【SMM Steel】Potential fuel shortages are raising concerns across the Philippines' nickel, steel, and cement sectors. A national energy emergency was declared on Mar 24 due to global oil supply disruptions. Diesel prices have surged over 80%. Some nickel mines risk suspension. Steel producers are implementing cost controls. Large-scale shutdowns aren't expected yet, but industry remains under pressure.

New Delhi quietly renewed BIS certification waivers through September 2026, even as it talks tough on Chinese overcapacity. The contradiction reveals more about India's industrial gaps than its trade policy convictions

Over the past few days, the Indonesian nickel market has reacted to the government’s announcement of a restricted 2026 RKAB production quota, set at approximately 260–270 million tons. This reduction has sent shockwaves through the industry, sparking widespread concern among both operational and upcoming smelters. Stakeholders are increasingly worried that these tightened supply levels will be insufficient to sustain their long-term production requirements. For the first one, The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has stated that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has agreed to consider revisions to the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting in July. It is believed that the RKAB revisions could increase nickel production quotas by 25% to 30%. According to APNI, the domestic smelter demand based on the capacity is around 380-400 million tons, With the existing RKAB quota at 270 million tons and projected imports from the Philippines at 23 million tons, this 30% adjustment is critical to meeting the national ore deficit. This potential for more quota provides some relief to the market, but there is a second, more pressing issue to consider Another media also stated that The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set a conservative nickel ore production target of 209.08 million tons for 2026, a figure notably lower than the approved RKAB quota of 260–270 million tons. According to Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati of the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, this strategic reduction is intended to preserve national reserves and stabilize global commodity prices As a result, the sudden perception of even deeper quota cuts has fueled confusion across the Indonesian market, which might further intensifying the pressure from already spiking nickel ore prices. I. Indonesia’s Calculated Nickel Ore Demand in 2026 According to SMM’s latest calculations, the total nickel ore requirement for 2026, which includes the demand from NPI, FeNi, Nickel Matte, and MHP, is estimated at approximately 334 million tons, based on the production estimates of smelter's current condition. This sharp increase is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of MHP production, which utilizes higher volumes of limonite ore. This surge in consumption has intensified the pressure on smelters to secure significantly higher mining quotas. II. Current Update and Understanding The Quota Revision? According to current understanding from the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 17 of 2025, citing the 11 th Article Regarding the Amendment of Work Approved Quotas in ESDM, it is stated that: Article 11 (1) Holders of an IUP (Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUPK (Special Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUP for the Production Operation stage, holders of an IUPK for the Production Operation stage, or holders of an IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations may submit one (1) application for an amendment to the Exploration stage RKAB or the Production Operation stage RKAB in each current year. (2) The application for the RKAB Amendment as referred to in paragraph (1) shall be submitted after the holders of the Exploration stage IUP, Exploration stage IUPK, Production Operation stage IUP, Production Operation stage IUPK, or IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations have submitted periodic reports up to the second quarter or no later than July 31st of the current year. SMM observes that RKAB revisions and amendments are standard procedure, as seen in both 2024 and 2025. This year, however, the submission window for revisions is expected to open after June, with a final deadline of July 31st. While the ESDM has not clarified whether the 260–270 million ton target already accounts for these mid-year adjustments, it remains highly likely that these revisions will be sufficient to meet domestic smelter demand. Another Potential Cuts? According to SMM’s further communication with ESDM, the predicted quota for 2026 still remains on 260-270 million tons estimate. Since the further production cuts rumor by ESDM is not in an official setting announcement, it is hereby confirmed that the quota approved of 2026 will not be lower than ESDM’s initial estimate of 260-270 million tons. From SMM's understanding, the target number to be lower than the quota is merely just an estimate of the production target, not necessarily reflecting the actual production numbers. III. Nickel Ore Supply and Demand Given the government’s push to tighten annual quotas, SMM expects this year’s revisions to land at approximately 20%, a more conservative number. Furthermore, nickel ore imports from the Philippines are unlikely to see significant growth compared to 2025, with estimates holding at approximately 19 million tons. This stagnant growth is due to the heavy concentration of Philippine exports to China, coupled with limited domestic mining capacity and a lack of new mining companies . After factoring in import volumes from the Philippines, the nickel ore market is likely to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, especially with potential hurdles like the rainy season slowing down mining operations. Nonetheless, this scenario is much more realistic than the alternative: a massive 50+ million ton deficit that would occur if the total quota were strictly capped at 270 million tons. IV. Conclusion Overall, the signal for significant quota cuts at the start of the year has already triggered a sharp rally in nickel ore prices, which could be seen from the substantial rise in premiums, largely driven by quota reductions at major mining companies and persistent uncertainty among small-to-mid-scale operators. Looking ahead, if the government maintains these restricted levels and fails to approve adequate supplemental quotas, domestic ore prices are poised for further upward momentum, potentially intensifying the cost burden on the downstream smelting sector.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Weakened on Last Trading Day Before Holiday, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Stable Awaiting Post-Holiday Resumption SMM, February 13: SS futures continued to decline and probe lower. On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday, nonferrous metals futures collectively came under pressure and fell, with SS futures also weakening in sync, ultimately closing at 13,860 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the volatility in SS futures and rising high-grade NPI prices ahead of the holiday, most spot traders had already entered the holiday period, logistics and transportation were suspended, transactions were sparse, and prices maintained a stable trend, with the market quietly awaiting the post-holiday resumption. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2604 contract was quoted at 13,765 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 405-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,500 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 14,100 yuan/mt, while in Foshan it was 14,050 yuan/mt; in Wuxi, the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 26,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was also 26,600 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in Wuxi was reported at 25,750 yuan/mt; in both Wuxi and Foshan, the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,800 yuan/mt. On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metals futures, the market showed a relatively stable and fluctuating trend at the beginning of the week, with trading activity experiencing a pullback. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market participants considered avoiding holiday risks, coupled with earlier...

This week, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, but production costs increased, further narrowing the profit margins of stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.58% this week; if calculated using the cost of raw material inventory, the margin reached 1.78%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, SHFE nickel futures were driven higher mid-week by news of nickel mine approvals in Indonesia; high-grade NPI rose in tandem with the movement in SHFE nickel futures and expectations of tight nickel ore supply, which revived trading activity in the market as the Chinese New Year holiday approached—even though stainless steel mills had largely completed their procurement and stockpiling, traders held strong bullish sentiment. As of Friday this week, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 21.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 1,051.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, trading at scrapyards gradually halted as merchants closed for the holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market activity and stable prices. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, this advantage has not yet translated into price movements; although SS futures strengthened on news related to Indonesian nickel mines, the impact on the stainless steel scrap market was limited. Trading in February is expected to remain stagnant, with the key focus after the holiday being the pace of demand recovery; the market overall maintains optimistic expectations. As of Friday this week, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained steady, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. On the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, most stainless steel mills had completed their stockpiling, and trading of high-carbon ferrochrome essentially stalled; given that current prices are already at high levels, they are expected to remain stable before the holiday. As of Friday this week, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, settling at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt, while prices for the same specification in Foshan dropped back slightly to a range of 9,400-9,700 yuan/mt. From the raw material production cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely using stainless steel scrap was approximately 13,417.11 yuan/mt, whereas the cost using entirely high-grade NPI was 14,534.9 yuan/mt. The stainless steel scrap market remained largely flat and stagnant this week, primarily influenced by the Chinese New Year holiday and indirect effects from futures. Stimulated by news related to Indonesian nickel mine approvals, SS futures strengthened, and SHFE nickel rose in tandem, driving expectations of tightening supply in the raw material market, though the direct impact on stainless steel scrap was limited. With the Chinese New Year approaching, most scrap yard traders have taken holidays and left the market, leading to a complete halt in trading. Although the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI further widened this week, this benefit failed to translate into prices due to the trading standstill, leaving stainless steel scrap prices stable with no significant changes in trend. The market overall exhibited a pattern of "supply and demand both halted, prices holding steady," with industry participants generally on holiday and watching, lacking substantive trading support. For most of February, stainless steel scrap trading is expected to remain suspended, with both supply and demand sides in a stagnant state, and no clear drivers for price changes. Looking ahead, the stainless steel scrap market is likely to maintain the current pattern in the short term; in the long term, the key focus will be on post-holiday demand recovery during the "Golden March, Silver April" period, coupled with factors such as reduced Indonesian nickel ore quotas and futures market trends. If demand recovers as expected, it may drive stainless steel scrap prices higher, with the market holding overall optimistic expectations.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Pull Back Again, Stainless Steel Spot Market Trading Halts Pre-Holiday SMM, February 12: SS futures ended their previous strengthening trend and fluctuated downward during the day, closing at 13,970 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite intra-week fluctuations in futures and rising high-grade NPI prices, most spot traders were already on holiday, logistics were suspended, and prices saw little significant change, with daily quotations remaining stable. The most-traded SS futures contract fell. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2604 contract was quoted at 14,080 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 90–290 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled edged 304/2B coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 26,600 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 25,750 yuan/mt in Wuxi; the price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metal futures, the market showed a relatively stable fluctuation trend at the beginning of the week, with trading activity pulling back. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude due to risk aversion and the fact that previous bullish factors had largely been realized. Mid-week, stimulated by news of Indonesian nickel mine approvals being finalized, SHFE nickel futures…

Indonesia's 2026 nickel production might potentially face a severe supply crunch as the government’s 270 million tonne RKAB quota ceiling falls significantly short of the 343 million tonnes required by surging downstream projects. With major mines like Weda Bay facing drastic 71% cuts and administrative bottlenecks paralyzing sales, the market remains in a high-tension deficit, pinning its hopes on a potential July quota revision to stabilize the industry.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened low at $1,974.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session; climbed to a high of $1,996/mt during the European session, and finally closed at $1,994.5/mt, up 0.86%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, touched a high of 16,805 yuan/mt early in the session, then weakened and probed lower to 16,700 yuan/mt due to the dual decline in fundamental supply and demand, finally closing at 16,725 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, hitting a new low since August 2025; following the non-farm data release, traders lowered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The Central Bank of Kenya joined African gold accumulation efforts, planning gold purchases to strengthen buffer capacity. Indonesia plans to cut production at the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council is promoting central state-owned enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power. Ministry of Commerce: The prize pool for the lottery invoice event during the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday will exceed 1 billion yuan. : The Chinese New Year atmosphere is strong in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, most suppliers have suspended quotations, only a few can offer primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, but currently vehicles are scarce, except for a very few ultra-short distances that can barely manage delivery, the vast majority of lead ingots require pick-up after the holiday. Secondary lead spot order prices are sporadic, enterprise transaction willingness is weak, most enterprises have entered the holiday and suspended shipments and quotations. Simultaneously, most downstream enterprises have entered the holiday break, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will also start their holiday this Saturday, downstream inquiries are minimal, and trading in the spot market is light on both sides. Inventory: On February 11, LME lead inventory increased by 200 mt to 232,950 mt. As of February 9, the SMM lead ingot five-region social inventory increased to a five-month high. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, spot quotations continue to decrease, downstream battery enterprises have largely entered the holiday, and lead ingot purchase willingness is sluggish. Supply and demand both decline in the spot market, individual producers offer pre-sale post-holiday pick-up prices, spot order transactions are thin. Downstream battery producers are expected to resume production by late February to early March; post-holiday focus will be on lead ingot inventory buildup and the impact of secondary lead national standard delivery matters on lead price sentiment. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

On February 11, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 31,628 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 31,400-32,500 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day.