Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,934.5/mt and moved sideways around the daily average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it briefly rose to test the $1,940/mt level before weakening again to a low of $1,930/mt. It then rebounded and recovered all losses, touching a high of $1,946/mt before the close and finally settling at $1,945/mt, up $14/mt, or 0.73%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract gapped lower to open at 16,605 yuan/mt. Early in the session, supported by stronger LME lead, it climbed to a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before pulling back and consolidating above the intraday average. It edged up slightly before the close and eventually settled at 16,665 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.15%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries also kept escalating. Three sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration in the US had asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This was said to be the first time the US had clearly restrained Israeli military operations since the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran began. The US made this request partly because of concerns that it could push up global oil prices and trigger large-scale Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. The 2026 draft report on central and local fiscal budgets clarified the total national defense expenditure budget, and Zhang Xiaogang introduced this year’s national defense spending arrangements. In 2026, the national general public budget arranged national defense expenditure of 194 billion yuan, up 6.9% from the previous year’s executed amount, of which central government spending was 191 billion yuan, up 7% from the previous year’s executed amount. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and with delivery approaching, some suppliers shifted cargoes to ship to delivery warehouse, reducing shipment pressure and relatively narrowing discounts. This was mainly reflected in primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with ex-works quotations in mainstream producing areas ranging from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters held prices firm in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted ex-works around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. As arrivals of imported lead increased, however, discounts on individual secondary refined lead quotations widened to 200 yuan/mt ex-works. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, mainly purchasing primary lead, and transactions relatively improved. Inventory: As of March 10, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, flat from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued its accumulating trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Recently, downstream enterprises have still mainly been digesting inventories, with low enthusiasm for procurement and stockpiling. After lead ingot inventories accumulated at medium- and large-scale smelters in Henan and other regions, they were continuously transferred to social warehouses. For secondary refined lead, as scrap battery prices remained firm while lead prices were in the doldrums, smelters showed low enthusiasm for shipments and ramping up operating rates, and discounts in spot secondary refined lead quotations narrowed, with downstream just-in-time procurement tilting toward primary lead. In addition, secondary refined lead will enter delivery as substitutes, coupled with replenishment from imported lead, refined lead social inventory is expected to find it difficult to reverse the short-term trend of continued accumulation, and lead prices remain under pressure.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data; LME Zinc Posted a Bullish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,240.0/mt and dipped to $3,221.0/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward at a slow pace. After entering the night session, it accelerated higher and touched a high above $3,343.0/mt, finally closing up at $3,323.0/mt, up $93/mt, a gain of 2.88%. Trading volume increased to 121,000 lots, while open interest fell by 516 lots to 219,000 lots.

As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, oil industry executives from companies such as ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell issued warnings on Tuesday. They stated that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have severe consequences for global energy supply and prices.

SMM June 17 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with SHFE tin slightly down. SHFE copper rose 0.45%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.02%, while SHFE zinc advanced 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract increased 0.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract climbed 0.64%. Overnight ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.07%, stainless steel down 0.2%, rebar gaining 0.17%, and HRC slightly higher. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.08%, coke increased 0.85%. Overnight overseas market metals saw LME base metals generally rise, with LME copper up 0.52%, LME aluminum gaining 0.56%, LME lead rising 0.8%, LME zinc jumping 1.41%, while LME tin fell 0.44% and LME nickel declined 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold dropped 1.4%; COMEX silver edged up 0.04%. SHFE gold fell 1.37%, SHFE silver decreased 0.08%. As of 8:15 am June 17, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front Domestic: [Notice: MOFCOM to hold press conference on 19th regarding key work in commerce sector] The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 pm on Thursday, June 19, 2025, where its spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and take questions from reporters. [NAFMII convenes symposium on supporting high-quality development of automakers in China's interbank market] NAFMII held a symposium on June 16, 2025, discussing interbank market support for high-quality development of automakers. Representatives from automakers and lead underwriters attended, with the meeting chaired by NAFMII Vice President Zhong Xu. The association presented interbank market support for the automotive industry. Representatives from 9 companies - FAW, SAIC, BAIC Group, BYD, Geely Holding, Great Wall Motor, NIO Group, XPeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group - described challenges faced amid cut-throat competition and proposed suggestions for optimizing financing environment. Lead underwriters conducted on-site matchmaking for automakers' financing needs. Next, NAFMII will implement the Party Central Committee and State Council's strategic deployment on developing new quality productive forces through technological innovation, strengthen bond market system building and product innovation, optimize financial services tailored for the automotive sector, encourage automakers to increase bond financing while maintaining healthy development and avoiding disorderly competition, and actively promote intelligent, high-end, green transformation to advance China's automotive industry toward high-quality development. Cailian Press) [CPCA: 52,000 Pickup Trucks Sold in May, Up 13.6% YoY] According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in May 2025, 51,700 pickup trucks were produced nationwide, up 20.8% compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, 255,000 pickup trucks were produced, up 23.4% YoY. In May 2025, 52,000 pickup trucks were sold in the market, up 13.6% compared to May 2024, and down 8.1% MoM from the previous month, remaining at a high level in the past five years. From January to May 2025, 258,000 pickup trucks were sold, up 18.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. [Goldman Sachs Bullish Again: Global Capital Returns to China, Optimistic About China's "Top 10" Stocks] Kinger Lau, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently released a research report titled "The Return of China's Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment prospects for China's private enterprises are improving. Goldman Sachs has listed China's "Top 10," namely the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on. They are: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. 》Click for details US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.03% overnight, closing at 98.15. The market is focused on the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week. The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching how the Fed views recent data, which generally indicate softening economic activity, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high. Other Currencies: Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) began their annual summit in Canada. With about three weeks left until Trump's deadline for trade agreements, the market remains nervous as agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan have not yet been signed. They will be looking for any progress made in any bilateral talks with the US on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' summit. (Webstock Inc.) Data: Today, data such as the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in June, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, the US monthly import price index for May, the US annual import price index for May, the US monthly retail sales for May, the US monthly core retail sales for May, the US annual retail sales for May, the US monthly retail sales control group associated with GDP for May - seasonally adjusted, the US monthly industrial output for May, the US capacity utilization rate for May, the US monthly manufacturing output for May, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for May, and the US annual industrial output for May - seasonally adjusted, will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Today, 182 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision; US President Trump visited Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.06% and Brent down 2.33%. Market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies in the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The US Navy said on Monday that electronic interference with commercial shipping navigation systems around the Strait of Hormuz had surged in recent days, affecting vessels passing through the area. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate, and fuels, passes through the Strait. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces about 3.3 million bpd of oil and fuels and exports more than 2 million bpd. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the spare capacity of OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. A preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline inventories may have increased. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories increased by about 600,000 barrels in the week ending June 13. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were expected to decrease by about 100,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories were expected to increase by 200,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

On Friday (June 13) local time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that it was prepared to release emergency oil reserves if the crude oil market faced shortages following Israel's attack on Iran. This statement drew criticism from its "rival," the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which claimed that such remarks would only create panic sentiment in the market. The IEA primarily represents some oil-consuming countries, while OPEC represents major oil-producing countries. In recent years, the two have continued to have disagreements on issues such as global oil demand trends and the pace of energy transition. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, stated that the current market supply was sufficient, but the agency was ready to take action if necessary. He added that the IEA's oil security system had 1.2 billion barrels of strategic and emergency oil reserves. In response, Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary General of OPEC, criticized the IEA for repeatedly emphasizing the need to release emergency oil reserves, an unnecessary move that created false alarms and sparked panic sentiment in the market. Al Ghais emphasized that there had been no changes in either crude oil supply or market dynamics, so "there was no need to take unnecessary measures." It is worth mentioning that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the US and its allies coordinated with the IEA to release emergency oil reserves, a move that was also strongly opposed by OPEC at the time. Reviewing the current incident, according to CCTV News, Israel launched a "pre-emptive strike" on nuclear facilities and military targets inside Iran in the early hours of Friday (June 13). Influenced by this news, international oil prices surged significantly, with the main Brent crude oil futures contract rising by 7% to $78.53 per barrel at one point, the highest level since January this year. Shortly before the news was released, the Islamic Republic News Agency of Iran reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned Israel's attack on Iran that day and stated that Iran would take a legitimate and forceful response. These statements led market participants to worry that the situation might escalate further, potentially affecting energy infrastructure in Iran and its neighboring countries, and even leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, JPMorgan Chase wrote in a report that if a larger-scale conflict broke out in the Middle East, leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market could face severe supply disruptions. JPMorgan Chase believed that under extreme geopolitical circumstances, international oil prices could nearly double, rising to levels between $120 and $130. "Oil prices have surged significantly... and future movements will largely depend on whether Iran repeats the 2019 playbook of attacking tankers, pipelines, and critical energy infrastructure," Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a report. In September 2019, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's oil processing facilities in Abqaiq, disrupting 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabia's capacity and causing severe market volatility. There are concerns that a similar "Abqaiq incident" could recur.

SMM News on June 6: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals collectively rose. SHFE copper and SHFE tin both surged over 1%, with SHFE copper up 1.04% and SHFE tin up 1.79%. The remaining metals all rose less than 1%, while the main alumina contract fell 2.91%, recording two consecutive days of decline. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 0.23%, the main silicon metal contract rose 2.1%, and the main polysilicon contract rose 0.35%. The main European container shipping contract fell 4.35%. The ferrous metals series generally rose, with only stainless steel declining by 0.16%. Iron ore rose 0.86%, rebar rose 0.57%, and HRC rose 0.55%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 3.18%, and coke rose 0.67%. In the overseas market, as of 15:08, overseas market base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.09%, LME lead rose 0.58%, and LME zinc rose 0.54%. The remaining metals all dropped slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:08, COMEX gold rose 0.26%, and COMEX silver rose 1.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.15%, and SHFE silver rose 4.49%. The SHFE silver price surged to a record high of 8,855 yuan/kg during the session, marking a new all-time high since its listing. 》8,834! SHFE silver hits new high since listing! Precious metals sector rises over 3%, with Hunan Silver hitting daily limit [SMM Flash News] Market conditions as of 15:08 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [China's Warehousing Index for May was 50.5%, Operating in Expansion Territory for 7 Consecutive Months] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's warehousing index for May today (the 6th). The data changes indicated that warehousing business activities were active, demand maintained growth, and the warehousing industry maintained a stable and improving operational trend. China's warehousing index for May was 50.5%, pulling back 0.2 percentage points MoM, and operating in expansion territory for seven consecutive months. [Cailian Press C50 Wind Vane Index Survey: New Social Financing in May May Increase YoY, M2 YoY Growth Rate Expected to Continue Rebounding] The latest results of Cailian Press's "C50 Wind Vane Index" showed that the median forecast of market institutions for new RMB loans in May was 600 billion yuan, a decrease of 350 billion yuan YoY. The median forecast for new social financing in May was 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 260 billion yuan YoY. Meanwhile, the market expects that with improved liquidity and a low base effect, the M2 YoY growth rate in May may continue to rebound. In terms of prices, the CPI in May may remain relatively stable, while the decline in PPI may continue to widen. On a YoY basis, the median forecast for CPI YoY growth rate in May by market institutions was -0.2%, and the median forecast for PPI YoY growth rate in May was -3.3%. (Cailian Press) ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 6 was 7.1845 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:08, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 98.89. US economic data has repeatedly fallen short of expectations, leading to increased expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in H2. The number of initial jobless claims in the US, seasonally adjusted, for the week ending May 31 was 247,000, significantly higher than the expected 235,000, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 5 last year. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 was 1.904 million, slightly lower than the previous week, remaining above 1.9 million for the second consecutive week. Federal Reserve Governor Cook said on Thursday that she supports maintaining US short-term borrowing costs at the current "moderately restrictive" level as long as the threat of tariffs driving up inflation persists. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that while the extent to which tariffs will drag on economic growth and employment remains unclear, he is more concerned about the short-term impact of tariffs on inflation. Macro side: [Global manufacturing PMI below 50% for three consecutive months, global economy hovering at low levels] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the global manufacturing PMI for May today (6th). The global manufacturing PMI for May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining below 50% for three consecutive months. By region, the manufacturing PMI for the Americas in May was 48.4%, unchanged from the previous month and below 49% for three consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing sector in the Americas continues to be in contraction territory. From the data of major countries, the manufacturing PMI for the US in May was 48.5%, down 0.2 percentage point MoM, declining MoM for four consecutive months. The data changes indicate that under the influence of US tariff hikes, the US manufacturing sector continues to weaken. Today, data such as Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM for April, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production YoY for April, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports MoM for April, France's trade balance for April, the final value of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted QoQ GDP growth rate for Q1, the final value of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted YoY GDP growth rate for Q1, the eurozone's retail sales MoM for April, the eurozone's retail sales YoY for April, Canada's leading indicators MoM for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the US average hourly earnings YoY for May, the change in US private non-farm payrolls for May, the US labor force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, and the Canadian unemployment rate for May will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York, and Patrick Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, spoke about the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 15:08, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with WTI crude down 0.24% and Brent crude down 0.18%. After two consecutive weeks of decline, both benchmark crude oils are expected to record weekly gains this week. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a scheduled phone call with US President Donald Trump. The two heads of state agreed that their respective teams should continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. This has deepened the market's optimistic expectations for economic growth and increased oil demand. Canadian Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly stated that Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are in direct communication. News related to tariff negotiations, as well as data showing the impact of trade uncertainties and US tariffs on the global economy, continue to influence oil price trends. Analysts from BMI, a research arm of Fitch, said in a report on Friday, "The US may increase sanctions on Venezuela to limit its crude oil exports, and the Israel-Palestine situation also poses an upside risk to oil prices. However, weakening oil demand and increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers will deepen the downward pressure on oil prices in the coming quarters." Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has cut the price of its crude oil for Asian buyers in July to the lowest level in nearly two months, but the reduction was smaller than expected. This follows an agreement by eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries to increase July production by 411,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a larger production increase as part of a broader strategy to regain market share and discipline OPEC+ members whose production exceeds their quotas. (Webstock Inc.) SMM Daily Review ► The off-season in June starts with sluggish demand and high stainless steel inventory, with weak trading activity. [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] ► The eurozone's interest rate cut has driven a new upward trend in silver prices, but downstream demand for spot silver remains weak, with limited just-in-time procurement and sluggish trading in the spot market. [SMM Daily Review] SMM Weekly Review ► As the contract rollover approaches, Shanghai spot copper prices are stuck at parity, with caution advised against a further widening of the price spread between futures contracts. [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper Weekly Review] ► Post-holiday, downstream procurement enthusiasm remains weak, and spot prices are in the doldrums. [SMM SiMn Weekly Review] ► The operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises continues to decline, with gradually weakening downstream demand. [SMM Wire and Cable Market Weekly Review]

Recently, International Resources Holding (IRH), an Abu Dhabi-based international resources holding company, decided to acquire a majority stake in a large tin mine located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), further expanding its investment portfolio in critical mineral resources. It is reported that IRH acquired approximately 56% of Alphamin Resources from a subsidiary of Denham Capital, a US private equity fund, for CAD 503 million (approximately US$367 million). Alphamin, listed in Canada, owns the large Bisie tin mine in eastern DRC. In addition to tin, the mine is rich in critical minerals such as tantalum, tungsten, and coltan. The Bisie tin mine officially commenced production in 2019, with two major pits: Mpama North and Mpama South. In 2024, its production exceeded 17,000 mt, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin production. The mine temporarily suspended operations in March this year, causing a brief spike in global tin prices, but has since resumed production. IRH is a subsidiary of International Holding Company (IHC), an international holding company led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE's National Security Advisor and a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, focusing on mining exploration and investment. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan is the brother of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and manages a US$1.5 trillion business empire. In addition to IHC, he also serves as the Chairman of sovereign funds Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), the Chairman of G42, the largest AI company in the Middle East, the Chairman of private investment company Royal Group, and the Chairman of First Abu Dhabi Bank. In 2023, IRH invested US$1.1 billion to acquire the Mopani copper mine in Zambia, officially entering the African mining market. Since then, IRH has continued to seek acquisition opportunities for critical minerals in Africa. Tin, as an important metal resource, is widely used in the chemical, electronics, metallurgical, and new energy industries, among others. Against the backdrop of the global energy transition, major oil-producing countries in the Gulf, including the UAE, are actively promoting economic diversification strategies, with a particular focus on the layout of critical metal resources to secure a favorable position in the global energy transition.

SMM, June 5: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE tin rising by 1.51%. SHFE copper fell slightly. SHFE nickel dropped by 0.29%. SHFE lead increased by 0.54%. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.47%, and SHFE zinc remained flat at 22,380 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose slightly. Overnight, the ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore increasing by 0.5%, stainless steel rising by 0.47%, rebar up by 0.41%, and HRC gaining 0.16%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 1.68%, while coke rose by 0.6%. Overnight, overseas market base metals showed mixed performance, with LME copper rising by 0.16%, LME aluminum increasing by 0.95%, LME lead and LME zinc falling slightly, LME tin gaining 1.65%, and LME nickel dropping by 0.7%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 0.6%; COMEX silver increased by 0.06%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose by 0.45%, and SHFE silver remained flat at 8,447 yuan/kg. As of 8:15 on June 5, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [MIIT Deploys to Promote the Development of the AI Industry and Empower New-type Industrialization] Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a meeting on June 3 to study and promote the ideas and measures for the development of the AI industry and empowering new-type industrialization. The meeting emphasized the need for systematic planning and coordinated promotion to comprehensively implement tasks in strategy, planning, policies, and standards, creating a favorable ecological environment for the development of the AI industry and empowering new-type industrialization, fully stimulating innovation vitality. It is necessary to consolidate the industrial foundation. Strengthen computing power supply, coordinate the layout of general-purpose large models and industry-specific large models, focus on hardware and software adaptation, accelerate the establishment of high-quality industry datasets, and enhance the intelligence level of key products and equipment. It is necessary to shape application advantages. Promote the deployment of large models in key industries of the manufacturing sector, accelerate the refinement of application scenario requirements, accelerate the intelligent upgrading of the entire manufacturing process, and transform production management modes. Cultivate a group of AI-enabled application service providers and accelerate the deployment, application, and iterative upgrading of industry-specific large models. It is necessary to strengthen standard leadership. Coordinate the promotion of AI standardization work, leverage the roles of an effective market and a proactive government, advance standard formulation in a graded, classified, and systematic manner, and effectively leverage the foundational, leading, and supportive roles of standards. It is necessary to expand the industrial ecosystem. Focus on cultivating leading AI enterprises and support the specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative development of small and medium-sized AI enterprises. Improve the AI open-source mechanism, accelerate the construction of high-level AI open-source communities, and create an open and shared open-source ecosystem. Enhance fiscal and tax policy support to guide increased investment from social capital. Continuously expand international cooperation in the artificial intelligence industry. It is essential to balance development and security. Strengthen governance safeguards for security, enhance risk assessment and response, advance breakthroughs in deep synthesis detection technologies, accelerate the formulation of management and service measures for AI ethics, and guide the healthy and orderly development of the industry. (Cailian Press) [National Energy Administration: Organize the First Batch of Pilot Work for New-Type Power System Construction, Encourage Pilot Projects for Next-Generation Coal Power] The National Energy Administration has organized the first batch of pilot work for new-type power system construction. Focusing on cutting-edge directions related to new-type power systems, single-direction pilots will be conducted based on typical projects, while multi-direction comprehensive pilots will be carried out in typical cities to explore new technologies and models for building new-type power systems, aiming to achieve breakthroughs. Priority will be given to key areas, initially focusing on seven directions: grid-forming technology, system-friendly new energy power stations, smart microgrids, synergy between computing power and electricity, virtual power plants, large-scale high-proportion new energy transmission, and next-generation coal power. The approach will be tailored to local conditions, selecting suitable directions for pilot projects based on regional realities and reasonably determining their scale and scope. 》Click for details [CPCA: Preliminary Estimate Shows National Passenger NEV Wholesale Sales at 1.24 Million Units in May, Up 38% YoY] Based on preliminary monthly CPCA data, the national passenger NEV wholesale sales in May are estimated at 1.24 million units, up 38% YoY and 9% MoM. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to May are estimated at 5.22 million units, up 41% YoY. On the US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.48% to 98.79. Supported by a weaker dollar and soft US data, the market grappled with increasing economic uncertainties. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 last month, the lowest since June 2024, while ADP data showed the smallest increase in US private-sector jobs in over two years. All eyes are on Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the US Fed’s next move. On other currencies: In May 2025, the final eurozone composite PMI was revised up to 50.2, higher than the preliminary estimate of 49.5 but slightly below April’s 50.4. Although this marks the fifth consecutive month of expansion, overall growth remained marginal and the weakest since February. Manufacturing was the main driver of output growth, offsetting the first decline in services activity since November 2024. Among the four largest economies in the Eurozone, Italy and Spain achieved robust expansion, France approached stability, while Germany remained in contraction. Inflows of new business continued to decline, and job creation remained mild. The volume of outstanding work decreased at a mild pace. On the price front, input cost inflation slowed to a six-month low, while output charges rose only slightly, marking the weakest growth since October 2024. Meanwhile, business confidence improved for the first time since January 2025. (Huitong Finance) Data: Today, data including the global ANZ commodity price index annual rate for May, Australia's goods and services trade balance for April, Australia's export monthly rate for April, Australia's import monthly rate for April, China's Caixin Services PMI for May, Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for May, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for May, the number of job cuts announced by US companies in May (Challenger report), the European Central Bank's (ECB) main refinancing rate for June, the ECB's deposit facility rate for June, the ECB's marginal lending facility rate for June, the US trade balance for April, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, the number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, Canada's trade balance for April, Canada's IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI for May, Canada's IVEY unadjusted PMI for May, and the global supply chain pressure index for May will be released. Additionally, notable events include: the US Fed releasing the Beige Book on economic conditions; the ECB announcing its interest rate decision; and ECB President Christine Lagarde holding a press conference on monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 1.06% and Brent down 1.1%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpectedly large increases in US gasoline and diesel inventories, OPEC's plan to boost production leading to an expansion in fuel supply, and trade tensions casting a shadow over the energy demand outlook. A report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US gasoline inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels last week, compared to analysts' expectations of a 600,000-barrel increase. Distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, versus the expected 1 million-barrel rise. Crude oil inventories, however, fell by 4.3 million barrels, compared to analysts' forecasts of a 1 million-barrel decline. OPEC oil-producing countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which also weighed on the market. Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by 35% in May, which may make Moscow more resistant to further OPEC production increases, as these moves would put pressure on crude oil prices. Additionally, some production operations in Canada that were shut down due to wildfires resumed on Wednesday. Wildfires have caused the country's production to decrease by approximately 344,000 barrels per day. (Webstock Inc.)

As OPEC+ officially announced the continuation of its above-quota production increase in July, investors in the energy industry began to focus on the ultimate question: When will this round of production increases come to an end? What will be the subsequent impacts? As background, to maintain oil price stability, eight OPEC+ countries led by Saudi Arabia decided in 2023 to voluntarily cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). After discussions, these countries began to lift restrictions at a rate of 137,000 bpd starting from April this year . As the "leading nations" within the organization grew increasingly dissatisfied with members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq for producing above their quotas, the oil production increase policy rapidly entered a "weaponized" state. Including the latest announced production increase in July, the eight OPEC+ countries will continue to lift production restrictions for the third consecutive month at a rate of 411,000 bpd . What will be the next move? Analysts including Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley pointed out in a report on June 2 that OPEC+ is likely to continue increasing production over the next three months , a move that will push oil prices downward. This means that by October this year, the 2.2 million bpd production cuts will be fully reversed. Morgan Stanley analysts stated in the report: "The latest announcement shows that there is little sign of a slowdown in the pace of production increase quotas. The quota increase may create room for Saudi Arabia to increase production, with Kuwait and Algeria also benefiting to some extent." However, it will be difficult for the remaining members of the "Group of Eight" to achieve the same magnitude of production growth due to the quota increase. Morgan Stanley pointed out that OPEC+ only achieved about two-thirds of its planned production increase in May, so this gap will likely persist in June and July. Analysts also indicated that as refineries complete maintenance, crude oil demand will enter a seasonal peak (usually reaching its peak in May), coupled with healthy refining margins stimulating crude oil processing rates, all of which will provide short-term support for oil prices. However, as the impact of US tariff policies gradually emerges and non-OPEC supply accelerates, this support may fade by the end of the year . The report expects that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $57.5 per barrel in the last two quarters of this year, and will further decline to $55 per barrel in the first half of next year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, which also believes that crude oil demand will slow down by the end of the year, expects in its Sunday report that the pace of OPEC+ production increases will only continue until August. The investment bank had previously expected OPEC+ to pause production increases after July. Daan Struyven and other Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the current fundamentals of spot crude oil are relatively tight, and factors such as global economic activity data exceeding expectations and seasonal summer demand support continued production increases. Therefore, by July 6, when the August production level is decided, the extent of the demand slowdown at that time may not be enough to halt the pace of production increases. Goldman Sachs now believes that in the face of production increases from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries and the impact of the global economic slowdown in Q3 this year, OPEC+ will maintain existing capacity quotas unchanged from September , although "the risk of continued production increases still exists." Analysts maintain their forecast for an average Brent crude oil price of $60 per barrel for the remainder of this year, with a further decline to $56 in 2026. Why are oil prices still rising today? As of press time, following OPEC+'s official announcement of July production increase targets last Saturday, Brent crude oil futures jumped nearly 3% on Monday. (Source: TradingView) The core reason for the oil price increase is the drone strike launched by Ukraine against a Russian airbase . Additionally, the market had already priced in the production increase news last week, which also contributed to Monday's price increase. Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, interpreted the situation, saying, "Crude oil trading seems to have suddenly realized the existence of geopolitical risks... Russia is being strategically provoked, and the market should prepare for strong retaliation." Innes also stated that OPEC+, which once had the core mission of defending oil prices, has now shifted to a production-first strategy—weaponizing crude oil to punish quota violators, squeezing US shale oil producers, and currying favor with Washington, all "like dancing on the edge of a fiscal cliff." He pointed out, "If Saudi Arabia is playing the long game, they are betting that the current oil price decline will be the cost of future market control."

SMM News on May 27: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, among domestic market base metals, only SHFE zinc and SHFE tin rose together, with SHFE zinc up 0.61% and SHFE tin up 0.09%. The rest of the metals declined, with SHFE aluminum down 0.57% and SHFE nickel down 0.55%. The fluctuations in the decline of the remaining metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract fell 2.71%, recording a four-day losing streak. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 0.86%, the main polysilicon contract fell 1.16%, and the main silicon metal contract fell 3.63%, hitting a record low of 7,440 yuan/mt during the session. The European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.67%. The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with most drops around 1%. Iron ore fell 1.76%, rebar fell 1.23%, and HRC fell 1.33%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 0.12% and coke fell 0.94%. In the overseas market, as of 15:05, base metals in the overseas market collectively declined, with LME nickel leading the decline at 0.51%. LME aluminum fell 0.49%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. The declines in the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals segment, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell 1.76%, and COMEX silver fell 1.11%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.27%, and SHFE silver fell 0.64%. Market conditions as of 15:05 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial profits of enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 1.4% from January to April, with new momentum industries showing rapid profit growth ] According to NBS data, from January to April, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 2,117.02 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY. Among industrial enterprises above designated size during this period, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 702.28 billion yuan, down 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 1,559.64 billion yuan, up 1.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan achieved a total profit of 542.92 billion yuan, up 2.5% YoY; and private enterprises achieved a total profit of 570.68 billion yuan, up 4.3% YoY. Yu Weining, a statistician from the NBS Department of Industry, interpreted the industrial profit data for January to April 2025: Industrial profits of enterprises above designated size accelerated their recovery from January to April, with new momentum industries showing rapid profit growth. 》Click to view details ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 27 was 7.1876 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar Aspect: As of 15:05, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.17. Neel Kashkari, the 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that as the US government continues to engage in tariff negotiations with multiple governments, significant shifts in US trade and immigration policies have introduced uncertainties for Federal Reserve officials in taking interest rate actions before September. According to CCTV News, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech at a forum in Berlin. Lagarde expressed that the current international monetary system, based on the US dollar, is becoming uncertain, and Europe needs to implement reforms in multiple areas to mitigate the impact of changes in the international order. According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, German Chancellor Merz stated that Germany and other EU countries do not wish to escalate tariff disputes, as tariff hikes would harm German interests. If negotiations between the US and Europe fail to reach a consensus, Germany will have no choice but to retaliate against the US tariff policies. This week, focus on the statements and meeting minutes of Federal Reserve officials, paying attention to the policy signals they release. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro Aspects: Today, initial values for the monthly change in US durable goods orders for April, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for May, the Eurozone Industrial Sentiment Index for May, the final value of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for May, the German June Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, the UK May CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending May 25 will be released. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets showed mixed performance, with US oil down 0.02% and Brent oil up 0.08%. This is due to rising expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will decide to increase production at a meeting later this week. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), said in a report, "Crude oil prices are falling as the market considers the prospect of increased OPEC supply." OPEC+ may finalise July's production at the meeting, with production potentially increasing by 411,000 barrels per day. According to RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Monday that the OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing countries had not yet discussed increasing production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day ahead of the meeting. The organization may finalise production quotas at the ministerial online meeting on May 28. OPEC+ member countries have already agreed to accelerate production increases for the second consecutive month in June. However, US President Trump's decision to extend trade negotiations with the EU until July 9 has alleviated concerns that tariffs might suppress fuel demand, thereby curbing the decline in oil prices. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) stated that Iran has set the official selling price for June light crude oil for Asian buyers at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the average of Oman/Dubai prices. The company set the price for May at a premium of $1.65 per barrel. According to Iranian state media, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on Monday that Iran could survive even without negotiations with the US and despite facing more sanctions. If nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran fail, it could mean that Iran will continue to face sanctions, which will limit Iran's supply and support oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum prices fall, aluminum scrap prices follow suit [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap] ► Aluminum price decline widens, secondary aluminum prices face synchronous pressure [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices] ► Silver prices consolidate, market sentiment remains cautious [SMM Daily Review]