gradually return to a normal average of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Full-year exports are expected to reach 420,000-480,000 mt, still representing significant growth over 2025, but the growth rate will slow markedly in H2.

In summary, the import dividends marginally faded in June, while exports experienced a periodical recovery. The narrowing of the import window in July will cause monthly imports to decline significantly, and the annual trade pattern will enter a new phase of reduced imports and export recovery.

According to the latest customs statistics, China’s imports of die-cast zinc alloys reached 2,619.61 metric tons in June 2026, edging down 0.12% month-on-month (compared with 2,622.81 tons in May), a year-on-year drop of 43.38%. The total import volume for January–June stood at 15,878.56 metric tons, representing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 32.93%.

[SMM Analysis]Divergent Trends in H1 Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: Price Spreads Boost Exports While Inverted Profits Drag Down Imports

[June Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Import and Export Analysis: Strong Exports Continue, Imports Continue to Weaken] According to the latest customs data, in June 2026, China imported 2,619.61 mt of die-casting zinc alloy, edging down 0.12% MoM (2,622.81 mt in May), and down 43.38% YoY; from January to June, China's cumulative imports of die-casting zinc alloy reached 15,878.56 mt, down 32.93% YoY.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Imports Post Third Straight Monthly Decline in June 2026, Continually Reshaping Aluminum Alloy Trade Patterns] Currently, the secondary aluminum alloy market remains in the off-season, with downstream order releases limited. End-user procurement stays need-based, overall trading activity is relatively subdued, and the demand side provides insufficient support for price increases. Meanwhile, aluminum prices remain...

[SMM Analysis] Steel Price Gap Narrows as Fluctuations Decrease; Global Markets Face Pressure Price spread moves sideways From the perspective of the price spread model, the China-India slab price spread rebounded from a low level and tightened significantly. Indonesia's significant price cuts led to a sharp contraction of $15/mt in the spread between the two recently. The current level is notably below the quarterly average (-44), largely returning to near the annual average line (-23). For HRC, affected by the new EU quotas, Turkey's stranded sheets & plates flowed back into domestic sales, causing a price collapse. Mainstream HRC export offers plummeted to $585/mt FOB, leading to a significant narrowing of the price difference with China. In addition, the price spread between China and the Black Sea region also narrowed. Due to weak demand and restricted exports, Russia's export offers adjusted downward simultaneously. However, according to SMM survey, despite steel mills' low prices and concessions, actual transactions were relatively limited. Data source: SMM Import Resource Competition Continues, Prices Under Pressure Last week, the Southeast Asian steel market was generally in the doldrums, with regional demand remaining sluggish. Although domestic steel mills in Vietnam sharply lowered HRC prices, buyers still focused on digesting inventories and purchasing as needed, while transactions for Indian and Indonesian materials were limited. For semi-finished products, Asian slab prices continued to decline, with Vietnam’s export offers falling to $490/mt FOB and Indonesian offers around $475–495/mt FOB, while even cheaper Chinese materials added to market pressure. Thai wire rod demand was also weak, with buyers showing low acceptance for 82B wire rod at $570/mt. In Malaysia, downstream procurement remained cautious, and the HRC market continued to move sideways. Overall, high inventories, weak off-season demand, and competition from low-priced imports are expected to continue to put pressure on prices of finished and semi-finished steel products in Southeast Asia. Russian Export Transactions Weaken Last week, Russian HRC export transactions were extremely limited. As domestic demand was moderate, most steel mills had withdrawn from overseas markets. Over the past two weeks, an unsanctioned mill lowered its export price by $10–20/mt to $510–520/mt FOB Black Sea, and after selling a small volume of August-delivery cargoes at $525/mt, it closed its order book due to domestic buying sprees and the weakening Turkish market. Another sanctioned mill, after lowering its price by $5–7/mt, offered September-shipment HRC at $555/mt FOB to Iran/CIS, with the current sales round expected to wrap up soon and no further Black Sea offers planned. Other mills, as domestic demand far exceeded expectations, are expected to suspend export business for the next 1–2 months. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. 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[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Drift Higher, Spot Market Stable in Narrow Range Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher overall in the night session, closing at 23,175 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.65%.