[SMM Copper Foil July Market Forecast] SMM expects the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises in July 2026 to be 92.15%, up 0.67 percentage points MoM and 14.87 percentage points YoY. Overall shipments in July are expected to increase by 0.79% MoM. The operating rate for lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 91.1%, and for electronic circuit copper foil, 94.24%.

In early July 2026, CAAM and the CPCA sub-council successively released relevant data on the automotive market for June 2026 and H1. CAAM stated that in H1, China's auto industry operated generally steady, with cumulative declines in production and sales narrowing month by month. Market trends showed three key divergences: first, domestic demand was under obvious pressure, with sales dropping by double digits; second, exports exceeded expectations and provided stable support... SMM has compiled the relevant automotive market data for June 2026 and H1 for readers' reference. Automotive CAAM: June Auto Production and Sales Rose MoM; H1 Decline Narrowed Further vs. First 5 Months In June, auto production and sales reached 2.76 million and 2.81 million units, up 5.5% and 6.9% MoM respectively, down 1.2% and 3.2% YoY respectively. From January to June, auto production and sales totaled 14.993 million and 15.017 million units, down 4% and 4.1% YoY respectively, with the declines narrowing further compared to the first five months. CAAM: NEV Production and Sales Posted Steady Growth in June; H1 NEV Sales Accounted for 49.6% of Total New Vehicle Sales In June, NEV production and sales reached 1.598 million and 1.643 million units, up 26% and 23.6% YoY, respectively. NEV new vehicle sales accounted for 58.5% of total new vehicle sales. From January to June, NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% and 7.3% YoY, respectively , with NEV new vehicle sales accounting for 49.6% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: June Auto Exports Surpassed 1 Million Units for First Time in History; NEV Exports Up 1.6 Times YoY In June, auto exports reached 1.037 million units, up 11.6% MoM, up 75.1% YoY, with monthly exports surpassing 1 million units for the first time . In H1, auto exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY. In June, NEV exports were 523,000 units, up 17.2% MoM, up 1.6 times YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 514,000 units, up 6.4% MoM and up 32.7% YoY. In H1, NEV exports totaled 2.355 million units, up 1.2 times YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 2.741 million units, up 35.5% YoY. Regarding the H1 auto market, according to CAAM's analysis, in H1, China's auto industry operated generally steady, with the cumulative declines in production and sales narrowing month by month. Market flows exhibited three major divergences: First, domestic demand was clearly under pressure, with sales falling by double digits; export growth exceeded expectations, providing stable support. Second, the passenger vehicle market performed poorly, edging down slightly; the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, with sales maintaining growth. Third, the transition between old and new growth momentums continued, with the traditional ICE vehicle market shrinking further and NEVs growing steadily. Meanwhile, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market in June. In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China totaled 1.602 million units, down 23.2% YoY and up 6.1% MoM. Cumulative retail sales for the year to date reached 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. China's passenger vehicle market in June 2026 exhibited a trend of recovery characterized by "overall volume under pressure, sequential strengthening, and extreme structural divergence." For passenger NEVs, June retail sales reached 1.007 million units, down 9.4% YoY and up 6.0% MoM; from January to June, retail sales of passenger NEVs totaled 4.704 million units, down 14.0% YoY. In June, retail sales of conventional ICE passenger vehicles were 600,000 units, down 39% YoY and up 6.3% MoM. Notably, sales of conventional hybrid models fell only 7% YoY and rose 24% MoM, an eye-catching performance. As for NEV exports, June passenger NEV exports reached 499,000 units, up 152.7% YoY, up 17.6% MoM , accounting for 56.9% of passenger vehicle exports, up 15.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Of these, pure electric vehicles accounted for 58.7% of NEV exports (63.1% in the same period last year), with the core focus A00- and A0-class pure electric vehicles representing 53.8% of pure electric exports (51.2% in the same period last year). As the scale advantages of Chinese NEVs become evident and market expansion demand grows, an increasing number of Chinese-branded NEV products are going global, with recognition outside China continuing to rise. Specifically, narrowly defined plug-in hybrids accounted for 37.7% of NEV exports (33.4% last year), while extended-range EVs accounted for 3.6% (3.5% last year). Despite recent interference from some external countries, exports of domestic narrowly defined plug-in hybrids to developing countries have surged rapidly, with a bright outlook. The CPCA stated that the core characteristics of the auto market in June were "a collapse in domestic ICE sales, strong dominance of NEVs, and surging exports." The core pressure on the domestic market downturn came from ICE vehicles, whose retail sales fell 39% under the impact of high oil prices. Their market share was 37.2% in June, and the year-on-year decline in ICE volume accounted for 78% of the total reduction in passenger car sales. Among them, retail sales of conventional hybrid models fell 7%, while pure ICE vehicles dropped 42%, further segmenting the ICE vehicle structure. High fuel prices, the consumer shift toward new energy vehicles, and other factors have accelerated the replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles by EVs. The new energy retail penetration rate stayed at a historical high of 62.8% this month. The electrification transition of joint venture brands has sped up, with joint venture new energy car model sales up 45% YoY in June, while internal combustion engine vehicle sales fell 39% YoY. Exports continued to be the industry’s core growth driver. New energy vehicles accounted for a record 57% of exports in June, while the 33% growth rate for internal combustion engine vehicle exports was also very strong, creating a super-strong performance where both new energy and internal combustion engine vehicles are going global at the same time. The current domestic auto market is increasingly defined by a fight for existing market share, with divergence within the industry continuing to intensify. The new energy market bid farewell to all-around growth and has entered a polarized landscape where high-end EVs experience explosive growth while low-end, economy-oriented car models are under pressure, with the county and township markets and entry-level car model segments seeing overly sharp declines. At the same time, the "new car model effect" is becoming short-lived, significantly weakening its ability to boost the market. Pressure on the channel side remains prominent, the pace of passive industry destocking has accelerated, and dealers are generally suffering losses with climbing operational risks. Overall, the MoM market improvement in June was only structural recovery; electrification upgrades and overseas exports have become the core long-term support for industry growth. The characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in June 2026: 1. Overall market under pressure with major structural divergence. The biggest focus is "cold internal combustion engine vehicles, hot battery EVs." The core reason for the domestic retail decline is the "internal combustion engine vehicle collapse," which pushed the new energy retail penetration rate rapidly past 60% to 62.8%, with the pace of electrification replacement exceeding expectations. 2. Mini EVs are under pressure, the A-segment car market is shrinking, and entry-level consumption urgently needs support; the launch of economy EV standards is eagerly awaited. 3. Exports showed explosive growth, with new energy vehicles accounting for 57% of exports (a record high). A new energy and domestic brand-led dual-drive globalization has become the core growth engine. 4. The characteristics of passive destocking are obvious, dealer inventories fell rapidly, listed dealers reported comprehensive losses, and dealers' survival pressure continues to intensify. 5. The high-end breakthrough of domestic brands was prominent, with retail sales for these brands accounting for over 50% in consumer market segments such as 200,000-300,000 yuan, 300,000-400,000 yuan, and above 400,000 yuan. June delivery data for new forces in the auto industry is out, Leap Motor is gaining unstoppable momentum, and how are automakers progressing toward their annual targets? At the beginning of July, several Chinese new force automakers released their June delivery data, with many enterprises reporting dazzling results: In June, Leap Motor continued its unstoppable momentum, delivering 93,376 units globally, up 95% YoY, with cumulative H1 deliveries reaching 356,487 units. According to previous media reports, Leap Motor's full-year 2026 sales target is 1 million units, and its target completion rate now stands at about 35.65%. This year, Leap Motor's new vehicle deliveries have climbed steadily, securing a leading position among new car-making forces with this stellar performance. In July, Leap Motor continued to gain momentum with the launch of its "Summer Deals, Save in the Season" car purchase event. Customers who place orders during the event can receive limited-time benefits worth up to 61,279 yuan, plus four lifetime free warranties and premium services. This generous package aims to provide users with a more hassle-free car ownership experience. As of June 18, 2026, Leap Motor's global cumulative deliveries surpassed 1.5 million units, marking a significant milestone in the brand's development. In June, NIO delivered 40,597 new vehicles, a new monthly high since 2026, up 62.9% YoY. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 21,908 units, up 50.1% YoY; the Ledo brand delivered 11,743 units, up 83.5% YoY; and the Firefly brand delivered 6,946 units, up 76.7% YoY. To date, NIO has cumulatively delivered 1,188,715 new vehicles. In H1 2026, NIO delivered a total of 191,123 new vehicles, hitting a record high, up 67.4% YoY, with deliveries of all three brands reaching record highs in the first half. According to publicly available information, NIO previously stated that it aims to maintain annual sales growth of 40% to 50%. Based on this, its 2026 sales target is 456,000 to 489,000 units. As of now, its full-year sales completion rate is around 39.08% to 41.9%. Meanwhile, as of now, NIO has achieved profitability for two consecutive quarters, entering the third phase of high-quality development. Its multi-brand strategy is steadily progressing, and synergies are driving rapid sales growth. In June, XPeng Motors delivered 40,126 new vehicles, up 15.9% YoY, with Q2 cumulative deliveries reaching 103,295 units. During the same period, the 10,000th XPeng GX rolled off the production line, and global cumulative deliveries of the XPeng X9 exceeded 60,000 units. The first SUV in the MONA series, the XPeng MONA L03, will make its China debut and start pre-sales on July 2. XPeng's product lineup is further enriched, and its global expansion continues to advance. In H1 2026, XPeng Motors delivered 165,977 vehicles, representing a completion rate of around 27.66% to 30.18% against its 2026 sales target of 550,000 to 600,000 units. It is worth mentioning that global cumulative deliveries of the XPeng X9 have now exceeded 60,000 units, setting a new record for the fastest delivery speed of an MPV by a new energy startup. In June, Li Auto delivered 30,895 new vehicles. In H1 2026, Li Auto delivered a total of 193,472 new vehicles. As of June 30, 2026, Li Auto's historical cumulative deliveries reached 1,733,687 units. In March this year, Li Auto's chairman Li Xiang proposed a YoY sales growth of over 20% in 2026, corresponding to a full-year target of 487,600 units. Currently, its H1 delivery completion rate is around 39.68%. In July, the new generation Li Auto L6 will also be officially launched. Xiaomi’s June deliveries continued to exceed 30,000 units, with its H1 sales at around 180,000 units, achieving approximately 32.73% of its sales target of 550,000 units announced in January 2026. Meanwhile, BYD, a globally renowned EV enterprise, sold a total of 403,472 NEVs in June, up 5.46% YoY. Its cumulative production for the year reached 1.8141 million units, down 15.11% YoY, and cumulative sales reached 1.8085 million units, down 15.72% YoY. Among these, passenger vehicle production was 396,400 units and sales were 397,300 units. Notably, in June, BYD’s markets outside China continued to see rapid growth, with overseas sales of passenger vehicles and pickups reaching 174,897 units, up 95% YoY. In H1, BYD’s cumulative sales reached 1,808,511 units, and cumulative NEV sales exceeded 16.9 million units. According to public information, its previously set sales target was between 5 million and 5.5 million units, and its current achievement rate is around 32.88%–36.17%. Looking at the June report cards of BYD and these new force automakers, BYD and Leap Motor stood out: BYD’s sales once again surpassed 400,000 units, while Leap Motor continued to set new delivery records, with over 90,000 global deliveries keeping it firmly in the top spot among new force automakers. Both NIO and XPeng Motors exceeded 40,000 deliveries in June, delivering commendable performances. However, the sales achievements of these automakers still fall short of their annual sales targets. The highest achievement rate is Li Auto’s 39.68%. That said, expectations remain for the September-October peak season in H2, and with the recent rollout of multiple favorable policies for the auto industry, automakers’ subsequent performance is still expected to be promising. Policy side, on July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting the preferential vehicle and vessel tax policies for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs, stating that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving the vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption of vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including range-extended) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will also be abolished; taxpayers who newly acquire or have already acquired such vehicles before this announcement takes effect shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. In addition, on June 29, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance jointly released the "Initiative on Regulating Supplier Payment for Power and ESS Battery Enterprises," which set out norms and initiatives for multiple stages including order confirmation and changes, delivery and acceptance, payment and settlement, and contract duration. After the release of this initiative, enterprises in China's power battery and ESS battery industry chain, including CATL, EVE, and Gotion High-tech, actively responded. The relevant official of the Equipment Industry Section I under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology commented that the 11 key battery enterprises actively responded to the initiative and proposed relevant implementation measures, demonstrating the responsibility and commitment of enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will fully leverage the role of departmental coordination mechanisms, promptly resolve issues in implementation, and take multiple measures to promote the establishment of a collaborative and win-win development ecosystem for the entire industry chain of power batteries and ESS batteries, fostering healthy and sustainable industrial development. Looking ahead to H2, CAAM expects that the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins will continue to be implemented in an orderly manner, and consumption in the automotive aftermarket is expected to see new growth opportunities, with new product supply from enterprises continuously enriched, market prices relatively stable, and the overall economic operation of the industry further improving. At the same time, it must be noted that the external environment is complex and volatile, uncertainties continue to increase, the issue of insufficient domestic demand remains prominent, and industry operations still face significant pressure. It is necessary to stabilize policy expectations, strengthen guidance and regulation, closely monitor changes in the international situation, effectively address risks and challenges, and steadily expand international markets.

This week, finished steel rebounded slightly after consolidating at lows, while coking coal and coke showed overall satisfactory performance. At the start of the week, with no significant changes in fundamentals or news, ferrous metals continued to consolidate at lows; in the second half, market rumors emerged that BHP’s union announced a work stoppage action. Expectations of short-term supply tightness from the potential stoppage, combined with rising energy costs due to Middle East conflicts, drove a rebound in iron ore prices, which in turn lifted ferrous metals; online auctions for coking coal showed mixed results...

In the second half of last year, ahead of the halving of the NEV purchase tax rebate, ternary cathode orders climbed steadily, hitting record highs month after month. At that time, the market generally expected ternary demand growth for 2026 to be within 10%. But the actual results for the first half of this year came in much stronger. According to SMM, domestic ternary cathode production reached 493,000 metric tons in H1 2026, up 40% YoY, while global ternary cathode output reached 611,500 metric tons, up 24% . Meanwhile, CAAM data shows that NEV sales in China (including exports) reached 7.445 million units in H1 2026, up only 7% YoY, with domestic sales actually contracting by 13%. Given such modest growth in vehicle sales, where did the strong performance of ternary cathode come from? The answer lies in two key factors: a rising share of premium vehicle models and a rapid increase in battery capacity per vehicle . The halving of the purchase tax rebate has had a greater impact on low-priced vehicles. For A00-class models priced under RMB 50,000, the exemption was a major selling point—now, buyers face an additional tax payment of several thousand yuan, significantly eroding their cost advantage. In contrast, for mid-to-high-end models priced between RMB 200,000 and 300,000, the RMB 15,000 rebate cap still covers most of the tax, so the actual cost increase perceived by consumers is limited . At the same time, trade-in subsidy rules shifted from a fixed-amount structure to a tiered system based on the new vehicle price—higher-priced purchases yield subsidies closer to the cap, effectively steering consumer demand toward the premium segment . As a result, the share of B-segment, C-segment, and SUVs in China's NEV passenger car mix rose from 68.3% in 2025 to 73.6% in H1 2026—and these are precisely the models that predominantly use ternary battery cells. The rising share of premium models also directly lifted average battery capacity per vehicle . In May, the average battery capacity of BEV passenger cars reached 62 kWh, up 11% year-on-year, while PHEV passenger cars reached 37 kWh, up 37%. While automakers have been proactively increasing battery sizes to meet market demand, the more significant driver has been the compositional shift toward premium vehicles. This explains the apparent paradox: vehicle sales growth has been moderate, yet cathode material demand has surged—the key lies in the increase in battery capacity per unit . Overseas markets also contributed to the growth. European NEV sales rose approximately 30% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supported by local subsidy policies, high oil prices that favor NEVs, and the aggressive expansion of Chinese brands. Given that ternary batteries still account for more than 60% of Europe's NEV passenger car market , leading battery manufacturers serving the European market—such as CATL, EVE, AESC, and LGES—have maintained high procurement volumes of ternary cathode materials from China this year. Another notable feature of this year's production schedule has been its atypical seasonal pattern, largely influenced by raw material price volatility and policy shifts. On the raw material front, pricing between domestic ternary battery manufacturers and cathode producers is generally settled using a M-1 month metal price mechanism. This gives battery makers a strong incentive to build inventories ahead of anticipated price increases . For instance, in January, the SMM average monthly price of lithium hydroxide (coarse grains) surged to RMB 147,100 per ton, but the settlement price referenced the December price of RMB 88,800 per ton. This translated into a cost saving of more than RMB 26,000 per ton of cathode material, which is why production remained robust even during a traditionally slow month. A similar pattern played out in May, when the monthly average lithium hydroxide price rose by about RMB 20,000 per ton from the previous month, prompting another wave of restocking and driving cathode orders beyond expectations. On the policy side, the most significant impact came from the removal of the VAT rebate on ternary cathode exports, which pulled a large volume of export orders forward into Q1, breaking the typical seasonal slowdown. Domestic production in Q1 reached 236,000 metric tons, up 47% YoY. Notably, after the rebate was officially withdrawn, overseas orders did not drop sharply—Q2 still posted 34% YoY growth. This resilience can be attributed to two factors: first, overseas battery makers remain heavily reliant on Chinese cathode suppliers , who offer clear advantages in product quality, stable mass-production capabilities, and cost, making it difficult to switch suppliers in the short term. Second, overseas end-market demand remains solid , with popular models in Europe (Volkswagen ID series, BMW Neue Klasse, Renault, Hyundai IONIQ series, Tesla, etc.) and key models in Japan and Korea (Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Tesla, etc.) continuing to rely on ternary chemistries. With order books full and procurement needs urgent, customers have little room to qualify new suppliers, which has only reinforced existing partnerships. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the upcoming removal of the VAT rebate on lithium battery exports next year is expected to bring some orders forward into 2026. However, the market has already priced this in, and battery manufacturers have ample time to plan their inventory strategies, so a concentrated surge similar to the one seen ahead of the ternary rebate cancellation is unlikely. The purchase tax rebate will remain at the halved level next year and will not be fully phased out until the year after, so there is no additional pull-forward effect for Q4 2026. With orders already exceeding expectations in the first half and battery makers continuing to build inventories, the traditional "Golden September-Silver October" peak may be less pronounced this year. Still, seasonal patterns persist, and the market's inherent restocking momentum remains, so Q4 still warrants attention. SMM currently forecasts: 1.02 million metric tons of domestic ternary cathode production for 2026, up 24% year-on-year; 240,000 metric tons overseas, down 2%; and a global total of 1.26 million metric tons, up 18% .

On the macro front , this week the market revolved around the US-Iran situation and US Fed policy expectations. At the start of the week, the US-Iran conflict escalated again, with rising crude oil driving inflation concerns higher. Coupled with the hawkish Fed meeting minutes, the US dollar and US bond yields strengthened, putting copper prices under pressure. Towards the end of the week, as oil prices pulled back and the possibility of progress in US-Iran talks remained, market sentiment partially recovered, and a weaker US dollar drove a rebound in copper prices. Overall, geopolitical tensions and expectations for Fed interest rate hikes repeatedly disrupted the market, with copper prices showing a pattern of first falling then rebounding, consolidating at highs. Fundamentals side , this week spot supply in China remained tight, arrivals of imported and domestic material were limited, and combined with the impact of weather and transportation, downstream users stockpiled in advance, leading to a significant decline in social inventory. As of July 9, SMM copper inventories in mainstream China regions fell by 34,900 mt WoW to 165,000 mt, while spot premiums and the price spread between futures contracts strengthened simultaneously. On the demand side, downstream purchases increased when copper prices pulled back, but trading weakened again after prices rebounded; overall, it remained dominated by restocking for immediate needs. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, the focus will be on US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. If inflation remains strong, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heating up could weigh on copper prices; the US-Iran situation and transit through the Strait of Hormuz may still bring fluctuations. Fundamentals side, low inventories and tight supply will provide support for prices, but high copper prices will constrain demand improvement. Copper prices are expected to continue moving sideways at highs next week, with the center tilting slightly upward, while attention should be paid to import arrivals and inventory changes after delivery.

ArcelorMittal's Pecém unit in Ceará state, Brazil, has approved the first phase of a project to build a new hot-rolled steel coil production line, with an initial investment of BRL 35 million (US$6.8 million) allocated to engineering studies and project development. According to the Ceará state government, full implementation of the rolling mill could eventually require an investment of around BRL 4.5 billion (US$872 million) and create approximately 3,000 construction-phase jobs. The Pecém plant, which currently produces steel slabs with a nominal capacity of 3 million mt per year, would gain the ability to produce higher-value hot-rolled coils under the plan, though physical construction awaits further board approval after the engineering phase concludes. The project reflects ArcelorMittal's broader strategy of adding downstream value at its Brazilian operations amid rising import competition in the domestic steel market. No firm construction start date has been set.

Japan's Ministry of Finance enacted a Cabinet Order imposing a provisional anti-dumping duty on nickel-added cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip originating from mainland China and Taiwan, effective July 9 through November 8, 2026. The duty rates range from 3.6% to 42.1% depending on the exporting company, with Taiwan's Yieh United Steel securing a comparatively low rate of 3.86% following the preliminary determination. The action follows an investigation launched in July 2025 after Japan's domestic industry alleged material injury from dumped imports. The measure is one of several anti-dumping and safeguard actions taken by importing countries against flat steel products in 2026 as global overcapacity concerns persist. Final duty determination is expected after the provisional period concludes.

Nickel prices continued to consolidate at lows this week. Early week, boosted by weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payrolls data and a weaker US dollar, SHFE nickel once surged to around 128,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, the US dollar index rebounded, weighing on nickel prices and causing a pullback. Late week, driven by a marginal recovery in macro sentiment, SHFE and LME nickel prices rebounded in tandem. Over the whole week, the nickel price center edged up slightly WoW but failed to achieve an effective breakout. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 127,770 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium remained stable at 2,300 yuan/mt this week, while discounts for mainstream electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot trading was relatively active as prices continued to consolidate at low levels, with strong downstream sentiment for point-price purchases. On the macro front, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, which cooled market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and weakened the US dollar. Subsequently, the market entered a wait-and-see period ahead of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, with limited willingness for capital participation, preventing nickel prices from achieving an effective breakout. Geopolitically, US-Iran tensions escalated again this week. US officials stated that Iran recently fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury revoked exemptions for Iranian oil sales, and the US military launched strong strikes against Iran. Navigation risks in Hormuz increased again, and Iran was reported to have shipped out over 10 million barrels of crude oil within 24 hours. Although Trump stated he did not believe war would break out again, the conflict continued to spill over. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, destocking 1,000 mt WoW. Social inventory in China was about 126,000 mt, destocking roughly 4,000 mt WoW. Given the sustained drop in nickel prices recently, a sentiment-driven repair rebound is expected next week. However, market expectations for quota replenishment in H2 continue to brew, limiting upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt next week.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices of hot-rolled coils and other sheets & plates dropped day-on-day by $1-2/mt, with transaction prices for hot-rolled coils at $488-495/mt. Recently, the yuan's appreciation momentum slowed down, prices pulled back slightly within the week, overall demand outside China showed no significant improvement, and export order-taking remained sluggish.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 6–10, 2026. Weak nickel prices and soft off-season demand drag the benchmark contract down RMB 310/mt, breaking below the RMB 14,500/mt support level in the week of July 6–10.