SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 20–24, 2026. Middle East conflict escalation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply keep the benchmark contract elevated near a two-week high, though it slips RMB 105/mt over the week of July 20–24 as social inventories tip back into a build.

China’s NPI prices have remained firm despite falling production costs because freely available inventories have tightened. FeNi, meanwhile, has followed lower benchmark nickel prices and faced competition from cheaper refined nickel, compressing its premium over NPI. The divergence could reverse as Chinese output rises and Indonesian producers switch capacity back to NPI.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 13–17, 2026. Cooling US inflation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply push the benchmark contract up RMB 450/mt in the week.

[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Nickel Flash] SMM learned that Typhoon Bavi caused limited disruption to the production of domestic high-grade NPI and stainless steel mills, with only a few plants in certain regions temporarily suspending production for 1-3 days, without impacting the overall supply-demand pattern. However, the typhoon led to varying degrees of delay in the shipment schedules of imported nickel pig iron over the past half month. With port shipping gradually resuming, the tightness in spot cargo is expected to ease to some extent in the latter half of the month after nickel pig iron concentrates arrive at the port.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 6–10, 2026. Weak nickel prices and soft off-season demand drag the benchmark contract down RMB 310/mt, breaking below the RMB 14,500/mt support level in the week of July 6–10.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

Downstream Willingness to Purchase Sentiment Remains Weak, Intermediate Product Payables Under Pressure

Indonesia has strengthened oversight of its value-added nickel industry under Ministry of Finance Decree No. 32/MK/BC/2026, implementing Minister of Trade Regulation No. 17/2026. The regulation imposes stricter export controls on HS Code Ex. 7202.60.00, covering ferronickel (FeNi) ingots and lumps (≥8% Ni), Sponge FeNi and Nugget FeNi (≥4% Ni), and low-grade FeNi products (2% ≤ Ni < 4%, Fe ≥75%), including certain Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) products. Exporters must obtain mandatory Surveyor Reports (LS) and export authorizations, while from 1 January 2027, exports will generally be limited to state-owned export enterprises (BUMN Ekspor), subject to approved exemptions.

Chinese Taiwan's upstream stainless steel producers Yusco and Tang Eng Iron Works issued flat July price lists, drawing a line under the consecutive price hikes seen earlier this year. The decision reflects a stronger US dollar, notable New Chinese Taiwan dollar depreciation, and recent adjustments in global nickel values, with LME nickel resting at around US$16,500/ton. Key raw material costs including nickel pig iron and international stainless steel scrap remain elevated, while rising global freight rates add further financial pressure. As the industry enters the traditional Q3 slow season, buyers hold sufficient inventory from first-half purchases, limiting restocking demand. Mills are maintaining steady pricing to balance high input costs against quieter summer market conditions.