SMM Flash: Overall, steel export quotations saw relatively small increases today, with most order shipment schedules concentrated in May and June. Recently, as international crude oil prices continued to rise, ocean freight rates increased sharply, and most traders' CIF quotations were too high to secure deals. Meanwhile, according to an SMM survey, taking the Vietnamese market as an example, the CIF prices of supplies from India, Russia, and other sources also rose significantly, and their advantage over local supplies was no longer prominent, resulting in low market acceptance.

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

Faced with a severe energy supply crunch and skyrocketing prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, the Philippine Department of Energy has authorized the temporary use of "dirtier" Euro-II petroleum products, which contain ten times more sulfur than the current Euro-IV standard, specifically for older vehicles, industrial plants, and the shipping sector. This emergency measure follows diesel prices breaching 100 pesos per liter for the first time, a crisis exacerbated by the country's limited refining capacity and the 1998 Oil Deregulation Law. As the region grapples with the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, the Philippines joins neighbors like Vietnam and Thailand in pivoting back to high-emission fuels and coal to ensure domestic energy security amidst the global turmoil.

[SMM Midday Tin Commentary: Improving Macro Sentiment Drove a Rebound in Tin Prices, While Follow-Through in Spot Transactions Remained Limited]

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has driven international oil prices sharply higher, a trend that has deeply unsettled Wall Street. Wall Street is concerned that US inflation could reaccelerate as a result, forcing the US Fed to delay interest rate cuts and even shift its policy direction toward rate hikes. Bank of America revealed that "whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year" has become a key question its clients have frequently asked in recent days. BofA noted that although the possibility of a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out, three conditions would need to be met for one to occur: the labour market remains stable, inflation worsens further, and Powell continues to serve as Fed Chairman.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be tapped again to suppress oil prices, but the reality was far more complex than this statement suggested—the reserve level was already close to the statutory minimum, and physical safety constraints left extremely limited room for any further release.Last week, Bessent said that the US had participated in the largest internationally coordinated SPR release operation to date, totaling 400 million barrels, and warned that, if necessary, the US could once again unilaterally release reserves to stabilize oil prices.

SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.