According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, nickel prices are projected to rise 12% year on year in 2026 and a further 3% in 2027, as global consumption growth is expected to outpace supply expansion. The report said that although new nickel processing capacity will continue to come online in Indonesia, tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain utilization rates and keep the market tight. It also noted that further disruptions to sulfur exports from Middle East producers could become an additional upside risk for nickel prices.

[SMM Nickel Brief] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 26.9 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,120 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.14 $/nickel unit WoW to 143.2 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market first declined and then rebounded this week. Sentiment was weak at the beginning of the week, but as Indonesian policies tightened and nickel prices rose, bullish expectations strengthened and the price center gradually shifted upward.

Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

Cost Support Strengthened, Nickel Sulphate Prices Rose As of this Thursday, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average prices rose WoW. Demand side, with Labour Day holiday approaching, some producers recently stockpiled ahead of the holiday. Combined with recovering production schedule expectations for May at some enterprises, acceptance of nickel salt prices increased. Supply side, as nickel prices, MHP payables, and auxiliary material prices all moved up this week, driving a significant rise in spot costs for some producers, nickel salt quoted prices rose accordingly. Looking ahead, recently Inventory, upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index slightly rose from 5.5 days to 5.6 days this week, downstream precursor plant inventory index stayed at 11 days, and integrated enterprise inventory index declined from 7.3 days to 6.8 days. Buy-sell strength, upstream nickel salt smelter Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor rose from 1.9 to 2 this week, downstream precursor plant procurement sentiment factor stayed at 2.9, and integrated enterprise sentiment factor stayed at 2.6. (Historical data available via database query) Nickel Prices Rose Sharply, Nickel Sulphate Costs Increased Cost side, MHP raw material market circulation was tight. Affected by sulphur shortages and HPM revisions, MHP transaction coefficients stayed high this week, with quoted coefficients further rising. Nickel prices, stimulated by news of intermediate product production halts in Indonesia, rose further this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices basically rose WoW, MHP payables held steady, driving nickel salt production spot costs up WoW.

Intermediate Product Production Cuts Materialized, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicator Stayed High This Week

SMM Nickel News, April 30: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive hold this year. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation triggered by tariffs is expected to pull back over the next two quarters. (2) US President Trump said on April 29 that the US and Iran were negotiating by phone, while emphasizing that Iran must clearly commit to completely abandoning nuclear weapons. He will continue the maritime blockade on Iran until Iran agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Spot market: On April 30, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -800-100 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways during the session, closing at 150,540 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.02%. Indonesia's tightening quota policy continued to strengthen, the sulphur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulphur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29, supply side, upstream sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling remained strong, with mainstream quotations concentrated at 1,120-1,150 yuan/nickel unit. Bullish expectations for the market strengthened, and post-holiday quotations are expected to continue rising. Meanwhile, costs of nickel ore raw materials in Indonesia continued to rise, further supporting upstream willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, affected by the deepening of invoice management controls, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted. Downstream steel mills' demand for NPI rose again, coupled with strong restocking willingness among steel mills underpinned by cost support.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, the company’s average NPI selling price rose to $13,201/nickel ton in the March quarter, up 19% from $11,100/nickel ton in the December quarter. Over the same period, costs increased by only about 4%, allowing margins to expand significantly. The company said EBITDA from its RKEF business climbed from $35 million in the previous quarter to $85.8 million in Q1, highlighting a strong recovery in Indonesian NPI profitability as nickel prices improved.

African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating the restart of open-pit operations at its fully-owned Nkomati nickel mine in South Africa after securing a conditional off-take agreement with Sweden's Boliden AB. The mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2021 due to high costs and weak prices, became wholly owned by ARM after it acquired Nornickel's 50% stake in July 2025. Under the new agreement, which remains subject to board approval and responsible sourcing due diligence, Nkomati will supply nickel concentrate to Boliden's Harjavalta smelter in Finland, Europe's only large-scale nickel smelter. This potential restart business case is further bolstered by recent market trends, as nickel prices approach two-year highs driven by policy-related supply cuts in top producer Indonesia.