[US-Iran Talks Ease, Pressuring LME Aluminum; SHFE Aluminum Destocking Support Limits Decline] In the absence of new macro bullish catalysts, SHFE aluminum tracked LME aluminum under pressure, but the decline was relatively contained by destocking in China. Going forward, close attention should be paid to: the progress of physical production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum enterprises after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens for navigation; the trajectory of the US dollar after hawkish signals from the US Fed materialize and its transmission to commodities; and whether destocking in China continues to accelerate. Aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]In May, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy hit a nearly five-year low, while exports surged explosively

SMM June 23: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.27%, SHFE nickel rose 0.39%. SHFE tin fell 1.96%, SHFE copper edged down, SHFE lead rose 0.34%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 2.63%, and the cast aluminum main contract rose 0.3%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.16%. HRC fell 0.21%, stainless steel fell 1.46%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.63%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.81%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.62%. LME aluminum fell 1.1%, LME lead rose 0.77%. LME zinc rose 1.32%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel rose 1%. Overnight, in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.85%, and COMEX silver fell 1.71%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.18%, and SHFE silver fell 1.23%. As of 7:16 on June 23, the overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Group: Full-Throttle Efforts to Prepare for Peak Summer, Stabilizing Production and Increasing Output to Cement Coal Supply as Ballast] National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. announced in a statement that, according to forecasts by the National Climate Center, this summer's average temperature across the country will be higher than usual, with more high-temperature days than normal. National Energy Group fully leverages its integrated coal-power-chemical-transport operation advantages, makes all-out efforts across all links, and firmly shoulders the heavy responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak summer. Coal supply is the baseline support for stable electricity generation. The coal segment of National Energy Group is rapidly stabilizing and increasing production, coordinating internal and external resources, and ensuring equipment operation and maintenance, aiming for high-output and stable-supply goals to solidify the foundation of energy supply and fully support regional peak power load demand. [National Energy Group's Installed Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 400 Million kW, Accounting for About 1/10 of National Total] National Energy Group announced that its installed power generation capacity has exceeded 400 million kW, accounting for about one-tenth of the national total, playing a "pillar" role in ensuring stable national power supply and safeguarding energy security. After exceeding 300 million kW in May 2023, its installed capacity entered the 400 million kW level in June 2026, setting a new record among global energy companies for installed generation capacity. Among this, thermal power and wind power installed capacity both remain the world's largest. As of end-May 2026, National Energy Group has put into operation 65 ultra-supercritical coal-fired power units of gigawatt-class, accounting for nearly 30% of all such units in China, with its high-efficiency and clean coal power scale firmly leading the industry; at the same time, the group actively explores new development models such as integrated wind-solar-storage-hydrogen and coordinated generation-grid-load-storage, and has built new-type energy storage with a total capacity of 8.01 million kW / 19.21 million kWh, continuously enhancing its renewable energy consumption and regulation capabilities. (Xinhua) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101. Fed's Goolsbee said: Fed Chairman Walsh's approach is to reduce speculation on interest rates and reduce forward guidance; I quite agree with this approach. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. For the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 26.1%, a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 21.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed tightening. The bank's economists previously expected the Fed to hold rates steady this year. The reason for the revised forecast is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in Fed communication, suggesting the Fed will take a more proactive approach to combating inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains a minority view: only 19% of market investors currently expect three hikes, though that proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: [Starmer Says UK Labour Party New Leader Election to Start on July 9] UK Prime Minister Starmer said on the 22nd, when announcing his resignation, that the election for the new leader of the UK Labour Party will begin on July 9. Starmer said he has asked the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to set a timetable for the leadership election, with the nomination process to start on July 9 and be completed before the parliamentary summer recess. This means the new Labour leader will be in place before Parliament returns in September. (Xinhua) Macro front: Today, data to be released include the preliminary June manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; the preliminary UK June services PMI; the UK June CBI industrial orders balance; the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6; the preliminary US June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs; and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Additionally, watch for: a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; and MSCI's release of its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be placed on the watch list for developed market status. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.33% and Brent down 2.8%. Oil prices opened higher on Monday but then turned lower. Wallstreetcn mentioned that Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on Monday, announcing that the US and Iran have agreed on a mechanism to end military operations in Lebanon and have established a communication channel to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury Department then announced that it would allow Iran to sell oil to international markets within 60 days, as one of the conditions of the memorandum of understanding signed by both sides last week. US Vice President Vance described the first round of negotiations as "very, very smooth." (Wallstreetcn) Furthermore, Iraq's deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday that Iraq plans to gradually restore crude oil production to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day. ANZ Bank expects that in the first four weeks, production will return to about 2 million to 3 million barrels per day. Resumption of production still faces challenges; in Q3 2026, 2 million to 3.5 million barrels per day may be restored, provided the market is stable, while another 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added: "The initial production recovery will mainly come from logistics (transportation), not production. Later stages will depend on upstream production and refinery restarts. A full resumption of production is unlikely this year." (Jinshi Data APP)

[HRC] Today's HRC export price fell $1/mt day-on-day, with transaction prices at $493-502/mt. Futures were weak, and prices in some overseas markets were also low, leaving inquiries and trading activity moderate.

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's SiMn exports in May 2026 stood at 6,188.1 mt, up 40.80% MoM and 35.85% YoY. Total exports from January to May reached 21,248.89 mt, a cumulative increase of 64.50% YoY. In terms of regional trade structure, SiMn exports were mainly destined for Indonesia.

SMM June 22 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with only SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.4%. SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 1.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.84%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc both fell 0.7%, and SHFE copper edged down 0.34%. The most-traded alumina contract fell 0.52%, while the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 6.08%, the most-traded polysilicon contract fell 0.25%, and the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.58%. The most-traded European route container shipping index futures rose 0.11%. In the ferrous metals segment, all except stainless steel rose. Stainless steel rose 0.36%, while hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.6%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 2.24% and coke fell 1.78%. On the overseas market front, as of 11:38, base metals on the LME all rose, with LME nickel leading the gains at 1.23%, LME tin up 0.88%, LME copper up 0.53%, and the other metals showing relatively small fluctuations. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.15%, COMEX silver fell 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 3.25% and SHFE silver fell 5.65%. In addition, the most-traded platinum contract fell 4.77% and the most-traded palladium contract fell 3.51%. As of 11:38 on June 22, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated in the range of 24,495-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan brand mainstream transaction prices were at 24,595-24,890 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 24,425-24,720 yuan/mt. In the morning session, quotations against the SMM average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, while no quotes were offered against the futures market. In the second trading session, quotations for ordinary domestic brands against the 2607 contract were at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt..... Macro front Domestic aspect: [Unchanged for the 13th consecutive month! China's latest LPR quotes released: 3.5% for the over-five-year term and 3% for the one-year term.] China’s June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released on June 22, with both the one-year and over-five-year LPRs unchanged. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the LPRs on June 22, 2026 were: the one-year LPR at 3.0%, and the over-five-year LPR at 3.5%. These LPRs will remain valid until the next LPR release. [During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, cross-regional person trips nationwide are expected to exceed 650 million.] According to the Ministry of Transport, during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21, 2026), the total cross-regional person trips nationwide were expected to be 652.78 million, with a daily average of 217.593 million, flat YoY. (（CCTV News） On the dollar front: As of 11:38 AM, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.88, with markets continuing to monitor developments following the US-Iran talks. US federal funds rate futures extended their decline, indicating a 76% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. On June 19, Citadel Securities released a research note stating that under new Fed Chair Warsh, the Fed has shifted from inertial decision-making to proactive, adaptive policymaking. Citadel Securities warned that the market should not interpret this signal with inertial thinking. Its core assessment: the next move is a rate hike, and that hike is likely imminent. At the same time, the note stressed that the Fed will no longer continue its previous market-coddling approach of "pre-communicating policy paths". This shift holds significant implications for the interest rate market, the US dollar, and the stock market. Citadel Securities set its baseline scenario as three 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next two years, in September 2026, December 2026, and March 2027, and views the July meeting as a "live meeting", meaning action could be taken at any time. The Fed projects that core PCE inflation will average about 90 basis points above the 2% target over 2026-2027. Based on the inflation gap and classic monetary policy rules, Citadel Securities calculates that the policy rate should exceed the neutral rate by 1.5 times the inflation gap, implying an additional 135 basis points of tightening. Assuming a neutral rate of 3%, the target policy rate should fall in the 4.25%–4.50% range, corresponding to exactly three rate hikes. (Wall Street Insights) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 61.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 38.5%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 52.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 22.9%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of Canada's May CPI month-over-month rate, the Eurozone's preliminary June consumer confidence index, and other data. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures to stabilize, improve, and optimize the utilization of foreign investment. ECB President Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament, and Fed Governor Waller delivers welcome remarks at a conference on the international role of the US dollar. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, both oil benchmarks fell together, with US crude down 0.11% and Brent crude down 1.24%. Crude oil prices experienced sharp rises and falls today. Earlier, Trump issued threats again during the negotiations, driving oil prices sharply higher. Subsequently, progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations dragged oil prices down. Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on social media platform X, saying that the first round of high-level US-Iran talks concluded in Burgenstock, Switzerland. The parties agreed to establish a high-level committee. Chief negotiators will report regularly to the high-level committee and lead working groups responsible for nuclear issues, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. The high-level committee agreed on a roadmap aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days. To avoid accidents and miscommunication and ensure the safe passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, communication channels have been established. It was also agreed to set up a de-escalation group to ensure the implementation of the commitment to cease military operations within Lebanese territory. For the rest of the week, technical talks will continue in Burgenstock, discussing all related issues. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Ali Nizar, head of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): Currently, two vessels are loading crude oil at the country’s southern terminal, but more vessels need to enter the Strait of Hormuz for production to continue rising. (Iraq 24 TV) (From Wallstreetcn APP) Iran is shipping large volumes of oil that were previously unable to be exported due to US sanctions, potentially giving it a boost after signing a temporary peace deal with Washington last Wednesday. Shipping data showed that a total of 11 tankers were spotted leaving Iran’s Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman last week, carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude oil. (Bloomberg) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM news on June 22, customs data showed that in May 2026, China's imports of other antimony ores and their concentrates were approximately 10,972.27 mt, edging down MoM from April and remaining above the 10,000 mt mark. Looking at the sources of antimony ore imports, in May, the largest volume came from Thailand, with significant amounts also from Myanmar and Bolivia, and additionally some antimony ore imported from Africa. Market participants noted that recently, as overseas antimony product prices kept falling, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed significantly, making it understandable that antimony ore imports increased.

[Ex-China Premium Collapse vs. Accelerated Domestic Destocking, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure in Short-Term Fluctuations] China side, the accelerating destocking pace is a highlight, but absolute inventory remains in a relatively high range. In the absence of new macro positives, SHFE aluminum follows LME aluminum under pressure, but supported by domestic destocking, the decline is relatively controllable. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to be in the doldrums.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Fundamentals Moderate While Macro Conditions Complex, Short-term Lead Prices to Retrace Some Gains] Recently, the macroeconomic situation outside China has been complex, market risk-averse sentiment has been relatively strong, and maintenance at China's primary lead and secondary lead enterprises has increased...

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.