[SMM Nickel Flash] June 22 – Today's sharp decline in futures brought short-term sentiment pressure, but high-grade NPI prices still showed resilience. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market intensified, and short-term market conditions maintained a volatile pattern of high-level stalemate and divergent trading activity.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Bullish and Bearish Views Polarize, Nickel Iron Bid-Ask Spread Widens Significantly] Jun 22 news, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment index stood at 2.72, down 0.07 MoM, while high-grade NPI downstream sentiment index was 1.9, down 0.03 MoM.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Slightly Recover but Struggle to Rise This week, stainless steel prices and production costs moved up together, slightly expanding steel mill profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs stood at 2.31%, while that based on inventory raw material costs was 2.59%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Driven by both the sharp rise in SS futures and the gradual release of downstream procurement demand during the week, high-grade NPI prices moved up accordingly. Market expectations for further price increases remain relatively strong, with a notable willingness to hold prices firm. In the near term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 9 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,149.5 yuan/nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, scrap prices edged up this week, bolstered by the combined boost from stronger futures, rising finished steel prices, and the recovery of high-grade NPI, with evident cost support. However, the market has entered the traditional off-season, with frequent production cuts at steel mills weakening demand expectations. Additionally, tax invoice issues have constrained trading activity. While short-term positives have supported firmer prices, under the dual pressures of weak off-season demand and industry pain points, further upside will struggle, and there is a risk of a pullback. As of this Friday, prices of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with latest quotations at around 10,550 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. Despite recent news of power supply tightness in the Mengxi region of Inner Mongolia, the impact on local high-carbon ferrochrome production...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures and Raw Material Linkage Boost Stainless Steel Scrap Market, Off-Season Pressure Limits Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt; in Foshan, the price of the same specification stainless steel scrap also edged up, with a price range of 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,701.1 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reached 15,168.67 yuan/mt, maintaining a considerable cost price spread. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. Recovering macro sentiment during the week drove SS futures higher, with the positive momentum in futures transmitting to the spot market and driving spot prices for stainless steel products higher. Meanwhile, purchasing activity in the high-grade NPI market picked up, lifting raw material prices. Futures, steel products, and alternative raw materials formed a linked boost, pushing stainless steel scrap prices higher this week. Although the rise in high-grade NPI prices this week narrowed the economic cost advantages of stainlessless steel scrap, the overall cost advantages remained prominent, continuing to provide bottom support for stainless steel scrap prices and ensuring the market held up well. Overall, short-term positive factors drove scrap prices moderately higher, but bearish constraints remain in the market. The market has officially entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with frequent news of production cuts and maintenance at stainless steel mills within the industry. Market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, issues such as tight industry tax invoices...

In H1 2026, the Indonesian 10-12% high-grade NPI (delivered to port, tax inclusive) market trended steadily upward, with the SMM average price rising 12% compared to the same period in 2025. Price movements were characterized by “stepwise increases and fluctuations at highs.” Each round of supply-demand imbalance and policy disruption pushed prices onto a higher level.

[SMM Daily Review: Multi-Grade Batch Deals Conclude, Nickel Iron Prices Strengthen in Tiers] June 15 news: SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.75, up 0.01 MoM, while the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.87, up 0.03 MoM.

[SMM Daily Review: Tight Supply Bolsters Willingness to Hold Prices Firm, NPI Price Center Rises] June 15 — SMM's high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.74, up 0.01 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor was 1.84, up 0.02 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI declined WoW by 1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,143.1 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price fell WoW by $0.35/nickel unit to $147.33/nickel unit. This week, the NPI market was overall weak, with futures trends becoming the core factor affecting spot pace. Trading throughout the week was generally light, price divergences were significant, and structural gaming persisted throughout.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Off-Season Demand Combined with Macro Turbulence: Prices and Costs Pulled Back in Tandem, Narrowing Steel Mill Profits This week, stainless steel prices and production costs pulled back in tandem, slightly narrowing steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled coil as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs was 2.23%, while the profit margin based on inventory raw material costs was 1.31%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued to pull back this week. Dragged down by the decline in SHFE nickel prices during the week, coupled with the heightened cost advantage of stainless steel scrap, expected production schedules at stainless steel mills dropped, reinforcing a strong desire to bargain down prices. High-priced transactions encountered resistance, keeping high-grade NPI prices in the doldrums. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 0.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,144 yuan per nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices remained largely stable this week. The pullback in high-grade NPI prices caused the raw material side to weaken, making it difficult to drive prices upward. However, a rebound in stainless steel futures and limited declines in finished product spot prices provided a counterbalancing force that supported prices. The industry has now entered the off-season for consumption, with steel mill production schedules and profits both sliding. Combined with rising uncertainty in the macro environment, bearish risks are gradually accumulating, and prices are expected to face downward pressure going forward. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai region gained 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,450 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices edged down this week. Chrome ore port inventories remained at historically high levels, and prices gradually pulled back, weakening the cost support for high-carbon ferrochrome. Additionally, ferrochrome producers still had profit margins at present, and production declines……

[SMM Daily Commentary: Futures’ Losing Streak Weighs on NPI Spot, Price Center Keeps Moving Lower] June 10 – SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor stood at 2.81, down 0.07 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor was at 1.85, down 0.04 MoM.