SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

SMM News on June 27: Metal Market: As of the midday close, nearly all domestic base metals futures rose, with SHFE copper up 1.41%, SHFE nickel up 0.73%, SHFE aluminum up 0.83%, SHFE zinc up 1.53%, SHFE tin up 0.76%, and SHFE lead down 0.26%. Additionally, main aluminum casting futures rose 0.38%, main alumina futures climbed 1.06%, lithium carbonate jumped 2.48%, silicon metal rose 0.32%, and polysilicon gained 0.27%. The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 1.85%, rebar up 0.78%, HRC up 0.78%, while stainless steel fell 0.16%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal surged 3.16%, and coke rose 1.77%. Overseas metals were mostly lower as of 11:39, with LME copper down 0.1%, LME nickel down 0.22%, LME zinc unchanged at $2,768/mt, LME tin down 0.44%, LME lead down 0.25%, and LME aluminum down 0.14%. Precious metals saw COMEX gold up 0.28% and COMEX silver up 0.61% as of 11:39; domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.56% and SHFE silver climbed 1.65%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract rose 0.87% to 1,779.2 points. Partial futures market data as of 11:39 on June 27: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 27 Spot & Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from 40 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt, averaging a 10 yuan/mt discount, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous session. The average #1 copper cathode price in Guangdong was 80,070 yuan/mt, up 1,205 yuan/mt, while SX-EW copper averaged 79,965 yuan/mt, up 1,195 yuan/mt. Spot Market: Guangdong inventories declined for the third consecutive day due to limited arrivals and increased outflows. The market is already trading cargoes with next month's invoices, with minimal impact from mid-year settlements... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [NBS: Jan-May Industrial Profits Down 1.1% YoY] NBS data shows profits at China's major industrial enterprises (annual sales ≥20 million yuan) declined 1.1% YoY in January-May 2025. State-owned holding enterprises reported 870.95 billion yuan in profits, down 7.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises earned 2.01707 trillion yuan, down 1.5% YoY; foreign-funded, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved 685.68 billion yuan, up 0.3% YoY; and private enterprises secured 759.25 billion yuan, up 3.4% YoY. Yu Weining, a statistician from the Department of Industry of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to May 2025: During the January-May period, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 2.72 trillion yuan, representing a year-over-year (YoY) decline. The performance presented the following characteristics: multiple factors contributed to the profit decline of industrial enterprises. Gross profits and operating revenues of industrial enterprises maintained growth. The equipment manufacturing sector played a stabilizing role. Breakthroughs in aerospace and marine sectors demonstrated the vitality of high-quality industrial development. The program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins continued to yield results. Profits of private and foreign-funded enterprises maintained growth. In the next phase, it is essential to thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, implement more proactive macro policies, strengthen the domestic market, enhance innovation-driven development, steadily advance high-quality industrial development, and lay a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' profitability. 》Click for details [China's Logistics Market Size Ranks First Globally for 9 Consecutive Years, Exceeding 360 Trillion Yuan for First Time] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released the "China Logistics and Supply Chain Development Report (2024-2025)" today (June 27). According to the report, China's logistics market size has ranked first globally for nine consecutive years, with modern logistics further strengthening its support for the national economy. The report indicates that in 2024, China's total social logistics volume exceeded 360 trillion yuan for the first time, and the annual total revenue of the logistics industry reached 13.8 trillion yuan. By the end of 2024, the number of A-grade logistics enterprises in China surpassed 10,000 for the first time, including over 500 5A-grade enterprises representing the highest domestic standard. The industry is generally transitioning from "logistics" to "supply chain" development. A preliminary national logistics node network has taken shape. A survey of national logistics parks shows that the number of large-scale logistics parks reached 2,769. The People's Bank of China conducted 525.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations. With 161.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the operation resulted in a net injection of 364.7 billion yuan. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1620 yuan per US dollar on June 27. US Dollar Update: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.26. US data showed greater-than-estimated economic contraction in Q1 due to weak consumer spending and tariff-related disruptions. While initial jobless claims declined last week, dwindling job opportunities and corporate reluctance to hire amid economic uncertainty raised risks of a June unemployment rate increase. Markets await Friday's release of US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for further insights into the US Fed's monetary policy outlook. Other currency updates: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the Labour government's payroll tax is causing UK job losses, declining worker incomes, and rising food prices. He cautioned that inflation risks remain "two-sided." Speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference in London, Bailey stated he is "starting to hear more evidence of adjustments through pay and employment" following the £26 billion ($36 billion) employer National Insurance contribution increase that took effect in April. (Hexun Finance) Data releases: Today's releases include US May personal spending month-over-month, US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading, Eurozone June industrial confidence index, Eurozone June economic confidence index, Eurozone June consumer confidence final reading, Japan June Tokyo CPI year-over-year, Japan May unemployment rate, and Canada April seasonally adjusted GDP year-over-year. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver remarks, while 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, will participate in the "Fed Listens" event. Crude oil markets: Both oil futures rose slightly, with WTI crude up 0.48% and Brent crude up 0.46% as of 11:39. US summer driving season is boosting fuel demand. However, oil prices are expected to post weekly losses as the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement holds, easing concerns about Middle East supply risks. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week amid increased refining activity and demand. EIA data showed crude stocks declined by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels in the week ending June 20, exceeding analyst expectations of a 797,000-barrel draw. Iran's Nour News agency reported Thursday that a damaged facility at Phase 14 of the South Pars refinery in Iran's Bushehr province - previously targeted by Israeli strikes - has resumed operations, continuing to alleviate supply concerns. (Webstock Inc.) Spot market overview: ► Inventories decline for 3rd week as suppliers refuse to budge on prices, but downstream buyers resist high prices [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► Rising copper prices suppress consumption, with market demand outlook remaining pessimistic [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► Shanghai zinc: Futures market continues to strengthen while premiums drop significantly [SMM Midday Review] ► [SMM Analysis] Strong fundamentals expected to support further iron ore price gains next week Other metal spot market updates coming soon - please refresh for latest insights

SMM News on June 11: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead declining, by 0.06%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both rose by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum up 1.25% and SHFE zinc up 1.23%. SHFE tin rose by 0.69%, while the fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract closed flat at 2,895 yuan/mt, and the main aluminum casting contract rose by 0.91%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.68%, polysilicon rose by 0.72%, and silicon metal rose by 2.23%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.1%. In the ferrous metals series, prices rose collectively, with iron ore up 1%, rebar up 0.67%, and HRC up 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 1.1%, and coke rose by 1.31%. In the overseas market, as of 15:06, only LME tin declined, by 0.08%, while other metals rose. LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.26% and LME zinc up 1.19%. The fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. In precious metals, as of 15:06, COMEX gold rose by 0.44%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.14%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.56%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.28%. Market conditions as of 15:06 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Announcement] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 13, 2025. Li Yongxia, Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, and Song Junji, Vice Governor of Shandong Province, will introduce the relevant situation of the 2025 Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations and answer questions from reporters. [Average Annual Growth Rate of 14.2% Over 25 Years, China-Africa Trade Volume Exceeds 2 Trillion Yuan] On the occasion of the upcoming Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha, Hunan Province, data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 11 showed that since the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in 2000, the total value of China's imports and exports with Africa has increased from less than 100 billion yuan that year to 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative growth of over 20 times and an average annual growth rate of 14.2%, fully demonstrating the strong vitality of China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. On the same day, the General Administration of Customs also released the 2024 China-Africa Trade Index, which rapidly climbed from a base value of 100 points in 2000 to a new high of 1,056.53 points in 2024. (Xinhua News Agency) The People's Bank of China conducted 164 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan was achieved. ► On June 11, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1815 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:06, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 99.17. Most economists believe that the US Federal Reserve will remain on hold for at least a few months, as the tariff policies of US President Trump may pose a lingering risk of reigniting inflation. The market will closely monitor the US inflation data to be released later on Wednesday. This report may reflect the economic impact of tariffs on price pressures and could potentially determine the trajectory of the US Fed's monetary policy for the remainder of the year. Macro: The World Bank's "Global Economic Prospects" report, released on Tuesday (June 10), clearly stated that global economic growth in 2025 will be only 2.3%, significantly lower than the pre-COVID-19 average and the lowest non-recessionary growth since the 2008 financial crisis. More concerningly, the average annual growth rate of global GDP is projected to be just 2.5% by 2027, marking the slowest pace since the 1960s. The report attributes this bleak outlook to rising trade barriers and "record-high uncertainty." Nearly 70% of economies worldwide are facing downward revisions to their growth forecasts, including the US, Europe, and several emerging market regions. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, vividly compared the situation in an interview, saying, "Uncertainty is like fog on the runway, hindering investment and dimming the economic outlook." This uncertainty not only weighs on global trade but also exerts significant pressure on consumption, investment, and financial market stability. (Huitong Finance) Today, data to be released include China's year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date social financing scale for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date new RMB loans for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US's year-on-year CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year core CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year energy CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8. Additionally, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism. Crude oil: As of 15:06, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.11% and Brent crude oil down by 0.18%. According to CCTV News, on the 10th local time, Russian President Putin signed a decree extending countermeasures against the price cap imposed on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025. Earlier, on December 27, 2022, Putin signed a presidential decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign legal entities and individuals that directly or indirectly use a price cap mechanism in their contracts. This decree took effect on February 1, 2023, and its validity has been extended multiple times. As a major oil-producing country in the world, if Russia significantly reduces its oil exports in the future due to Western price caps, it could lead to an increase in energy prices in some EU countries. For some European countries, such sanctions only harm both sides equally; while others believe that the current price cap is not low enough and does not meet their expectations. For example, countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, which rely heavily on the shipping industry, hope to raise the price cap to around $70 per barrel to alleviate the pressure on local enterprises. However, this is completely opposite to the views of Poland and the Baltic states, where some officials have even proposed setting the cap at $20 per barrel. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, on the other hand, has called for a price cap of no more than $30 per barrel. The EIA released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, significantly raising its forecast for the crude oil market surplus in 2025. Its data shows that global oil inventories increased in the first five months of this year and will continue to grow significantly during the forecast period. The EIA expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 8,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is 4,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The reason for the upward revision in the supply surplus forecast is the decline in oil demand from OECD countries in 2025, as well as the increase in supply growth from OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. Additionally, the EIA emphasized that while no major supply disruptions are expected, oil supply risks still exist. From the inventory perspective, API data released early in the morning showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 370,000 barrels in the week ending June 6. Although crude oil inventories have declined, the 370,000-barrel drop is far below analysts' expectations of 2 million barrels. More concerning is the continuous increase in refined product inventories, with gasoline inventories rising by 3 million barrels and distillate inventories increasing by 3.7 million barrels in the same week. Analysts had previously forecast that distillate inventories would increase by about 800,000 barrels and gasoline inventories by 900,000 barrels last week. The continued significant inventory buildup of gasoline and diesel in the US, exceeding expectations, has exerted downward pressure on oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Rare Earth Prices Decline Slightly, Transactions Remain Stagnant [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review] ► As Delivery Approaches, Spot-Futures Price Spread Narrows, Spot Market Transactions Remain Sluggish [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 4: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals collectively rose, with SHFE tin leading the gains with a 3.14% increase, while the gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 2.17%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55%, the main silicon metal contract rose by 2.9%, and the main polysilicon contract rose by 0.44%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 6.86%. On the ferrous metals series front, prices collectively rose, with stainless steel up by 0.59%, and the gains of other metals all exceeding 1%. Iron ore, rebar, and HRC all rose by more than 1%, with iron ore up by 1.37%, rebar up by 1.57%, and HRC up by 1.61%. Coking coal and coke surged significantly, with coking coal up by 7.19% and coke up by 5.72%. In the overseas market, as of 15:08, overseas market base metals all rose except for LME copper, which fell by 0.05%. LME tin led the gains with a 1.17% increase, while the gains of other metals were all within 1%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:08, COMEX gold rose by 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.17%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.41%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.05%. Market movements as of 15:08 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: [Announcement: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6 regarding economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia, as well as the 9th China-South Asia Expo] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on June 6, 2025 (Friday). Yan Dong, Vice Minister of Commerce, and Liu Yong, Vice Governor of Yunnan Province, will introduce the economic and trade cooperation between China and South Asia, as well as the 9th China-South Asia Expo, and answer questions from reporters. [PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 600 Million Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 215.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan was realized on the day. [PBOC's Stimulus Policy Package Ensures Overall Controllable Market Liquidity in June] Against the backdrop of continued monetary policy efforts, the funding market remained loose, achieving a smooth transition across the month-end. As of the close on June 3, funding rates across all tenors declined. The DR007 weighted average rate, an indicator reflecting liquidity conditions, fell sharply by 11.49 basis points to 1.5496%. Analysts believe that overall market liquidity is controllable. It is expected that with the combined effects of precise reverse repo operations and fiscal expenditures in early June, funding rates are likely to remain low, and sentiment in the bond market may stabilize and rebound. (Cailian Press) ► On June 4, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1886 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:08, the US dollar index fell by 0.12% to 99.15. According to CCTV News, on June 3 local time, the US White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 AM EST on June 4, 2025. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Tuesday that the strong economy gives the US Fed time to assess how tariffs will affect inflation and growth, and he remains open to the possibility of an interest rate cut later this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation resulting from US import tariffs may soon become apparent, but he noted that it will take longer to see the economic slowdown caused by tariffs. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate, Australia's Q1 GDP year-on-year rate, Russia's May SPGI Services PMI, the final value of the UK's May SPGI Services PMI, the change in the US's May ADP employment, Canada's total reserve assets in May, Brazil's May seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US's May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session; 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will attend the "Fed Listens" event; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. Crude oil: As of 15:08, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down 0.39% and Brent crude oil down 0.35%. Pressured by the increase in OPEC+ production and concerns about the global economic outlook overshadowed by tariff tensions, but supported to some extent by concerns about Canadian supply. Analysts are weighing the impact of OPEC+'s production increase and the wildfire situation in Canada on oil market supply. The market still expects the wildfires that have swept across Canada since May to curb supply, despite temporary relief from wet weather. However, analysts at ING said in a client note: "This relief may be short-lived, as the weather is expected to become drier and warmer by the end of the week." Some analysts expect that the reduction in Canadian supply will offset more than half of the production increase planned by OPEC next month. Commenting on the impact of the wildfires, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said, "It is estimated that around 350,000 barrels per day of oil have been affected and shut down." "Against this backdrop, the scale of this supply disruption exceeds three-quarters of the production increase that OPEC+ agreed to add to the market in July." (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum prices rebound, aluminum scrap market adjusts prices differently [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] June 4: Nickel salt prices remain stable ► Rare earths remain at a stalemate upstream and downstream, prices continue to run smoothly [SMM Rare Earths Daily Review] ► Cost-driven, tungsten products such as ammonium paratungstate and tungsten powder continue to rise [SMM Tungsten Daily Review] ► Silver prices fluctuate at highs, downstream cautiously purchases and waits on the sidelines amidst rigid demand [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 3: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally declined, with only SHFE nickel rising, up 0.14%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE tin both fell by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum down 1.12% and SHFE tin down 1.23%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.39%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.33%, the main polysilicon contract fell by 2.65%, and the main silicon metal contract fell by 1.39%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 0.76%. In the ferrous metals series, prices fell collectively, with declines exceeding 1% for all except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell by 0.59%, iron ore fell by 1.14%, rebar fell by 1.18%, and HRC fell by 1.04%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 3.03%, and coke fell by 1.1%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, overseas base metals collectively declined, with LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME nickel all falling by over 1%. LME aluminum fell by 1.05%, LME zinc fell by 1.3%, and LME nickel fell by 1.01%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. In precious metals, as of 15:02, COMEX gold fell by 0.52%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.98%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.4%, and SHFE silver rose by 2.85%. Geopolitical tensions are high, and tariff policies have fluctuated repeatedly. The US manufacturing sector continues to be weak. Market uncertainty remains elevated, and risk-averse sentiment has intensified, driving gold and silver prices higher, with SHFE silver outperforming SHFE gold. 》Precious metals sector surges, Western Mining hits daily limit! After silver prices soar, wait-and-see sentiment prevails in spot market [SMM Flash News] Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Stable demand growth: Total social logistics in China increased by 5.6% YoY from January to April this year] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for the first four months of this year today (June 3). In April, China's logistics sector withstood external shocks and pressures, demonstrating strong resilience and development potential, maintaining an overall stable and improving development trend. From January to April this year, the total social logistics in China reached 115.3 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. [National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce proposes: Resolutely resist "cut-throat competition" primarily in the form of "price wars"] The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce announced that, under the influence of the current industry market conditions, the automobile dealership sector has been severely affected and impacted, facing a series of issues such as increased operating pressures, reduced profitability, high vehicle inventory, and tight working capital, which have had a serious impact on the sustained and healthy development of the industry. Particularly since Q2 this year, amid the impact of a new round of "price wars," the situation faced by automotive dealers across the board has become more severe. To maintain a good, healthy, and fair market competition order and promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry, including the automotive dealership sector, the National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber of Commerce proposes the following initiatives: 1. The entire industry should prioritize the overall goal of achieving high-quality development in China's automotive industry, strictly adhere to the principle of fair competition, and resolutely resist cut-throat competition behaviors primarily in the form of "price wars." 2. Focus on brand image. Prevent frequent adjustments to sales policies and product selling prices from increasing the difficulty of sales for dealers and affecting the brand's image among consumers. 3. Improve the living conditions of automotive dealers. Adhere to the principle of producing based on sales, reasonably set annual production targets for enterprises and sales targets for dealers, refrain from shifting inventory burdens onto dealers or forcing them to purchase vehicles, effectively reduce dealers' inventory levels; rectify the issue of inverted purchase-sale prices, promptly provide rebates to dealers, shorten the payment collection cycle for dealers, reasonably determine the number of test-drive vehicles, and alleviate the pressure on dealers' working capital. 4. Optimize business policies. Reasonably set performance evaluation indicators for dealers, exercise caution in using fines, and avoid coercing dealers to meet corresponding targets through performance evaluations. 5. Improve the network exit mechanism. Do not coerce dealers to exit the network or close stores under the pretext of optimizing network channels, and provide appropriate compensation to dealers who genuinely need to exit the network or close stores. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 3 was 7.1869 RMB per US dollar. US dollar updates: As of 15:02, the US dollar index rose by 0.14% to 98.83. The US core PCE price index for April increased by 2.5% YoY, in line with expectations, and decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the revised prior value of 2.7%, representing the smallest increase in over four years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI for May was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, with the imports sub-index hitting a 16-year low. Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, stated that due to a stable labor market, inflation slightly above target, and an uncertain outlook, the US Fed is closely monitoring a range of data to determine what response measures may be needed. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, expressed that he still believes that after the "dust" of uncertainty brought about by tariff policies settles, the US Fed will be able to reduce short-term borrowing costs. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro updates: Today, data such as the year-on-year rate of Switzerland's CPI for May, the year-on-year rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI for May (unadjusted initial value), the eurozone's unemployment rate for April, the month-on-month revised value of the US's durable goods orders for April, the month-on-month value of the US's factory orders for April, and the US's JOLTs job openings for April will be released. Additionally, South Korea held its presidential election on June 3, with the stock market closed for the day. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange designated 8:55-9:00 on June 3 as the call auction period for all futures and options contracts, with night session trading resuming that evening. Goolsbee, a 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, participated in a Q&A session. Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event. South Korea tentatively scheduled its presidential election for June 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech. South Korea held its presidential election. Crude Oil: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US crude up 0.46% and Brent crude up 0.29%, primarily due to investor concerns about supply and support from a weaker US dollar. ING analysts stated in a report that the oil market surged on Monday amid escalating geopolitical risks and OPEC's production increase falling short of expectations, providing support for oil prices. ING said on Tuesday, "The momentum carried over into the early morning trading today." Both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 3% the previous day, after OPEC maintained its July production increase at 411,000 barrels per day, the same as the previous two months and below market expectations. Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said, "Supported by a weaker US dollar, crude oil prices continue to rise." A wildfire in Alberta, Canada, temporarily halted some oil and natural gas production, potentially reducing supply and exacerbating supply concerns. It is estimated that the Canadian wildfire affected over 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil production. In addition, preliminary survey results released on Monday indicated that US crude oil inventories may have declined last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely rose. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analyst firms was that US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 30. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] June 3: Indonesian MHP prices decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] June 3: Nickel salt prices remain stable ► Stainless steel and raw material prices diverge; short-term high-grade NPI prices may come under pressure [NPI Daily Review] ► Silver prices open higher with a gap after the Dragon Boat Festival; downstream sentiment remains cautious [SMM Daily Review]

[SMM Analysis: Copper Foil Market Shows Stable Supply and Demand, Tariff Impact Not Yet Significantly Transmitted to the Industry] According to SMM, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 71.51% in April 2025, up 0.31 percentage point MoM and 0.60 percentage point YoY...

The US Exempts Certain Goods from "Reciprocal Tariffs" According to Xinhua News Agency, the US Customs and Border Protection announced on the evening of April 11 that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from so-called "reciprocal tariffs." Documents released by the Customs and Border Protection show that these products are excluded from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the government on trading partners. The documents indicate that the exemptions apply to electronic products entering the US after April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" already paid can be refunded. Bloomberg reported that the measure may alleviate the price pressure faced by US consumers to some extent, while benefiting electronics giants including Apple and Samsung Electronics. Financial analyst Hussein Kubesi pointed out that this marks a "180-degree turn" in the US government's tariff policy. Recently, the US government has implemented extensive and erratic tariff policies, causing turmoil in financial markets and drawing criticism from Republican heavyweights, including former Vice President Mike Pence. The First Round of Indirect Negotiations Between the US and Iran Concludes, Both Sides Agree to Continue Talks Next Week According to CCTV News, the first round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US on lifting sanctions and nuclear issues concluded in Oman on the afternoon of April 12. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the talks were conducted in a constructive atmosphere of mutual respect, and both sides conveyed their respective government positions on lifting illegal sanctions against Iran and Iran's peaceful nuclear program through the Omani Foreign Minister. Both sides agreed to continue the talks next week. Additionally, after the indirect negotiations, the heads of the Iranian and US delegations had a brief face-to-face exchange witnessed by the Omani Foreign Minister as they left the meeting venue. According to Global Times citing AFP and other media reports, before the US and Iran held talks in Oman on April 12 on issues including Iran's nuclear program, US President Trump stated on April 11 that he "hopes Iran becomes a great country, but without nuclear weapons." What Lies Ahead for Crude Oil Prices? This week, Trump announced comprehensive tariff measures, intensifying expectations of a global economic recession and dampening crude oil consumption expectations. WTI crude oil fell to a four-year low of $55.12 per barrel. Regarding this week's performance of crude oil futures, Chen Dong, a senior energy and chemical researcher at Baocheng Futures, explained that while the US "reciprocal tariff" policy suppressed global economic growth expectations, OPEC+'s accelerated production increase decision significantly exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of weakening macro and industry factors, both domestic and overseas crude oil futures prices plummeted. Chen Dong believes that the recent sharp decline in crude oil futures prices is due to two factors: first, the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has sparked concerns of a global economic recession, turning macro sentiment pessimistic and causing a sharp decline in risk asset prices; second, eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries recently decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, significantly exceeding market expectations and further weakening already fragile oil prices. He noted that OPEC+'s unexpected production increase is a response to long-term overproduction by Kazakhstan and Iraq. Meanwhile, OPEC+ faces the dilemma of choosing between market share and price stability. Non-OPEC+ supply led by the US is eroding OPEC+'s market share. The EIA expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.44 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. The IEA believes non-OPEC crude oil supply will grow by 1.5 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. Additionally, OPEC expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.01 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. With supply expectations continuing to rebound, the price center of both domestic and overseas crude oil futures is steadily declining. Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher at the trading consulting department of Founder Midterm Futures, stated that US tariff measures have escalated global trade friction, increased the risk of a global economic recession, exacerbated financial market turmoil, and caused a sharp decline in international oil prices. "Affected by US tariff policies, crude oil consumption faces a blow," Sui Xiaoying said. Against the backdrop of OPEC+'s further production increases, global crude oil supply will rebound in 2025. Meanwhile, under the expectation of a global economic recession, crude oil consumption growth will decline. With increased US sanctions, there is a risk of reduced crude oil supply from Iran and Venezuela, potentially alleviating expectations of a crude oil market surplus. The EIA expects the crude oil market to face a supply surplus in H2 2025, with the surplus reaching 640,000 barrels per day in Q4. The IEA expects the surplus to reach 1.1 million barrels per day in Q4 this year, with an annual surplus of 600,000 barrels per day. Additionally, Sui Xiaoying noted that future escalation of the trade war will negatively impact the global economy, further dampening crude oil consumption. After the US announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 and 2026 crude oil demand growth forecasts to 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day, respectively, while Morgan Stanley reduced its H2 2025 crude oil demand growth forecast to 500,000 barrels per day. Yan Lili, a crude oil and asphalt analyst at the New Era Futures Research Institute, stated that this week's EIA monthly report significantly lowered crude oil demand and price forecasts. The EIA expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, down by 400,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, respectively, from last month. Overall, affected by tariff policies, short-term oil price trends are weak but may experience significant fluctuations. US-Iran negotiations are crucial, with the US Treasury pressuring Iran again, and Iran considering a temporary nuclear agreement with the US to buy more negotiation time. If negotiations break down, geopolitical risks may escalate. Chen Dong believes that short-term crude oil futures may continue to decline. Although US President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, this 90-day period is a negotiation phase, and high tariffs may still be implemented after the period ends. Additionally, OPEC+ is entering a production increase cycle. As the summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, it may bring phased support to crude oil futures prices. Looking ahead, Sui Xiaoying stated that US tariff policies will further depress oil prices in the long term. Recent consecutive sharp declines in crude oil have released negative sentiment, and short-term tariff policy trends will continue to dominate market sentiment and oil prices. In the absence of further negative news, oil prices may experience an oversold rebound, but overall upward momentum is limited. In the long term, as Trump's tariff policies and various countries' countermeasures gradually take effect, deteriorating trade conditions will increase the risk of a global economic downturn, potentially leading to a global economic recession, negatively impacting crude oil consumption and further depressing oil prices. Therefore, the overall trend for crude oil remains bearish.

In March, the US Fed continued to hold steady, the US auto tariff was finalized, reciprocal tariffs were imminent, and global financial markets experienced significant volatility. The US stock market plummeted, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices recording their worst monthly performance since December 2022. The US dollar index fell to a five-month low, raising concerns about economic impact. The RMB exchange rate rose to a four-month high. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke through 3,400 points, setting a new high for the year. Domestic commodities fluctuated downward, with the Wen Hua Commodity Index hitting its lowest level since September last year. In January-February, China's package of existing and incremental policies continued to take effect, with rapid growth in industrial services, continued improvement in consumption and investment, and overall stable employment. In the US, February job growth was slightly below expectations, and policy uncertainty tested the resilience of the labor market. Non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 last month, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in January to 4.1%. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with Powell stating that tariff policy is highly uncertain and there is no rush to cut rates. The European Central Bank, as expected, cut rates to 2.5% and left room for further easing. The central bank optimized its operational methods, with the MLF rate policy attribute fading. The economic development momentum improved, and the LPR remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. Domestic futures exchanges expanded the trading scope of QFII and RQFII, further opening up the futures market to high-level internationalization. The number of futures and options products open to foreign investment in China increased to 75. Global commodities generally rose in March, with industrial futures showing strong performance. LME copper rose to a six-month high, with a monthly increase of 3.51%. COMEX copper hit a record high as traders continued speculative buying based on US tariff expectations. US gold futures broke through $3,100, setting a new record high, with a monthly surge of over 10% due to trade tensions and US interest rate prospects. Oil prices bottomed out and rebounded, with NYMEX crude hitting a three-month low at the beginning of the month and Brent crude reaching a six-month low, but US crude futures rose to a one-month high by the end of the month. CBOT soybeans fluctuated significantly due to tariffs, with a monthly decline of 1.07%. The CRB index, which tracks global commodity trends, rose 2.48% in March. Domestic commodities showed significant divergence in March, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. Iron ore hit a two-and-a-half-month low, with a monthly decline of 3.31%. Rebar hit its lowest level since September last year, with a monthly decline of over 5%, as end-use demand recovery fell short of expectations. Non-ferrous metals performed strongly, with SHFE copper hitting its highest level since May 2024, with a monthly increase of over 4%. SHFE tin showed strong performance due to the suspension of operations at Alphamin's Congo mine, with a monthly increase of 10.25%. Precious metals continued to surge, with SHFE gold setting a new record high on the last trading day, with a monthly increase of 8.58%, and SHFE silver hitting its highest level since May 2024, with a monthly increase of 8.32%. Tariff disturbances affected oilseeds, with Dalian soybean meal hitting a two-month low, with a monthly decline of 2.76%, while rapeseed meal initially surged and then pulled back, hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, with a monthly increase of 1.36%. The Wen Hua Commodity Index, which tracks domestic commodity trends, fell 1.86% in March. Weak end-use demand pressured the ferrous metals chain, with coking coal and coke hitting near eight-year lows. In March, downstream construction sites gradually resumed operations, but the pace of resumption was slow, and the recovery of end-use demand fell short of expectations. Real estate companies remained cautious in land acquisition, and the area of real estate starts and construction continued to decline YoY. From a medium and long-term perspective, there is temporarily limited room for imagination in the demand for construction steel. On the supply side, various news about the reduction of crude steel production occasionally disturbed the futures market, but by the end of the month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and pig iron production of 247 steel mills both hit eight-month highs. Therefore, with the policy in a temporary vacuum, the marginal supply and demand of the industry weakened overall, and rebar futures once hit a six-month low, with differentiated impacts on the demand side, and the rebar-coil spread once expanded to 200 yuan. The raw material side was mainly dragged down by the decline in finished product prices, with limited expectations for pig iron production growth, also pressuring steel mills' demand for raw material procurement. In terms of iron ore, after the end of the hurricane impact, overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly, but port inventories declined, and the supply-demand structure was moderate, with a monthly decline of over 3%. After the 11th round of coke price cuts, market expectations for further declines remained, and futures prices fell to near eight-year lows, with a monthly decline of over 6%. Raw material coal mines have not yet revealed expectations for production cuts, and the traffic at Mongolian coal ports remains at a high level. Coking coal supply remains relatively loose, and with low profits for steel mills and losses for coke enterprises, the loose supply-demand pattern for coking coal remains unchanged. By the end of the month, futures prices hit a low of 985 yuan/mt, refreshing the near eight-year low, with a monthly decline of nearly 10%. The two meals showed divergent trends, with rapeseed meal once hitting a nine-month high. In March, the two meal futures showed a weak fluctuating trend, with soybean meal futures performing weaker, with a monthly decline of 2.76%, while rapeseed meal futures were relatively stronger, with a slight monthly increase of 1.36%, marking the fifth consecutive month of slight gains. Although domestic soybean inventories continued to decline in March, the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans increased market supply expectations, with market expectations for April-May imports reaching 10 million mt and 10.65 million mt, far exceeding the same period last year. At the same time, the spot market for soybean meal showed moderate sentiment, with downstream feed enterprises mainly restocking based on rigid demand, and the continuous decline in spot prices also dragged down futures performance. Rising expectations of oversupply pressured the near-month contracts of soybean meal more significantly, while the far-month contracts showed resistance to declines due to tariff policy disturbances. Stimulated by the news of tariff hikes, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated sharply in March, with prices initially surging and then pulling back. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal starting March 20, and rapeseed meal surged to a nine-month high. However, the market lacked further support, and the most-traded contract price fluctuated downward after rising above 2,700. After the rapeseed meal tariff policy was officially implemented, market speculation cooled, and with loose supply in some regions and the rapeseed meal-soybean meal spread at historically low levels, the upward momentum of rapeseed meal prices was limited. The most-traded rapeseed meal 2505 contract fluctuated rangebound below 2,600. The USDA's quarterly grain stocks report released on Monday showed that as of March 1, US corn stocks fell YoY, while soybean and wheat stocks rose YoY. In addition, US farmers are preparing to increase corn planting area by 5% in 2025, reaching the highest level in 12 years, while reducing soybean planting area to the lowest level in five years. Non-ferrous metals surged and then pulled back. In March, the non-ferrous metals sector overall showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with some varieties' price centers moving upward. The external market was turbulent, with some US economic data softening, and the US Fed's policy expectations once turned dovish, with the US dollar index falling to a five-month low, generally boosting metal prices. In addition, the expectations and changes in US tariff policy remained the focus of market attention, especially the US 232 investigation on copper, which drove US copper to new highs, refreshing historical highs, and also boosted SHFE copper, with the most-traded contract hitting a high of 83,320 yuan, refreshing the near ten-month high. Domestically, the domestic economy started smoothly this year, and market expectations for policy benefits were strong, with a warm market atmosphere. Against the backdrop of the traditional peak season of "Golden March," downstream demand showed strong resilience, generally supporting non-ferrous metals. Earlier, copper futures fluctuated significantly, mainly driven by the resonance of supply-demand and macro factors. On the macro front, the US previously announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, which once triggered market expectations that the US might subsequently impose tariffs on copper, which would increase US copper import costs and potentially push up US inflation. US copper prices were significantly stronger than LME and SHFE copper, but at that time, market expectations for the US tariff rate on copper were generally around 10%-15%. Subsequently, the US initiated a 232 investigation on copper, with officials hinting that the US tariff on copper could reach 25%, significantly higher than previous expectations, which would further increase future copper import costs, and the US copper price center continued to move upward, further boosting SHFE copper. On the supply-demand front, since the beginning of the year, domestic copper concentrate TCs turned lower and continued to decline, indicating that ore supply tightness continues, and the tightness has been transmitted to the smelting end. In March, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced related responses, and it is reported that its smelters have taken measures such as production cuts, early and extended overhauls, and unplanned overhauls. There are expectations of reduced domestic refined copper supply, further pushing up copper prices. Downstream demand performed moderately against the backdrop of the peak season, and with increased export momentum, domestic refined copper social inventories once declined. However, with the continuous strengthening of copper prices, downstream showed fear of high prices, and by the end of the month, social inventories stabilized. In addition, with the tariff policy approaching implementation, market uncertainty increased, and US copper prices pulled back from highs at the end of the month, with SHFE copper also correcting. Oil prices fell first and then rose. In March, international oil prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising, with prices hitting new lows at the beginning of the month, then gradually rising, and slightly pulling back at the end of the month. Among them, US oil fell to a low of 65, and rebounded to around 70 by the end of the month, with a slight decrease in monthly trading volume. Brent crude oil continued to bottom out at the beginning of the month, with futures prices falling to around 68, hitting the lowest price in over three years, then fluctuating to recover the monthly losses. Domestic SC crude oil generally followed the external market trend, but the gains at the end of the month were partially erased, with little fluctuation in the market trading center. The main line of international oil market fluctuations in March was OPEC's oil production policy. At the beginning of the month, OPEC announced an increase in oil production from April 1 to maintain oil market stability. Market expectations of sufficient international oil supply triggered a sell-off of Middle East crude, pushing oil prices down. However, starting from mid-month, OPEC released a new compensatory production cut agreement, with the proposed production cut exceeding the planned production increase starting in April, easing market concerns about oil oversupply. The weak US dollar and the decline in US gasoline inventories during the month quickly warmed international oil market sentiment, helping oil prices stabilize. In addition, the US strengthened restrictions on Iranian energy exports in mid-month, raising Middle East geopolitical risks again, stimulating a broad surge in international oil prices. However, due to the US economic slowdown and tariff disputes in March, the international oil price center pulled back again at the end of the month. The chemical sector showed a weak correction. In March, the chemical sector overall corrected, with the chemical index falling over 4.5%, hitting a six-month low. Among them, the two alkalis led the decline, with soda ash falling over 12%, and the main contract falling below 1,400, hitting a new low for the year. Caustic soda continued to search for a bottom, with the main contract falling nearly 14%, filling the May contract rollover gap, and futures prices hitting the 2,500 mark. The rubber sector overall declined, with SHFE rubber and 20# rubber both falling over 6%, and BR rubber falling over 4%. Urea futures bucked the trend, with the main contract rising over 3.5%, but the market corrected with the sector at the end of the month. In March, the chemical sector overall weakened under external market disturbances, and the soda ash and caustic soda markets showed more significant declines due to their own supply-demand imbalances. Among them, the soda ash industry faced heavy oversupply pressure, and terminal glass performance was lukewarm, making it difficult to effectively improve the supply-demand pattern. Alkali plant inventories slightly declined, but inventory pressure remained. The logic of caustic soda supply-demand mismatch was falsified, with increased industry production adding to supply pressure, and terminal alumina continued to decline, overall suppressing industry chain morale. In terms of rubber, domestic rubber production areas began trial cutting in March, with supply expectations growing, while terminal tire companies slowed procurement, increasing rubber industry inventory pressure. During the month, urea units had many sudden overhauls, and some gas units delayed resumption, while spring fertilizer demand was concentrated, with tight supply-demand helping the market to fluctuate warmly.**US Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Powell Says Tariff Policy Highly Uncertain, No Rush to Cut Rates** The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on March 19, as expected, although policymakers indicated they still anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut for the remainder of the year. However, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that they would wait for the Trump administration's policies to become clearer. "We are not in a hurry to take action," Powell said at a press conference following the Fed's latest policy meeting. He noted that uncertainty is "exceptionally high," and policymakers believe that slowing economic growth and rising inflation are at least partly influenced by President Trump's tariffs, which require opposite policy responses. "Our current policy stance is well-positioned to address the risks and uncertainties we face," he said, pointing to strong economic performance and a balanced labour market, with hiring and layoffs both at low levels. "The right thing to do is to wait for the economic situation to become clearer." **China's Economy:** Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on March 17 showed a steady and positive start to the economy in the first two months. From January to February, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.0% YoY, and national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.1% YoY. **Trade Data:** Customs data released on the 7th showed that China's total import and export value of goods trade in the first two months of this year was 6.54 trillion yuan, down 1.2% YoY. Exports reached 3.88 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the same period, up 3.4% YoY, while imports stood at 2.66 trillion yuan, down 7.3% YoY. **Inflation Data:** Data released by the NBS on March 9 showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% MoM and 0.7% YoY in February, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 0.1% MoM and 2.2% YoY. **Financial Data:** Financial data released by the People's Bank of China on March 14 showed that the broad money (M2) balance at the end of February was 320.52 trillion yuan, up 7.0% YoY. In the first two months, yuan-denominated loans increased by 6.14 trillion yuan. The stock of total social financing at the end of February was 417.29 trillion yuan, up 8.2% YoY, while the cumulative increase in total social financing in the first two months was 9.29 trillion yuan, 1.32 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. **Manufacturing Data:** In March, the impact of the Chinese New Year gradually faded, and corporate production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. All three indices continued to rise in expansion territory, indicating that China's economy maintained overall expansion. **Fund Flows:** Domestic commodities saw net fund inflows in March, with precious metals repeatedly hitting record highs and attracting significant capital. SHFE gold and SHFE silver saw inflows of 15.746 billion yuan and 6.205 billion yuan, respectively. SHFE copper also performed well, attracting over 8 billion yuan. As of March 31, the settled funds of the Wenhua Commodity Index stood at 3,054.99 billion yuan, an increase of 18.435 billion yuan from 2,870.64 billion yuan at the end of February. **April Focus:** The "golden March and silver April" period continues, with no shortage of risk events in the financial markets in April. The situation regarding reciprocal tariffs at the beginning of the month will be a market focus. On April 4, the US will release its March non-farm payrolls report, providing new clues for the Fed's monetary policy. On April 10, the agricultural market will see the release of the US Department of Agriculture's April supply and demand report, while China will also release its March inflation data on the same day. On April 14, China will release its March trade data, followed by March macro data and Q1 GDP data on April 16.

[SMM Analysis: How Aluminum Foil Producers Respond to Anti-Dumping Investigation Ruling] According to SMM, some related aluminum foil enterprises have stated that aluminum foil products under the involved codes are still being exported as usual. Meanwhile, these enterprises are also discussing countermeasures internally. If the ruling is officially implemented, they are expected to consider using re-export trade to maintain the current export value. However, they do not rule out the possibility of being cautious about scenarios such as the release of unused capacity for similar products in overseas markets and anti-dumping investigations treating re-export trade countries "equally." Therefore, the enterprises have indicated that they are also preparing for the worst-case scenario of giving up this portion of the export market share, while developing other overseas markets or shifting focus to the domestic market.

According to preliminary statistics from SMM, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip production in 2024 is expected to reach 13.1 million mt, an increase of approximately 692,000 mt, with a growth rate of about 6%.