BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has raised its 2026 nickel price forecast to $16,600/t, citing growing policy uncertainty and potential supply risks. Against a backdrop of shifting Indonesian policy signals and ongoing supply chain disruptions, the market is paying closer attention to the downside support and medium-term upside potential for nickel prices.

According to CREA report, stainless steel remains the dominant end-use for Indonesia's nickel despite ongoing "green nickel" marketing efforts. In 2025, 83% of nickel output will go to stainless steel versus 17% for EV batteries; by 2030, stainless steel is still projected to account for 51% of supply against 18% for batteries. Demand from the battery sector faces uncertainty as more EVs shift to nickel-free technologies. Indonesia, which produces over half of global refined nickel, faces mounting pressure from stricter environmental regulations and carbon taxes over its coal-powered production, along with broader supply chain risks. Separately, BMI (a Fitch Solutions company) raised its 2026 nickel price forecast to US$16,600/ton, citing policy uncertainty and rising supply risks.