July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

Hong Kong is further solidifying its position as a major Asian bullion trading hub, with several banks reportedly importing large gold bars ahead of the planned launch of a new central gold clearing system in July. At least four of the 11 banks participating in the new mechanism have asked traders to move 400-ounce gold bars into the city, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The bars meet the London Good Delivery standard, the global benchmark for wholesale physical gold trading. The move suggests that banks are building up physical inventories to support delivery once the clearing system begins operating. The 400-ounce gold bar is the standard format used in London, the world’s largest bullion trading hub. These bars are commonly traded among banks, sovereign entities, and large institutional players. In Asia, however, gold trading is more commonly conducted in smaller kilogram bars, or kilobars. The decision to bring in 400-ounce bars therefore reflects Hong Kong’s intention to align its new clearing system with international bullion market practices, at least at launch. According to people familiar with the preparations, banks need to hold sufficient gold inventories in Hong Kong to facilitate physical delivery when clearing begins. The Role of the New Clearing Company The Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Limited is spearheading the development of this upcoming mechanism. Its board comprises 11 banks, including six international lenders, as well as other industry participants. Some of these lenders are expected to act as clearing banks when the system launches, while others may need more time to build the necessary bullion trading and settlement capabilities. Hong Kong’s Financial Services and Treasury Bureau said the clearing company has been working closely with the market to formulate the framework and rules for the system. Preparatory work has entered its final stage, according to the bureau. Hong Kong’s planned gold clearing system is expected to closely resemble key parts of London’s bullion market infrastructure. One important feature is the use of unallocated accounts. These accounts allow market participants to trade gold without assigning specific physical bars to each transaction. This structure helps improve liquidity and allows for faster, larger-scale settlement. At launch, Hong Kong plans to use the London Good Delivery standard. Longer-term arrangements, including whether the system will expand to other bar formats or delivery standards, are still to be determined. Competition With Singapore Hong Kong’s launch comes as competition intensifies among Asian financial centers seeking a larger role in the global gold market. Singapore has also announced plans to launch its gold clearing mechanism by the end of the year. Its system is expected to align with the London Good Delivery framework for large bars while also supporting delivery and settlement standards for kilobars used by major exchanges in Chicago and Shanghai. By moving first, Hong Kong could gain an advantage in attracting banks, trading houses, and institutional investors seeking more options for bullion trading and settlement in Asia. Both Hong Kong and Singapore are trying to capitalize on strong demand for gold across Asia. Many investors continue to view the precious metal as a long-term store of wealth and a hedge against uncertainty. Gold prices reached record highs earlier this year before retreating as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the market. Despite the pullback, demand for gold infrastructure in Asia remains significant, particularly as investors and financial institutions seek alternatives to traditional Western trading centers. Conclusion The reported import of London-standard 400-ounce gold bars marks a practical step in Hong Kong’s effort to build a deeper and more liquid bullion market. If the clearing system launches as planned in July, it could give Hong Kong a stronger role in regional gold trading by offering market participants a local platform for settlement, delivery, and liquidity. For now, the inventory buildup by participating banks signals that preparations are entering their final stage and that Hong Kong is positioning itself as a more important bridge between Asia’s gold demand and the global bullion market. source： https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/hong-kong-banks-build-gold-inventories-ahead-of-new-bullion-clearing-system-launch

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures Weakness Dragged Down Stainless Steel Scrap Prices; Off-Season Demand Slump Pressured Market This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,350-10,450 yuan/mt; prices of the same specification stainless steel scrap in the Foshan area fell in tandem, with a price range of 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material production cost analysis, the current cost to produce stainless steel entirely using stainless steel scrap is about 14,520.18 yuan/mt, while the cost using high-grade NPI reaches 14,988.98 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a favorable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. During the week, SS futures consolidated weakly, and the weak sentiment in the futures market transmitted to the spot market, driving stainless steel finished product spot prices to also pull back slightly; the decline in the substitute raw material high-grade NPI slowed down, reducing its drag on the market, but the overall atmosphere in the raw material market remained mediocre. Under the influence of the futures-spot linkage, stainless steel scrap prices edged down slightly in tandem. Overall, cost support is difficult to offset the bearish pressure from fundamentals. The market has now entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with end-use demand lacking internal momentum, and the expected production schedules of stainless steel mills pulling back, directly leading to a simultaneous weakening of rigid demand for stainless steel scrap. Meanwhile, news about the supplementary quota for Indonesian nickel ore remains unresolved, and policy uncertainty in the industry chain has been rising, leaving the overall market sentiment cautious and wait-and-see. Although stainless steel scrap still maintains a decent economic advantage over high-grade NPI, providing bottom support for prices, under the dual pressures of weak futures and the off-season…

The European Union has drastically reduced its steel import quota cap by 12 million tonnes, slashing the total limit from 30.5 million tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes. This policy shift heavily impacts Turkey, cutting its hot-rolled coil (HRC) allocation by approximately 60% to 642,295 tonnes and rebar by over 36% to 239,676 tonnes. Additionally, the restriction alters global supply dynamics, forcing around 8.5 million tonnes of East Asian steel to find alternative global markets annually. While European steel prices are expected to rise briefly following the July 1 customs clearance, weak summer demand will likely cap these gains. In the scrap market, tight European domestic supply has pushed dockside delivery prices to €275/tonne, with German delivered prices sitting €10 to €15/tonne higher than Netherlands dockside rates; however, weakened Turkish steel sales will ultimately exert dominant downward pressure on the market. Meanwhile, US export prices have fallen by $30/tonne and US East Coast dockside prices dropped by $15 to $20/gross ton. Although two major Turkish mills temporarily stabilized import prices by heavily restocking 16 cargoes at higher rates, a subsequent purchasing pause is expected to trigger further downward adjustments.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Silver Prices, Consolidation; Spot Silver Parity Transactions Cautious] SMM reported on July 1st: The US Fed's hawkish remarks pushed up rate hike expectations, and silver prices pulled back after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the month, spot silver transactions were sluggish, with downstream participants mainly in a wait-and-see mood. Quotations remained at parity to a small premium.

June 26, at the 2026 SMM (14th) Minor Metal Industry Conference—Antimony Industry Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) and with title sponsorship from Guangxi Yusheng Germanium High-tech Co., Ltd., , Luo Chengcai, General Manager of Hunan Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star Antimony Import & Export Co., Ltd., shared with participants the “Path of Transformation and Development for the Antimony Industry Amid Century-Long Changes.” I. Reshaping the Antimony Industry Landscape Amid Century-Long Changes Policy-driven: Export Controls Trigger Profound Market Fragmentation ►Markets outside China: Rapid Capacity Expansion Driven by High Prices Mine supply growing rapidly: The Santar mine in Myanmar has become a key variable, with monthly production reaching 1,000 mt of metal content and strong supply resilience. Smelting capacity deployment accelerates: Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam are rapidly boosting smelting capacity, with total ex-China capacity already reaching about 40,000 mt/year. Policy-driven: Supply-demand imbalance in the Chinese market Supply side extremely loose: In 2026, imports in the first four months alone have already matched the total for the full year 2025, creating unprecedented supply pressure on the market. Demand side highly competitive: Prices have fallen sharply. Geopolitical shocks: The Middle East war has caused irreversible damage ►Flame retardant industry: Short-term pain Bromine prices surged from 30,000 to 130,000/mt, petrochemical raw material prices jumped over 50%, and poor cost pass-through led to widespread industry losses, with production cuts of around 30%. ►Polyester industry: Under pressure from both costs and production Affected by wild swings in upstream petrochemical raw material prices, the industry's production costs have climbed sharply; with weak end-use demand, it was forced to cut production by about 30%, sharply increasing operating pressure. ►PV glass: Short-term cooling but long-term positive outlook Affected by the cancellation of module export tax rebates and uncertainties in the Indian market, short-term demand has weakened; however, the broader trend of global energy transition remains unchanged, and long-term growth potential persists. II. Opportunities Amid Crisis: New Opportunities for Transformation and Development Solid fundamentals: Consolidation and optimization in traditional sectors ►High-performance flame retardant materials Irreplaceability: Still cannot be effectively replaced in engineering plastics such as ABS and XPS. Market growth: China's annual demand for flame retardants reaches 1.5 million mt, with bromine-antimony flame retardants accounting for 35%, and demand is steadily increasing. ►Polyester industry Core catalyst: Over 90% of polyester units use antimony-based catalysts, securing a solid position. New growth areas: Industrial textiles are growing rapidly in sectors such as medical and new energy, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 10%. ►PV Glass Core Refining Agent: Holding over 80% market share, it delivers high efficiency with controllable costs. Strong Momentum Outside China: Driven by the global energy transition, demand in markets outside China remains robust, with countries such as India and Indonesia building plants on a large scale. Summary: The steady demand structure across the three traditional pillar sectors—flame retardants, polyester, and PV—combined with the continued expansion of emerging markets outside China, forms a solid and reliable foundation for the antimony industry. New Growth Driver: Condensed Matter Batteries, the biggest growth engine going forward ►Technical Pathway: Enterprises such as CATL are planning antimony-based sodium-ion batteries, in which the passenger vehicle segment will use a calcium-antimony composite material as the negative electrode. ►Demand Estimate: CATL has planned 60 GWh of capacity, with 24 GWh allocated to passenger vehicles. Calculated at 1,200 mt of antimony per GWh, annual demand could reach as much as 30,000 mt at full production. This represents a massive potential market. New Growth Driver: Rapid Growth in High-Value Applications ►AI Computing Power: The explosive growth of AI servers and data centers has driven antimony consumption in the semiconductor sector to over 2,000 mt. ►Military Sector: High-purity antimony is a critical material for infrared detection and missile guidance, commanding a price premium of 3 to 5 times. Against a backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, military-related orders surged 80% YoY. ►Lead-Acid Batteries: Used as a lead-antimony alloy in positive electrode grids, antimony significantly enhances battery performance. China's antimony consumption in this segment stands at approximately 13,000–15,000 mt, with global consumption at around 22,000 mt, providing a stable foundation. III. Value Normalization: Future Trends and Strategic Outlook Supply Side: Resource Constraints and Policy Regulation Become the New Normal ►Non-renewable resources and a tight supply are long-term trends China's domestic reserves are depleting and grades are declining, with production falling year by year. Incremental supply from outside China is limited and unstable. ►Domestic production restrictions and resource consolidation are the overriding trends The global static reserve-to-production ratio for antimony is less than 10 years, highlighting its strategic value. Strengthening environmental protection, implementing production restrictions, and promoting resource consolidation are the inevitable path for the nation. Market Mechanisms: Moving Toward Stability and Harmonious Coexistence Conclusions and Outlook • The antimony industry stands at a new historical starting point. Short-term market fluctuations and price pains are the necessary "drastic remedies" during the process of industrial restructuring. • We firmly believe that with the tightening of the supply side, the explosion of emerging demand, and the strategic emphasis at the national level, antimony's strategic value will be fully realized and will eventually return to its intrinsic worth in the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. • Let us join hands and work together to propel the antimony industry toward a new era of stable, balanced, and high-quality development. The antimony industry is bound to have a bright future!

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Intensifies, Magnesium Ingot Market Remains in the Doldrums ] This week, China’s magnesium ingot market drifted lower overall. Fugu and Shenmu 99.90% magnesium ingot quotes were at 15,950-16,050 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt on the week. After the holiday, market pessimism spread; smelters were active in selling, while downstream only made just-in-time procurement. Amid strong supply and weak demand, prices continued to decline gradually. The average FOB price at Tianjin port was $2,365/mt. China’s smelters struggled to hold prices firm, and FOB offers adjusted downward in tandem. Outside China, as the summer break approaches, new orders were scarce, and foreign trade was sluggish. Dolomite cost support was limited. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy weakened in tandem. Weak downstream demand in the off-season dragged on the market. In the short term, magnesium ingot will remain in a weak consolidation.

[SMM Daily Review: Maintenance Expectations Weigh on Demand, NPI Supply-Demand Price Spread Stalemate Hard to Break] Jun 24 - SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.08 MoM, while the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment index was 1.86, down 0.02 MoM.

[US-Iran Talks Ease, Pressuring LME Aluminum; SHFE Aluminum Destocking Support Limits Decline] In the absence of new macro bullish catalysts, SHFE aluminum tracked LME aluminum under pressure, but the decline was relatively contained by destocking in China. Going forward, close attention should be paid to: the progress of physical production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum enterprises after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens for navigation; the trajectory of the US dollar after hawkish signals from the US Fed materialize and its transmission to commodities; and whether destocking in China continues to accelerate. Aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.